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Quotes of the Day
"The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion. That intellectuality is more vigorous that has attained its strength gradually. It is the man who carefully advances step by step, with his mind becoming wider and wider — and progressively better able to grasp any theme or situation — persevering in what he knows to be practical, and concentrating his thought upon it, who is bound to succeed in the greatest degree."
– Alexander Graham Bell
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience."
– C. S. Lewis
"If we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity."
– John F. Kennedy
1. S. Korea blares propaganda broadcasts for 3rd day against N.K. balloons
2. Trump flaunts personal ties with Kim, signals apparent desire for N.K. diplomacy
3. Blinken decries Russia's cooperation with N.K., Iran, China
4. 24-trillion-won contract to build nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic should be steppingstone for normalization of nuclear power plant industry and SMR
5. Timely initiative for peace in Asia launched in Mongolia
6. The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence
7. US lawmaker says Republicans are united, have 'high expectations' for Trump's victory
8. North Korea says giant deserted ‘tourist city’ to finally open in May 2025
9. UNICEF delivered 4 million vaccines for North Korean children and pregnant women
10. Washington-Seoul alliance is a ‘nuclear alliance,’ US official says
11. N. Korea paves roads at military parade training ground
12. Hyesan trade activities suspended ahead of Kim Jong Un's Samjiyon inspection
13. Exclusive | South Korea opposition aims to stop military’s Taiwan entanglementSecret Service's Lack Of Red Dot Pistol Optics Puzzles SWAT Officers
14. Editorial: Moon Jae-in's Nuclear Phase-Out policy turns out to be national self-harm
15. Why is ‘Unification of the Korean Peninsula’ being discussed in Mongolia?
1. S. Korea blares propaganda broadcasts for 3rd day against N.K. balloons
An important step in countering the indoctrination of the frontline forces.
See George Hutchinson's work here: "Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA" https://www.hrnk.org/publications/hrnk-publications-view.php?id=59
But much more need to be done to support public diplomacy toward tall the Korean people in the north.
S. Korea blares propaganda broadcasts for 3rd day against N.K. balloons | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Sang-soo · July 20, 2024
SEOUL, July 20 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military on Saturday continued to send propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea in response to the North's repeated launch of trash-carrying balloons across the border, sources said.
The anti-Pyongyang broadcasts started from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., the sources said.
The South Korean military had warned it could increase the number of loudspeakers and switch to a full-scale broadcast if the North stages further provocations, including sending trash balloons across the border.
The first round of broadcasts reportedly involved speakers installed near the western section of the heavily fortified border and continued for approximately 10 hours. The broadcasts were also blared on Friday.
This file photo shows loudspeakers being taken down at a western front-line unit in June 2004. (Yonhap)
On June 9, South Korea resumed blaring such broadcasts for the first time in six years in response to the North's balloon campaigns.
Since late May, North Korea has sent more than 2,000 trash-carrying balloons into the South over eight occasions in retaliation for North Korean defectors' sending of anti-Pyongyang leaflets toward the North.
The JCS said it has detected around 200 trash-carrying balloons sent by the North since Thursday, with some 40 balloons landing in the northern area of Gyeonggi Province that surrounds Seoul.
South Korea turned on loudspeaker broadcasts last month after it fully suspended the 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in response to the North's massive sending of trash-carrying balloons.
The accord, signed under the former liberal Moon Jae-in administration, bans live-fire artillery drills near the border and other acts deemed hostile against each other.
North Korea has bristled against the loudspeaker campaigns, as well as anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent by South Korean activists, on fears that an influx of outside information could pose a threat to the Kim Jong-un regime.
Following the June 9 broadcast, North Korea warned of "new responses" against such psychological warfare, calling it a "prelude to a very dangerous situation."
Earlier this week, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of the North's leader, threatened that South Korea will face "gruesome and dear" consequences if it lets North Korean defectors continue to send leaflets critical of North Korea.
sam@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Sang-soo · July 20, 2024
2. Trump flaunts personal ties with Kim, signals apparent desire for N.K. diplomacy
These two excerpts are a non-sequitur. If we are teetering on the brink of WWIII then we need our alliances and we need to take advantage of our alliances (which we do) as much as our allies need to take advantage of their alliance with us. We cannot sustain US national security without our alliances.
I also wonder if a Trump administration would capitulate to Kim and shift to arms control negotiations (which would cede a political warfare success to the regime) versus seeking denuclearization. (Of course I would recommend it embrace a human rights upfront approach, a public diplomacy/information campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea as the only way to achieve denuclearization and an end to the threats against the South, the region, the US, and the international community, and an end to the the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity against the Korean people in the north)
Excerpts:
"The war is now raging in Europe and the Middle East. A growing specter of conflict hangs over Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines and all of Asia, and our planet is teetering on the edge of World War III," he said.
