Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new."

– Socrates

"People who know little are usually great talkers, while me who know much say little."

– Jean Rousseau

"Nonay will stop you from creating. Do it tonight. Dt it tomorrow. That is the ay to make your soul grw."

– Kurt Vonnegut

1. Heads of CIA and MI6 say world order 'under threat not seen since Cold War'

2. Russia’s Most Notorious Special Forces Unit Now Has Its Own Cyber Warfare Team

3. U.S. Army Special Forces Hackers Attack Wi-Fi Networks

4. Chinese State-Linked Influence Operation Spamouflage Masquerades as U.S. Voters to Push Divisive Online Narratives Ahead of 2024 Election.

5. Opinion: Russian Misinfo Pushers and US Useful Idiots

6. The battle of Kursk hinges on the Russian railroad

7. German warships to pass through Taiwan Strait this month: Report

8. ‘Special forces-styled travel’? Changing face of mainland Chinese travellers triggers Hong Kong tourism rethink

9. In Russia’s Kursk, Ukraine Takes On a New Role: Occupier

10. China Is Becoming Much Harder for Western Scholars to Study

11. Biden decision to kill Nippon Steel deal could spark legal challenge

12. Navy’s recruitment strategy should inspire other branches to act Rep. Tony Gonzales

13. CIA chief: Russian elite left questioning war after Kursk incursion

14. Australian links revealed in global defence company scandal involving China, Russia and Iran

15. Dracarys! Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache'

16. Great Power Competition Report - United States & China Economic, Military, and Diplomatic Developments

17. Analysis: How secure and reliable are US elections? You’d be surprised

1. Heads of CIA and MI6 say world order 'under threat not seen since Cold War'

Have we asked and answered the question: Is it a vital US national interest to defend the rules based international order (RBIO)? If yes, what does it mean to defend the RBIO? What are the ways and means that we must use to defend the RBIO?

If it is not a US vital nation interest to defend the RBIO what are the implications for the US if the RBIO fails?

Heads of CIA and MI6 say world order 'under threat not seen since Cold War' - BBC News

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org · by @gordoncorera

World order 'under threat not seen since Cold War'

Image source, FT

Image caption, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns sat together at an FT event on SaturdayArticle information

Author, Gordon Corera
Role, Security correspondent
Twitter,
7 September 2024

The international world order is "under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War", the heads of the UK and US foreign intelligence services have warned.

The chiefs of MI6 and the CIA also said both countries stand together in "resisting an assertive Russia and Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine".

In a first-ever joint article, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns wrote in the Financial Times that they saw the war in Ukraine coming "and were able to warn the international community", in part by declassifying secrets to help Kyiv.

And they said there was work being done to "disrupt the reckless campaign of sabotage" across Europe by Russia, push for de-escalation in the Israel-Gaza war, and counterterrorism to thwart the resurgent Islamic State (IS).

In the FT op-ed, they wrote: "There is no question that the international world order – the balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities and prosperity – is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War."

"Successfully combating this risk" is at the foundation of the special relationship between the UK and US, they added.

One of the "unprecedented array of threats" faced by both countries is the war in Ukraine, which is in its third year after Russia's invasion in February 2022.

Image source, gov.uk / Reuters

Image caption, The chief spooks also wrote a joint article for the first time

The security services chiefs made their first public speaking appearance together at the FT Weekend Festival at London's Kenwood House on Saturday.

Details of the speakers were kept under wraps until just minutes before they arrived on stage. They appeared relaxed together and stressed the close working partnership between their agencies.

Mr Burns told attendees that Ukraine's recent seizure of Russian territory in the Kursk region was a "significant tactical victory", but he saw no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power was weakening.

There have been calls from Ukraine for the West to supply more weapons and lift restrictions on their use inside Russia.

The failure to do so has sometimes been put down to fears over how Moscow might react. But the spy chiefs suggested that should not deter support for Ukraine.

"None of us should take lightly the risks of escalation," Mr Burns said.

He described a moment in late 2022 when there was, he said, a "genuine risk" of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in response to setbacks on the battlefield.

Mr Burns passed messages to Russian officials warning of the consequences of their use.

"I’ve never thought, however - and this is the view of my agency - that we should be unnecessarily intimidated by that," the CIA Director continued.

"Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to sabre rattle from time to time."

Asked about an apparent increased willingness of Russian intelligence services to carry out covert operations like sabotage and arson in Europe, Sir Richard Moore said their use of criminals to carry out attacks suggested a degree of desperation.

"Russian intelligence services have gone a bit feral in some of their behaviour," he said.

Mr Burns added that even if plots sometimes appeared amateurish, they could still be "reckless and dangerous".

In their joint piece for the FT newspaper, both men said "staying the course is more vital than ever" when it comes to supporting Ukraine, adding that Mr Putin "will not succeed".

The conflict has shown how technology can alter the course of war, and highlighted the need to "adapt, experiment and innovate", they said.

They continued: "Beyond Ukraine, we continue to work together to disrupt the reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe being waged by Russian intelligence, and its cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us."

Both foreign intelligence services see the rise of China as the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century.

They have reorganised their services "to reflect that priority", the pair wrote.

They also said they have pushed "hard" for restraint and de-escalation in the Middle East, and have been working "ceaselessly" to secure a ceasefire and hostage deal.

Mr Burns, who has been central to ceasefire efforts, indicated at the FT event that there may be a more detailed proposal in the coming days.

"This is ultimately a question of political will," he said, adding that he "profoundly" hopes leaders on both sides will do a deal.

It is 11 months since Hamas attacked southern Israel on 7 October, killing about 1,200 people and taking another 251 hostage.

More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza since then in Israel's ongoing military campaign, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org · by @gordoncorera

2. Russia’s Most Notorious Special Forces Unit Now Has Its Own Cyber Warfare Team

Excerpts:

Sophistication aside, the researcher also notes that the 29155 hackers in some cases compromised their targets by breaching IT providers that serve Ukrainian and other Eastern European firms, giving them access to victims' systems and data. “Instead of kicking the front door down, they’re trying to blend in with legitimate trusted channels, trusted pathways into a network,” the researcher says.

The security researcher also notes that unlike hackers in other GRU units, Cadet Blizzard appears to have been housed in its own building, separate from the rest of the GRU, perhaps to make the team harder to link to the Unit 29155 of which they're a part. Combined with the group's command structure and criminal partnerships, it all suggests a new model for the GRU's approach to cyber warfare.

“Everything about this operation was different,” the researcher says. “It’s really going to pave the way for the future of what we see from the Russian Federation.”

Russia’s Most Notorious Special Forces Unit Now Has Its Own Cyber Warfare Team

Unit 29155 of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency—a team responsible for coup attempts, assassinations, and bombings—has branched out into brazen hacking operations with targets across the world.

Wired · by Andy Greenberg · September 5, 2024

Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, has long had a reputation as one of the world's most aggressive practitioners of sabotage, assassination, and cyber warfare, with hackers who take pride in working under the same banner as violent special forces operators. But one new group within that agency shows how the GRU may be intertwining physical and digital tactics more tightly than ever before: a hacking team, which has emerged from the same unit responsible for Russia's most notorious physical tactics, including poisonings, attempted coups, and bombings inside Western countries.

A broad group of Western government agencies from countries including the US, the UK, Ukraine, Australia, Canada, and five European countries on Thursday revealed that a hacker group known as Cadet Blizzard, Bleeding Bear, or Greyscale—one that has launched multiple hacking operations targeting Ukraine, the US, and other countries in Europe, Asia, and Latin America—is in fact part of the GRU's Unit 29155, the division of the spy agency known for its brazen acts of physical sabotage and politically motivated murder. That unit has been tied in the past, for instance, to the attempted poisoning of GRU defector Sergei Skripal with the Novichok nerve agent in the UK, which led to the death of a bystander, as well as another assassination plot in Bulgaria, the explosion of an arms depot in the Czech Republic, and a failed coup attempt in Montenegro.

Now that infamous section of the GRU appears to have developed its own active team of cyber warfare operators—distinct from those within other GRU units such as Unit 26165, broadly known as Fancy Bear or APT28, and Unit 74455, the cyberattack-focused team known as Sandworm. Since 2022, GRU Unit 29155's more recently recruited hackers have taken the lead on cyber operations, including with the data-destroying wiper malware known as Whispergate, which hit at least two dozen Ukrainian organizations on the eve of Russia's February 2022 invasion, as well as the defacement of Ukrainian government websites and the theft and leak of information from them under a fake “hacktivist” persona known as Free Civilian.

Cadet Blizzard's identification as a part of GRU Unit 29155 shows how the agency is further blurring the line between physical and cyber tactics in its approach to hybrid warfare, according to one of multiple Western intelligence agency officials whom WIRED interviewed on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak using their names. “Special forces don’t normally set up a cyber unit that mirrors their physical activities,” one official says. “This is a heavily physical operating unit, tasked with the more gruesome acts that the GRU is involved in. I find it very surprising that this unit that does very hands-on stuff is now doing cyber things from behind a keyboard.”

In addition to the joint public statement revealing Cadet Blizzard's link to the GRU's unit 29155, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency published an advisory detailing the group's hacking methods and ways to spot and mitigate them. The US Department of Justice indicted five members of the group by name, all in absentia, in addition to a sixth who had been previously charged earlier in the summer without any public mention of Unit 29155.

“The GRU’s WhisperGate campaign, including targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure and government systems of no military value, is emblematic of Russia’s abhorrent disregard for innocent civilians as it wages its unjust invasion,” the US Justice Department's assistant attorney general Matthew G. Olsen wrote in a statement. “Today’s indictment underscores that the Justice Department will use every available tool to disrupt this kind of malicious cyber activity and hold perpetrators accountable for indiscriminate and destructive targeting of the United States and our allies.”

The US State Department also posted a $10 million reward for information leading to the identification or location of members of the group, along with their photos, to its Rewards for Justice website.

A State Department poster offering $10 million for information leading to the identification or location of the five GRU unit 29155 hackers.Courtesy of the US State Department

Beyonds its previously known operations against Ukraine, Western intelligence agency officials tell WIRED that the group has also targeted a wide variety of organizations in North America, Eastern and Central Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America, such as transportation and health care sectors, government agencies, and “critical infrastructure” including “energy” infrastructure, though the officials declined to offer more specific information. The officials told WIRED that in some cases, the 29155 hackers appeared to be preparing for more disruptive cyberattacks akin to Whispergate, but didn't have confirmation that any such attacks had actually taken place.

The US Department of State in June separately revealed that the same GRU hackers who carried out Whispergate also sought to find hackable vulnerabilities in US critical infrastructure targets, “particularly the energy, government, and aerospace sectors.” The DOJ's newly unsealed indictment against the 29155 hackers alleges they probed the network of a US government agency in Maryland 63 times—though without revealing whether any such probes were success—as well as searching for vulnerabilities in the networks of targets in no fewer than 26 NATO countries.

In many cases, the 29155 hackers' intention appeared to be military espionage, according to Western intelligence agency officials. In a Central European country, for instance, they say the group breached a railway agency to spy on train shipments of supplies to Ukraine. In Ukraine itself, they say, the hackers compromised consumer surveillance cameras, perhaps to gain visibility on movement of Ukrainian troops or weapons. Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russia has used that tactic to target missile strikes, though the intelligence officials who spoke to WIRED didn't have evidence that 29155's operations specifically had been used for that missile targeting.

The Western intelligence agency sources say that GRU Unit 29155's hacking team was formed as early as 2020, though until recent years it primarily focused on espionage rather than more disruptive cyberattacks. The creation of yet another hacking group within the GRU might seem superfluous, given that the GRU's preexisting teams units such as Sandworm and Fancy Bear have long been some of the world's most active and aggressive players in cyber warfare and espionage. But Western intelligence agency officials say that Unit 29155 was likely driven to seek its own specialized hacking team due to internal competition within the GRU, as well as the group's growing clout following the perceived success of its operations—even the botched Skripal assassination attempt. “The Skripal poisoning gave them a lot of attention and a lot of mandate,” one official says. “We assess it’s very likely that’s resulted in them getting a lot of more funds and the resources to attract the capability to start a cyber unit. Success is measured differently in the Western world and Russia.”

According to the Western intelligence officials who spoke to WIRED, the 29155 hacking group is composed of just 10 or so individuals, all of whom are relatively young GRU officers. Several individuals participated in hacking “Capture the Flag” competitions—competitive hacking simulations that are common at hacker conferences—prior to joining the GRU, and may have been recruited from those events. But the small team has also partnered with Russian cybercriminal hackers in some cases, the officials say, expanding their resources and in some instances using commodity cybercriminal malware that has made its operations more difficult to attribute to the Russian state.

One example of those criminal partnerships appears to be with Amin Timovich Stigal, a Russian hacker indicted by the US in absentia in June for allegedly aiding in Cadet Blizzard's Whispergate attacks on the Ukrainian government. The US State Department has also issued a $10 million reward for information leading to Stigal's arrest.

In addition to reliance on criminal hackers, other signs of Cadet Blizzard's level of technical skill appear to fit with intelligence officials' description of a small and relatively young team, according to one security researcher who has closely tracked the group but asked not to be named because they weren't authorized by their employer to speak about their findings. To gain initial access to target networks, the hackers largely exploited a handful of known software vulnerabilities and didn't use any so-called zero-day vulnerabilities—previously unknown hackable flaws—according to the researcher. “There’s probably not a lot of hands-on experience there. They’re following a very common operating procedure,” says the researcher. “They just figured out the exploit du jour that would give them the most mileage in their chosen domains, and they stuck with it.” In another instance of the group's lack of polish, a map of Ukraine that had been included in their defacement images and posted to hacked Ukrainian websites included the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has claimed as its own territory since 2014.

