The TRP Tip Sheet

August 22, 2024

Editor's note: With Congress out of session, the Tip Sheet will be in your inboxes on Tuesdays and Thursdays this month. Our daily cadence will pick back up on Monday, September 9.

QUICK TAKES

— A LOOK AT SOME OF THE RECENT TRUMP-VANCE POLICY PROPOSALS. The former president is ramping up his messaging efforts to counter policies outlined by the Harris-Walz campaign.


— FTC BAN ON NONCOMPETES BLOCKED BY FEDERAL JUDGE. A federal judge ruled the Federal Trade Commission can’t enforce its near-total ban on noncompete agreements that was set to go into effect next month.


— TRP CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENT TRACKER. Click to view TRP's congressional retirement tracker.

ELECTION UPDATE

— A LOOK AT SOME OF THE RECENT TRUMP-VANCE POLICY PROPOSALS. In Tuesday's edition, we took a look at some of the recent policy positions that the Harris-Walz campaign released as a part of the Vice President's economic agenda. Today, we will focus on the Trump-Vance campaign. While the former president usually prefers to dictate his positions instead of producing multi-page "fact sheets," here's a look at some of the specific policies he's championed throughout the campaign thus far:


  • Health. The former president has targeted the cost of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as an issue he wants to address when he returns to office, but details on this approach have been scant. In the past, he has supported the use of Health Savings Accounts (HSA) and short-term plans as avenues to lower insurance costs for patients. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have been honed in on lowering the cost of prescription drugs, but Trump specifically stated that "we will only pay the best price they offer to foreign nations." He has also touted prior efforts to increase foreign drug importation, as well as patient "right to try" rules at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).


  • Housing. Former President Trump recently discussed the need for additional housing units during a pair of economy-focused events in New Jersey and North Carolina. Instead of increased spending, the campaign has proposed opening up federal lands for development, scaling back regulatory and administrative burdens, and promoting tax incentives for first time homebuyers.


  • Tax. The Trump-Vance campaign, along with Republicans down the ballot, has consistently championed another round of tax cuts to build on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The former president has specifically called for permanently lowering individual tax rates across the board, while also driving down the corporate tax rate to 15 percent. Additionally, he has proposed ending taxes on tipped wages, something that has also picked up steam in the Harris-Walz campaign in recent weeks. Republicans have also called for leveraging the tax code to support domestic manufacturing and small businesses, as well as building upon the Opportunity Zone program ahead of its future expiration in 2026.


  • Costs. Former President Trump has consistently argued that the Biden administration's policies have contributed to an inflationary environment, particularly around the cost of energy and groceries. Reducing federal spending and enhancing domestic oil and gas production have been at the center of the former president's stump speeches, but he has also stressed the need for aggressive trade policy as a way to drive down costs and protect jobs. In particular, the former president has been focused on a 10 percent tariff across-the-board on all U.S. imports, and a tariff as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods.


  • Situational awareness. As with any presidential campaign's proposals, the size and scope of any future legislative efforts will depend on the margins in Congress. Regardless of who wins next year, the next president will need to be in dealmaking mode right from the get-go, particularly if the election produces small majorities in both chambers or a divided government. As such, some of the more ambitious proposals will need to be scaled back to clinch future intraparty and bipartisan deals.


  • For more on the state of the 2024 election, click here to view our latest Special Report.

WHAT WE'RE TRACKING

NEW TODAY...


— NIST ISSUES SECOND DRAFT DIGITAL IDENTITY GUIDELINES. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released updated guidance on a wide range of methods people use to prove their identity — including digital wallets, passkeys, and physical identification — with the intention of ensuring security, privacy, and accessibility during the identity-proofing process for people accessing government services.

  • Public comments on the draft guidance are being solicited, with a due date of Oct. 7, 2024.


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS...


— DEMOCRATIC VP NOMINEE TIM WALZ: HEALTH POLICY POSITIONS. This memo provides an overview of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) background in the health care space, as well as insights as to how his experience could mesh with Vice President Harris’s stated goals and experience in health. 


— TRP SPECIAL REPORT: END-OF-2024 HEALTH POLICY OUTLOOK. TRP's newest Special Report provides an extensive overview of Congress' key health care priorities through the end of the 118th Congress.


— UPDATE ON FEMA DISASTER RELIEF FUND. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced that the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) has transitioned to Immediate Needs Funding (INF) due to a funding shortfall, imposing spending restrictions for existing rebuilding projects to prioritize lifesaving and life-sustaining activities.