...
"We have long been taken advantage of by other countries. And think of it. Oftentimes, these other countries are considered so-called allies," he said.
"They've taken advantage of us for years. We lose jobs, we lose revenue, and they gain everything and wipe out our businesses. ... I stopped it for years. ... We are really ready to make changes like nobody has seen before."
Trump flaunts personal ties with Kim, signals apparent desire for N.K. diplomacy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 19, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, July 19 (Yonhap) -- Former U.S. President Donald Trump has boasted about his personal ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, anticipating that the recalcitrant leader might like to see him return to office and "misses" him.
Trump made the remarks in an apparent sign of his desire to resume dialogue with Pyongyang, as he delivered a speech to accept the official GOP nomination for the Nov. 5 presidential election during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Thursday, the fourth and last day of the event.
"I got along with him, and we stopped the missile launches from North Korea. Now, North Korea is acting up again, but when we get back, I get along with him," he said.
"He'd like to see me back too. I think he misses me," he added, arousing laughter from the audience.
Noting the press' criticism of his ties with Kim, Trump said, "It's nice to get along with somebody who has a lot of nuclear weapons."
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gives his acceptance speech during the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024, in this photo released by Reuters. (Yonhap)
His remarks came amid a flurry of speculation over whether he would resume direct diplomacy with Kim, if reelected.
During his first term, his leader-to-leader engagement approach led to three high-profile meetings with Kim, including their first summit in Singapore in 2018, though denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang have been stalled since their no-deal summit in Hanoi in February 2019.
Castigating security and foreign policies of his rival, President Joe Biden, Trump took note of the deteriorating security conditions on the Korean Peninsula.
"The war is now raging in Europe and the Middle East. A growing specter of conflict hangs over Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines and all of Asia, and our planet is teetering on the edge of World War III," he said.
Highlighting his "America first" policy credo, Trump suggested he could bring about a shift in Washington's approach to alliances if reelected.
"We have long been taken advantage of by other countries. And think of it. Oftentimes, these other countries are considered so-called allies," he said.
"They've taken advantage of us for years. We lose jobs, we lose revenue, and they gain everything and wipe out our businesses. ... I stopped it for years. ... We are really ready to make changes like nobody has seen before."
As expected, he redoubled his attack on Biden, calling his rival's leadership "failed" and "incompetent."
"Under the current administration, we are indeed a nation in decline. We have an inflation crisis," he said.
"We also have an illegal immigration crisis, and it's taking place right now as we sit here in this beautiful arena, some massive invasion at our southern border that has spread misery, crime, poverty, disease and destruction to communities all across our land."
Portraying his speech as a message of "confidence," "strength" and "hope," Trump made an emphatic call for national unity. He wore a bandage on his ear in a telling reminder of the recent assassination attempt.
Trump's robust tone appeared to reflect his confidence in the trajectory of his campaign amid unceasing calls for Biden to bow out following a poor debate performance last month.
"The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny," Trump said, vowing to launch a new era for "citizens of every race, religion, color and creed."
"We rise together or we fall apart. I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America," he added.
His message of "strength" came as Biden has been self-isolating due to a COVID-19 infection under mounting appeals from within his own party to reconsider the viability of his campaign.
Trump also gave a detailed account of how he was shot in the ear by the deceased, would-be assassin during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday as his supporters cast him as a "resilient" leader who survived the life-threatening incident.
"I am not supposed to be here tonight. I'll tell you I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of the Almighty God," he said.
Despite the attack, Trump said that he is "more determined than ever."
"No matter what obstacle comes our way, we will not break. We will not bend. We will not back down, and I will never stop fighting for you, your family and our magnificent country."
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 19, 2024
3. Blinken decries Russia's cooperation with N.K., Iran, China
Excerpts:
In addition, he underscored deepening cooperation among the U.S. and its European and Indo-Pacific partners in the thick of Russia's war in Ukraine, calling it "remarkable."
"We built convergence across the Atlantic, we built it across the Pacific, and we built it between the Atlantic and Pacific," he said. "So, I would take our teams and countries that we've been working with than anything that Russia has been able to put together."
Blinken warned that China cannot say it wants better relations with Europe "when it is actually helping to fuel the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."
Blinken decries Russia's cooperation with N.K., Iran, China | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 20, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, July 19 (Yonhap) -- Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Washington's concerns Friday over Russia's cooperation with North Korea, Iran and China in the midst of its war in Ukraine, stressing it is "not good for your reputation" to work closely with Moscow.
Blinken made the remarks as concerns have persisted over both regional and global security implications of a growing military alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow, and Beijing's purported support for Russia's defense industrial base.
