Against the backdrop of a once-in-a-century global health and economic crisis, the management of the global commons presents a very real challenge. The deterioration of trust in governments, experts, and evidence has made reaching consensus in policy-making more difficult. At the same time, there has been increased pressure for more rapid decision-making to help address real economic, environmental, and social issues. We need to rethink the way governments make rules. The important need for trusted, evidence-based, internationally coordinated, and well-implemented and administered regulation to deliver on climate action, harness innovation and manage interconnected global risks make this all the more urgent. The OECD 2021 Regulatory Policy Outlook is the third in this series. One of its main characteristics is that it individually maps country efforts to improve regulatory quality in line with the 2012 OECD Recommendation on Regulatory Policy and Governance. It also provides good regulatory practices that can help close existing gaps. It provides unique insights into how countries approach the design, enforcement, and revision of regulations and suggests where countries can best focus their efforts to ensure that laws and regulations work as intended. Finally, it discusses some agile and innovative approaches to rule-making such as regulatory sandboxes, behavioral insights, and outcome-based, data-driven, and risk-based regulation. Please click here to peruse.

Few questionable economic analyses and disproven solutions to South Africa’s economic and socioeconomic problems deserve responses. However, when the writer is an experienced business leader of Colin Coleman’s calibre, with a history of leading business at the heart of South Africa’s economy, a response backed by facts and objective realities of the country’s economic problems is warranted. I respond to Coleman’s remarks at the National Investment Dialogue, in which I participated, and his Sunday Times column of 3 October, titled “SA doesn’t have a debt problem. It has a growth problem – and a solution”. Read more in the linked article by Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at Alexander Forbes and a fellow of Economic Research of Southern Africa, first published in the Mail & Guardian.

Sub-Saharan Africa is set to emerge from the 2020 recession sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic with growth expected to expand by 3.3 percent in 2021. This is one percent higher than the April 2021 forecast according to the latest edition of Africa’s Pulse. This rebound is currently fueled by elevated commodity prices, a relaxation of stringent pandemic measures, and recovery in global trade, but remains vulnerable given the low rates of vaccination on the continent, protracted economic damage, and a slow pace of recovery. For more insights, please read the World Bank’s Africa Pulse report here.

I am in the Western Cape this week meeting various agribusinesses. We last had such in-person meetings before the pandemic. The conversations regarding the broad performance of the sector are encouraging, though the Western Cape didn’t experience as robust an agricultural performance as many of the other provinces because of the temporary bans on alcohol sales, which hit two of the province’s core agriculture industries — grapes for wine and barley for beer production — particularly hard. The focus is on the rebuilding phase, and at national level the agriculture growth strategy revolves around the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, which has been in the works for more than a year. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article, written for and first published in Business Day.

This past week, the national Crop Estimates Committee released its update on South Africa's 2020/21 summer crop production forecasts and the 2021/22 winter crop production. The summer crop numbers didn't introduce any surprises, aside from the 1% downward revision in the maize production estimate to 16,2 million tonnes, which is still the second-largest maize harvest on record. Other crops production estimates remain unchanged from August estimates, with sorghum and dry beans figures up by 3% and 2%, respectively. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

We believe South Africa's agricultural sector will grow by over 6% this year after an already solid growth of 13,4% y/y in 2020. Still, this expansion will likely slow to a long-term average of around 3% in 2022, in our view. The continuous favourable weather conditions, strong export activity, and relatively higher commodity prices will remain critical catalysts for growth in this sector in the near term. While there remains uncertainty about the commodity price trajectory, the expected La Niña and associated dryness it typically brings to

South America could prove to be a significant global price supporting factor and, in turn, boost the South African agricultural commodities market. Wandile Sihlobo shares his views in the linked article.

South Africa's agricultural exports have grown significantly over the past two decades. Yet agricultural private-sector role players typically argue that the government has not done enough to open up new markets for ever-increasing produce. This failure has limited the country's scope to grow exports beyond existing traditional markets in the European Union (EU) and the African continent. In markets outside these regions, private-sector players argue that the growth in South Africa's agricultural exports has primarily been driven by productivity gains whose competitive advantage overcomes the costs of high tariff and non-tariff barriers. However, a review of South Africa's trade agreements paints a different view, suggesting that private-sector role players might be downplaying the achievements of the past two decades. Read more in the linked article by Wandile Sihlobo and Tinashe Kapuya, senior program officer, Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa in Nairobi, first published on Econ3X3.