Sophistication aside, the researcher also notes that the 29155 hackers in some cases compromised their targets by breaching IT providers that serve Ukrainian and other Eastern European firms, giving them access to victims' systems and data. “Instead of kicking the front door down, they’re trying to blend in with legitimate trusted channels, trusted pathways into a network,” the researcher says.

The security researcher also notes that unlike hackers in other GRU units, Cadet Blizzard appears to have been housed in its own building, separate from the rest of the GRU, perhaps to make the team harder to link to the Unit 29155 of which they're a part. Combined with the group's command structure and criminal partnerships, it all suggests a new model for the GRU's approach to cyber warfare.

“Everything about this operation was different,” the researcher says. “It’s really going to pave the way for the future of what we see from the Russian Federation.”

Update 9/6/2024 3:05pm ET: This story has been updated to reflect that the attempted poisoning Sergei Skripal led to the death of one bystander rather than two.

Wired · by Andy Greenberg · September 5, 2024

3. U.S. Army Special Forces Hackers Attack Wi-Fi Networks

U.S. Army Special Forces Hackers Attack Wi-Fi Networks

Davey Winder

Senior Contributor

Davey Winder is a veteran cybersecurity writer, hacker and analyst.

Forbes · by Davey Winder · September 7, 2024

The Green Berets complete cyber operations training

getty

It has always been the case that underestimating the ingenuity and true grit of the Green Berets, the U.S. Army special forces, can often be a fatal mistake. With the arrival of cyberwarfare as a key part of the modern battleground, that has not changed. If proof is needed, then look no further than Exercise Swift Response 2024, which took place recently in Sweden. Special Forces operatives employed the latest in disruptive cyber-tactics in order to gain superiority and how. Green Beret hackers are certainly not to be messed with, and if they have you in their crosshairs, things will get messy very quickly. The ability to “gain access to any WiFi networks originating at the target, and then monitor activity from that location for a period of time,” an identity-protected Operational Detachment Alpha soldier explained, “it gives us another set of eyes and helps to paint a clearer picture of our objective.”

ForbesNew NSA Report Pins Russian Military Hackers For U.S. Attacks Since 2020 By Davey Winder

The Five Special Operations Forces Truths

An article by Sgt. 1st Class Tim Beery on the U.S. Army website refers to the 1991 five special operations forces truths as determined by U.S. Army Col. (ret) John Collins.

These truths are:

Humans are more important than hardware.
Quality is better than quantity.
Special Operations Forces cannot be mass-produced.
Competent Special Operations Forces cannot be created after emergencies occur.
Most special operations require non-SOF assistance.

While these truths are far from obsolete, they have evolved. Nowhere is this clearer than in truth number one, where, obviously, humans are the most important thing, but hardware has changed beyond all recognition in the 33 years that have passed since the originals were penned. “Cyberspace has become a key part of the battlefield,” Beery said, “and quickly has become just as critical as the physical realm in battlefield superiority.”

Hacking Enemy Buildings During Exercise Swift Response 2024

During Exercise Swift Response 2024, for example, the special forces ODA team identified a target building. The team then hacked the Wi-Fi password for the building network and ran exploits on the devices within. “This enabled the team to manipulate security cameras, door locks, and other security systems in the building,” Beery said.

ForbesYour Country Needs You—Report Hackers Now, U.S. Government Says By Davey Winder

It doesn’t take a military genius of the Sun Tzu level to realize that the ability to gather not only such important intel but also control the target environment is a monumental advantage for the attacking force. During this exercise, one team dealt with hacking and manipulating the building while another took charge of the physical infiltration operation. The second team, which not only had to do a military free fall parachute jump but then march for a total of seven miles to reach the target, could enter through unlocked doors, with no security cameras watching them. “From there they placed signal jamming equipment,” Beery said, “to clear any trace of the attack and exited the premises.”

The cyber team having eyes on the operation, seeing what the infiltration team is doing in real-time, and controlling the targeted environment undetected is a game-changer.

Forbes · by Davey Winder · September 7, 2024

4.Chinese State-Linked Influence Operation Spamouflage Masquerades as U.S. Voters to Push Divisive Online Narratives Ahead of 2024 Election

Download the 17 page report att this link: https://public-assets.graphika.com/reports/graphika-report-the-americans.pdf

Tuesday September 3, 2024

The #Americans

The Graphika Team

https://graphika.com/reports/the-americans?fbclid=

Read Full Report

Chinese State-Linked Influence Operation Spamouflage Masquerades as U.S. Voters to Push Divisive Online Narratives Ahead of 2024 Election

Chinese state-linked influence operation (IO) Spamouflage has become more aggressive in its efforts to influence U.S. political conversations ahead of the 2024 presidential election. This includes expanding its use of personas that impersonate U.S. voters on social media platforms and spreading divisive narratives about sensitive social issues in the U.S.
Through Graphika’s ATLAS intelligence reporting, we identified 15 Spamouflage accounts on X and one account on TikTok claiming to be U.S. citizens and/or U.S.-focused peace, human rights, and information integrity advocates frustrated by American politics and the West. We also identified a cross-platform Spamouflage persona operating as an inauthentic U.S.-focused media outlet.
In the run-up to the 2024 election, these accounts have seeded and amplified content denigrating Democratic and Republican candidates, sowing doubt in the legitimacy of the U.S. electoral process, and spreading divisive narratives about sensitive social issues including gun control, homelessness, drug abuse, racial inequality, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. This content, some of which was almost certainly AI-generated, has targeted President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and, more recently, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite attempts to masquerade as U.S. users and engage with hot-button issues, the accounts failed to garner significant traction in authentic online communities discussing the election. The rare exception was an inauthentic media outlet operating on TikTok which posted a video in July that has received 1.5 million views to date.
This report corroborates and builds on research the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) published in April 2024, which documented a set of four Spamouflage accounts on X posing as supporters of Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. In conjunction with ISD’s analysis, our findings suggest that Spamouflage’s attempts to pose as U.S. users are more expansive than previously reported.
We assess that Spamouflage and other Chinese IO actors will almost certainly continue their efforts to influence U.S. political conversations throughout the 2024 presidential election cycle, leveraging social divisions in a polarized information environment to portray the U.S. as a declining global power with weak leaders and a failing system of governance.
We assess that Spamouflage and other Chinese IO actors will very likely continue to experiment with and expand on new tactics, techniques, and procedures, including using generative AI tools to create deceptive content and scale their activities, developing higher-quality inauthentic personas, and co-opting authentic online voices, such as social media influencers.

5. Opinion: Russian Misinfo Pushers and US Useful Idiots

I am sure there are those who will find this "messenger's" analysis suspect because of past history.

Excerpts:

I’ll be frank - after doing a cursory search of the personalities involved in Tenet Media, I think, these people are morons. I have no idea why people think “Tim Pool” is an authority on anything and I pity anyone that uses these streams as their main source of news. However, it’s impossible to deny the size of Tenet Media’s audience.

...

Not only does this indictment provide insight into the narratives pushed by the Russian government, but it also shows us the literal chain of command used in this operation: Afanasyeva contacted an unnamed “founder” of Tenet Media, wrote “I think we can focus on the Ukraine/U.S. angle .... the mainstream media spread fake news that ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack yet ISIS itself never made such statements. All terrorists are now detained while they were heading to the border with Ukraine which makes it even more suspicious why they would want to go to Ukraine to hide,” and by the next day an unnamed streamer was “happy to cover it.”

...

As Americans, we should recognize that the greatest threat to our country isn’t the military of an adversary, but instead the manipulation of our democracy by bad actors that agitate different elements of the political fringe. Our elections are not open season for America’s enemies - we need to secure our voting systems and do everything we can to track and fight misinformation online.

Opinion: Russian Misinfo Pushers and US Useful Idiots

kyivpost.com · by Alexander Vindman · September 8, 2024

US Russia Top News

Unsealed Indictment Reveals $10 Million in Funding from RT to MAGA Personalities

By Alexander Vindman

September 8, 2024, 9:59 am

Photo: illustrative. The Department of Justice building in Washington, DC. Stefani Reynolds / AFP

A recently unsealed indictment filed by the Department of Justice in the Southern District of New York has revealed one element of Russia’s ongoing election interference campaign. According to the document, two Russian nationals identified as Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva were part of a misinformation campaign aimed at American voters.

Specifically, these two individuals provided editorial guidance and pushed pro-Russian talking points to a collection of American streamers and social media figures affiliated with Tenet Media in exchange for $10 million dollars’ worth of funding over several months.

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These two individuals were employed by Russia Today during this scheme and have been formally charged with Conspiracy to Violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act and Conspiracy to Commit Money Laundering. Tenet Media is owned by Lauren Chen, a millennial Canadian with close ties to Glen Beck’s “TheBlaze” and the conservative student organization “Turning Point USA.”

I’ll be frank - after doing a cursory search of the personalities involved in Tenet Media, I think, these people are morons. I have no idea why people think “Tim Pool” is an authority on anything and I pity anyone that uses these streams as their main source of news. However, it’s impossible to deny the size of Tenet Media’s audience.

Russia Is Waging War Against the West, but Most People Are in Denial

Even though Russia admits it is fighting a war against the “collective West,” leaders in the West prefer to dismiss such statements rather than muster up the political will to ensure Russia’s defeat.

The Russian government has clearly elaborated upon its earlier strategy of using bots and fake accounts to manipulate discourse on social media and has begun directly financing alternative media outlets in the United States and Europe.

Considering Tim Pool was willing to say that Ukraine was the enemy of the United States and that America should apologize to Russia, I’m sure the Russian government considered this operation to be a success - especially if no one at Tenet Media was able to conduct basic due diligence and discern why a “Hungarian businessman” wanted to invest $100,000 a week into their production.

While this investigation is ongoing, there are already several major takeaways that we can pull from the indictment. RT was pushing heavily for Tenet Media streamers to frame the terror attack in Moscow on Crocus City Hall as being the fault of the United States or Ukraine.

Not only does this indictment provide insight into the narratives pushed by the Russian government, but it also shows us the literal chain of command used in this operation: Afanasyeva contacted an unnamed “founder” of Tenet Media, wrote “I think we can focus on the Ukraine/U.S. angle .... the mainstream media spread fake news that ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack yet ISIS itself never made such statements. All terrorists are now detained while they were heading to the border with Ukraine which makes it even more suspicious why they would want to go to Ukraine to hide,” and by the next day an unnamed streamer was “happy to cover it.”

Additionally, investigators heavily cite Google searches, “Discord” conversations, and other digital evidence in the charging document. This suggests that Russian misinfo actors remain heavily reliant on commercially available digital services for their operations and for interfacing with their assets abroad.

Additionally, this also means that American law enforcement and counterintelligence task forces have filed numerous warrants and data preservation orders over the course of their investigation. We can expect similar forensic data will be cited in any forthcoming indictments on similar operations.

Misinformation operations in the United States will grow in frequency and intensity as we get closer to the election - and they may not be limited to Russian narratives aimed at MAGA republicans.

Iran is currently undertaking a misinfo campaign aimed at harming the GOP and recently the far-left pro-Hamas publication “The Grayzone” was found to have previously received funding from the Iranian government.

As Americans, we should recognize that the greatest threat to our country isn’t the military of an adversary, but instead the manipulation of our democracy by bad actors that agitate different elements of the political fringe. Our elections are not open season for America’s enemies - we need to secure our voting systems and do everything we can to track and fight misinformation online.

This piece is reprinted with permission from the author’s blog Why it Matters. See the original here.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.

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Alexander Vindman

Alexander Vindman, a career U.S. Army officer, served on the National Security Council as the director for Eastern European, Caucasus and Russian affairs, as the Russia political-military affairs officer for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and as a military attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.

6. The battle of Kursk hinges on the Russian railroad

Professionals - logistics.

The battle of Kursk hinges on the Russian railroad

Business Insider · by Michael Peck

Military & Defense

Analysis by Michael Peck

2024-09-08T10:00:02Z

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The impact of Ukraine's surprise Kursk battle and Russian efforts to counter it turn on the strained Russian railroad network. ALEXEY MALGAVKO/Reuters

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Ukraine has disrupted Russia's critical railroad systems near Kursk.
Russia's military response depends a railroad system that's in bad shape.
Ukraine can solidify its hold in the Kursk region by destroying train bridges.

Ukraine's Kursk offensive has done more than seize a Los Angeles-size territory and embarrass Russia. It also appears to be disrupting Russia's railroad system. And if the US accedes to Ukrainian demands to allow deeper strikes into Russia using American-made rockets, Russia's ability to move troops and supplies could be seriously damaged.

Much more so than in Western armies, Russia depends on railroads to transport troops and supplies rather than using trucks. Russian units don't have the organic transport capacity to operate far from railheads. The problem today is that assembling forces from around Russia — some 30,000 troops, according to Ukrainian estimates — to seal off the Ukrainian penetration is overloading rail stations in the Kursk area and creating shortages of locomotives.

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BelZhD, the union representing Belarusian railway workers, announced that as of August 12, Russian railway authority had asked its Belarusian counterpart not to dispatch trains to stations on the Orel-Kursk lines. This essentially severs rail links between Belarus and Russia.

"There is an accumulation of a large number of 'abandoned' trains (according to code 12 - the lack of a locomotive) at the stations of the Smolensk region of the Moscow Railway," the Belarusian union said.

"This circumstance also affects the rhythm of sending freight trains from the BZD in the direction of the Moscow Railways and leads to a violation of the schedule of traffic."

Having to reroute trains from Kursk has also created problems. The Ukrainian "breakthrough has led to a severe disruption in railway operations, paralyzing key routes across the country," according to an August 19 article by European business news site bne IntelliNews.

German warships to pass through Taiwan Strait this month: Report

08 Sep 2024 03:45AM

(Updated: 08 Sep 2024 06:49AM)

channelnewsasia.com

FRANKFURT: Two German warships are set to pass through the sensitive Taiwan Strait in the middle of this month, becoming the first German naval vessels to do so in 22 years, Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday (Sep 7).

