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BAM MARKET WRAP
February 25, 2014
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BREAK OUT OR FAKE OUT  
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 

The S&P 500 broke above it's all time high yesterday and set a new intra-day high.  However, it was not able to hold onto its gains;  when the dust settled after the final trades the S&P was just shy of its high set late last year.  Those few points are not insignificant.  The fact that the market sold off into the close after moving through what was previously resistance is a warning flag.  The market has used up a lot of fuel and energy to recover the losses it experienced in January.  It has now largely recovered those losses but it is unclear if there is anything left in the tank.  The markets are technically overbought here.  In order to make any sustained (healthy) push higher the markets need to either consolidate for several days (backing and filling) or pull back some.  Either of these would work off the overbought nature of the markets and set up a possible advance to new sustained highs.  Today and the rest of this week will be key to determining if we are set up for new highs or if we are likely to revisit the lows set in late January. 

 

 

 

  

WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

 

There are a number of things we are watching carefully over the next few weeks.  Chiefly among them are the economy.  The weather has been blamed by pundits and government officials for the lackluster data coming in over the last few weeks.  Lackluster may be too kind as much of the data has been dismal.  With spring around the corner and no weather to blame, the economic measures will be watched carefully.  If stumbles continue, the markets will follow the economy - they always do eventually.  Another thing that bears watching is any subtle changes that the new Fed Chief Janet Yellen indicates.  Her first congressional testimony yielded no great surprises but if the economy continues to falter, all eyes will be on her to save the day.  It is no secret that the Fed wants to continue unwinding all of the quantitative easing it has instituted over the last few years but pressure will build from within and without if the economy turns sour again.  It is interesting to note that not too long ago the Federal Reserve market activity was reserved for market crisis.  Now it seems that the Fed is being asked (and obliging) to intervene in just the natural ebb and flow of the economy.  In our way of thinking, this continues to have danger written all over it.  Finally, and more long term, the fall congressional elections will increasingly create market tension as the market tries to determine if the Republicans can retake the Senate and what that might mean for the last two years of President Obama's term.  There is lots to chew on and it never stops being interesting.  We stand ready to respond to whatever direction the market turns.

 

     

 

HOW WE ARE DOING

 

Our portfolios have continued to do very well so far this year.  All of our portfolios are up modestly while the S&P has struggled to get back to where it started the year.  Our risk averse approach paid dividends in January as we managed to survive the large monthly loss with most of our principal intact.  Since then we have risen with the market.  As we stated in a recent blog post, 1850 on the S&P is a key marker.  If the markets can push higher from here, then it would seem that the January losses were more noise than anything else.  However, if we turn down from here, we are likely to revisit the lows (some 5-6% from where we are now) at least.  As always, time will tell.  Thank you for entrusting us with your financial assets.
 

 

 

 

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Tidbits
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SIX YEARS OFF - Our government's projected tax receipts of $3.023 trillion in fiscal year 2014 are roughly equal to our government's actual spending of $2.983 trillion in fiscal year 2008 (source White House).

 

NO KIDDING?! - 9 years ago (3/02/05), then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told the House Budget Committee that the US government needed to undertake "major deficit-reducing actions." Greenspan said "I fear we may have already committed more physical resources to the baby-boom generation in its retirement years than our economy has the capacity to deliver" (source: Federal Reserve).

 

GOVERNMENT RETIREMENT PLAN? - An average high income American couple that retired in 2010 will pay $765,000 of lifetime Social Security taxes but receive just $693,000 of Social Security benefits, i.e., for every $1 paid in taxes, the couple will receive $0.91 in benefits (source: Urban Institute).

 

WHERE WILL IT BE IN 2040? - The top 10% of US taxpayers paid 68.3% of all federal income tax paid in the country in 2011, the latest year for which tax data is available. The top 10% of US taxpayers paid 49.3% of all federal income tax paid in the country in 1980 (source: Internal Revenue Service).

 

$7.25 AN HOUR - Just 2.5% of American workers (3.6 million out of 143.2 million workers) were earning the minimum wage at the end of 2012 and 51% of them were less than 25 years old (source: Department of Labor).

 

 

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As I mentioned in our last newsletter, the NashBills were dared by our children to keep our "Christmas" tree up all year.  We unveiled our Valentines tree last month and it is now time for the inaugural unveiling of the St. Patrick's Day tree below.

 

 

 

I will be making another visit to Knoxville in the coming weeks.  If you would like to visit with Sam and me please let one of us know and we can schedule a meeting.  For our clients, Fidelity and TD Ameritrade will be mailing out Form 1099 tax statements over the next few days.  Please watch for them in your mailbox.  Finally, we hope all of you have stayed warm this cold and snowy winter and that you find lots of gold coins under your St. Patrick's Day tree!

 

 

Sam and Bo  

 

 

 

 

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below. 

 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

 

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

 

 

 

 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Knoxville Office

Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

Nashville Office
Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright � 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

 

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Bills Asset Management ("BAM") composite performance results represent time-weighted actual performance results for continuously managed BAM accounts, which individual accounts BAM believes to be representative of its investment management process (i.e. mutual funds and exchange traded funds) for each specific strategy during the corresponding time period.  The composite performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other account earnings, and are net of applicable account transaction and custodial charges, and the separate fees assessed directly by each unaffiliated mutual fund and exchange traded fund holding that comprised each account, and the maximum investment advisory fee that the accounts would have incurred (by applying BAM's current investment advisory fee as set forth in its current written disclosure statement) during the corresponding time periods.

 

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