"Now it's also true that the Russians have found workarounds, and particularly in their relationship with North Korea (and) with Iran," Blinken said in his remarks during a forum hosted by the Aspen Strategy Group.
"And unfortunately with China, they have found ways to keep the defense industrial base moving so that they can continue to prosecute the aggression against Ukraine," he added.
This photo, taken on April 23, 2024, shows U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking during a press meeting at the department in Washington. (Yonhap)
Commenting on Russia's deepening ties with North Korea, Iran and China, the secretary said that the move is something that has been "in the works for a long time," and might have accelerated as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Blinken highlighted a reputation issue associated with backing Russia's war effort, while touting a large international coalition in support of Ukraine's efforts for its defense and territorial integrity.
"It's not particularly good for your reputation to be working closely with Russia ... So, I think China is very uncomfortable in the position it's in," he said.
In addition, he underscored deepening cooperation among the U.S. and its European and Indo-Pacific partners in the thick of Russia's war in Ukraine, calling it "remarkable."
"We built convergence across the Atlantic, we built it across the Pacific, and we built it between the Atlantic and Pacific," he said. "So, I would take our teams and countries that we've been working with than anything that Russia has been able to put together."
Blinken warned that China cannot say it wants better relations with Europe "when it is actually helping to fuel the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 20, 2024
4. 24-trillion-won contract to build nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic should be steppingstone for normalization of nuclear power plant industry and SMR
South Korea is a global pivotal state that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, is a partner in the arsenal of democracy, and that supports the rules based international order.
24-trillion-won contract to build nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic should be steppingstone for normalization of nuclear power plant industry and SMR
donga.com
Posted July. 19, 2024 07:43,
Updated July. 19, 2024 07:43
24-trillion-won contract to build nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic should be steppingstone for normalization of nuclear power plant industry and SMR. July. 19, 2024 07:43. .
The “Team Korea” consortium, led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, was selected as a preferred bidder for a project to build new 24-trillion-won nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic. This is the first time South Korea entered the European market by beating France, a strong leader in the nuclear power plant industry, which will serve as an important opportunity for the country to build its K-nuclear power plant export market. In addition, the new contract, which will provide stable demand by 2036 when the newly built power plants in the Czech Republic begin commercial operation, will serve as the foundation to normalize the nuclear power plant industry, which struggled due to the previous administration’s denuclearization policy, and for South Korea to lead the next-generation small modular reactor (SMR) market.
The two new power plants to be built in the Czech Republic by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, along with Doosan Enerbility and Daewoo E&C, are 100-megawatt APR 1000. This is the first foreign contract to be won by South Korea since the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates in 2009. The new contract is worth more than 20 trillion won of the Barakah plant, and the contract amount will be much larger if South Korea wins the contract for two additional power plants to be ordered by the Czech Republic in the next five years.
The Czech government cited Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power’s capability to build power plants before the deadline within the limited budget as one of the reasons for selecting the bidder. The organization’s experience of completing the Barakah plat before the construction deadline under poor conditions in the desert was appreciated. As the construction of a nuclear power plant is a difficult task, even companies in advanced countries such as France sometimes take longer than ten years to finish the project before the promised deadline. South Korea, which can build a nuclear power plant for less than half the cost of France by reducing the construction period, has price competitiveness. South Korean nuclear facilities are also ranked the highest in the world in terms of safety, including any potential accidents.
The contract is especially meaningful as it was won during a time when the nuclear power plant is garnering renewed appreciation in the world as a stable energy source without carbon emissions as the artificial intelligence technology and electric cars require a large amount of electricity. Italy, which was the first country to denuclearize in the world, officially announced to reintroduce nuclear power plants since its denuclearization announcement in 35 years, and Sweden, which has been reducing nuclear facilities since 1980, announced a plan to build new nuclear power plants. In particular, South Korean companies are bidding to win contracts for nuclear facilities in Poland and Romania.
South Korea is one of the few countries in the world capable of building next-generation SMRs for nuclear power plants, which generate less electricity but significantly improve safety compared to traditional nuclear power plants. With the newly won contract in the Czech Republic, the South Korean government and related companies should make further efforts to develop Korean SMRs to ensure price competitiveness, construction capabilities, and outstanding technological capabilities.
한국어
donga.com
5. Timely initiative for peace in Asia launched in Mongolia
Excerpt:
The closing declaration of the Mongolia Forum made the goal clear as day. Those gathered asserted, “A peaceful and prosperous Northeast Asia is the shared desire of the people of this region and the world, and a unified Korean Peninsula is critical to achieving this goal.” Plans are being drafted to establish a regional mechanism for Northeast Asia to facilitate cross-border initiatives with a focus on civil society and taking Korean unification as the essential question for our age.
