The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032 assesses the 10-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets, considering economic risks, uncertainty, and high energy prices. Rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices, as demonstrated in this year's outlook. The report analyses the impact of disputes with the US on the South African economy through currency, trade, investment, and liquidity channels. Balancing economic and political interests is crucial for addressing poverty, unemployment, and inequality. The outlook incorporates improved estimates for food consumption and highlights the rapid expansion of livestock production in low- and middle-income countries. Biofuel demand is expected to vary across different markets, and investments in technology and infrastructure are essential for global crop and livestock production growth. Efforts to mitigate agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change are crucial. Trade in agricultural commodities is projected to grow alongside production, emphasising the importance of a well-functioning multilateral trading system. Click here to read the full report.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa Lesetja Kganyago, an accomplished figure in the world of central banks, delivered the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) 2023 Michel Camdessus Central Bank Lecture in Washington, DC. The lecture is titled, "The contribution of capital flows to sustainable growth in emerging markets". This annual lecture series not only emphasises the IMF's dedication to collaboration with central banks of member countries but also provides an essential platform for discussions on current and relevant topics in the field of central banking. To further enrich the experience, the lecture will be followed by an engaging one-on-one conversation with the IMF's longest-serving managing director, Kristalina Georgieva. Click here to watch Governor Kganyago speak, as he delivers profound insights into the world of central banking and its implications on the global economy. 

The South African fruit industry is determined to achieve full transformation by 2038, ensuring profitability and sustainability for black growers. Fruit SA, equipped with tools to measure progress, aims to involve black individuals at every stage of the fruit industry value chain on an equitable basis. Fruit SA CEO Fhumulani Ratshitanga emphasises the need to showcase the industry's transformation efforts to stakeholders and stresses the importance of collaboration with the government. Adopting a transformation strategy in 2018, Fruit SA provides clarity and encourages all stakeholders to actively contribute to the process. Lerato Moilwa, owner of Batlhako Temo Primary Cooperative in Limpopo, praises Fruit SA for assisting her through industry challenges via relevant associations such as the Citrus Growers' Association Grower Development Company. Click here to read the full article first published on freshplaza.com.

The FAO Global Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, averaged 122 points in June 2023, down by 1% from the previous month and as much as 23% below the peak it reached in March 2022. The month-on-month decline in the index in June reflected drops in the indices for sugar, vegetable oils, cereals and dairy products. Essentially, these commodities' price decline reflects large global supplies and the expected good crop in the upcoming 2023/24 season. In the near term, specifically on cereals and vegetable oils, the increased seasonal supplies from ongoing harvests in Argentina and Brazil have been the major factor behind the decline in prices, and the long-term production prospects for the 2023/24 season are positive and supportive of a declining trend in prices. Moreover, the large grain supplies in Russia, where the wheat export tax decreased in June, continued to weigh on prices. Regarding vegetable oils, the relatively lower global prices of palm and sunflower oils were the major drivers of the continued decline in this price index. The major driver behind the price direction of these commodities is the large global supply and the subdued demand from the specific importing regions. Read full article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo here.

Surprisingly, South Africa’s agricultural machinery industry reported solid sales in June 2023. For example, tractor sales were up by 13% year-on-year, with 930 units sold, and combine harvester sales were at 64 units, up 28% year-on-year. One has to ask what underpins these sales in a year when agriculturalists have been vocal about the pressures of rising input costs and interest rates on farmers. What I think we are seeing here are the deliveries of the machinery orders that were made in the past few months when farmers were still enjoying the gains of the past few seasons’ ample harvests combined with higher prices, thus improving farm profitability. South Africa is an importer of some of the major tractors and combine harvesters, and these deliveries could take time, especially with frequent problems at the ports. Hence, I suspect we are seeing orders for the past months, reported in June. Read the full opinion piece by Wandile Sihlobo, first published on mg.co.za here.

South Africa’s agricultural sector had a rough start to the year regarding production and exports. The excessive rains brought production challenges that delayed the summer crop planting activity by roughly a month but later improved. Regarding exports, the slowing agricultural commodity prices reduced profitability from the levels farmers enjoyed a year ago, specifically grains and oilseeds. Moreover, some logistical challenges persisted in the Port of Cape Town and thus negatively affecting the table grapes and various horticultural products exports. Still, this was not as harsh as in the previous years. The cooperation between organised agriculture groups and Transnet has helped improve agricultural export efficiencies somewhat. With that said, there is still room for improvement, which is essential for all the ports as South Africa has an export-oriented agricultural sector. Click here to listen to Agricultural Market Viewpoint by Wandile Sihlobo.

Hon. Rebecca Miano, Kenya's cabinet Secretary for East African Community and Arid and Semi-arid Lands, emphasises the vital role of a vibrant private sector in driving economic growth at national, regional, and continental levels in Africa. The private sector accounts for 80% of Africa's production, two-thirds of investment, and three-quarters of credit, employing 90% of the working-age population. A robust private sector is crucial for Africa's sustainable and economic transformation, driving growth and creating wealth and employment opportunities. Hon. Miano urges African regional economic communities to increase investment in agricultural and extractive industries through value addition, promoting regional value chains for intra-African trade, economic integration, and industrial development. She highlights the importance of harmonising trade policies, reducing non-tariff barriers, improving transportation infrastructure, and promoting skills development and technology transfer to drive Africa's integration in trade and investment. Click here to read the full press release by The East African Community.

Hunger and undernourishment continue to be major challenges in Africa, with over 340 million Africans experiencing food insecurity. Genetically modified (GM) crops have shown potential in addressing low agricultural productivity and food insecurity by increasing yields, developing disease-resistant crops, and creating drought-tolerant varieties. However, the adoption of GM technology in Africa is limited, with only a few countries allowing commercial production and importation. This is partly due to the European Union's strict regulations on GM products and concerns over safety and cost. A framework called F-3 has been developed to guide the adoption of GM crops, starting with cotton and gradually progressing to feed and food. This approach has facilitated GM crop trials in over 30 African countries. GM technology has already contributed to global food security by increasing yields and reducing costs. It offers higher nutrient content, environmental benefits, and potential solutions to global warming. Despite the benefits, obstacles to GM crop adoption in Africa include strict regulations, limited research capacity, safety concerns, and political opposition. To promote uptake, increased investment in research, training of scientists, local involvement in decision-making, information exchange, and science communication are crucial. Aligning policy, research, and communication can help ensure the safety of GM foods and contribute to ending hunger and malnutrition. Read full article first published on theconversation.com here.

Discussions on green and climate finance in Africa focus on the challenges of scaling up financing and the issue of layered risk. The continent requires significant climate financing, but there is a shortfall in supply compared to the estimated demand. Informality and dominance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make it difficult for climate financiers to invest in Africa, as they face risks associated with data gaps, lack of standardisation, and concerns about compliance. Collaboration between climate finance providers and African players, as well as improving the financial architecture of green-climate deals, can help address these challenges. Additionally, climate risks should be integrated into fiscal and debt sustainability analysis, considering the macro effects of climate change on African governments' fiscal and monetary policies. However, it is important to ensure that the integration of climate risks does not penalise African governments and hinder their access to affordable finance. The reform of global architecture should prioritise climate finance in a just manner that aligns with the continent's climate opportunities and priorities. Read the full article by Anzetse Were, development economist and senior economist, FSD Kenya here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

In the latest edition of Keeping it Fresh, the Fresh Produce Exporter's Forum (FPEF) newsletter, you will get a summary of the most pertinent information as well as reminders of important upcoming events. Please click here to peruse.