According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook report from the World Bank, almost two-thirds of developing economies that rely on commodity exports may see their growth prospects dimmed as global commodity prices are expected to decline at the fastest rate since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The drop in prices, however, is expected to bring little relief to the nearly 350 million people across the world who face food insecurity. Although food prices are expected to fall by 8% in 2023, they will be at the second-highest level since 1975. Moreover, as of February this year, annual food price inflation is at 20% globally, the highest level over the past two decades. Read more in the linked media statement issued by the World Bank.

The continuing uncertainty of the global economic outlook is reflected in the striking spread of responses to the latest Chief Economists Outlook, released this week. In a survey featured in the report, experts are evenly divided on the prospects for the global economy, with equal shares of 45% saying that a global recession this year is likely or unlikely. Chief economists expect both growth and inflation dynamics to vary widely across regions, while on the economic policy front, 72% predict proactive industrial policy to become an increasingly widespread phenomenon over the next three years. Although a majority do not see recent financial-sector disruption as a sign of systemic vulnerability, further bank failures and turbulence are considered likely this year. Read more in the linked media statement by the World Economic Forum.

Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world were split into two isolated trading blocs centred around China or the United States and the European Union. In this severe scenario, sub-Saharan African economies could experience a permanent decline of up to 4% of real gross domestic product after 10 years according to the International Monetary Fund's estimates – losses larger than what many countries experienced during the global financial crisis. Economic and trade alliances with new economic partners, predominantly China, have benefited the region but have also made countries reliant on imports of food and energy more susceptible to global shocks, including disruptions from the surge in trade restrictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If geopolitical tensions were to escalate, countries could be hit by higher import prices or even lose access to key export markets – about half of the region’s value of international trade could be impacted. Read more in the linked IMF Country Focus.

At the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)’s recent Council meeting, the chairperson, Francois Strydom, highlighted that agribusinesses keep the rural economy running and create employment and livelihood, but require credible partners to sustain the growth and vibrancy of the rural economy. In an interview with Lise Roberts of RSG Landbou, he explained that businesses cannot continue to take risks indefinitely and that many businesses have indicated that they can no longer expose their balance sheet only to South Africa. Please click here to listen to the interview.

The global wheat market has been in focus since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year. Many countries feared that they would not meet domestic needs because of supply constraints brought by the war in one of the major producing regions. The price surge after the invasion was also a significant challenge for importing countries such as South Africa. The Black Sea Grain Deal brokered between the United Nations representatives, the Turkish government, and the Russian and Ukrainian governments to allow the movement of grains out of the Black Sea region has brought much-needed relief from possible wheat shortages. Wheat prices have since moderated markedly. For example, at the end of April 2023, South Africa's wheat spot price traded around R6 650 per tonne, down 10% y/y. In the linked article, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses the prospects of the winter crop season.

Africa is a continent that struggles with high unemployment, poverty, and low economic growth. Growth in agriculture is two to three times more effective at reducing poverty than an equivalent amount of growth generated outside agriculture. However, the strategic role of the sector as a driver to advance economic development has been hampered by a number of exogenous factors. The Russia-Ukraine war and Covid-19 continue to compromise the resilience of its agricultural sector. These major challenges come against the backdrop of existing problems that have already been affecting the agricultural sector in the past. In the linked blog post, Wandile Sihlobo shares some of the remarks he made on the challenges facing the continent's agricultural sector at the Africa-Israel Agriculture Dialogue organised by the Brenthurst Foundation and the American Jewish Committee

The Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The harvest improvement is primarily on the back of expected large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season. About 8,4 million tonnes is white maize, with 7,5 million tonnes being yellow maize. A crop of 15,9 million tonnes implies that South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic needs of roughly 11,4 million tonnes and remain with about 3,0 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year that starts in May. Please click here to listen to this week's podcast by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.

In April, the Competition Commission issued an unsolicited statement. It concerns alleged opportunistic behaviour that the commission observed with regard to food prices and possible collusion between companies. "The commission erred in more than one way with its one-sided report on food prices in South Africa. Among other things, it did not take into account the prices of raw materials and the cost of load-shedding." Agbiz Grain general manager Wessel Lemmer discusses this subject in the linked article, first published in Landbouweekblad.

