THE ANATOMY OF HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING

by Jean Chodkowski

The equine stars of racing came out over Travers Day Stakes weekend, and we learned again why they run the races. The perfect example of this saying occurred in the Grade 1 Forego, where Jackie’s Warrior attempted to remain undefeated at the Spa. He already set a record earlier in the meet by winning three Grade 1 stakes in three consecutive years. So, how could he lose? Getting caught in speedy early fractions is how he lost. Subsequently, the bettors lost by overlooking the field and who trained those competitors. The other horses in the race may not have been big stars like Jackie, but they were ready for the race by being trained by the best in the business.

Another example was found in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, where last year’s victor, Gufo was overlooked by the betting public. Why? Well, he hasn’t done much this year. Is that any reason to overlook him? Again, probably not. With the victory in consecutive years, we can add him to the list of horses for the course. Which brings us back to Jackie’s Warrior, who clearly is a horse for the course, but as we learned, you have to run the race.

With racing at the top most level, trainers have to be taken into account. The top trainers point to specific races and make sure their charges are peaking at the right time. The problem for we mere race fans is that we don’t know what races they are peaking for. Considering the Grade 1’s on Traver’s Day consisted of many of the BC “Win and You’re In” variety, many trainers will have their horses peak for those races just to get into the event. Whereas, trainers of horses already qualifying will still be pointing to the peaking for the BC.

This is an important distinction to make when we reach those BIG days of BC preps coming up in the fall. Is it frustrating when handicapping these races? You bet it is! It’s all a part of horse racing at its best with the best. We can’t overlook any entry at these levels, no matter how easy it is just going with the apparent horse for the course.