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This afternoon, The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, released the 2024 Federal Budget: Fairness for Every Generation. The 2024 federal budget is the government’s plan to build more homes, faster, help make life cost less, and grow the economy in a way that helps every generation get ahead.
Economic Outlook
Canada’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of high interest rates as GDP growth is penciled in at around 3.5% annualized growth for the first quarter of 2024 (7.4% annualized in January, and an estimated 4.9% in February). GDP growth for 2024 is forecasted at 0.7% and 1.9% in 2025. Both the IMF and OECD forecast that Canada will outperform the other G7 countries with regards to economic growth in 2025.
In addition to better-than-expected GDP growth, labour markets were also strong, as employment rose by over 1.1 million since before the pandemic.
Inflation is also making its way to the target, dropping from the peak of 8.1% in June 2022 to about 2.8% in February 2024. However, costs of living remain elevated, particularly for housing and groceries. The Federal Government seeks to balance supporting vulnerable Canadians with fiscal prudence.
Projections show that the budget deficit is expected to be $40 billion in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, and then gradually decrease to approximately $20 billion in 2028-2029. Relative to the other countries, Canada continues to be one of two G7 nations which maintains a AAA rating with 2 of the 3 major credit agencies. Canada is also projected to sustain the lowest net-debt to GDP of the G7, reaching below 1% in 2026-27.
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