  • With the DRF in need of additional funding, lawmakers will rally to tie additional funds to a forthcoming continuing resolution (CR) needed to keep the government funded past Sept. 30 when they return next month.
  • Click to view FEMA's fact sheet, frequently asked questions (FAQ), and monthly report to Congress.


— CMS UNVEILS MEDICARE NEGOTIATED PRICES FOR 10 SELECTED DRUGS. Pursuant to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the negotiated prices for 10 drugs covered under Medicare Part D that are set to go into effect beginning January 1, 2026. Click here to read TRP's memo.


— WHITE HOUSE LAUNCHES INITIATIVE ON 'CORPORATE TIME WASTING.' President Biden announced a new administration-wide policy initiative aimed at addressing "time wasting" practices — such as long hold times, burdensome paperwork, unwanted subscriptions, and difficult cancellation processes — among corporations across a wide swath of sectors. Notable announcements tied to this initiative include:

  • A letter to health insurance companies and group health plans from Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra and Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su regarding options to help people keep and use their coverage;
  • A forthcoming rulemaking from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to require human contact options for company customer service lines under its jurisdiction; and
  • Additional rules or guidance from the CFPB to address the use of chatbots in banking and financial services products.


— WH ROLLS OUT HOUSING POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS. The Biden administration announced a series of actions tied to its Housing Supply Action Plan. Notable announcements include: 

  • $100 million in grant funding for the Pathways to Removing Obstacles to Housing (PRO Housing) program;
  • New actions from the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) intended to provide more interest rate certainty for state and local Housing Finance Agencies (HFAs) that use the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) risk-sharing initiative with the Federal Financing Bank to finance new construction;
  • Guidance from the Department of Transportation (DOT) to clarify that Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) and Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing (RRIF) loans used for conversion projects may be eligible for a categorical exclusion under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA);
  • Up to $250 million in loan financing from HUD for communities that use Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funding to support new construction of Section 108 housing; and
  • A forthcoming rule from HUD to update its Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards.

WHAT WE'RE READING

Bloomberg: FTC Ban on Worker Noncompete Deals Blocked by Federal Judge

 

A federal judge ruled the US Federal Trade Commission can’t enforce its near-total ban on noncompete agreements that was set to go into effect next month, blocking an effort by the agency to make labor markets more competitive. In a ruling Tuesday, US District Judge Ada Brown in Dallas sided with the US Chamber of Commerce and a Texas-based tax firm that sued to block the measure. The judge said the FTC lacked the authority to enact the ban, which she said was “unreasonably overbroad without a reasonable explanation.” The ruling represents a significant blow for the FTC and further divides the judiciary over the regulator’s powers. A federal judge in Pennsylvania had previously sided with the FTC. The rule is likely to be headed for appellate review. Brown had previously delayed implementation of the ban, which was scheduled to take effect on Sept. 4. “We are disappointed by Judge Brown’s decision and will keep fighting to stop noncompetes that restrict the economic liberty of hardworking Americans, hamper economic growth, limit innovation, and depress wages,” FTC spokesperson Victoria Graham said in a statement. “We are seriously considering a potential appeal.” … The case in Dallas is one of three lawsuits challenging the FTC’s non-compete rule and the most advanced. The others are pending in Florida and Pennsylvania, with one judge initially siding with the FTC and the other against. Neither of those suits has yet reached a final determination on the FTC’s rulemaking authority.


E&E News: Democrats worry a new Supreme Court precedent will be ‘used and abused’ to thwart Biden’s legacy ($)

 

President Joe Biden executed one of the most sweeping progressive agendas on labor, climate change and “corporate greed” in recent decades — only to see the Supreme Court lay it so bare that a Kamala Harris victory may not protect large chunks of it. A suite of Supreme Court rulings this summer freed up federal judges to freeze many regulations the president once campaigned on or enacted to get around a deeply divided Congress. In Texas, a federal judge blocked Biden’s ban on noncompete agreements for workers, and a judge in Mississippi stopped his discrimination protections in health care for transgender people. And an Ohio-based appeals court temporarily halted a policy preventing internet companies from throttling service. Biden appointees have spent years writing rules to crack down on credit card late fees, require airlines to fork over cash refunds and make millions more people eligible for overtime pay while reining in polluting industries. But the future of those policies, along with the president’s unfinished business on student debt relief and artificial intelligence, are far less secure than they were just two months ago. While having a successor from the same party long served as the simplest way for presidents to protect and continue their legacies, the high court has made it harder for Harris to defend Biden’s even if she bests former President Donald Trump. The court rulings, particularly one overturning the “Chevron doctrine,” now make it more difficult for Harris to secure her own agenda — or even, in some cases, for Trump to cement his.


