The Group of Twenty (G20) needs to take strong action on the weak global economy, high inflation, and rising economic fragmentation. Joint efforts are crucial to address these challenges, including debt vulnerabilities, climate change, and limited concessional financing. While global growth is projected at 2,8% in 2023, recent indicators show mixed results. Tackling inflation requires careful monetary policy management, along with fiscal tightening and targeted measures. The medium-term global economic outlook remains bleak due to economic fragmentation and pressing global challenges. The G20's leadership is vital to ensure a well-equipped and representative IMF, providing support to vulnerable countries. Strong multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank's IDA are crucial for economic stability and income convergence. IMF reforms, increased resources, and a focus on climate-related shocks are necessary. The G20 must provide strong leadership to address the world's challenges effectively. Read the full article first published on IMF Blog here. 

UN secretary-general António Guterres expresses regret over Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which facilitated the export of 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain to global markets via Black Sea ports. This decision is expected to impact global food security, particularly in developing countries. The Black Sea Grain Initiative and the Memorandum of Understanding with Russia were vital for reducing food prices by over 23% since last year. Despite efforts to keep the deal alive, Russia's decision remains unchanged, leading to a withdrawal of security guarantees for ships navigating the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The UN remains committed to advancing global food security and price stability. The UN General Assembly president Csaba Kőrösi calls for dialogue resumption and an end to the conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the deal's significance in alleviating the food crisis for millions worldwide. Read the full article first published on UN News here.

It is disheartening to see how many South Africans, including parliamentarians, have forgotten the simple and influential role the Land and Agricultural Development Bank (Land Bank) played in South African agriculture. The former minister of agriculture, Derek Hanekom, summarised this role nicely in his foreword to the bank’s 1997 annual report: The Land Bank was a conduit for cheap money for mortgage finance for farmers, for production finance to co-operatives, and for the liquidity of the marketing boards. The Land Bank, established in 1912, had a narrow mandate for many decades. Its focus was on mortgages for white farmers to acquire farmland. It also provided wholesale finance to agricultural cooperatives and marketing boards who on-lend production (short-term) finance to individual farmers. Click here to read the full article by Prof. Johann Kirsten and Wandile Sihlobo for theconversation.com.

The start of this week has been eventful in global agriculture. The focus is on the Black Sea, an essential region for grain supplies although engulfed in the Russia–Ukraine war. The exports of grain, specifically from Ukraine, were disrupted when Russia invaded the country in February 2022. But the rising concerns about global food security resulted in the United Nations and Turkey brokering a deal in July 2022 between Russia and Ukraine to allow a safe grain movement from Ukraine to the world market while the war continued. But this week, Russia halted the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The reasons are unclear, but the attack on Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimea peninsula to the Russian mainland angered Russia. But this is possibly not the only reason. Prior to this week’s events, Russia wanted to increase the exports of ammonia and other fertiliser material to the world market and this required the EU to reconnect the Russian Agriculture Bank to the global electronic payment network, SWIFT. Russia demanded that this be done for them to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had not happened. Click here to read the full article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo. Or you can click here to watch a Morning Live interview with Wandile Sihlobo and Agri SA president Jaco Minnaar discussing the implications of Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

This past week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly flagship report, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The report's focus has shifted from the 2022/23 season to the 2023/24 season, currently under way in the northern hemisphere and starting around October in the southern hemisphere. The past few weeks, specifically in the US, they brought drier weather conditions, leading to fears of a potential downward revision in the crop forecasts. But the latest estimates still present a positive picture of the 2023/24 global agricultural prospects. For example, the 2023/24 global wheat production is forecast at 797 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. The larger harvest is anticipated in the EU region, the US, Canada, China, India, and Turkey. As a result of the expected large harvest, the 2023/24 season's global maize stocks could increase by 1% year-on-year to 270 million tonnes. Read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed in June 2023, recorded at 11,1% from 12,0% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are mainly bread and cereals; meat; fish; milk, eggs and cheese; and oils and fats. While there are renewed risks in global agriculture, such as India threatening to ban the exports of rice and the Black Sea Grain Initiative that facilitated grains and oilseeds exports from Ukraine terminated, we are still positive that South Africa's consumer food inflation will continue to slow during this second half of the year. The products that could underpin the slowing food inflation trend will be similar to those in June. Notably, red meat prices, which have softened at the farm level, should continue on this trend at the retail level in the coming months. Fruit prices, although no longer in deflation, should remain affordable because of improved domestic supplies. The decline in 'oils and fats' products is in line with a softening price trend we are seeing in the global environment, as South Africa still imports its palm oil usage. For example, in June 2023, the FAO's vegetable oil price index was at 117 points, down 22% y/y. Read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo here.