Timely initiative for peace in Asia launched in Mongolia
The Korea Times · July 20, 2024
Experts in politics, diplomacy and international security from South Korea, the United States, Japan, the Philippines, Mongolia, China, Russia and elsewhere gathered in Mongolia from July 7 to 9 and debated how the international community can move toward peace in East Asia. Courtesy of Emanuel Pastreich
By Emanuel Pastreich
Amid mounting concerns about global conflict, a notable gathering of individuals committed to peace in Asia gathered for three days in Mongolia for a serious debate about what concrete steps can be taken to create a positive cycle in the midst of growing distrust.
From July 7 to 9, experts in politics, diplomacy and international security from South Korea, the United States, Japan, the Philippines, Mongolia, China, Russia and elsewhere debated how the international community can move toward peace in East Asia, starting with an honest push for the peaceful and free unification of the Korean Peninsula.
Emanuel Pastreich
They started the discussion around a table in a cottage deep in the mountains of Mongolia, continued it while riding horses on the steppe, and concluded the dialog at an international conference in Ulaanbaatar that brought in major political and diplomatic figures, including the former President of Mongolia Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat, together for a meeting of minds.
Recent conflicts over Ukraine, Gaza, North Korea and Taiwan have made it almost impossible for members of the international community to come together for an honest discussion with the Chinese and Russians, but that is precisely what this Mongolia Forum managed to do.
In part, that success can be attributed to the hard work of Jargalsaikhan Enkhsaikhan, former Mongolian ambassador to the United Nations and a leader in the search for peace in East Asia. Ambassador Enksaikhan is known for his stress on mutual respect and robust diplomacy, best represented by the work of Blue Banner, the NGO that he established.
Equally important in making the Mongolia Forum successful was the support of Global Peace Foundation, a global NGO with a strong presence in Mongolia, Korea, Japan and the United States that is committed to creating a new architecture for peace centered around a free and unified Korean Peninsula. The founder of the Global Peace Foundation, Preston Moon, has advocated from early on for the role of Mongolia in establishing a substantial dialog leading toward Korean unification. As Mongolia has been uniquely able to maintain strong ties with North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the U.S., it is uniquely positioned to play such a critical role.
Another unique aspect of the Mongolia Forum was the critical role of youth in the discussion about the future of Korea and East Asia. A group of 30 or so college students from South Korea, Mongolia and China met in a separate conference for a series of discussions. The students joined experts in international relations for a town hall session on July 9, which built invaluable bridges between generations and nations.
In affirmation of the commitment of both experts and youth to making concrete contributions, both planted trees to guard against desertification as part of a greater project to promote regional cooperation.
The closing declaration of the Mongolia Forum made the goal clear as day. Those gathered asserted, “A peaceful and prosperous Northeast Asia is the shared desire of the people of this region and the world, and a unified Korean Peninsula is critical to achieving this goal.” Plans are being drafted to establish a regional mechanism for Northeast Asia to facilitate cross-border initiatives with a focus on civil society and taking Korean unification as the essential question for our age.
The Mongolia Forum was inspiring for all and suggested tremendous potential for peace in East Asia at a time of growing tensions.
Emanuel Pastreich is president of the Asia Society, a researcher at the Council on East Asian Studies, Yale University and a senior fellow at Global Peace Foundation.
The Korea Times · July 20, 2024
6. The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence
Excerpts:
The most stressful potential shock test for U.S. conventional deterrence in the near term is the challenge of two simultaneous or nearly simultaneous large-scale conflicts in Europe and Asia. The mature Cold War standard for U.S. force planning for two major regional conflicts or major regional contingencies lapsed after the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union. The United States and its allies in Europe and Asia must now expect more assertive political and military behavior from Russia and China than hitherto, and the two powers have already increased their cooperation through joint military exercises.
This cooperation does not mean that their partnership will extend to combined military operations in the near future, and cooperation is far short of the military interoperability needed for shared responsibility in battle. In addition, the United States has allied support in Europe and Asia that is more than symbolic and capable of providing technology, training, and forces to support deterrence and defense in theater. Nevertheless, deterrence and defense requirements for this most demanding case will require policymakers with strategic vision, commanders with imagination and daring, and durable linkages among allied partners across the conflict domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. Unfortunately, conventional deterrence and defense failure in this scenario can open the door to nuclear escalation with unforeseeable consequences.
The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence | The National Interest
Successful deterrence will require policymakers with strategic vision, commanders with imagination and daring, and durable linkages among allied partners across the conflict domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.
by Lawrence J. Korb Follow @LarryKorb on TwitterL Stephen Cimbala
nationalinterest.org
July 19, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Eurasia
Successful deterrence will require policymakers with strategic vision, commanders with imagination and daring, and durable linkages among allied partners across the conflict domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.