Reuters reported last month that the warships were awaiting orders from Berlin to sail the strait, prompting a rebuke to Germany from Beijing.

Spiegel cited unspecified sources as saying Beijing would not be formally notified of the German ships' passage to emphasise that Berlin views the trip as normal.

Germany's defence ministry declined to comment.

While the United States and other nations, including Canada, have sent warships through the strait in recent weeks, it would be the German navy's first passage since 2002.

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and says it has jurisdiction over the nearly 180km-wide waterway in between. Taiwan strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s people can decide their future.

The Taiwan Strait is a major trade route through which about half of global container ships pass, and both the United States and Taiwan say it is an international waterway.

The commander of the German naval task group, Rear Admiral Axel Schulz, told Reuters last month that such a passage would demonstrate Germany's commitment to a rules-based order and the peaceful solution of territorial conflicts.

The two German vessels are taking part in exercises in the region with France, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and the United States.

Sailings through the waterway by foreign warships are regularly condemned by Beijing, which says they "undermine peace and stability" in the region.

Germany, for which both China and Taiwan are major trade partners, has joined other Western nations in expanding its military presence in the region in response to Beijing's growing territorial ambitions.

8. ‘Special forces-styled travel’? Changing face of mainland Chinese travellers triggers Hong Kong tourism rethink

Of course the headline was click bait for me though I regularly follow CHannel News Asia because they do some good reporting that the US media often misses about Asia. But I cannot figure out this article and the relationship of "Special Forces style" to travel. They must mean "travel light and freeze at night" -meaning they are advocating some kind of minimalist travel I cannot figure out what they mean. Or this is just a headline editor trying to create clickbait. (And the headline editor does not know the myths of Special Forces who are always seeking maximum per diem lodging and food)

‘Special forces-styled travel’? Changing face of mainland Chinese travellers triggers Hong Kong tourism rethink

Shifts in the age, priorities and perspectives of mainland tourists in Hong Kong are posing unique challenges for businesses in capturing their attention and spending. In the first of a two-parter, CNA explores how the city is coping on the tourism front.

08 Sep 2024 06:00AM

(Updated: 08 Sep 2024 01:22PM)

channelnewsasia.com · by Melody Chan

HONG KONG: At the edge of an elevated basketball court in Kennedy Town, crowds press up against a battered iron fence with smartphones and cameras in hand, jockeying for the perfect shot.

The goal is to capture the seascape of Belcher Bay, framed by the surrounding buildings. The photographers are Mandarin-speaking tourists, all in their 20s and 30s. For them, taking photos and “checking in” at these iconic spots are crucial parts of their travel itinerary.

Ms Tang Xueping from Shanghai takes a photo at a basketball court in Hong Kong's Kennedy Town. (Photo: CNA/Shiu Sze Wah)

Among them is Ms Tang Xueping, a 28-year-old sports teacher from Shanghai. She’s on a seven-day trip that includes an overnight stay in Macao.

“We ‘da ka’ (take photos at picture-perfect spots) almost every day,” she said, noting that their shopping purchases are limited to necessities.

This trend of “special forces-style travel” or “tezhong bingshi luyou” in Chinese - quickly moving from one location to another at pace and on a budget - is reshaping Hong Kong's post-pandemic tourism.

That’s especially as it gains traction among mainland Chinese travellers. Making up the bulk of visitors to the city, mainlanders have already been tightening their belts - and a younger demographic plus changing perspectives have impacted how much and what they spend their money on.

Mainland tourist Tang Xueping checks the photos she's taken at Hong Kong's Kennedy Town (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

In the face of changing mainland tourist numbers and profiles, local businesses have switched up their strategies. Tour groups have pivoted to offering more in-depth tours, while retailers are placing greater emphasis on lower-priced items.

As businesses in Hong Kong bear the brunt, the government is taking steps to turn things around. It’s prioritising tourism as a key driver of service exports, with a budget of HK$1.5 billion (US$191.7 million) allocated to attract “high-value tourists”.

Still, analysts say the city has its work cut out to reel in the mainland tourist dollar. They point out other factors like stiff competition from visa-free regional destinations like Singapore and Malaysia, a strong local currency and rising costs of living.

“If things like food are expensive, the place becomes less attractive. Tourists can find better places to stay at a lower price point, you will be judged based on the overall cost,” said Mr Simon Lee, an honorary institute fellow of the Asia Pacific Institute of Business at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK).

All eyes will be on how Hong Kong tourism fares during the summer school holidays in China - typically from early July to end-August - when students and parents often travel. CNA visited the city in late July, staying in hotels, visiting tourist hotspots, and speaking to various industry stakeholders to get a first-hand look at the situation on the ground.

EXPLORING AT THEIR OWN PACE

Unlike the pre-pandemic days when tour buses and luxury shopping dominated, tourists to Hong Kong - particularly young people - increasingly favour flexibility and exploration, say analysts.

“I think young people nowadays may not like going on organised tours because you have to gather at fixed times, which is less flexible. Attractions are easily accessible online now, and young people can read about them and decide which spots are more fun to visit,” said Ms Tang.

Mainlanders are the driving force of Hong Kong’s tourism. They’ve accounted for nearly 80 per cent of yearly visitor numbers since the Individual Visit Scheme launched in 2003, allowing them to visit the city on their own.

Like many other places, the COVID-19 pandemic exacted a hefty toll on arrivals, and recovery has been slow. Last year, Hong Kong saw 34 million visitors - only 52 per cent of the 2018 total.

Many youth travellers from the mainland prefer a free-and-easy routine over organised tours. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

The Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) has forecasted that the city will receive 46 million visitors this year. That would be a 35 per cent increase from last year, but still 70 per cent of 2018 levels.

Even as they continue to make up the majority, a different ilk of mainlanders has been visiting the city since the border reopened with the mainland in February 2023.

For a start, they’re largely younger. The “post-00" generation - born after 2000 - is making up a growing share.

Data from Chinese travel platform Qunar shows that among passengers flying from mainland China to Hong Kong, those aged 23 and below accounted for 35 per cent, compared to 28 per cent recorded in 2019.

Mainland tourist Gu Yufan takes photos in Kennedy Town. She planned her trip to Hong Kong using social media platforms like Xiaohongshu. (Photo: CNA/Shiu Sze Wah)

Literature PhD student Gu Yufan from Soochow University is spending three days in Hong Kong for a summer vacation with her mother and friends. Her itinerary includes visiting popular spots like Victoria Harbour and exploring the city.

“I planned my trip using social media like Xiaohongshu and also got recommendations from friends studying in Hong Kong,” the 24-year-old told CNA. “This is how I plan all my trips. it’s more relaxed, and I can rest whenever I feel tired.”

Official data shows this free-and-easy routine appeals to many youths, rather than the organised tours typically popular among the older generation.

Six out of 10 mainland visitors aged 16 to 25 years old went for a city walk around Hong Kong’s neighbourhood, according to HKTB’s latest Departing Visitor Survey. Of them, 53 per cent sought to experience the local lifestyle and culture.

Tourists crowd Tsim Sha Tsui Star Ferry Pier to watch a multimedia light show called "A Symphony of Lights". (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

MAINLAND TOURISTS SPENDING LESS

Mainland tourists to Hong Kong are also spending less.

According to an HKTB report, 53 per cent of mainland visitors are day-trippers, spending about HK$1,400 each - 42 per cent less than the HK$2400 spent in 2018. The remaining visitors, who stayed an average of 3.5 days in Hong Kong compared to three days in 2018, also spent less overall.

Changes in consumption behaviour are evident. Their spending on shopping has dropped to 49 per cent, 12 per cent lower than in 2018, while spending on hotels and restaurants has increased to 22 per cent and 20 per cent respectively, up from 15 per cent and 13 per cent in 2018.

Canton Road, once the world's second-most expensive retail location, has dropped in ranking. Footfall was sparse on a Sunday evening in late July. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

Local retailers are feeling the pinch.

Take Tsim Sha Tsui's Canton Road, a usually bustling thoroughfare lined with luxury shops. When CNA visited the area on a Sunday evening in late July, the area felt noticeably quiet, with the usual crowds of eager shoppers largely absent.

A clothing store employee on the street reported a 30 per cent drop in sales, while a cosmetic shop saw sales halved.

Big brands have also been hit. Sasa, Hong Kong’s largest cosmetic chain, has seen spending by mainland tourists at its 82 stores in Hong Kong and Macao dip by between 26 per cent and 45 per cent.

Once the world's second-most expensive retail location, Canton Road has dropped in ranking, with retail rents falling 39 per cent from pre-Covid levels to an average of US$1493 per square foot in 2022, according to a survey by Cushman & Wakefield.

Sasa has been adapting to new shopping trends, showcasing lower-priced items at storefronts and highlighting niche brands to attract customers. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

Experts note that the decline in tourism is influenced by several factors. In addition to changing consumer behaviour, China's economic slowdown and the strengthening of Hong Kong's currency - which is pegged to the US dollar - are also contributing factors.

The Hong Kong dollar is allowed to trade in a range of 7.75 to 7.85 against the greenback, which has been gaining amid still sticky inflation and strong growth - although recent developments suggest the tide could be turning.

Associate Professor Lisa C Wan at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management and the Department of Marketing at CUHK explained that China’s slower economic growth, high youth unemployment, and property bubble have impacted spending behaviour.

“Falling housing values have made people hesitant to spend, which affects tourism patterns.”

Mr Lee pointed to Hong Kong’s soaring costs of living in international rankings for the lack of attractiveness for the city.

Both experts also flagged competing regional destinations for mainland visitors, highlighting the allure of visa-free travel to Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

“The mainland visitors need to apply for entry into Hong Kong, (but) with visa-free policy it might be simpler for them just to travel abroad,” said Mr Lee.

STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE

At Mong Kok’s Ladies Market, a 1 km stretch of open-air stalls selling accessories and clothes, the scene is quiet on a Sunday evening. Most stall owners are idly scrolling through their phones, and several deserted stalls are present.

Stall owners idly scroll their phones at Mong Kok’s Ladies Market in Hong Kong. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

A 56-year-old stall owner who runs a clothing store at the junction of the street told CNA that business is now 70 per cent less than its peak two decades ago, with a steady decline over the past 10 years.

"It was very easy to make a living back then, as long as you were there," said the owner who only wanted to be known as Mr Miu.

Another stall owner Ms Chan has been selling accessories there for the past 10 years. The 40-year-old lamented that she is now earning "barely a fraction" of what she made before the pandemic.

Vacant stalls at Mong Kok’s Ladies Market in Hong Kong signal a downturn in business. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

Other businesses are adapting to the new tastes of travellers.

Prince Traveller, originally a cultural exchange centre focused on providing history and cultural education to local secondary schools, has shifted to offering in-depth tours to both local and foreign tourists.

The centre’s director Andy Lam emphasises the need to leverage Hong Kong’s strengths to remain competitive with nearby cities such as Shenzhen.

“How can we compete with them? Be more advanced? Look at what Shenzhen has become - they even stopped using cash. Create more fun? They have so many things to do there that we don’t have here,” he said.

“We can only win if we compete on nostalgia, history, and culture.”

Prince Traveller offers in-depth tours of Central Hong Kong for both local and foreign tourists. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

Tourism is crucial to employment in Hong Kong, but experts note that the protests and pandemic have severely disrupted the sector and hindered its recovery.

According to HKTB, tourism accounted for 4.5 per cent of the city’s GDP in 2018 but plummeted to 0.1 per cent by 2021. Meanwhile, employment in the sector shrank by a staggering 91 per cent from 257,000 to 22,500.

Assoc Prof Wan highlighted that by the end of 2022, 32 per cent of the 78,000 airport staff from 2019 had left the industry, according to the Hong Kong Airport Authority.

“Hong Kong was slow to reopen, and our high currency has led to complaints about prices, while manpower is still recovering,” she said.

Mr Johnny Lam, chairman of the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Union (HKFTU) Tourism Committee, said that initially, there was a shortage of tour guides as many had changed occupations during the pandemic.

However, the situation has improved as fewer mainland tourists opt for guided tours.

A total of about 570 inbound mainland tour groups, or an average of 145 per day, arrived in Hong Kong during the Labour Day Golden Week holiday period in May, according to the Hong Kong Immigration Department.

But this is still much lower than the 230 to 250 groups per day seen in 2019, as reported by the Travel Industry Council.

“In the past, a tour guide might be able to take four to five tours per month, covering about 20 days, but now, they have to take six to seven tours just to match the income they had before the pandemic,” said Mr Johnny Lam.

RETAILERS FINDING NEW SELLING POINTS

In retail, Sasa is adjusting to new shopping trends by prominently displaying lower-priced items at storefronts and featuring niche brands to pique interest.

“Mainland Chinese consumers are increasingly open to trying lesser-known niche brands. This enables the Group’s beauty consultants to be more effective in introducing the Group’s portfolio of exclusive brands that enjoy higher gross margins,” according to a Sasa spokesperson.

History and culture tour provider Prince Traveller is also exploring new avenues.

“We are thinking of organising an overnight stay at the floating fish raft,” said Mr Andy Lam during a tour in Central, hinting at possible additions like a folk song singer to enrich the experience.

While the company has logged a 50 per cent boost in business since COVID restrictions eased, he highlights the need for a shift in strategy.

“You must pivot your business model to survive,” Mr Andy Lam stated, adding that Hong Kong’s past focus on luxury goods like handbags no longer suffices.

Boutique items are showcased on shelves in Sasa's Tsim Sha Tsui outlet as a new selling point for mainland tourists. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

The local tour industry has faced notable challenges. According to the Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong, there were about 1,660 travel agencies pre-pandemic, but over 300 closed in 2022 as COVID-19 raged on. The tally was at about 1,400 in mid-August.

Walk in Hong Kong, a tour operator that targets English-speaking tourists, has also adapted. An early adopter of virtual tours, it avoided staff layoffs by focusing on high-spending clients who value quality experiences.