The livestock and poultry industry has had a difficult last few years. Various external shocks including animal diseases and rising input costs – yellow maize and soybean prices – made for a challenging operating environment for many farmers and agribusinesses. While the spread of diseases may be slowing, and organised agriculture and government continued to collaborate to address biosecurity risks, concerns about renewed increases in animal feed prices persist. This is particularly the case in the El Niño period, which might result in a lower harvest compared to recent seasons of bumper crops. Click here for more details and to listen to the latest episode of the Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.

The Indian G20 Presidency drives clearer crypto asset policies, but more action is needed. Recent failures highlighted the urgency for investor protection. Policymakers must address the broader implications of crypto assets, including stablecoins' potential impact on economies. three key pillars were proposed: macro-policy foundation, clear legal treatment, and effective implementation. Recommendations include robust domestic institutions, no legal tender status for crypto assets, and strong AML/CFT rules. Coordination and international collaboration are essential for effective policies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports G20 with joint synthesis paper and capacity building. Comprehensive measures safeguard monetary sovereignty and promote stability in the digital age. Read the full article first published on IMF Blog here.

China's efforts to diversify African agricultural product imports are set to boost bilateral trade and investment opportunities. China and several African countries, including Madagascar, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia, proposed a liaison mechanism for SPS cooperation to align inspection and quarantine standards and facilitate agricultural food exports to China. The initiative signifies a significant step in promoting trade and economic cooperation. The trade value of agricultural products between China and Africa has been steadily growing, with an average annual growth rate of 5,8%. The proposed mechanism aims to ensure the safety and quality of products while reducing trade barriers and enhancing market access. African countries see this move as an opportunity to stimulate agricultural production, generate employment, and boost economic growth. Recently, China's largest food trader, COFCO Group, imported feed corn from South Africa, marking a positive development in agricultural trade between the two regions. Read the full article first published on chinadaily.com here.

The BRICS Business Council aims to address trade imbalances and promote economic growth among Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Ahead of the BRICS Summit, South Africa's chairman of the council, Stavros Nicolaou, highlighted the need for more exports of finished products and less importation. The trade among BRICS nations has grown by 44% from 2017 to 2021. The summit's theme revolves around Africa and BRICS promoting multilateralism, with South Africa playing a key role in leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance trade and investment in the continent. Additionally, discussions on a new BRICS currency challenging the US dollar as the world's reserve currency are ongoing, but it is in the early stages and may take years to develop. Read the full story, first published on iol.co.za here.

The World Meteorological Organization has declared the onset of the first El Niño event in seven years, which is expected to be of moderate strength. El Niño brings extreme weather patterns, such as droughts and wildfires in some regions, and floods in others. It can have complex global impacts, affecting agricultural production and food prices, although evidence suggests relatively modest and ambiguous global price impacts. However, local effects can be severe, particularly for crops grown in concentrated regions. El Niño-induced food availability and affordability issues may lead to social consequences, including conflict and hunger. While crop failures in one region may be offset by production in others, some people will still bear the direct costs. El Niño's wider economic impacts and potential societal issues, such as famine and conflicts, are concerns. The effects of El Niño will exacerbate existing socio-economic conditions in some countries. Read the full article by Prof. David Ubilava first published on theconversation.com here.

Leaders from every segment of the fresh produce supply chain will convene at Cape Town’s Century City Conference Centre for the International Fresh Produce Association’s (IFPA’s) Southern Africa Conference, the largest fresh produce conference and trade show in Southern Africa from 1 to 3 August. “The Southern Africa Conference is a truly vibrant and engaging event where growers, exporters, retailers, wholesalers, market agents, and many more throughout the supply chain convene to make strategic connections and exchange new ideas,” said Stephanie van der Walt, regional manager for the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) Southern Africa. “This year, we’re thrilled that attendees will get to enjoy a variety of new networking and education opportunities as they gain first-hand insights into global trends and business opportunities in the produce industry.” Conference sessions will include the state of the industry, perspectives on the industry’s future, global trends and African strategies for optimising fresh produce logistics, global supply chain disruptions and how they are being addressed by the Global Produce Coalition, and the top 10 global consumer trends for 2023. Click here to read the full media statement by IFPA.

The Citrus Growers’ Association of South Africa (CGA) welcomes the recent update by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture (WCDoA) on the estimated damage to agricultural infrastructure by floods in the province in mid-June. The CGA trusts the National Disaster Management Centre will now act with the urgency that the situation requires and declare the floods a provincial disaster. It is crucial that funding and support are made available to the stricken farmers and communities as soon as possible. The CGA has written to the Western Cape minister of agriculture, Ivan Meyer, to thank him and his department for their swift response to the floods. The association has also offered any assistance, should it be needed, in securing a rapid declaration of disaster. Click here to read the full statement by Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF)'s newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.