Current and aspiring nuclear great powers (the United States, Russia, and China), together with other comparatively small nuclear weapons states (either declared or widely acknowledged as such), are investing in expensive and expansive modernization of their nuclear arsenals. This pattern of growing commitment to larger and costlier nuclear weapons deployments is predicated on the assumption that nuclear weapons are a necessary and sufficient deterrent to a major war, including nuclear war. But that assumption is now under widespread challenge.
What we are seeing is a growing willingness of state and non-state actors to engage in large-scale conventional and unconventional warfare, even against the interests of nuclear powers. It turns out that, without the capability to deter or win conventional wars or unconventional attacks against vital interests, a state’s nuclear arsenal is, effectively, a one-dimensional success story sitting atop a glue factory of military insufficiency.
Dissenters of the preceding view might argue that nuclear weapons serve to deter a nuclear attack against the state and its vital interests and nuclear blackmail by one state against another or its allies. This concept is of little consolation to practical heads of state and military planners. A deliberate nuclear strike “out of the blue” by one nuclear power against another, not preceded by a conventional war, is one of the least likely paths to nuclear war. More likely is the expansion of a conventional war into a decision by one side to engage in nuclear first use.
The side that is winning the conventional war is less likely to engage in nuclear first use or first strike than the losing side. Resorting to nuclear first use would probably be a decision to rescue a losing position in a conventional war. Still, against a nuclear-armed opponent, nuclear second use in retaliation could not be ruled out—indeed, it would almost certainly be expected. Thus, a power that decided on a first-use nuclear policy has wittingly opened the door to a process of escalation over which further control requires a two-sided tacit agreement not to climb the ladder any higher.
Russia’s war against Ukraine beginning in February 2022 is an example of conventional deterrence failure that, as the fighting grows in terms of economic costs and societal destruction, invites an eventual expansion to nuclear war. NATO’s considerable support for Ukraine has kept the latter in the fight, together with the tenacity of Ukrainian resistance, the ingenuity of its intelligence services and tactical commanders in force employment, and the inability of Russia to close the deal with its own conventional forces and military assets greatly outnumbering those of Ukraine.
This stalemate has led to Russian frustration that expresses itself in periodic threats of nuclear first use by Russian President Vladimir Putin, other members of the Russian government, and noted Russian academics. Just as NATO failed in conventional deterrence before the outbreak of war in February 2022, Russia has failed to compel extensive Ukrainian resistance, including strikes into Russian territory with drones and long-range missiles supplied by the United States and NATO allies. Sooner or later, the military stalemate in Ukraine will have to give way to negotiations and a peace agreement—however distasteful such a deal might be to hardliners on all sides.
Further evidence of the apparent futility or declining relevance of nuclear deterrence, when it is unsupported by conventional deterrence based on war-winning capability, is provided by ongoing wars in the Middle East. Israel is a nuclear weapons state, yet it was attacked on October 7, 2023, by Hamas with the support of Iran because Israeli conventional deterrence failed (together with strategic intelligence). In addition, Iran aspires to join the club of nuclear weapons states, and neither the United States nor Israel has been able to deter Tehran’s quest for nukes by posing a credible conventional threat.
A nuclear Iran opens the door to a Middle Eastern proliferation nightmare that could include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey as aspiring nuclear weapons states. However, unlike the U.S. attack on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, no coup de main against the regime in Tehran appears feasible. Economic sanctions and cyberwar are about all that remains in the U.S. tool kit for dealing with the ayatollahs and their supporting clique in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Speaking of embarrassing futilities in conventional deterrence—how is it that a group of terrorists holed up in Yemen, who were once limited to small arms and jeeps, have assembled an armory of missiles and drones to all but shut down traffic in the Red Sea, holding hostage much of the supply chain that affects countries in all regions? Great powers used to call people like this “pirates” and dispatched sufficient forces to treat them accordingly—as outlaws, not governments. Yet the Houthis, supported by Iran, continue to plague mariners of many nationalities without fear of retaliation from all but a few countries. The United States and the United Kingdom have attempted to push back and strike against identifiable terrorist weapons caches and command strongholds. Still, frankly, the situation is a global embarrassment for the international community, including the nuclear powers.
Some analysts may object that it is a stretch to discuss nuclear deterrence with respect to the situation in Yemen. However, apart from deterrence, one assumed characteristic of nuclear weapons is that they allow their possessors a certain amount of swaggering and additional reputation that they are not to be messed with. But this reputational overhang from nuclear possession looms less important in dealing with prospective conventional warriors and unconventional attackers than does the ability to disarm your opponent or to displace his regime and, in the case of terrorists, strike them with precision and lethality. America’s nuclear deterrent is not in doubt per se, but the United States and other leading military powers are having a harder time making conventional deterrence stick. In turn, unreliable conventional deterrence invites leaders to substitute military-strategic bluster or, if available, reach for nuclear coercive bandaids.