The grain and oilseed sector plays an important role in the growth of the South African economy. This makes a significant contribution to this year's export surplus. Due to the export of grain and citrus, the demand for the rand increases, and the currency, therefore, appears stronger. This creates the opportunity to import production inputs with a stronger rand. Agbiz Grain general manager Wessel Lemmer discusses this subject in the linked article, written for and first published in Landbouweekblad.

You will all be aware that several of the country’s leading companies have announced their intention to introduce mandatory vaccination policies within their organisations. The debate around this matter is growing both in South Africa and globally where several countries and companies have introduced mandatory vaccination. B4SA has assembled a panel of experts and business leaders to explore: the legalities of mandatory vaccination, the official position of organised business, and share insights generated by Discovery and Sanlam, which have both adopted mandatory vaccination policies. Speakers include:

There will be an opportunity for questions.

When:      Friday, 8 October, 2021

Time:       13:00 to 14:30

Format:     Zoom link

The primary mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is to achieve and maintain price stability in the interest of

balanced and sustainable economic growth. In addition, the SARB has a complementary mandate to oversee and maintain financial stability. The Monetary Policy Review (MPR) is published twice a year and is aimed at broadening the public’s understanding of the objectives and conduct of monetary policy. The MPR covers domestic and international developments that affect the monetary policy stance. Please click here for the full Monetary Policy Review. 

In its Seasonal Climate Watch report on 30 September 2021, the South African Weather Services indicated that "The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state, and the forecasts indicate that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for spring, with a likely change to a weak La Niña during early- and mid-summer. As we move towards the mid-summer season, ENSO starts playing an important role in our summer rainfall. As such, the increased likelihood of a weak La Niña during early- and mid-summer is expected to be favourable for above-normal rainfall in that period." This sentiment is aligned with the view we have emphasised in the past few weeks, also echoed by other global institutions such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which currently forecasts the chance of a La Niña forming during the coming months to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood. Please click here to peruse.

The evidence of child labour on cocoa farms in West Africa became public knowledge in the late 1990s. This followed press reports documenting the existence of hazardous child labour on cocoa farms. Pressure on the cocoa industry to end child labour has been growing ever since, particularly from civil society and more recently from both US and European regulators. To meet consumer demand for more sustainable and ethical cocoa, the industry began using certification schemes in the late 2000s. Certification labels, such as Rainforest Alliance and FairTrade, aim, among other goals, to guarantee cocoa produced without the use of child labour. Please click here to read the full article, first published on The Conversation.

Even though the South African dragon fruit industry is relatively young, the fruit as we know it today has been produced commercially since 1990 in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, China, Israel, California and Central America. Grown in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, the plantings of this fruit are increasing in South Africa, where producers are fast establishing a growing export industry. Pioneers in South Africa’s dragon fruit sector recently established the Southern Africa Dragon Fruit Association. Read more in the linked PMA media statement.

One of the defining features of climate change is the increasingly erratic and extreme weather experienced everywhere. In the Western Cape, good rains and mild temperatures this winter are making for an expected bumper crop of winter grains – this is excellent for the sector, food security and jobs. But many people were puzzled by the frequent periods of very cold weather, and a large amount of snow across the higher mountain peaks – how does this align with global warming? Read more in the second edition of the SmartAgri Barometer of 2021/2022 published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture.

The South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) is looking for a new general manager. For more information or to apply please click here. 

The FairPlay Bulletin a weekly digest of news and opinion on international trade, food security, economic development and sustainability published by the FairPlay Movement. Please click here to peruse.

Demand for citrus fruits has been booming throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, but South Africa’s exports industry, may miss out on this boom. Presently, millions of tons of fruit stand uncollected in cold storage at the Durban port and local growers are troubled about port backlogs potentially costing them sales revenue in this surge for citrus. Hannes de Waal, vice-chair of the Citrus Growers' Association in South Africa: ”The problems with the ports really have been coming over a very long time and, as recent articles have pointed out, it’s very much the problem with all, let’s say, semi-government departments or whatever you want to call them.” Please click here to read the full article, first published on Fresh Plaza.

To develop a farm, one has to start somewhere. And the way to start is by creating partnerships, linking your dreams to the barren land. Initially, the partnerships will be few and far between, but then as they slowly increase in number and impact, the dots start to connect to create what would hopefully be a sustainable enterprise for the farmer, employees and the nation. After all, food production and food security are basic human rights for all. FarmSol is celebrating five years of supporting new farmers this October. Read more in the linked FarmSol media statement.

Keeping it Fresh, the newsletter of the Fresh Produce Exporters Forum (FPEF) contains all the recent relevant news and developments. Please click here for the latest edition.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

Read more about the latest developments and news in the pork industry in the South African Pork Producers' Organisation's (SAPPO) newsletter, SAPPO Weekly Update.