Negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the European Union (EU) have hit a major roadblock, putting an end to five years of talks. Australia expressed discontent with the EU's demands regarding the labelling of Australian feta cheese and prosecco, which are protected categories in the EU. Additionally, Australia was dissatisfied with the EU's reluctance to open its market to tariff-free beef and sheep imports. This prompted Australia to walk away from the proposed deal in July, as it didn't offer sufficient trade opportunities for the country's agricultural products. Australian farmers, fearing a "dud deal," urged their trade minister not to sign an agreement that could harm the agricultural sector for years to come. The breakdown in talks highlights the growing challenge of securing free trade agreements in a world where many countries are turning more protectionist. Australia's rejection of the EU's proposals has left a significant trade deal unlikely for several years. Meanwhile, the EU is exploring alternative agreements, potentially involving shipments of grain or fertilizer from Ukraine, in conjunction with broader discussions on migration and economic support for Egypt, a country heavily reliant on food imports. The details of these proposed agreements remain undisclosed. Click here to read full article first published on farmpolicynews.illinois.edu.

In a proactive move, Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development, Ms. Thoko Didiza, led an information-sharing session for the agricultural sector focused on the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA). This event served as a crucial preparation step for the upcoming 20th AGOA Forum, scheduled to commence on November 2, 2023, in Johannesburg. The session, which convened in Pretoria, drew the participation of key players in the agricultural sector, including South African farmers, agribusinesses, traders, and food processors. Its primary objective was to emphasize the significance of AGOA as a gateway to US market access for the local agricultural sector. During the session, Africa and South Africa's collective stance on AGOA was outlined, ensuring alignment on key aspects. Additionally, representatives from the US Department of Agriculture, Minister Counsellor Ali Abdi, and Agricultural Attaché, presented valuable opportunities for South African producers interested in exporting agricultural products to the US market. Further insights were provided by the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition, with Ambassador Xolelwa Mulumbi-Peter shedding light on AGOA's performance over the years, including highlighting the top three agricultural products that have found their way into the US market due to AGOA. This information-sharing initiative garnered enthusiastic support from over 260 participants attending the hybrid session, who praised its role in enhancing their understanding of AGOA's benefits and Africa's positioning in the upcoming forum. Click here to read full statement by DALRRD.

In a report published in June 2023, the Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) examined the multiple factors behind South Africa's economic growth collapse, attributing it to poor policy decisions, catastrophic governance, and weak leadership, effectively creating an anti-growth strategy. In this follow-up report, the CDE urges policymakers to urgently address the nation's decline. They emphasise the need for a clear diagnosis of the country's deep-rooted issues, which have been treated as isolated crises rather than interconnected problems. The CDE proposes a different approach that focuses on three core priorities: improving security and the rule of law, addressing energy and logistics crises, and stabilising public finances. These priorities should dominate government's agenda, as they are pivotal to addressing South Africa's current challenges. While it may not guarantee immediate economic growth, failing to address these issues ensures that sustained growth will remain an elusive goal. Additionally, the report highlights the importance of realistic government reform and the need for pro-market policies to replace practices that weaken markets. Ultimately, it stresses the urgency for a new leadership approach, emphasising the importance of effective leaders who prioritize the country's interests and engage with the power of markets to drive prosperity and inclusion. Read full new CDE Publication here.

This past week, we received comprehensive data about South Africa's winter crop conditions for the first time since the devastating floods in the Western Cape in September. The Western Cape is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for roughly two-thirds of South Africa's total winter crop output. As such, we were concerned that the damages caused by the floods in the province would have a notable impact on national level output. But the data released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) this past week paints a comforting picture. The CEC released its third production estimates for winter crops and lifted wheat harvest projection by 2% from September, estimated at 2,17 million tonnes. The current expected crop is up 3% from the previous season. This was a positive surprise as we had expected that the crop size could be lowered, especially if one considers the severity of the floods in the southern regions of the Western Cape. The provinces behind this robust national wheat harvest forecast are the Western Cape (53% of the overall harvest), Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo. Admittedly, while the Northern Cape and Free State are still amongst the leading wheat producers, their expected harvest is less than the 2022/23 season. Click here to read full report by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.