An example of the latter is North Korea. Pyongyang would almost certainly lose a major conventional war against South Korea, which the United States and other allies support. As a result, North Korea has ramped up its nuclear-strategic capabilities and even tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching U.S. national territory, not to mention numerous missiles for attacks against American allies in the Indo-Pacific. This dangerous nuclear posturing by North Korea could stimulate responsive nuclear weaponization by Japan, South Korea, and other regional actors who feel directly or indirectly threatened.
Obviously, there are sensible counterarguments to the preceding example. One might contend, for example, that North Korea has survived as an outlaw regime, but Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Qaddafi in Libya did not because the Hussein and Qaddafi regimes lacked a nuclear deterrent to conventional aggression and regime change. From this perspective, even a small nuclear force can deter a more powerful conventional attacker by threatening to impose unacceptable costs on the latter.
But this argument misses a critical point. In order to act as a credible deterrent, a nuclear force must be able to survive a first strike from putative attackers. If a small nuclear force can be destroyed preemptively with either conventional or nuclear weapons, it simply invites an attack on itself. Nonsurvivable nuclear forces are instigators of deterrence failure instead of reliable insurance policies against aggression.
The most stressful potential shock test for U.S. conventional deterrence in the near term is the challenge of two simultaneous or nearly simultaneous large-scale conflicts in Europe and Asia. The mature Cold War standard for U.S. force planning for two major regional conflicts or major regional contingencies lapsed after the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union. The United States and its allies in Europe and Asia must now expect more assertive political and military behavior from Russia and China than hitherto, and the two powers have already increased their cooperation through joint military exercises.
This cooperation does not mean that their partnership will extend to combined military operations in the near future, and cooperation is far short of the military interoperability needed for shared responsibility in battle. In addition, the United States has allied support in Europe and Asia that is more than symbolic and capable of providing technology, training, and forces to support deterrence and defense in theater. Nevertheless, deterrence and defense requirements for this most demanding case will require policymakers with strategic vision, commanders with imagination and daring, and durable linkages among allied partners across the conflict domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. Unfortunately, conventional deterrence and defense failure in this scenario can open the door to nuclear escalation with unforeseeable consequences.
Stephen J. Cimbala is a distinguished professor of political science at Penn State Brandywine and the author of numerous books and articles on international security studies, defense policy, nuclear weapons and arms control, intelligence, and other fields. View a listing of Dr. Cimbala’s authored books, book chapters, and journal articles here.
Lawrence J. Korb is a senior fellow at American Progress and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He was previously a senior fellow and director of national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Follow him on X: @LarryKorb.
7. US lawmaker says Republicans are united, have 'high expectations' for Trump's victory
Other than Elbridge Colby and Fred Fleitz I do not know what personnel the Congresswomen is talking about. If there is a next Trump admisntratio n who will be advising on Korea and Asian issues?
Excerpt:
"Across the Republican Party, there is strong support for (maintaining close) South Korea-US relations," she said. "We may be able to know how former President Donald Trump will do when we look at the personnel to be employed."
US lawmaker says Republicans are united, have 'high expectations' for Trump's victory
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · July 18, 2024
By Yonhap
Published : July 18, 2024 - 09:30
This file photo, shows Rep. Michelle Park Steel (R-CA). (Getty images)
A Korean American congresswoman on Wednesday highlighted Republicans' "high expectations" for former President Donald Trump's victory in the November general election as she touched on the atmosphere of an ongoing GOP national convention in Wisconsin.
In a phone interview with Yonhap News Agency, Rep. Michelle Park Steel (R-CA) noted a palpable sense of unity among party members at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump was formally nominated as the GOP flag-bearer for the presidential election on Monday.
"The mood is that with the party being united, everyone is joining forces," she said.
"I have attended the national convention eight times since 1996, and compared with other times, the ambience of this year's event is very earnest and expectations are very high for the presidential election victory," she added.
Steel also said that should Biden stay in the race, the likelihood of Trump winning the Nov. 5 election would be "big."
"With the party standing united, it appears that things are moving all in a good direction," she said. "Some even said former President Trump has already secured a presidential victory after the (shooting) incident."
On Saturday, Trump was shot in the ear by a now-deceased man during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
She also commented on lingering concerns that Trump's return to the White House could affect the South Korea-US alliance.
"Across the Republican Party, there is strong support for (maintaining close) South Korea-US relations," she said. "We may be able to know how former President Donald Trump will do when we look at the personnel to be employed." (Yonhap)
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · July 18, 2024
8. North Korea says giant deserted ‘tourist city’ to finally open in May 2025
Who will travel there?
And whoever does visit this tourist city will be contributing funds directly to the regime to help continue to deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north so that Kim Jong Un can remain in power.