The company’s co-founder and CEO Paul Chi-yuen Chan noted the sector’s “tough time” but assured they’ve managed to “survive”.

Mr Johnny Lam is optimistic about tourism recovery, noting a rise in mainland tour groups to 6,450 in July - a 10 per cent increase from last year. “Development in tourism will be visible; the city will be more vibrant, boosting overall confidence,” he said.

“Hong Kong has the resources,” he concluded. “We need to unleash our strengths and offer a diverse range of products tailored to changing tourist tastes.”

Mr Andy Lam echoes this sentiment. “‘Poor tourism’ is just a gimmick term. These new tourists might actually spend even more than we do.”

Tourists take photos at Hong Kong Disneyland during the summer vacation in July 2024. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

HOW TOURISM SECTOR CAN IMPROVE

As mainland spending slows and becomes more targeted, attractions in Hong Kong are taking steps to grab a slice of the pie.

Outside the former Yau Ma Tei Police Station, crowds flock to photograph the iconic sign, many mimicking gun poses, reflecting the site's fame as a filming location. However, after snapping their photos, visitors often leave quickly.

Mr Johnny Lam from the HKFTU Tourism Committee pointed out that while the area includes historical sites like old theatres and markets, people only spend 10 minutes outside the police station.

He has proposed enhancing the site with museums and themed merchandise, like police teddy bears, to attract more visitors and cater to their spending habits.

Crowds gather outside the former Yau Ma Tei Police Station to photograph the iconic sign and mimic gun poses. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

The Hong Kong Police previously tested this idea with a pop-up store offering similar merchandise from last December to May. Mr Johnny Lam also suggests setting up a booth selling freshly cut fruit from the nearby wholesale market - so tourists have the option of both souvenirs and sustenance.

Mr Johnny Lam noted that effective revitalisation requires coordination among various authorities, saying: “You need different players to come together to consolidate things and revitalise the entire area.”

“Summer Chill” booths at Harbour City Mall in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

This summer, the Hong Kong government’s efforts to draw the tourist dollar have been visible.

“Summer Chill” booths at airports, hotels and malls offer triple discount coupons for transport, dining, and shopping. They’re part of the “Summer Chill Hong Kong” campaign, featuring 500,000 reward sets worth over HK$100 million in deals.

Tourism authorities announced in May that pyrotechnic and drone shows would be organised regularly, in line with festivals and mega-events. The first displays took place early that month, coinciding with China’s Labour Day Golden Week holiday period.

HKTB has also forged closer cooperation with Xiaohongshu to attract mainland tourists, with various joint initiatives set to be rolled out next year.

Heavily used by young mainland Chinese, Xiaohongshu has spurred business at some Hong Kong eateries and shops due to these venues being featured in users’ posts.

Restaurant chain Red Tea is one of them. Aleady popular with mainlanders before the pandemic, it is seeing an influx of these customers at its Yau Ma Tei branch.

Restaurant chain Red Tea, already popular with mainlanders before the pandemic, is now seeing an influx of these customers at its Yau Ma Tei branch. (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

While cheaper hotel rates nearby are a factor, posts on Xiaohongshu have kindled interest, shared Red Tea representative Hugo Chan, He added that post-pandemic, the demographic has shifted to younger visitors with a noticeable increase in spending.

“Before the pandemic, Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok outlets saw a 50-50 split between mainland tourists and locals, but this shifted to 90 per cent locals during the pandemic and is now back to 60 per cent mainland tourists,” he noted.

“Some younger customers will order many dishes, even if there are just four pax, they will order eight dishes, of course, I guess it is for ‘da ka’ (photo taking).

“Sometimes, a family of four will pass by, come in to put down their luggage, eat a pineapple bun with butter and a cup of milk tea, and leave, and they charge their phones.”

Instead of making use of its popularity on social media to do promotional stunts, Red Tea is taking netizen comments as feedback to improve on service quality.

“We actually didn’t do any of such actions (promotions), we only reflected on how we can improve our services based on their comments, how do we treat them, service them and in the long run, provide a better dining experience for the mainland visitors.”

At the same time, the city has warmly welcomed Beijing’s expansion of a solo traveller scheme. Starting from May 27, residents from eight mainland cities have been able to apply for the Individual Visit Scheme to travel to Hong Kong.

Assoc Prof Wan sees mega-events as key to attracting international tourists. The government has allocated HK$100 million for 2023-24 and 2024-25 to boost high-profile events, following the resumption of normal travel in February 2023.

Officials have said major events this year are set to increase from 150 to over 210, potentially drawing 1.7 million tourists. The 34th Hong Kong Book Fair, held on Jul 17, attracted 990,000 visitors and boosted per capita spending by 4.6 per cent to HK$912.

Victoria Harbour's iconic skyline, where Hong Kong’s tallest skyscraper beams the message: "Hong Kong welcomes you". (Photo: CNA/Melody Chan)

Mr Lee from CUHK argues that courtesy and price competitiveness are key to revitalising Hong Kong’s tourism industry. Complaints about poor service from restaurant waiters to taxi drivers are widespread on Xiaohongshu, hurting the city’s image.

In response, the Information Services Department has allocated HK$179.2 million to enhance Hong Kong’s profile. HKTB has released videos featuring stars like Louis Koo and Jessica Hester Hsuan, reviving the slogan “such attitudes in service are not enough these days.”

Despite this, Mr Lee believes the campaign is overdue. “(The campaign launch) is quite late. It’s very different from Shenzhen, where waiters serve you at your table,” he noted.

He also emphasised the need to tackle high accommodation costs, which he attributed to government taxation. Mr Lee proposed offering short-term rebates or tax exemptions to encourage longer stays.

“If a tourist spends HK$5,000 and receives a HK$1,000 rebate, it will make Hong Kong more competitive,” he said.

“It doesn’t have to be year-round. It could be for half the year or during peak seasons. Let tourists know about these reimbursements or tax rebates. While the impact might be modest, it serves as an incentive and helps bridge the gap with our competitors.”

MONEY “GOING UP NORTH”

Even as the evolving profiles of inbound tourists hog the limelight, the travel trends of Hong Kong residents are also raising eyebrows as they turn to mainland China.

Weekends often see an exodus of Hongkongers taking the 15-minute high-speed rail to Shenzhen for hotpot, massages, and shopping at warehouse supermarkets.

In 2023, Hong Kong residents made 53.34 million trips "heading north," according to immigration data.

A quarter of them spent an average of 1,000 yuan or more per day during their mainland visits, revealed a February survey by the Hong Kong Research Association.

Observers note that this has impacted local Hong Kong businesses, particularly F&B.

Mr Simon Wong Ka-wo, president of the Hong Kong Federation of Restaurants and Related Trades, told local media that around 300 eateries are closing in Hong Kong each month while fewer than 200 are opening.

He attributed this to Hongkongers "spending up north" in mainland China.

Mr Lee from CUHK is among the Hongkongers who cross the border to Shenzhen at least once a week. He noted that food there is priced at half of what it costs in Hong Kong, with better services.

He added that tourist spending has been affected by visitors opting for cheaper hotel options in Shenzhen and commuting to Hong Kong for day trips.

“The government has made significant efforts to attract tourists, but many visitors to the Greater Bay Area prefer low-cost day trips, opting to stay overnight in Shenzhen,” he said.

Assoc Prof Wan pointed out that Hong Kong’s smaller space compared to other Greater Bay Area cities might put it at a disadvantage for indoor facilities during the hotter and typhoon-prone months from May to November.

“We need to think of other solutions for activities that aren't affected by outdoor weather. In Shenzhen and Zhuhai, they have fewer problems due to their larger spaces … such as building theme parks. It's harder for Hong Kong, but there are ways to make it work.”

In addition to Shenzhen, Hainan, a southern island province often dubbed “China’s Hawaii”, has eroded Hong Kong's once-exclusive shopping allure.

In the first quarter of 2024, Hainan’s service trade grew by 29.62 per cent on-year, reaching US$2.03 billion, according to provincial government data.

To bolster Hong Kong’s appeal for duty-free shopping, the central government raised the duty-free threshold for mainland residents aged 18 and older from 5,000 yuan to 12,000 yuan per trip, effective from Jul 1.

Additionally, the limit may increase to 15,000 yuan for purchases made at duty-free stores at border crossings.

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channelnewsasia.com · by Melody Chan

9. In Russia’s Kursk, Ukraine Takes On a New Role: Occupier

It is one thing to attack and seize. It is another to occupy, stabilize, and secure as we know all too well. But Ukraine seems to be taking a humanitarian approach which is quite the opposite of the Russians.

Excerpts:

The story of the destitute 76-year-old woman’s transfer last month, with little more than a box of pills and a Russian passport, offers a glimpse at Ukraine trying out a new role in the 2½-year war: occupier.

Kyiv has captured more than 100 Russian towns and villages since it thrust into the Kursk region last month. President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News last week that Ukraine doesn’t want to hold the area forever, but said his forces would occupy it for now as a bargaining chip in any future talks to end the war.

With its hold on the region entering its second month, Ukraine says it is making efforts to differentiate its occupation of about 500 square miles of Russia from Moscow’s well-documented campaign of theft, execution and torture of civilians, and the deportation of thousands of children from occupied Ukraine.

In Russia’s Kursk, Ukraine Takes On a New Role: Occupier

A woman’s evacuation from her home in Russia shows how Ukraine is trying to differentiate its occupation from Moscow’s

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-russias-kursk-ukraine-takes-on-a-new-role-occupier-d8b77d95?mod=hp_lead_pos7

By Matthew LuxmooreFollow

| Photographs by Svet Jacqueline for WSJ

Updated Sept. 8, 2024 12:01 am ET

SUMY, Ukraine—After Ukrainian soldiers took over Maria Andreeva’s village in Russia’s Kursk region, her family received disturbing news. The retired farmworker had been executed by Ukrainian soldiers, a relative who fled the area told them—the kind of atrocity Russians have been warned to expect from the neighbor they invaded.

Then, Andreeva’s daughters, who live in Norway, saw a video that had gone viral online: It was their mother, taking delivery of a care package including several bottles of water from Ukrainian soldiers. The daughters contacted the soldiers online and begged for help evacuating her from the war’s latest flashpoint. The soldiers obliged, bringing her across the border into Ukraine.

The story of the destitute 76-year-old woman’s transfer last month, with little more than a box of pills and a Russian passport, offers a glimpse at Ukraine trying out a new role in the 2½-year war: occupier.

Kyiv has captured more than 100 Russian towns and villages since it thrust into the Kursk region last month. President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News last week that Ukraine doesn’t want to hold the area forever, but said his forces would occupy it for now as a bargaining chip in any future talks to end the war.

With its hold on the region entering its second month, Ukraine says it is making efforts to differentiate its occupation of about 500 square miles of Russia from Moscow’s well-documented campaign of theft, execution and torture of civilians, and the deportation of thousands of children from occupied Ukraine.

Zelensky has appointed a military commandant for the area and said that his forces observe humanitarian laws.

“It is very important for us to not be like those who brought war to us, with looting and rape,” Zelensky said in a press conference in Kyiv last week. “This is because we behave like humans.”

Maria Andreeva was born in a village on the Russian side of the border but lived in Sumy for many years.

False rumors like that of Andreeva’s execution spread daily on social media, as Russian officials and state television share reports of alleged Ukrainian war crimes without giving any evidence.

The only people entering Ukrainian-occupied parts of Kursk are soldiers and the few journalists Kyiv’s military has escorted into the area, some of whom have now had arrest warrants issued against them by Moscow for illegally crossing an internationally recognized border. The limited access makes it difficult to assess the situation there.

Ukrainian television has broadcast reports from occupied towns showing volunteers handing out food and water to the few thousand people who remain. In Sudzha, it has shown signs outside private homes alerting Ukrainian soldiers to the presence of civilians, and letters scrawled on walls spelling out the names of Ukrainian military units and the words “Glory to Ukraine.”

Stuck to the pedestal of a Lenin statue on the town square that was removed by Ukrainian forces are posters showing Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian cities, in full view of local residents who have lived for years under deep Russian censorship.

Ukrainian incursion

Ukrainian advances in Russia

Russian forces

Kyiv

KURSK

REGION

Kursk

Rylsk

RUSSIA

Sudzha

Sumy

UKRAINE

20 miles

20 km

Note: As of Sept. 3

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project

Andrew Barnett/WSJ

In Kursk region villages on the Russian-controlled side of the front line, CCTV footage apparently showing Russian soldiers ransacking a phone store and goods warehouse has been denounced by Russian public figures after it appeared on local media. “To all the idiots who wear military uniforms and engage in looting,” wrote Roman Alekhin, a popular blogger and adviser to the Kursk regional governor, “you’re complete scum and the only punishment for you is death.” The footage couldn’t be independently verified.

When Kyiv’s troops crossed into Kursk, tens of thousands of people fled. But no humanitarian corridors emerged for the 20,000 people Russia says were left behind. The relatives of some residents have taken to social media asking Russia and Ukraine for help in getting their loved ones out before their towns are destroyed by the fighting.

This week, Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces published a video showing residents of occupied towns complaining of a lack of water, power and cell connection. Ukrainian troops tell them that Kyiv is ready to open a humanitarian corridor that would allow these people to leave for Russia, but that Russia isn’t.

The Kremlin and Russia’s Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to requests for comment. Asked about the situation in Kursk on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow should think first of the people affected by the fighting and said the Russian military was doing all it could to oust the Ukrainian occupiers. He didn’t mention humanitarian corridors.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has requested access into the Ukrainian-held area, a spokesman for the organization said, but it needs permission from both parties to enter.

Ukraine last month launched a hotline for Kursk residents who want safe passage to Ukraine, but it has not said how many Russians it has transferred. Ukrainian media has reported the case of an 89-year-old woman taken to the nearby Ukrainian city of Sumy by Ukrainian soldiers. A Ukrainian military official said another heavily pregnant Russian woman was taken from the Russian village of Lebedevka to Sumy, where she gave birth before returning home.

