India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed inviting the African Union (AU) to become a permanent member of the G20, emphasising the need for a collective African voice in the group. The G20, as a premier global economic governance forum, plays a crucial role in addressing global challenges. Africa, home to 33 of the world's least-developed countries, faces significant hurdles in achieving sustainable development. The AU's full participation in the G20 could increase the group's legitimacy and provide a platform for addressing issues facing the African continent. However, capacity building and ensuring the AU's effective engagement will be essential for its meaningful participation. India and South Africa, both leaders in advocating for Global South issues, have cooperated on various fronts, emphasising the importance of unity in addressing global challenges and promoting the South's voice in international forums. Preserving the G20 as a bridge between North and South, despite growing geopolitical rivalries, is crucial for addressing transnational crises like climate change, poverty, and inequality on a global scale. With four leading Global South countries presiding over the G20 from 2022 to 2025, there's a unique opportunity to prioritize development and vulnerable voices in global discussions. Click here to read full article first published in the Summit Edition of India and The World Journal.

Emerging markets and low-income economies face a $3 trillion annual funding gap until 2030 for development and climate goals. New research suggests these nations can increase tax-to-GDP ratios by up to 9%, aiding government services, financial growth, and sustainable development. Progress in tax-to-GDP ratios has been slow, with varying success across countries. Low-income nations could raise ratios by 6.7%, further by 2.3% through institution improvements. Emerging markets can boost ratios by 5%, plus 2-3% through institutional enhancements. International corporate tax initiatives are unlikely to meet revenue needs significantly. To build tax capacity, governments must improve tax design, broaden bases, reform expenditures, and professionalise tax officials. Institutional improvements and interagency coordination are crucial to enhance state capacity and public acceptance, fostering progress towards sustainable development. Click here to read full article first published on IMF Blog. 

Notable figures, including Deborah Meaden, Rick Stein, and Chris Packham, are backing a campaign to encourage UK supermarkets to provide fairer deals to the country's struggling growers. Research by organic veg box company Riverford reveals that nearly half of British fruit and vegetable growers fear they may go out of business within a year, with many blaming supermarkets and their buyers. Growers accuse supermarkets of delayed payments, opting for cheaper overseas alternatives, last-minute order cancellations or changes, and overly complex specifications for fruit and vegetables. An open letter signed by over 100 figures, including industry bodies and celebrities, calls for fairer treatment of farmers by major supermarkets. Click here to read full article first published on fruitnet.com.

South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 8,2% in August 2023 from 10% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are similar to the previous month, mainly bread and cereals; meat; fish; oils and fats; milk, eggs and cheese; and vegetables. Our view of the path forward remains unchanged from what we communicated last month. In essence, we stated that while there are renewed risks in global agriculture, such as India's decision to ban specific categories of rice exports and the Black Sea Grain Deal Initiative that facilitated grains and oilseeds exports from Ukraine terminated, and domestically the increases in fuel prices, we are still optimistic that South Africa's consumer food inflation will continue to slow throughout the year into 2024. The products that could underpin the slowing food inflation trend will likely remain similar to those in the past few months. Notably, red meat prices, which have softened at the farm level, should continue on this trend at the retail level in the coming months. Fruit and vegetable prices should remain relatively affordable because of improved domestic supplies. We may, however, see temporary blips in the prices of products such as potatoes due to seasonality. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on businesslive.co.za.

We are three weeks into the start of South Africa's 2023/24 summer crop production season. The uncertainty regarding the intensity of the El Niño weather event as well as the, possible higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall that this could bring is still a concern. However, the latest message from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) through their Seasonal Climate Watch on 28 August 2023 was encouraging, stating that "the multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during mid-spring (Sep-Oct-Nov) and late-spring (Oct-Nov-Dec)." The Weather Service added that “the early-summer (Nov-Dec-Jan), however, indicates below-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country and above-normal rainfall for the north-east." This means that some regions of the country, mainly central to western, may not have a similar start of the season to the eastern areas. Still, the broad sentiment is that showers will likely support crop germination during the beginning of the 2023/24 production season. This is also an encouraging message for horticulture and livestock, as the rains will help production conditions in these subsectors. Click here to read full article by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo.