North Korea says giant deserted ‘tourist city’ to finally open in May 2025
Kim Jong Un visits Wonsan-Kalma beach resort for first time in 5 years to promote international tourism revival
https://www.nknews.org/2024/07/north-korea-says-giant-deserted-tourist-city-to-finally-open-in-may-2025/?utm
Colin Zwirko July 18, 2024
Aerial view of the sprawling Wonsan-Kalma beach resort zone taken this week | Image: Rodong Sinmun (July 18, 2024)
North Korea’s long-stalled Wonsan-Kalma beach resort will finally open in May 2025 as part of plans to “boost tourism,” leader Kim Jong Un said during a visit to the east coast site on Tuesday, according to state media.
Work began on the “world-level coastal tourist city” in early 2018, but it missed multiple deadlines for opening in 2019 before the pandemic hit and it appeared to be largely deserted and put on indefinite hold.
The military-built resort features thousands of hotel rooms and hundreds of buildings covering a total area of around 605 acres (245 hectares) across a 3.5-mile (5.5-km) stretch of white-sand beach.
A large map of the zone appeared in the center of the table during the tent meeting | Image: Rodong Sinmun (July 18, 2024)
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Some Russian tourists were given a sneak peak inside the resort zone earlier this year, while NK Pro analysis recently showed beach chairs set up, new road paving and other major construction work by the adjacent airport.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Kim’s first visit to Wonsan-Kalma in over five years on Thursday, where he said construction had “entered the final stage.”
The report said he convened a “consultative meeting” with top officials in an air-conditioned tent resembling a Politburo meeting room on the beach “to discuss the practical matters for making full preparations for the operation of the Wonsan Kalma coastal tourist area” ahead of its opening “by next May.”
He warned that the resort “will depreciate in its value as a tourist area if the level of the service and operation is low,” ordering additional work be done like “building an amusement park and a leisure activity area” and “ensuring the capacity for garbage and sewage treatment and training experts for all services.”
Kim’s new ornate field “consultative meeting” tent on the Wonsan-Kalma beach on July 16 | Image: Rodong Sinmun (July 18, 2024)
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Earlier this week, state media reported that Kim was interested in specifically inviting “friendly foreign friends” to the Samjiyon tourist zone in the north. This raised questions over whether he would maintain a ban on Western tourists and instead only allow those from Russia, China and others politically close to North Korea.
Thursday’s report was not as specific, but the DPRK leader equally signaled plans in Wonsan to begin allowing more foreign tourists into the country after closing the borders in Jan. 2020 and keeping them closed for most of the pandemic until around one year ago.
“Stressing the need to boost tourism in a long-term manner on the basis of the experience gained in the construction of the coastal tourist area,” Kim reportedly “called for taking long-term steps to exploit the resources of sports-based, leisure-oriented, sightseeing coastal tourism as the resources of coastal tourism in a unique manner.”
Wonsan-Kalma is to become a “coastal wonderland to be known to the world as the best tourist resort of the DPRK,” he added.
Zoe Stephens, a tour leader at Koryo Tours, said the size of the Wonsan-Kalma project suggests it must be aimed at both foreign and domestic tourists, noting that domestic tourism is also “quite a big industry” in the DPRK.
She told NK News that foreign tourists “don’t really bring in a lot of money” but that it may still be enough “to keep the resort running.”
While the plans for opening doesn’t necessarily mean international tourism to the country will resume anytime soon, Stephens said it’s “definitely” a step in the right direction.
As one of the most closed-off and strictly policed states in the world, North Korea has not historically allowed foreign tourists to freely explore the country and it is likely that those arriving at the new Wonsan resort will not be allowed to leave the zone without government minders.
It is also unlikely that South Korean tourists — seemingly a major target when the project first kicked off in 2018 — will be allowed to book tours to Wonsan-Kalma given increasingly hostile inter-Korean relations.
Kim mentioned that other locations tipped for renewed tourism include Mount Kumgang, Mount Chilbo, Majon, Kumya, Riwon and Yombunjin.
The North Korean leader previously held a similar tent meeting on Monday on another beach up the coast in Sinpho regarding a new fish farm project.
Joe Smith contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Arius Derr
Updated on July 18 at 9:30 a.m. with additional context and at 5:07 p.m. KST with expert comment
9. UNICEF delivered 4 million vaccines for North Korean children and pregnant women
Regardless of how evil the regime is, the international community still seeks to help the Korean people in the north.