For Andreeva, it all started with that viral video.

Two days into Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk, a bearded junior sergeant who goes by the call sign Perchik entered the garden of her home in the border village of Sverdlikovo. His unit was scouring occupied territory for Russian soldiers and Perchik filmed his brief exchange with Andreeva.

The Ukrainian city of Sumy sits close to the border with Russia’s Kursk region.

People moved freely between the city and the Kursk region when Russia and Ukraine were both Soviet republics.

The woman, who is dressed in a worn apron, rubber shoes, and a colorful headscarf, asks Perchik in Ukrainian for something to drink. Moments later, another soldier is shown handing her several bottles of water.

“Tomorrow we’ll bring you a couple more packs of water, and we’ll bring you various things to eat,” Perchik says, adding that his group will enter her home for a brief inspection before continuing on their way.

The clip was viewed hundreds of thousands of times online. Ukrainians remarked on how Andreeva and other Kursk residents filmed on camera by Ukrainian troops were speaking a mixture of Ukrainian and Russian typical of parts of Ukraine.

At the time, Andreeva’s daughters, Elena and Natasha Andreeva, had begun mourning her apparent killing. They lost contact with her after Aug. 6, and then a relative who was evacuated deeper into Russia wrote to Natasha saying her mother was one of several villagers executed by Ukrainian forces, echoing the kind of unsubstantiated story rife in Russian TV coverage.

After days of despondency, they came across the video of their mother. Desperate to get her to safety, they contacted the Telegram channel that published it and were advised to film a clip addressed to Andreeva. Perchik showed it to her during his next visit to Sverdlikovo.

“We haven’t slept for two weeks,” Elena says in the video, as Natasha weeps beside her. “You’re cut off. You’ve been abandoned. You’re in the gray zone now. Whatever happens, you have to leave.”

Andreeva had always viewed the Russian-Ukrainian border, which runs just several hundred yards from her house, as an artificial boundary. Like thousands of other local residents, she had spent decades crossing between Russia and Ukraine.

“We all used to be friends, and now because of some idiot, we’re fighting each other,” Andreeva, a dual Russian-Ukrainian citizen, said in an interview.

Maria Andreeva moved back to Russia in 2004, to care for her father.

Born in Sverdlikovo shortly after World War II, she moved to Sumy at the age of 20 and married, taking up work at a factory but traveling every Friday with her daughters to stay with her parents in Sverdlikovo. Ukraine and Russia were then republics of the Soviet Union, and no frontier existed.

“We spent our childhoods running barefoot across fields that are now cut through by a state border,” Elena, a 53-year-old, said in a phone interview from Norway. “We didn’t know where Ukraine ends, and where Russia begins.”

Andreeva moved back to Sverdlikovo in 2004, more than a decade after the Soviet Union collapsed, to look after her ailing father. After his death, she took a Russian passport and began caring for the family farm in the village. When Ukrainian forces surged into the Kursk region, she was living alone with a collection of animals and sustaining herself on the produce of her fields.

She didn’t want to leave. For days, the Ukrainian soldiers warned her that her village may soon be razed by Russian forces intent on pushing them out. On Aug. 21, she finally traveled past the unmanned, destroyed Russian border point with Perchik, pointing out en route the Ukrainian villages she has known since childhood.

In the courtyard of a Soviet-era housing district in Sumy that afternoon, where a reporter met and interviewed her, Andreeva climbed out of a Ukrainian military vehicle into the embrace of her sobbing sister, Galina Yeryomina, who lives in Ukraine. A Ukrainian official photographed both women’s documents and Yeryomina took Andreeva to her home.

Elena, who will travel to Ukraine this month to be with her mother, says Andreeva is having a tough time adapting to life in Ukraine. She worries for her farm, where there is no one to feed her animals or dig out the potatoes she planted. Andreeva declined to give further interviews after her transfer to Ukraine, afraid of retribution if she ever goes back to Russia.

“She’s a woman of the land. The village is her life,” Elena said. “She doesn’t understand that her village may disappear from the map.”

Maria Andreeva walks with her sister Galina Yeryomina after she was evacuated to Ukraine from Russia.

Ievgeniia Sivorka contributed to this article.

Write to Matthew Luxmoore at matthew.luxmoore@wsj.com

10. China Is Becoming Much Harder for Western Scholars to Study

China Is Becoming Much Harder for Western Scholars to Study

Some researchers revert to Mao-era techniques as Beijing curtails access; suspicions in Washington threaten to exacerbate knowledge gap

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-is-becoming-much-harder-for-western-scholars-to-study-c76a7b9e?mod=hp_listb_pos2

By Chun Han WongFollow

Updated Sept. 8, 2024 12:01 am ET

SINGAPORE—While China asserts a more muscular influence on global affairs, Western experts face growing constraints in their efforts to study the emerging superpower.

Scholars researching everything from urban development to religious belief in China say they are running into barriers—many erected by Beijing but some arising at home—that increasingly hamper their work.

A relentless tightening of political controls by Chinese leader Xi Jinping has curtailed access to even routine information and throttled research into topics that were once open. Interactions between people in China and foreigners are subject to intensifying state surveillance, stymying the flow of ideas.

Those obstacles have led some China scholars to change their fields of study, or reprise research techniques developed during the Mao Zedong era, when the country was largely closed off to the rest of the world.

A sharp rise in anti-China sentiment in the U.S. and other Western countries is compounding the difficulties, according to many scholars. Some say they fear being denigrated for their association with China. Money is also getting harder to come by, with new data showing U.S. federal funding for China-focused research falling markedly in recent years.

Some academics worry that a decline in China studies will make it more difficult for the U.S. and other democracies to manage relations with one of the world’s most consequential nations, while Beijing continues building expertise on open societies in the West.

“We just don’t have the expertise on China that China has on us,” said Rory Truex, a politics scholar at Princeton University.

Some academics have reported finding it harder to conduct in-person interviews and archival research in China. Photo: Xu Chang/ Xinhua/ Getty Images

Concerns over data control and researchers’ safety have been sticking points in U.S.-China negotiations over the renewal of a landmark bilateral science and technology agreement that sets terms for academic cooperation. A short-term extension expired late last month, though a senior Biden administration official said the two countries remain in communication on the pact, including “strengthened provisions for transparency, and scientific data reciprocity.”

Allowing the agreement to lapse could make it even harder for U.S.-based scholars to do work in China, as they would no longer be able to count on either government’s commitment to facilitating access.

Conditions for Western scholars of China have deteriorated steadily since Xi took power in 2012, but worsened further during the Covid-19 pandemic. China’s border closures obliterated on-the-ground research by foreign academics, while many Chinese scholars couldn’t go abroad. Chinese universities also controlled cross-border conversations on videoconferencing platforms.

A growing number of foreign academics have returned to China since it reopened its borders in early 2023. But some say they have faced difficulties when entering or leaving the country, being held up for hours by immigration officials who grilled them about their research.

Other researchers say they are hesitant to visit at all because of security risks for them and any Chinese people they speak to. They cited China’s detentions of foreign nationals on alleged national-security grounds in recent years, as well as the disappearances of some Japan-based Chinese academics.

Several scholars who have returned to China report finding a bleaker landscape than before. Social scientists and historians, for instance, found it harder to conduct in-person interviews, archival research and other fieldwork that they traditionally rely on.

Ke Li, an associate professor at the City University of New York’s John Jay College who studies gender and legal issues, said on previous trips she was able to talk directly with local judges and sometimes slip inside courtrooms to observe trials. Now, she said, that has become virtually impossible.

“For an ethnographer, that has almost like a death penalty,” Li said.

Pudong Library in Shanghai.

The challenge of carrying out research in China is even greater for young scholars without a deep network of local contacts.

Some Chinese researchers stopped sharing data with foreign counterparts to avoid violating data-security laws, complicating collaboration and peer-review processes for assessing research quality. The uncertainty over broadly worded data-security regulations “has brought anxiety and nervousness,” said a professor at a leading university in Beijing.

After interviewing more than a dozen China scholars in North America about their recent research experiences, the New York-based nonprofit American Council of Learned Societies reported last year that several had completely changed their areas of study because of the barriers they faced.

Emily Baum, a co-author of that report and an associate professor of Chinese history at University of California, Irvine, said she had planned to visit China in 2020 on a Fulbright grant to study how the traditional practice of fortunetelling evolved and remained popular. But she discarded those plans due to China’s Covid border controls, as well as increasing sensitivities around religion.

“I was not entirely confident that I would be able to find many materials anymore,” said Baum, who switched to researching the practice of acupuncture in the U.S.

Academic surveys have become more difficult to run in China. Fewer local survey firms are willing to work with foreign clients due to political sensitivities, said Reza Hasmath, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, who recently received quotes as high as $50,000 from Chinese vendors to run a survey that cost $10,000 or less a decade ago—a surge that could price out some researchers.

A rethinking of support for Chinese studies in Washington is compounding the difficulties.

The Trump administration halted funding of Fulbright academic-exchange programs to China, in response to Beijing’s curtailing of civil liberties in Hong Kong. The Justice Department’s defunct China Initiative, which targeted security threats from Beijing and resulted in a series of failed prosecutions of U.S.-based academics, also fueled concerns among scholars.

The number of China-related research projects funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation fell by more than half from the 2012-2017 period to the 2018-2023 period, with the declines most pronounced in social and economic sciences, according to a forthcoming working paper by Princeton’s Truex and his research partner. They also found that NSF grants supporting field research in China fell by nearly 75% over the same time periods.

It wasn’t clear whether the decline was due to a reluctance to support China-focused research, or to scholars choosing not to seek funding for China-related projects out of fear or inconvenience.

Some American universities have set new procedures for reviewing whether their faculty can accept flights, accommodation and speaking fees paid by Chinese hosts when attending conferences, or even barred them outright from receiving such perks, said Andrew Mertha, director of the China Studies Program at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “This is partly out of a legitimate fear of losing U.S. government research support.”

A woman in traditional clothing near the Songzanlin Monastery in Yunnan province, China. Sensitivities around religion are among the concerns for Western academics. Photo: Alex Plavevski/Shutterstock

For students who plan to go into government service, “spending time in China has a direct negative effect on their ability to receive security clearance,” Mertha said.

The U.S. National Security Council didn’t respond to queries on such China-related scrutiny.

Heightened challenges in China studies are affecting scholarly output. Editors at several Western academic journals say they are seeing more submissions of studies that rely on data-driven quantitative analyses rather than ethnographic research.

The growing reliance on data is generating “research that sometimes isn’t necessarily interesting or important,” as academics work around whatever data sets they can access, said Timothy Hildebrandt, a London School of Economics associate professor and an editor of the China Quarterly, a prestigious U.K.-based academic journal.

Some researchers are looking to the past for workarounds. One approach is studying time periods before Communist rule. Another is dusting off Mao-era research techniques, such as textual analysis of party documents, state-media reports and other material.

“It is an ‘analog’ approach in an ever-digitalized world,” which requires an appreciation of nuance and subtlety honed through “endless immersion in often impossibly monotonous written sources,” said Mertha, the Johns Hopkins professor, who has organized workshops where Mao-era experts shared their methods with younger scholars.

Others are turning to modern technologies. Lauren Restrepo, an anthropologist who studies urban development in authoritarian states, said she likely isn’t able to return to China given the sensitivities around her research, which analyzes how Chinese authorities use urban planning to assert control over ethnic Uyghurs and other Muslim communities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.

Restrepo, an assistant professor at Bryn Mawr College in Pennsylvania, now relies on “remote sensing”—reviewing sources such as satellite imagery, government documents, news and social media—to conduct research. “It is an act of desperation,” she said. “You just do what’s possible.”

Some scholars say they can still do useful fieldwork in China by stepping around sensitive topics and relying on local relationships, built over years or even decades. But the prognosis is grimmer for junior scholars and doctoral students, who have less experience and funding. A sharp decline in the number of American students in China during the pandemic and the lack of a significant post-Covid rebound have also raised concerns over the long-term pipeline of China expertise.

“We don’t know whether in ten years China will be America’s enemy, competitor, or perhaps even friend,” said Michael Szonyi, a Harvard University historian who traveled to China in August 2023 for an extended research trip after an almost four-year absence. “Do we really think that under any of these scenarios, it is better that we know less about China rather than more?”

The Trump administration halted funding of Fulbright academic-exchange programs to China. Photo: CFOTO/Sipa USA/Reuters

Write to Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com

11. Biden decision to kill Nippon Steel deal could spark legal challenge

On the one hand there is the impact on the Japan-US alliance. On the other hand what will happen to US Steel if this deal is not approved? Will US Steel fail? Will a US company buy it instead?

Biden decision to kill Nippon Steel deal could spark legal challenge

Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel are preparing for a legal fight if the White House blocks their deal over national security issues.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/08/nippon-steel-us-steel-legal-challenge/

By David J. Lynch

September 8, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

A decision by President Joe Biden to kill Nippon Steel’s planned acquisition of U.S. Steel could ignite a legal fight over a corporate takeover that has become an election-year drama and threatens to complicate relations with one of the United States’ closest allies.

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Both companies say privately that the Biden administration has politicized the interagency process that reviews foreign companies’ purchases of U.S. assets to gain the United Steelworkers union’s backing for Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) recently informed both companies that it believes the deal would harm U.S. national security. Both Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel hotly contest that finding and have suggested a willingness to fight an eventual presidential verdict.

“The parties will challenge it. They will go to court and once you go into court, then all of the stuff that has been confidential and that is not going to make [the government] look good, will be out there for the whole world to see,” said one person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The administration’s handling of Nippon Steel’s bid has been unusual enough to invite legal action, according to several CFIUS specialists. But a courtroom challenge could face a narrow path to success.

In March, Biden publicly said that he opposed the sale of U.S. Steel to a foreign company.