The Wall Street Journal: Schumer Optimistic About Passing Federal AI Regulation This Year ($)

 

Despite deep concerns about the safety of artificial intelligence, efforts to pass legislation to address its risks have been elusive in the U.S. Lawmakers at the Democratic National Convention say they continue to push for an election year breakthrough. “We’re going to get a great AI package which keeps innovation as our North Star, hopefully through the Congress by the end of the year. We have great prospects,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.). In July, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee advanced a group of AI bills, including a bipartisan Future of Artificial Intelligence Innovation Act, designed to maintain U.S. global leadership in AI and other emerging technologies. But some remain skeptical. Regulation in the U.S. has been slow moving, and could be even more so with both parties focused on the impending presidential election. Washington has a poor record of moving quickly on tech, and the U.S., unlike the European Union, lacks a comprehensive set of rules like the bloc’s Artificial Intelligence Act, which took effect in August. In the U.S., the closest most comprehensive federal guidelines may be found in the Biden administration’s 2023 executive order on safe, secure and trustworthy AI. When it comes to actual legislation, much momentum has shifted to individual states, including Colorado and California—a phenomenon that could result in a complex patchwork of varying regulations and requirements that differ from state to state.


MarketWatch: Kamala Harris backs Biden’s tax proposals — including a tax on unrealized capital gains

 

In the first few days of Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign, experts told MarketWatch that her stances on taxes probably would closely resemble those of President Joe Biden. One month into her campaign, it looks like that is indeed the case. Multiple published reports this week have said the Democratic presidential nominee supports the tax increases put forth in Biden’s most recent budget proposal, which came out in March. The Biden budget called for new taxes on wealthy Americans, corporations and business owners — including a controversial idea to tax unrealized capital gains as income for those with more than $100 million. An unrealized capital gain, also called a paper profit, refers to an increase in value for an asset that a person hasn’t sold yet, whether it’s a share in a business or a property. … Biden’s most recent budget proposal features other ideas related to capital gains. Other plans would “increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6 percent,” the Treasury Department said. The Harris campaign didn’t immediately respond Wednesday to MarketWatch’s request for comment. But a Harris campaign official told MarketWatch earlier this month that investors should look to the recent budget, and not stances taken by Harris before her time as vice president, as a guide for her policy preferences.


The Associated Press: Canada’s 2 major freight railroads at a full stop; government officials scramble

 

Business and consumers throughout Canada and the U.S. were in danger of suffering significant economic harm after Canada’s major freight railroads came to a full stop Thursday because of a contract dispute with their workers. Canadian government officials met urgently to discuss the shutdown. Canadian National and CPKC railroads both locked out their employees after the 12:01 a.m. EDT deadline Thursday passed without new agreements with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, which represents about 10,000 engineers, conductors and dispatchers. All rail traffic in Canada and all shipments crossing the U.S. border have stopped, although CPKC and CN’s trains will continue to operate in the U.S. and Mexico. Billions of dollars of goods each month move between Canada and the U.S. via rail, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Many companies across all industries rely on railroads to deliver their raw materials and finished products, so without regular rail service they may have to cut back or even close. Both railroads have said they would end the lockout if the union agreed to binding arbitration, while unions indicated that they were still at the bargaining table.


The Associated Press: Fed minutes: Most officials favored a rate cut in September if inflation continued to cool

 

Most Federal Reserve officials agreed last month that they would likely cut their benchmark interest rate at their next meeting in September as long as inflation continued to cool. The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” … Wall Street traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September, according to futures prices. A lower Fed benchmark rate would lead eventually to lower rates for auto loans, mortgages and other forms of consumer borrowing and could also boost stock prices. The minutes of the Fed’s meetings sometimes reveal key details behind the policymakers’ thinking, especially about how their views on interest rates might be evolving. Further guidance on the Fed’s next steps is expected when Chair Jerome Powell gives a highly anticipated speech Friday morning at the annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

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