The World Economic Forum Growth Summit 2023 which took place in Geneva earlier this week, coincided with a time of economic uncertainty, as global transformations disrupt industries, labour markets and livelihoods. Global growth is forecast to slow in 2023, and almost 1,1 billion jobs are likely to be disrupted in the coming decade. “We are facing a critical moment for the global economy, as the past year has accelerated trends of rising inequality, sharpening polarisation, and both threats and opportunities from technology to jobs," says Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the World Economic Forum (WEF). "The Growth Summit will bring together leaders to shape a new vision for inclusive growth and advance initiatives to empower people with future-ready knowledge and skills. We must shape a recovery and a future economy that works for all." Read more in the linked WEF media statement.

Australia’s table grape sector has made great strides during the last 10 years, raising production by more

than a third and exports by 50%. Despite two years of declining production and exports due to Covid-19 constraints, investments in vineyards prior to and during the pandemic have set the industry on a path to continue its upward trend. With exports on par with Egypt and the European Union and effectively competing with other Southern Hemisphere suppliers in Asia, Australia has become a significant world player. Read more in the linked report by the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agriculture Service.

Recently, container shipping has shown positive signals with rising spot rates, charter rates and durations, brisk secondhand ship sales, increasing asset prices, and reduced idled tonnage. However, Drewry, a leading container shipping consultancy, has warned on Tuesday that these signals will not continue to be positive for much longer. “We would be confident if the foundations for recovery were in place but we just don’t see them,” said Simon Heaney, editor of Drewry’s Container Forecaster report, during a presentation on his company’s latest sector outlook. Without those building blocks in place, we view the uptick in spot rates and charter-hire prices as a transitory illusion. Read more in the linked article, first published on freightwaves.com.

The United States Department of Agriculture(USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Pretoria forecasts sugar cane production in Eswatini will increase by 1,5% to 5,6 million MT in MY 2023/24, based on increased available irrigation water, expanded planted area, and a return to trend yields. The Pretoria post forecasts sugar production will increase by 4% to 652 057 MT in MY 2023/24, based on an expected rebound in the volume of sugar cane deliveries to mills and improvement in the recovery rate. The Pretoria post expects Eswatini will fully utilise its allocated US tariff rate quota in MYs 2023/24 and 2022/23. Read more in the linked report issued by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

South Africa's Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Barbara Creecy, has released the 8th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report, providing a detailed record of the country's annual greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2020, which will be shared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The report encompasses greenhouse gas sources and removals by sinks, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen, and is designed to support domestic and international reporting obligations while tracking South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Read more in the linked media statement.

Adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, load-shedding, long-service awards, roadshows, and congestion continue to disrupt port operations, while cable theft incidents also persist; however, backlogs at the Port of Cape Town have been cleared, Durban Container Terminal's Pier 1 will be operational on 1 May 2023, and vessels are berthing at the Port of Durban upon arrival when weather permits, though crane shortages remain a concern. Although containerised cargo industry saw growth in February, transpacific container volumes have dropped significantly in Q1 2023; however, there has been a decline in port congestion, with around 2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containership capacity waiting at global ports presently, but freight rates are anticipated to fluctuate in the upcoming weeks due to market volatility and unfinished contractual capacity. Read more in the latest BUSA Covid-19 Cargo Movement Update.

It will be relatively warm during the next few days with isolated to scattered thundershowers on a daily basis over the summer rainfall region, favouring large parts of the grain production region. Rainfall totals are not expected to be high and should not negatively impact access to fields, especially given recent drier conditions. With rainfall in the form of thundershowers and with temperatures expected to be above normal, it is likely that the rainfall will not have a significant negative impact on ripening and on harvest activities. In general, conditions will mostly be favourable given the state of the summer grain growing season. Some thundershowers over the interior may produce hail, mainly due to atmospheric temperatures being relatively low by this time of the year. However, there are no indications of widespread severe weather according to current forecasts and hail occurrence should not exceed what is typical for this time of the year. For more details, please click here to access the latest edition of Cumulus, published by AgriSeker.

The SA Cheese Festival, South Africa's only cheese-focused event, is returning to Stellenbosch this year with new owners and dates, running from Friday 22 to Monday 25 September 2023 at Sandringham Estate over the Heritage Day long weekend. The festival's new owners, a group of private investors and the DGTL Marketing Group, have revamped the event with a focus on cheese, wine, and family entertainment, leveraging their extensive experience in organizing, marketing, and presenting lifestyle events across the country to deliver a sensational experience. Read more in the linked media statement.

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.