“U. S. Steel has been an iconic American steel company for more than a century, and it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated,” he said at the time.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce called the president’s remarks “inappropriate and counterproductive,” accusing Biden of politicizing the CFIUS process.

“This looks abnormal. This is not the way the process normally works,” said Rick Sofield, who was the Justice Department’s CFIUS representative from 2008 to 2018 and participated in the review of more than 1,000 transactions.

The committee typically develops what it calls a “risk-based analysis” of any transaction, weighing the national security threats and vulnerabilities it poses. The analysis, which includes intelligence community input and information from the parties, serves as the basis for a formal recommendation to the president.

By appearing to prejudge the case in March, the president may have opened the committee to significant legal risk, said Sofield, now a partner at Debevoise & Plimpton in New York.

In the wake of a June Supreme Court ruling that overturned the “Chevron doctrine,” courts also are less inclined to defer to government agencies. If a judge finds the committee’s national security arguments unreasonable, it could result in a decision that would curtail the committee’s powers, Sofield said.

As the CFIUS process in recent weeks seemed to be moving toward killing the deal, the companies wrote to the panel asking to withdraw their submission. By withdrawing a filing, companies can effectively reset the committee’s clock and gain more time to make their case.

But CFIUS did not reply to the withdrawal request, according to two people familiar with the matter, who described the failure as curious.

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A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on that account.

Biden, who bills himself as the most pro-union president in history, secured the United Steelworkers’ endorsement in March. After Harris replaced him on the ticket, the union — which has opposed the Nippon Steel takeover — announced its backing for her in July.

The union’s organizational muscle is a key to Democratic hopes of winning Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes in November.

On Wednesday, U.S. Steel said it would “pursue all possible options under the law” to close the deal. Nippon Steel said it “strongly believes that the U.S. government must appropriately handle procedures on this matter in accordance with the law.”

Under the 1950 Defense Production Act, which established CFIUS, presidential decisions in cases such as this one are not subject to judicial review. Judges, however, may scrutinize the process that the committee follows to ensure that it protects the parties’ constitutional rights to due process.

In CFIUS matters, the government “is generally seen as judge, jury and executioner, which is why it’s so important that they follow the facts and make the correct substantive analysis and conclusions based on those facts,” said Alexis Early, a partner at Jenner & Block in Washington.

In 2012, President Barack Obama blocked Ralls Corp., which was owned by two Chinese citizens, from buying four American wind farms in Oregon, which were located near a U.S. military installation. Ralls that year filed the first federal lawsuit challenging a CFIUS decision, but ultimately reached a settlement with the government.

Biden’s decision to nix the Nippon Steel bid came after CFIUS wrote both companies detailing its conclusion that the acquisition raised national security concerns. The committee has yet to deliver its final recommendation to the White House, Karine Jean-Pierre, the president’s press secretary, said on Thursday. No date has been set for any presidential announcement on the deal.

CFIUS, an interagency panel chaired by the Treasury Department, said the acquisition could lead to “a reduction in domestic steel production capacity,” according to a person who had seen the letter and spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Nippon Steel’s takeover of the third-largest steelmaker in the United States could interrupt supplies for what CFIUS described as “sectors critical to national security, particularly transportation, infrastructure, construction and agriculture.”

Nippon Steel has challenged that conclusion, insisting for months that the acquisition will increase domestic steel output, thanks to billions of dollars in new investment.

Independent analysts also doubt that U.S. Steel’s sale to a company in Japan — a major U.S. ally for decades — raises any real security worries. The Pentagon’s annual steel requirements consume just 3 percent of total U.S. production, according to the Defense Department.

But CFIUS, a secretive committee that discloses few details of its operations, determined that the acquisition would imperil the U.S. industry’s ability “to meet the full spectrum of national security requirements.”

Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel dispute that conclusion, which also left some independent experts puzzled.

“Where many of us CFIUS practitioners are confused is, it’s like they’re adding one plus one and getting seven,” said Early.

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By David J. Lynch

David J. Lynch is a staff writer on the financial desk who joined The Washington Post in November 2017 after working for the Financial Times, Bloomberg News and USA Today.follow on X @davidjlynch

12. Navy’s recruitment strategy should inspire other branches to act Rep. Tony Gonzales

Excerpts:

As a member of the House Appropriations Committee, I have worked extensively to secure funding that will advance this goal for our veterans, service members and their families. One of the initiatives I have championed is an increase in the Family Separation Allowance, or FSA, from $250 to $400 per month. This vital change, enacted as part of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, represented the first increase in two decades for military families separated as a result of duty station assignments. This long-overdue adjustment ensures our military families receive the support they deserve during challenging times of separation.

Throughout our history, multiple generations of service members have joined the ranks to fight for our freedoms. I have not lost sight of the fact that pages of my story would have looked very different had I not been given the opportunity to enlist.

The Navy is the only service to date that has reopened the option to recruit those who lack a high school diploma but are otherwise qualified to join the service. For the sake of military readiness, I encourage all services to follow suit. You never know when the next recruit may become a leader in the service or walk the halls of Congress.

Navy’s recruitment strategy should inspire other branches to act

militarytimes.com · by Rep. Tony Gonzales · September 7, 2024

For over half my life, I’ve served our country. Before representing Texas’ 23rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, I served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years.

My grandfather, Jesus Antonio Pena, was a World War II Army veteran and later worked at Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. He served 30 years as a civil servant on base as an electrician, which propelled our family into the middle class through his service. When my grandfather passed, life dealt me a tough hand. I have lived on my own since I was 15, working two or three jobs at a time to keep my head above water. When I was a half-credit away from graduating high school, I dropped out.

I always knew I was going to serve. I went to the Army recruiter first, and they turned me away because I didn’t have a high school diploma or a GED. My cousin, who was in the Navy, suggested I meet with a Navy recruiter. The thought never crossed my mind, as I didn’t know how to swim and had no interest in becoming a sailor. With a little convincing, I met with a Navy recruiter in San Antonio — that decision changed the course of my life. A few weeks later, I was pushed into the deep end of the pool and learned how to swim at Naval Station Great Lakes.

As a cryptologist in the Navy, I went on to serve five years in Iraq and Afghanistan and deployed throughout the Middle East and Asia. I received my high school diploma while stationed at NAS Pensacola, Florida, and my master’s degree while in service as I rose through the ranks from E1 to E9 as master chief petty officer.

The men and women I served with had their own life stories, but the common denominator that tied us together was our love of country. For young Americans who embody the spirit of patriotism, want to work hard, and answer a higher calling — the military is an excellent path with endless opportunities.

Unfortunately, our military is currently facing a recruitment and retention crisis. In fiscal 2023, three military service branches — the Army, Navy and Air Force — failed to meet recruitment goals.

As a master chief, I never judged my fellow sailors based on their race, religion, ethnicity, or other personal attributes. Merit rules the day and the drive to propel our mission forward is the most important aspect of the job. After all, I joined the Navy through a program that allowed individuals to enlist without a high school degree.

Earlier this year, the Navy announced that it is bringing back a similar program — opening the door for more young recruits to begin a career in the military. Through the addition of several new recruiting programs, the Navy was able to hit its recruitment goal for this year. I urge all service branches to consider a similar strategy.

That said, recruiting new service members is only half the battle. We must also focus on retaining the talent we already have in our military. Poor quality of life is a deciding factor in leaving any employer. Living conditions, access to healthy food, child care, housing maintenance and a lack of clean workspaces have pushed many talented service members to find other opportunities. The men and women who answered the call to serve deserve better initiatives to improve their quality of life.

As a member of the House Appropriations Committee, I have worked extensively to secure funding that will advance this goal for our veterans, service members and their families. One of the initiatives I have championed is an increase in the Family Separation Allowance, or FSA, from $250 to $400 per month. This vital change, enacted as part of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, represented the first increase in two decades for military families separated as a result of duty station assignments. This long-overdue adjustment ensures our military families receive the support they deserve during challenging times of separation.

Throughout our history, multiple generations of service members have joined the ranks to fight for our freedoms. I have not lost sight of the fact that pages of my story would have looked very different had I not been given the opportunity to enlist.

The Navy is the only service to date that has reopened the option to recruit those who lack a high school diploma but are otherwise qualified to join the service. For the sake of military readiness, I encourage all services to follow suit. You never know when the next recruit may become a leader in the service or walk the halls of Congress.

U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales represents Texas’ 23rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Gonzales is the highest-ranked enlisted service member to ever serve in Congress.

13. CIA chief: Russian elite left questioning war after Kursk incursion

Are they? If accurate, what can we do to exploit this? Can we separate the elite from Putin? Can they be empowered to act against Putin? Or is that a pipe dream? Has Director Burns has sent a request for a presidential finding to the White House so he can take action.

CIA chief: Russian elite left questioning war after Kursk incursion

kyivindependent.com · by Dominic Culverwell · September 7, 2024

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has rattled Russia’s elite but Russian President Vladimir Putin still has a tight grip on the country, said CIA Director William Burns at the Financial Times’ Weekend festival in London on Sept. 7.

Speaking alongside MI6 Head Richard Moore, Burns said that the incursion, launched on Aug. 6, was “a significant tactical achievement,” boosting morale in Ukraine as well as unveiling Russia’s weakness. Notably, it has raised difficult questions for Russia’s rich and powerful about “where this is all headed,” he said.

However, both Burns and Moore agree that the incursion may not have loosened Putin’s grip. But Moore told the audience not to “confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip,” pointing out that Kursk has brought the war to the doorstep of “ordinary Russians.”

The MI6 chief also said it’s “too early” to tell how long Ukraine can sustain control over the territory in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian officials and political analysts have noted that the incursion boosts Kyiv’s leverage in potential peace talks.

"Is the Kursk operation connected to the second peace summit? Yes, it is. Because the Kursk operation is one of the points of Ukraine's victory plan," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Aug. 27.

Regarding Putin’s nuclear threats, both said the West should not take the warnings lightly but should also not be needlessly intimated. Burns said that Putin will “continue saber-rattling from time to time.”

Putin warned in July that Russia would deploy short and intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles if American missile systems capable of striking Russian territory were deployed in Germany.

Recent media reports claim that Iran sent hundreds of Fath-360 short-range missiles to Russia. Experts told the Kyiv Independent that these tactical missiles are most likely to be employed at the front line.

Burns suggested that Russia has not yet used Iranian short-range ballistic missiles on Ukraine. However, added that an Iranian shipment would signify “a dramatic escalation.”

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 7 that if Iran provides ballistic missiles to Russia, "it will have devastating consequences for Ukrainian-Iranian bilateral relations."

"The deepening military-technical cooperation between Russia and Iran poses a serious security threat not only to Ukraine but also to the whole of Europe, the Middle East, and the world," the Foreign Ministry commented.

Russian offensive near Pokrovsk slowing down, media reports

Citing data from defense analysts, Agentstvo backed Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s recent claims that Moscow’s push near the key town is losing steam.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

kyivindependent.com · by Dominic Culverwell · September 7, 2024

14. Australian links revealed in global defence company scandal involving China, Russia and Iran

Australian links revealed in global defence company scandal involving China, Russia and Iran

ABC.net.au · by GAnalysis by Gareth Hutchens · September 7, 2024

An American weapons company made illegal technology transfers to Australia at the same time some of its staff members breached strict US regulations by taking their work laptops containing sensitive military secrets into Russia and Iran.

Last week, defence giant RTX, formerly known as Raytheon, agreed to pay a $US200 million ($300 million) fine following 750 violations of the Arms Export Control Act and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), including exchanging data and products with prohibited countries such as China.

US State Department documents reveal several of the voluntarily declared breaches involved exports "without authorisation" of "classified defence articles" to Australia and other nations, related to military programs such as Tomahawk Cruise Missile and the RIM-162 Evolved SeaSparrow Missile.

Other violations contained in the State Department's "Proposed Charging Letter" included "Unauthorised Exports Related to Sensitive Military Platforms Resulting from Misclassification" which were sent to Australia between 2017 and 2022.

Leadership overhaul at Raytheon australia amid government tensions

Photo shows A NASAMS AMRAAM missile is launched from a High Mobility Launcher.

Senior executives working for a large US-owned defence company helping to establish a missile production enterprise in Australia have resigned amid tensions with the Albanese government over the multi-billion-dollar project.

During this time, several RTX employees also travelled to "proscribed destinations" such as Russia and Iran where they logged onto work laptops containing information on sensitive US military programs including the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence System, B-2 Spirit bomber and F-35 aircraft.

In a 2021 incident, an RTX worker logged onto his company laptop, which contained aircraft secrets, while visiting St Petersburg, then reported to the cybersecurity team several "alerts" that were "incorrectly dismissed" as false positives because of a transition to a new cybersecurity tool.

Another violation involved providing Chinese citizens information about "an aluminium display housing component of the F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft" in Shanghai, data that was later determined to be more sensitive than the RTX employees initially believed.

Since 2022, RTX's local subsidiary, Raytheon Australia, has been a strategic partner for the federal government's Guided Weapons and Explosives Ordnance Enterprise (GWEO), which aims to "accelerate the establishment of a local long-range guided weapons and munitions manufacturing industry".

Pat Conroy has announced Kongsberg as a GWEO strategic partner but insists Raytheon is still a significant supplier for Australia. (ABC News: Justin Hewitson)

The company was announced as an inaugural GWEO strategic partner by former defence minister Peter Dutton along with US company Lockheed Martin, but earlier this year Raytheon Australia's Managing Director and other members of the leadership team were sacked without public explanation.

There is no suggestion that the removal of Raytheon Australia's leadership team by RTX in late May this year is in any way linked to the corporation's export violations in the United States.

This week, Raytheon Australia referred all enquiries from the ABC about the US export violations to its parent company, RTX Corporation, but a global media relations spokesperson declined to answer specific questions.