After remaining below the 50-point mark for three consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) rebounded by 6 points from Q2 2023 to 50 in Q3 2023. This improvement implies that agribusinesses are cautiously adapting to the challenging operating business conditions in the country emanating from the numerous long-standing challenges such as deteriorating infrastructure, failing municipalities, intensified geopolitical tension, and persistent episodes of load-shedding. The readings above the neutral 50-point mark imply that agribusinesses are optimistic about business conditions in South Africa. This survey was conducted between the last week of August and the first week of September, covering businesses operating in all agricultural subsectors across South Africa. Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo and click here to watch discussion on Newzroom Afrika.

Two essential data releases in the global agricultural environment in the past two weeks painted a promising picture of global agricultural supplies and prices — the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations’s Global Food Price Index and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published by the United States department of agriculture. The Global Food Price Index averaged 121.4 points in August 2023, down 2% from July, reversing the rebound registered last month. The index is now 24% below its peak reached in March 2022. The drop reflected declines in the price indices for dairy products, vegetable oils, meat and cereals. While Russia’s refusal to renew the Black Sea Grain Deal and India’s decision to ban the exports of some rice categories are disruptive, these price movements reflect an environment of abundant supplies globally. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on mg.co.za here.

South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to$3.4bn in the second quarter of this year, up by 0.1% year on year, according to data from Trade Map. Despite challenges in key export markets such as the EU in the case of citrus, the products that dominated the export list this quarter were citrus, maize, apples and pears, wine, sugar, soybeans, wool, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, nuts and grapes. Importantly, this good export performance was not only a function of price, but also improved volumes. The prices of some agricultural products have declined notably from 2022 levels. The improvement in agricultural exports also partly demonstrates the results of continued collaboration between the industry and Transnet to improve the logistics at the ports. However, more work is needed to improve the efficiencies. The South African agricultural industry has established forums to continuously engage with Transnet and enhance communication about problems at the ports so that the response can be swift enough to drive the exports of high-value and perishable products. Read full article by Wandile Sihlobo first published on dailymaverick.co.za here.

The South African government voiced concerns about the higher food prices and instructed the cabinet's economic cluster to implement a food security plan to cushion consumers. We have yet to see the government's strategy and approach. But it is worth highlighting that South Africa's consumer food price inflation has started to decelerate from the high levels of 14,4% we saw in March 2023. In July 2023, consumer food inflation was recorded at 10,0%, from 11,1% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration in recent months are primarily bread and cereals; meat; fish; and oils and fats, which are crucial for low-income households. Notably, as the cabinet's economic cluster prepares to start its work, it is vital to have a common understanding of the key drivers of food prices in recent years and an appreciation that this is a global challenge, not unique to South Africa. For example, two primary drivers of global food prices existed before the covid-19 pandemic. Click here to listen to the latest Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

Agbiz Grain recently hosted the Grain & Oilseeds Value Chain Symposium, focusing on "BUILDING CERTAINTY – CREATING SUSTAINABILITY." This event brought together key players in the South African grain and oilseeds market. Agbiz Grain members play an important role in the efficient functioning of the market, as they handle and store 70% of production and own 98% of JSE-registered storage sites. The symposium aimed to address the challenges and opportunities facing the industry. It highlighted the sector's value chain challenges in 2023/24. The discussions included topics like sustainability and return on investment in the storage sector, future challenges such as access to stock and price convergence, the importance of traceability and regulatory compliance in grain storage, and strategies to ensure the insurability and financial security of the storage sector. To gain valuable insights from the event, you can click here to watch video recaps of the symposium and click here for more information.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly is a unique magazine featuring distinctive articles and content designed to keep the grain handling and storage industry informed of the latest news and issues of managerial and operational importance. The August issue focusses on the current topic of conversation in the grain industry – traceability. This subject will be front and foremost during the Agbiz Grain Symposium and these articles set the table for the debate and discussion at the symposium. Experts in this issue also address aspects relating to procedures surrounding injuries on duty as well as the latest developments around employment equity regulations. Also in the August issue are articles on the latest procedural requirements for water use licence applications as well as an overview of some new and unique approaches to physical grain trading. We look at losses in the malting barley storage sector and discuss Australia and America's views on grain traceability, along with a local perspective on the same. Download your free version of this exciting publication here. 