Although El Niño is on our doorstep, we have generally held an optimistic view about South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production season. The excellent soil moisture from the past rainy seasons and prospects of rainfall throughout 2023 have convinced us that there may still be decent summer grain and oilseed plantings. The South African Weather Service expects the El Niño induced dryness or below-normal rainfall to mainly be a reality from the start of 2024 and the current year to bring favourable showers still. Furthermore, farmers in our various engagements across the country have generally signalled that they would still plant the typical summer grain and oilseed area. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) last week reaffirmed our positive view. The CEC indicates that South African farmers intend to plant a total area of 4,47 million hectares of summer grain and oilseed in the 2023/24 season, up 2% y/y. A deep dive into the numbers shows that 2023/24 maize planting intention is 2,63 million hectares, up 2% y/y, and well above the 10-year average area of 2,53 million hectares. About 1,58 million hectares is white maize (up 4% y/y), and 1,05 million hectares is yellow maize (down 1% y/y). Click here to read full report by Wandile Sihlobo and click here to listen to latest episode of Agricultural Market Viewpoint on the same topic.

In this episode of 'Agrifood Bites,' a podcast dedicated to exploring global agriculture and food sectors, we celebrate World Food Day by delving into two crucial topics. First, we hear from V K Madhavan, Chief Executive of WaterAid India, who sheds light on the challenges of water scarcity and its profound impact on food security. This insightful conversation reveals how addressing water scarcity is key to a more secure and sustainable food future. In another segment, Lelo Skosana sits down with Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz). Together, they explore how technology can enhance sustainable food production in Africa, offering innovative solutions to boost agricultural development on the continent. If you haven't tuned in to 'Agrifood Bites' yet, it's time to join this global conversation, where experts discuss pressing agri-food issues in honour of World Food Day. These episodes are a valuable source of knowledge and insights that can transform the way we think about food, agriculture, and the future. Click here to listen.

The latest weather forecast anticipates a forthcoming wet period, especially towards the end of the month, with widespread rain expected across multiple regions, including the central to northeastern and eastern areas of the country and the crucial summer-grain production region. Rainfall totals are projected to range between 20 and 50 mm in these regions, although details may change as the event approaches. Expect cloudy, cool conditions with intermittent showers and thundershowers as we move into early summer. Additionally, elevated areas like the Drakensberg and Eastern Highveld may experience cold temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday, with the possibility of snow in some regions. Looking forward, it's important to note that while the upcoming rainfall is promising, it doesn't guarantee a continued wet season. Historically, widespread rain events in late October or early November can be followed by periods of below-normal rainfall, with global circulation patterns playing a significant role in this transition. Click here to read full CUMULUS by J Malherbe, R Kuschke.

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) is deeply concerned about South Africa's deteriorating public finances, which pose a significant threat to public services and economic recovery. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's warning that South Africa may run out of funds by March 2024 due to unsustainable spending necessitates immediate attention from all sectors. South Africa faces rising expenditures, falling revenues, and mounting debt, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 72.7% as of June 2023. BUSA recommends curtailing non-essential spending, shelving unfunded prestige projects, and linking public sector wage increases to inflation. The Minister must raise debt for short-term growth-enhancing infrastructure, with the condition of complementary economic reforms. BUSA firmly opposes tax increases, highlighting South Africa's high tax-to-GDP ratio, stressing the importance of fostering economic growth. Collaborating with the government, South African businesses aim to address energy, logistics, crime, and corruption issues. However, strong leadership is needed to provide clear policies, remove investment barriers, and boost confidence in business, investors, and consumers. Economic growth is crucial to avert a fiscal crisis, create jobs, broaden the tax base, and support vulnerable populations sustainably. Read full statement by BUSA CEO Cas Coovadia here.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in an El Niño state and is expected to persist throughout most of the upcoming summer months. Typically, El Niño brings drier and warmer conditions to Southern Africa from October to March. However, global forecasts introduce uncertainty about South Africa's usual dry conditions during El Niño, particularly in the eastern regions. The South African Weather Service's multi-model rainfall forecast predicts above-normal rainfall for the northeast during Nov-Dec-Jan (NDJ), Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF), and Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM), with below-normal rainfall projected for the central and southwest regions. Even with El Niño in place, above-normal rainfall is expected in certain areas, albeit with low probabilities. Caution is advised as El Niño's influence may alter the mid- and late-summer rainfall outlook. Throughout the forecast period, minimum and maximum temperatures are anticipated to be mostly above-normal nationwide. The South African Weather Service will closely monitor weather and climate conditions, providing updates as new assessments offer greater clarity on the upcoming season's expectations. Click here to read full Seasonal Climate Watch by SA weather service.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.