"[Last month's] action is in line with the company's expectations, which we disclosed during the company's second-quarter earnings report on July 25, 2024," the RTX representative said.

An Australian Defence Department spokesperson said it was aware of the recent settlement between the US Government and RTX Corporation but it was "not appropriate" to comment on the details.

"Defence works across government and cooperates closely with international partners, including the United States, in regulating the export and supply of goods and technology controlled on the Defence and Strategic Goods List."

During a Senate Estimates hearing in June, Greens senator David Shoebridge demanded to know whether security clearances for the five Raytheon executives had been cancelled and whether the company had asked the department to do so.

In a response recently tabled to Federal Parliament, the department said the Australian Government Security Vetting Agency (AGSVA) did not publicly comment on individuals but: "Defence can confirm that Raytheon Australia has complied with all vetting and Defence Industry Security Program requirements."

Last month, the Albanese government announced that Norwegian company Kongsberg would become the third strategic partner for the GWEO project, but Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy denies suggestions that the new European addition has essentially replaced Raytheon Australia.

"As we expand GWEO, it's natural that we align and form strategic partnerships with companies that supply significant parts of our inventory," Mr Conroy said on Thursday while opening a Kongsberg factory.

"And those three companies clearly at the moment are Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Kongsberg."

Posted 18h ago18 hours agoSat 7 Sep 2024 at 7:08pm

ABC.net.au · by GAnalysis by Gareth Hutchens · September 7, 2024

15. Dracarys! Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache'

Dracarys! Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache'

Ukrainian forces have begun using fire-spewing drones against Russian positions in tree lines and forests.

kyivpost.com · by TVP World · September 8, 2024

by TVP World | September 8, 2024, 8:48 am

Photo: NOELreports, Twitter.

Ukrainian forces have begun using fire-spewing drones against Russian positions in tree lines and forests.

Menacingly dubbed ‘dracarys drones’ in reference to HBO’s Game of Thrones in which the word is used as a command to order dragons to breathe fire, the new piece of hardware rains down molten pieces of metal on its targets.

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Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.

With aid-starved Ukrainian soldiers along the frontline being forced to innovate, the new terror weapon is the brainchild of a Ukrainian start-up company producing explosive devices, including thermite charges, designed to be delivered by drones.

Although the weapon is unlikely to cause personal injury unless in the case of a direct hit, it deprives the Russians of cover, exposing them to Ukrainian artillery, as well as potentially seriously affecting morale.

A video shared on social media by Ukraine’s 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, shows a tree line occupied by Russian forces sprayed by a white-hot flame from a drone that is also dropping munitions below.

As the drone swiftly flies away after delivering its payload, the trees and adjacent fields are left on fire.

️Ukrainian FPV drone burns Russian positions with thermite. pic.twitter.com/NDVrQAbrRN

— MilitaryNewsUA (@front_ukrainian) September 2, 2024

Other videos show the Ukrainians using small and agile FPV (first-person view) drones to ignite forests used by the Russians for cover.

KHORNE GROUP within the 116th Mechanized Brigade demonstration the new dracarys drone, dropping flammable substances over Russian positions. pic.twitter.com/Zwz7LxCoKG

— NOELREPORTS (@NOELreports) September 5, 2024

A Russian headache

Dmitri, a popular Estonian blogger operating the War Translated channel on X, shared an entry from a Russian soldier, in which he describes the new drones, which he encountered in the Kherson region.

The soldier wrote: “The khokhols [Russian slur for Ukrainians] also got a new drone that drops a thermite charge. This has given us a headache.”

Russian opinion of the drones with thermite charge used against them in Kherson region. At the moment, they have nothing to counter it. The only clue is to build dugouts from concrete and firebrick. pic.twitter.com/jEDpYacnj9

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) September 6, 2024

Thermite is a mixture of aluminum and iron oxide (or simply rust) powder. Once ignited, it burns at extremely hot temperatures, between 2,000 and 2,500 degrees Celsius.

This is hot enough to burn through steel plates. If a drone manages to drop thermite on an incapacitated or abandoned armored vehicle, it can result in generating enough heat to ignite fuel and ammunition inside.

Since the mixture contains its own oxidant, it is extremely hard to put out using conventional means.

The soldier added that the Russians have struggled to find a way to protect themselves from the new weapon.

At first, they attempted to spread nets over their dugouts to prevent the drone from flying into them, but this did not effectively protect them from burns. Ultimately, they resorted to digging in deeper and using sand, firebrick or concrete for protection.

He also wrote that “There should always be water and sand to put out the fire” on hand, although as one X user commented under Dmitri's post, this is not an effective way to put out flaming thermite.

The soldier also complained that the soldiers must improvise and attempt to protect themselves at their own expense.

Legality and effectiveness

Dismissing concerns that the new weapon may not be ethical, the Kyiv Post pointed out that the drones are not used directly against individuals.

It added that thermite “is unlikely to cause much direct injury unless an individual is unfortunate enough to be struck directly by a burning fragment” but it is capable of igniting any flammable material, for example, trees and dry crops.

Used in this way, the new weapon is best applied toward depriving the enemy of useful cover or smoking them out to be taken out by artillery and additionally impacting their morale.

See the original here.

16. Great Power Competition Report - United States & China Economic, Military, and Diplomatic Developments

A fascinating and detailed 8000+ word report. Graphics and charts at the link. Abstract and Introduction below.

https://www.strategycentral.io/post/great-power-competition-report-united-states-china

Excerpts:

The U.S. and China have reached a proximate equilibrium of national power. However, the U.S. still holds an edge and a higher probability of continued growth and economic health. China faces a decline in manufacturing and a massive demographic shift as many of its skilled workers age out of the workforce, with a much smaller “one China policy” generation coming behind it that will be unable to fill the void of such a rapid decline in the general population. However, the U.S. must continue to press its technological, academic, corporate, and relationship advantage. Congress must act to shape the best conditions for all dimensions of U.S. power to be brought to bear on competition with China, Russia, and Iran. The next U.S. administration must also act diplomatically to align partners and allies against the growing Axis threat. Tariffs and trade wars will be of limited value. Outproducing and out-innovating in tech and entrepreneurial ability has always been the best approach in competition, not simply containing a rival.

Lastly, a heartfelt (perhaps corny) call for a united American front. Reinvigorating patriotism, respect for democratic values, and a sense of shared American identity must be pursued by the American political class and the people. It must be taught in our schools and practiced by family, neighbors, and friends. The naked pursuit of power using all manner of outright lies and manufactured crises will raise money and put a candidate in office. However, the tactic has so cheapened national politics as to warrant the contempt and enmity of the people and only undermined the patriotism necessary to support institutions of democracy that we have sought to defend. Lies and contempt will not sustain this democracy for long. Defending our democratic values is a core national security interest that must be respected. China may not have to out-compete America; we may perform political suicide that hands them the world.

17 minutes ago
30 min read

Great Power Competition Report - United States & China

Economic, Military, and Diplomatic Developments

https://www.strategycentral.io/post/great-power-competition-report-united-states-china

The Full Competition Report For Practitioners

By Monte Erfourth – Aug 2024

ABSTRACT

In 2024, the geopolitical chessboard saw heightened competition between the United States and China, with Beijing's strategic maneuvers aiming to reshape the global order and challenge U.S. dominance. Despite their profound ideological rifts, both nations engaged in cautious dialogue, striving to manage their rivalry responsibly. Despite the outreach, the first half of the year was marked by escalating economic, military, and diplomatic tensions, with neither side willing to seek cooperation over competition.

China's military capabilities have been steadily improving, narrowing the gap with the U.S. and outpacing regional neighbors. However, its economic slowdown and demographic challenges present significant hurdles. Meanwhile, China's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and Europe faced setbacks, diminishing its leverage.

In response, the U.S. has strengthened its global diplomatic efforts, strengthening alliances and addressing geopolitical tensions. While symbolically significant, the formation of an "Axis of Authoritarians" between China, Russia, and Iran lacks the cohesion to effectively challenge the current international order. However, the BRICS coalition represents a notable shift in the global landscape, with China playing a pivotal role.

The U.S. retains an edge in national power but must continue to leverage its technological, academic, and corporate strengths. A united American front, reinvigorated patriotism, and respect for democratic values are essential to countering China's challenge. The next U.S. administration must align partners and allies against the growing authoritarian threat, focusing on innovation and strategic cooperation rather than mere containment. The stakes are high, and the path forward requires a blend of strategic foresight and national unity.

INTRODUCTION

The Strategy Central Great Power Competition report details the United States and China competition in the first half of 2024. It offers an analysis to help strategists grasp the current state of rivalry between these two superpowers in terms of power, economics, military power, and diplomacy. The conclusion is more than a summary; it will contain additional points and recommendations. The report will first examine the power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific as a way to explore the region of greatest tension between the U.S. and China. This does not mean that the rest of the world is not at play. It very much is. The world will also be discussed, just in less detail.

The report is broken into distinct sections:

· Power Politics. Explores the interplay of nations employing their powers to create advantage through influence and leverage to protect and advance their interests.

· Economic. Explores the ongoing trade disputes, technological restrictions, and collaborative efforts.

· Military. Delves into strategic deterrence, strategic approach, and the complex dynamics of military engagement in several regions.

· Diplomacy. Discusses high-level diplomatic initiatives, conflict resolution efforts, and the impact of strategic alliances.

· Conclusion. Synthesizes insights and offers strategic recommendations, aiming to inform strategy development or, at the very least, serve as an informative overview of the evolving U.S.-China relations.

The reader can skip to any one section to learn about a particular area of concern. Going directly to the conclusion may be best if the reader is looking for a synthesis of the primary facets of great power politics and where the competition currently stands.

17. Analysis: How secure and reliable are US elections? You’d be surprised

It is responsible to ensure we have a secure and reliable election system.

It is the height of irresponsibility to try to set the conditions for challenge by undermining the election system by shaking the people's confidence in the election system. And it is a criminal act to use political violence to challenge an election.

Analysis: How secure and reliable are US elections? You’d be surprised | CNN Politics

CNN · by Zachary B. Wolf · September 7, 2024

A person casts their ballot in the Democratic presidential primary during early voting at the Bluffton Recreation Center on January 30, 2024, in Bluffton, South Carolina.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

CNN —

With election season underway, you’re bound to hear from former President Donald Trump that an army of undocumented immigrants is trying to vote in the presidential election. You may hear from Democrats that GOP efforts to pass new voting laws is a form of voter suppression.

Despite that rhetoric, you might be surprised to hear the argument that voting in the US — the act of casting a ballot and the guarantee it will be counted — is better now than at any time in the country’s history.

That’s what you’ll get from David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan and nonprofit group that gets most of its funding from charitable foundations and aims to improve and build confidence in US elections.

I had a long phone conversation with Becker, a former senior attorney in the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division who has been working for decades to improve US elections. Our conversation, edited for length, is below:

Actually, voting in the US is better than ever

WOLF: Your first point in talking about US elections is that the system we have is really good and has never been better. Explain that.

BECKER: The fact is, our elections right now — as voters are thinking about whether it’s worthwhile to cast a ballot in this election — our elections right now are as secure, transparent and verifiable as they’ve ever been.

From the security perspective, we have more paper ballots than ever before. Paper ballots are a best practice. They’re auditable, they’re recountable, they’re verifiable by voters, and well over 95% of all voters will be voting on paper in 2024.

We have more audits of those ballots, which confirm the machines work. Those audits are hand counts of ballots to make sure that those counts match what the machine said.

CNN illustration/Getty Images

We have more preelection litigation that confirms the rules of the election than ever before. We have better voter lists than ever before, thanks to states having better technology and better data and sharing that data with each other. And then finally, we have more post-election litigation that confirms the results.

We saw that in 2020 where, despite dozens of cases and with additional cases that have been brought in the years afterwards regarding defamation and otherwise, there’s still not been a shred of evidence brought to any court in the country that would indicate that there was a problem with the 2020 election.

So we know the results are accurate.

The other half of that is from the voters’ perspective, it’s easier to participate than ever before. More voters have access to early voting than ever before: 97% of all voters will have the ability to cast an early ballot — everyone except those living in the states of Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire.

Voters in 36 states plus DC will have the ability to vote by mail without any excuse if they want to.

Voters will find, if they want to participate, regardless of who they’re voting for, that it’s going to be an easy process, that they’re going to find it rewarding, that the results will be verifiable. In fact, despite some rhetoric about long lines, evidence suggests almost every voter waits less than 30 minutes in line.

If voters out there are wondering whether to participate, what I’d say is try it, and you’ll see it’s a very easy, convenient, rewarding process.

So why is faith in US elections down?

WOLF: At the same time, polling has shown — and not just in the Trump era, but going back to 2000 — that confidence has fallen, accelerated by Trump, but people have less confidence. If the system is getting better, but people have less faith in it, how can that dynamic be changed?

BECKER: First of all, the data I’ve seen — and I’ve been looking at this since at least 1998 — suggests that there actually has been a radical transformation in voter confidence during the Trump era; that if you looked prior to Trump, what we often saw was that overall voter confidence would remain fairly high, but oftentimes the losing sides’ voters would have less confidence than the winning side.

So in 2004, Republicans were more confident than Democrats. In 2008, it was reversed, but overall it was about the same.

What we’ve seen in the intervening years since Trump has come on the scene is that the constant lies about our election system have had an effect, but only with his hardcore supporters. So a significant percentage of the Republican Party, likely a majority of the Republican Party currently, has serious doubts about the outcomes of elections.

The problem with addressing that, and it’s important to try to address that, is you can’t address it by succumbing to the lies. You have to address the reality of election security and work from there, rather than the fantasy that has been created by losing candidates.

And so we’ve seen places, states actually harm their election integrity by succumbing to lies, doing things like leaving the Electronic Registration Information Center, or ERIC, which helps them keep their voter lists up to date.

Several states led by Republicans left that consortium in the last couple of years, and their voter lists are going to be less accurate, which means they’re going to have more problems at the polling place during election season.