Effective supervision is as crucial as risk management, governance, and regulations in ensuring the stability of the financial sector. Recent banking sector turbulence has raised concerns about risk management practices, regulatory adequacy, and the effectiveness of banking supervision. The paper "Good Supervision: Lessons from the Field" reflects on lessons learned from banking crises in the US and Switzerland, emphasising the pivotal role of supervision. Good supervision is akin to constructing a sturdy structure, requiring independence, accountability, clear mandates, legal powers, resources, and situational awareness. Progress has been made in risk monitoring, stress testing, and business model analysis, but many jurisdictions lack independent supervisors with clear mandates and resources. To improve supervision, four key strategies are highlighted: adopting a systematic approach to high-risk scenarios, allocating resources to smaller banks, training supervisors to focus on governance and risk management, and establishing clear decision-making processes. Policymaker support is also vital. Click here to read full article first published on IMF Blog.

The US-South Africa Trade and Investment Executive Dialogue recently took place, establishing an annual US-South Africa Trade and Investment Forum to foster commercial ties between the two nations. President Cyril Ramaphosa encouraged more US companies to invest in South Africa, emphasising the country's role as an economic hub in Africa. The dialogue was hosted by Business Unity South Africa (Busa) and the US Chamber of Commerce Africa Business Centre (USAfBC) during the United Nations General Assembly. The event highlighted the importance of private sector and government partnerships in promoting shared growth and prosperity, with a focus on accelerating economic growth. Click here to read full article first published on engineeringnews.co.za.

The United States is facing a significant drop in peach and nectarine production for 2023/24, with forecasts down to 574,000 metric tons. Adverse weather conditions in top producing states, including rain delays in California, and damaging freezes in South Carolina and Georgia, have driven supplies to their lowest levels since at least 1982/83. This trend follows a continuous decline in production since 2011/12, with a 30% drop between 2013/14 and 2022/23. California, which contributes 80% of U.S. output, has seen the most significant decline, particularly in Clingstone peaches used for processing. Despite a short-term rebound expected, the long-term trend remains uncertain. Click here to read full report by US Department of Agriculture.

This update discusses the challenges facing South Africa's supply chain and international trade. Commercial ports are grappling with record-low container handling due to adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and congestion. Delays at Pier 1 and Pier 2 occurred because of strong winds. Challenges like cable theft and vandalism have also hindered operations. In the global maritime industry, Shanghai remains the top container port, while some European and American ports are experiencing reduced throughput. Carriers are struggling to manage supply, leading to lower capacity utilisation and rates on the US East Coast and in the Mediterranean. In air freight, international cargo to and from South Africa increased slightly, with domestic cargo also seeing a slight uptick but remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Border crossing times at South African borders and in the greater SADC region have increased significantly. Efficient port operation and equipment maintenance are crucial for the logistics sector, but there is a pressing need for investment in port facilities and equipment. Transnet has requested more flexible procurement laws, emphasizing the urgency of addressing these issues to prevent economic setbacks similar to those experienced in 2009. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

A new report by the Global Coalition of Fresh Produce (GCFP) reveals that approximately 60% of commercially traded fresh fruits and vegetables worldwide are now being sold at a loss or break-even price. This situation has arisen due to a significant increase in production and operating costs experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The report highlights unprecedented cost spikes in areas such as fertilisers, construction, fuel, shipping rates, and electricity. While some selling price increases were implemented, they were insufficient to offset the surge in costs, leaving the majority of the industry in a precarious financial position. Furthermore, 80% of respondents delayed or cancelled investments, indicating that the cost impacts will persist for years. The report urges collaboration to address these challenges in the fresh produce supply chain. Read full article first published on fruitnet.com here.

The global cotton production landscape for the 2023/24 season is marred by adverse weather conditions affecting four of the top cotton-producing countries: China, India, Pakistan, and the United States. China's Xinjiang region, which produces 90% of the country's cotton, faces extremely hot and dry conditions. India and Pakistan are grappling with rainfall shortages crucial for cotton boll development, potentially reducing yields and quality. In the United States, West Texas suffers from insufficient rainfall and high temperatures, impacting soil moisture. These factors led to a 550,000-tonne reduction in the USDA's estimated cotton production. China's disinflation poses further complications, potentially affecting cotton exports and causing global economic concerns. Despite these challenges, production remains ahead of consumption, ensuring sufficient cotton supply, likely maintaining prices around 80-90 cents per pound for the season. Click here to read full report by Cotton SA.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.