Are voters needlessly being culled from voter rolls?

WOLF: We have reported at CNN on efforts to purge or clean voter rolls. There’s been a fair amount of concern raised that people who are legitimately registered will be purged. Are you worried about that?

BECKER: What we call voter list maintenance is a normal aspect of election administration.

Most of the states are required to conduct regular list maintenance under federal law. All states do list maintenance in some ways, and that’s because we as a society are highly mobile. About a third of all American voters will move in a given four-year period of time.

If someone moves out of the state, it’s proper that that voter registration be flagged and ultimately removed because they’re no longer an eligible voter in that state. That’s a normal process that happens in every single state, blue and red.

In general, states do their best to get that right.

I think one of the troubling trends I’m seeing is that hyper-partisans in some states are announcing their normal voter list maintenance … very close to an election, as if it’s something unusual, as if it’s some vast anti-fraud effort to try to take credit for that on a partisan basis and perhaps influence the upcoming election.

A good example of this is in Texas recently … they had undergone three years of list maintenance, removed about a million voters. That’s a very normal number for Texas. There are no red flags that I’ve seen, but that took place over a three-year period, and they just recently announced it as if it was a recent development — and it gives voters the false impression that it’s designed to influence the upcoming election, rather than it was just part of their normal activity.

Is an army of poll watchers coming to disrupt voting?

WOLF: Something else we expect is that Republicans, in particular, are organizing poll watchers in a way that we haven’t seen recently. What are poll watchers, and how do we expect them to be deployed differently this year by the parties?

BECKER: First of all, poll watchers are a normal, constructive aspect of our election system. In every jurisdiction, poll watchers from both parties, from the candidates, from the campaigns, are allowed to watch various parts of the process. Could be voting, could be vote-counting, but they also have to adhere to rules so they don’t interfere with that process.

But when poll watchers might, in this divisive environment, think that they have somehow been deputized as vigilantes in polling places or vote-counting centers, we could have problems.

With regard to this upcoming election, I would say it’s actually not a new thing, that we’ve heard the Republican Party say that they’re going to recruit an army of poll watchers. They have literally said this in almost every presidential election since I’ve been doing this work, and it’s never materialized.

It could be that claims of recruiting an army of poll watchers is an attempt to intimidate some voters. And yet it’s hard to organize watchers at the national level and deploy them all over the country.

I’m skeptical that they will actually be successful in doing so, and even if they are, I am confident that election officials and law enforcement will enforce the laws of the state to make sure that they perform their function, which is to be eyes and ears … but definitely not to interfere with voters.

Americans already prove citizenship in order to vote

WOLF: There are efforts in some states and at the national level to change the way in which people would prove their citizenship in order to register to vote. Why not just do that?

BECKER: We have to understand all of the protections in place to make sure that noncitizens don’t vote in this country.

First, it’s against the law. It has been against the law for decades.

Second, and most people aren’t aware of this, under federal law, every single voter who registers to vote has to provide ID when they register … a driver’s license number or a motor vehicles number. Think about what every person has to provide when they go there for the first time. They have to show proof of legal presence and proof of residence. For most people, that is a US birth certificate or US passport. The state has that information.

A voter walks into Pulaski Heights United Methodist Church on Super Tuesday to cast their vote on March 5 in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Will Newton/Getty Images

Lastly, think about the deterrence effect for noncitizens, whether they’re documented or undocumented, against illegal voting. If they’re undocumented, they might have come here under great risk and great stress for whatever reasons they thought were important. … If they registered to vote or cast a ballot, they would be risking deportation for the right to cast one additional ballot in an election in which 160 million ballots are going to be cast. It would be painting a big bull’s-eye on themselves.

We know that this system that we have in place is effective. States have routinely done checks for noncitizens in just the last couple of years. They found literally zero noncitizens to cast a vote. Even Texas had found only 0.03% possible noncitizens. And based on previous activity in the last few years, it’s likely that every single one of those had been recently naturalized.

So why would we enact a law that’s effectively a “show me your papers” act that basically says to every citizen in the United States, we know you’ve already shown your papers to the DMV. We know you’ve already shown your papers to state agencies, but we’re going to require you to go back out and get your papers again, keep showing them to us.

Another question that I think is legitimately raised about some of the recent claims is the timing. The recent bill that was brought in the House was introduced in the summer of this year, just months before a major presidential election, when, even if it was a good idea, would have been impossible to implement in time for the presidential election.

If this was a serious problem for which there was evidence … why didn’t those who claim that noncitizen voting is a problem bring this up in 2020 or 2021, or even better in 2017, when they had a president in power who is apparently very sympathetic to their views? And the reason is because this is about politics, not policy. … It’s an attempt to set the stage for claims after the election that the election was stolen if their preferred candidate loses.

The argument against making every state vote in the same way

WOLF: This year, it’s Republicans pushing for a national voting law. A couple of years ago, Democrats had a proposal to more normalize the process across the country. I’ve also heard it argued by people like Sen. Mitch McConnell that a very diverse set of voting laws administered at the state level is a feature of the system because it makes it impossible to hack. Do we need to have a better or a more streamlined system? Or do you agree with McConnell that it is not such a bad thing to have 50 different voting systems?

BECKER: Decentralization is a security feature of our system. It is, for all intents and purposes, impossible to steal a national election because we don’t have a national election. We have 10,000 local elections going on at the same time, run by different people of different parties, with redundancies and transparency on different machines that are not connected to the internet.

It is impossible to rig a national election, largely due to the decentralization. It is truly a feature.

It is a feature in another way as well. … We’ve seen great innovations come about, not because Washington decided it was a good idea, but because states wanted to try something new. Online voter registration was started by Arizona in 2002. Widespread mail voting was largely started by Republicans in a lot of the Western states. A lot of really good innovations come out of the states, and some of those innovations ultimately become federal policy later on down the road.

Motor voter — the opportunity, when a citizen is engaged with motor vehicles agencies, to also offer them the opportunity to register to vote.

Statewide voter databases — where instead of having a separate file cabinet in each county or city, each state had a voter registration database, ideally with one record for each voter in the state that followed them as they move.

In some ways, we’ve already achieved standardization — just by best practice, as I mentioned, 47 states have early voting. Only three states are outliers on that. We have 40-plus states that have online voter registration, and we have a few states that are outliers on that. We’re getting there naturally without federal government legislation.

A view shows the Kremlin in downtown Moscow on March 27.

Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images

If you ask the election officials out there, the people who actually run elections … almost everyone agrees, for instance, that there should be widespread early voting and no-excuse mail voting. It’s wonderful for voter convenience, but it’s also really important for election security.

Places that seek to concentrate all of their voting activity within a 12- to 14-hour period on a single Tuesday are incredibly vulnerable … to events like traffic or weather or power outages. But if you offer widespread, early in-person and mail voting, if any of those occur during that early period, and even if there’s some kind of cyber event or cyberattack, election officials can be resilient against that, and voters can still come back another day.

Election workers feel like they’re under siege

WOLF: We’ve done stories on those professionals and more importantly, maybe, the volunteers who make elections happen and that these people are being targeted for abuse. How big is that problem?

BECKER: It’s a very big problem. It’s something I’ve seen continue now for well over four years.

I work extensively with election officials — both parties, all over the country — and they are exhausted. They are isolated. They are constantly under threat, not just to themselves, but also their families. They have difficulty going out in public sometimes in some of their counties. They will get accosted while they’re shopping for groceries or even while they’re at their places of worship.

And this is happening at least as much in deeply red counties as anywhere else. It is often the Republican election officials who are getting it the worst in counties that have voted heavily Republican in the past.

It’s something that I find deeply offensive. The election officials of our country, these public servants — who are largely anonymous, who don’t get rich, who don’t get famous — somehow managed the highest turnout in American history with inadequate resources in the middle of a global pandemic, and their work withstood more scrutiny than any election in world history. And instead of throwing them a parade like we should have, they have been pounded and harassed constantly.

In 2021, my nonprofit at the Center for Election Innovation & Research started the Election Official Legal Defense Network in response to this, chaired by former (George W.) Bush and (Mitt) Romney counsel Ben Ginsberg and former (Barack) Obama counsel Bob Bauer.

We have recruited a network of attorneys that we pair with election officials who need legal assistance when they have a problem — and the problems most often look like they’re getting harassed by their own county boards or their own county council or their own county law enforcement, and they need some kind of representation and advice, someone who will actually represent their best interests.

We find them a lawyer and pair them, and those lawyers work for them pro bono to help them through that. I’m very proud that my nonprofit can offer that service. But I’m also saddened by the fact that we live in a country where a nonprofit needs to provide basic legal services to these somewhat anonymous public servants because of the harassment they’re experiencing. I can’t wait for the day when we can sunset this effort and no longer need this kind of assistance to election officials.

I’ll also add that as we sit here today, almost exactly three years since we founded EOLDN, the requests for legal services have been steady and are currently increasing after four years.

WOLF: Related to the last election?

BECKER: The harassment might relate to the last election, might be fueled by false claims about the last election, but the harassment is happening now. It affects them now as they’re preparing for the next major election.

Is the US system still stronger than a sore loser contesting the outcome?

WOLF: We can assume that Trump is going to say there’s fraud in the election, because he did it when he won in 2016 and he did it when he lost in 2020. The electoral count system was changed after the last presidential election. Is there any concern about contesting an election, or is the system just simply strong enough to withstand challenges?

BECKER: So we have to define what we’re worried about here. If we’re worried about whether the system is strong enough to prevent a losing candidate from somehow seizing power against the will of the voters, I am 100% confident that our system is strong enough.

I am 100% confident that the winner of the election, the actual winner, will have their hand on the Bible on January 20.

CNN

However, I’m very concerned that in the period of time between November 5 and January 20, a losing candidate and his supporters might very well incite anger and division and violence in a desperate and pathetic attempt to seize power. It’s not going to work. It’s a bad strategy, but we’ve already seen with Donald Trump that he has no qualms about making false claims about elections he’s lost.

It is a near-certainty that regardless of what happens in the 2024 election, he will claim victory on election night. It is a virtual certainty that if he loses the election, or if he perceives he’s losing the election, he will continue to spread lies that we’ve already heard about noncitizens voting or voting machines being rigged — and probably a lot of stuff that’s new and irrational, like we heard in 2020 about Italian satellites and German servers and bamboo ballots and dead Venezuelan dictators.

That will not succeed in court. As before, they will have no evidence, because our system is secure, it’s transparent.

But they will spread lies on social media, and there are activists who have been recruited over the course of the past four years in hundreds of counties all over the country, many of them deeply red counties, who are ready to interfere with the process, to protest at vote-counting centers, to harass and photograph and dox election workers, to threaten election workers, to interfere with facilities and potentially with ballots, to potentially get violent.

Even though these efforts will fail, it could create a lot of volatility and danger for these public servants who are performing an essential duty in our democracy. And I do worry about that quite a bit.

It will be incumbent upon members of the losing party’s political leadership to speak very clearly about this.

While we know what Donald Trump, as the candidate himself, will do, because he’s shown it time and time again, and while I don’t expect, if Trump wins, that Vice President (Kamala) Harris will do the same — I think it is likely that, given there are Republican election officials in some states like Georgia trying to … make it easier to challenge the ministerial certification of results. They’re literally handing weapons to rogue members of the Democratic Party who may seek to delay or stop certification, and how that could fuel anger amongst opponents of Donald Trump.

This doesn’t benefit anybody, and so it’s really important that while the primary threat comes from Donald Trump and from his supporters like Elon Musk, who are spreading disinformation constantly and don’t seem to care what the truth is about our elections, there is a possibility Donald Trump could legitimately win. And if he legitimately wins, the antidemocratic forces on the right have opened the door for at least some activity by antidemocratic forces on the left.

On billionaires and elections

WOLF: You talked about Elon Musk getting involved by spreading misinformation. One other tech billionaire is getting out of the election business. Your group distributed money from Mark Zuckerberg for election integrity in 2020. He recently said that he’s not giving any money this year. What are your thoughts on his decision?

BECKER: First of all, going back to 2020, I don’t know Mark Zuckerberg personally. I’ve never spoken to him. But he and his staff waited through 2020 for government to do what it should have done, for government to come in and say, “We have a global pandemic and a presidential election happening the same year, and election officials are facing an unprecedented situation for which they need additional resources.”

Congress and state legislatures were begged for more resources by election officials and they failed. They did not provide close to adequate resources. And by the end of August of 2020, Zuckerberg’s people came to me and asked me what could they do.

I suggested, well, voters are having a hard time understanding how to navigate the pandemic. Let’s give money to the states that want it to help them educate and inform voters how they can navigate it, as long as it’s done on a bipartisan basis.

I can only speak to the funding they gave my organization. That’s what happened. I contacted literally every single election official in those states, almost all of whom I knew personally. And we offered grants.

The conditions were they be used for voter education relating to the pandemic, and that all of the efforts be nonpartisan. Twenty-three states accepted grants. Some of them were deeply red states won by Trump, some of them were deeply blue states won by (Joe) Biden, and every single state got exactly the amount of money they requested.

We used no discretion. We put out a transparent report on that in March of 2021, and I’m very proud of our work doing that.

What I heard from the people with Zuckerberg’s team that I was working with, and what I personally believe, was this was never an ongoing effort to have philanthropy step up and replace the work that government should do. That was never Plan A.

Government should be funding elections. Government should be providing adequate resources, and it’s still failing to do that. But this is specifically with regard to the pandemic, and so from my perspective, I always knew this is a one-time effort.

I will also say that it’s unfortunate to see very partisan attacks on a philanthropist — who has sought to fill in the gaps that government didn’t fill during a crisis — get attacked as he was, while at the same time, there are extremists on the right-wing side who are attempting to do something similar on a smaller scale, with the tools that supposedly will result in more voters being purged and things along those lines.

CNN · by Zachary B. Wolf · September 7, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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