UNICEF delivered 4 million vaccines for North Korean children and pregnant women
UN agency made three deliveries this week for nationwide campaign set to be undertaken by DPRK health ministry in Sept.
https://www.nknews.org/2024/07/unicef-delivered-600000-vaccines-for-north-korean-children-and-pregnant-women/
Anton Sokolin July 19, 2024
North Korean mother holding her baby who wears a beret in her arms, Pyongan Province, Pyongyang, North Korea | Image: Eric Lafforgue (April, 2010)
UNICEF delivered vaccines for over 600,000 North Korean children and pregnant women this week, the organization announced on Thursday, while urging Pyongyang to let U.N. aid workers back into the country.
The agency delivered over “four million doses” of a wide variety of vaccines via chartered flights on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, according to a press release from the U.N. organization.
Breakdown of shipments:
- 680,000 doses of Bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccine
- 309,500 doses of Hepatitis B vaccine
- 1,339,000 doses of Measles-Rubella vaccine
- 291,400 doses of Pentavalent vaccine
- 1,092,000 doses of Tetanus-diphtheria vaccine
- 495,600 doses of Inactivated Polio Vaccine
The DPRK’s health ministry is set to use most of these vaccines in September for a nationwide catch-up campaign, the release states, adding that the vaccine recipients will include “children and pregnant women who have been unable to receive one or more vaccinations since 2021.”
The jabs will also be administered to “babies born this year who have not received a single vaccine dose, leaving them unprotected from potentially serious infectious diseases,” while the rest of the vaccines will be used to restore the regular immunization program.
An Air Koryo Tu-204-100B aircraft likely chartered by UNICEF to deliver vaccines to North Korea on July 18, 2024 | Image: UNICEF
North Korea’s rate of national immunization coverage dropped sharply with the onset of COVID-19 due to strict border restrictions that “led to the exhaustion of vaccine stocks,” UNICEF assessed, adding that the vaccine coverage exceeded 96% before the pandemic.
UNICEF DPRK Acting Representative Roland Kupka reportedly called the return of vaccines a “significant milestone towards safeguarding children’s health and survival” in North Korea.
He also urged DPRK authorities “to facilitate the earliest possible return of UNICEF and all U.N. international staff.”
The humanitarian mission was organized in collaboration with the Gavi Vaccine Alliance and World Health Organization, according to the press statement.
The agency also stated that it helps North Korea’s health ministry in transporting vaccines to provincial and county warehouses.
The arrival of vaccines came amid a visit by Qu Dongyu, who heads another U.N. agency — the Food and Agriculture Organization — to Pyongyang on July 13-16, the first trip by international humanitarian officials to the DPRK since the last aid workers left the country in 2021.
Experts previously welcomed the arrival of the FAO chief, expressing hope that his trip would pave the way for the revival of North Korea’s cooperation with international aid agencies.
While being reluctant to welcome aid staffers, North Korea has already allowed multiple foreigners — primarily from China and Russia — to enter the country, with officials, exchange students and tourists visiting the DPRK.
Edited by Alannah Hill
10. Washington-Seoul alliance is a ‘nuclear alliance,’ US official says
Washington-Seoul alliance is a ‘nuclear alliance,’ US official says
https://www.voanews.com/amp/washington-seoul-alliance-is-a-nuclear-alliance-us-official-says/7701401.html
July 17, 2024 4:21 AM
Vipin Narang, U.S. acting assistant secretary of defense for Space Policy, being interviewed by Eunjung Cho, VOA's Korean Service on July 16, 2024.
WASHINGTON —
A high-ranking U.S. official stressed Tuesday that the U.S.-South Korea alliance is a “nuclear alliance,” reinforcing the South Korean government’s description of the two allies, after the United States and South Korea signed new deterrence guidelines last week.
Vipin Narang, U.S. acting assistant secretary of defense for Space Policy, told VOA’s Korean Service in an exclusive interview that “when we formally extend nuclear deterrence to our allies, it is a nuclear alliance, and South Korea is an example of that.”
Narang explained that it would be similar to what the United States has with the European allies through NATO.
“NATO publicly says, for example, that so long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will be a nuclear alliance. And the relationship with ROK, similarly, is a formal extension of U.S. nuclear,” he said, referring to South Korea with the abbreviated form of its official name, the Republic of Korea. “We commit to defend South Korea with all capabilities.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said earlier on Tuesday in a Cabinet meeting that South Korea’s alliance with the United States has been upgraded to a “nuclear-based alliance,” adding that the U.S nuclear assets will now be “specially assigned to missions on the Korean Peninsula” under the newly agreed guidelines between the two allies.
On Thursday, Yoon met U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington, reaffirming their commitments to the Washington Declaration unveiled in 2023, which outlines the two countries’ commitment to engage in deeper dialogue and information sharing to strengthen nuclear deterrence efforts on the Korean Peninsula.
According to the joint statement released after the two leaders’ latest meeting, Biden reiterated that the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence to South Korea is backed by “the full range of U.S. capabilities, including nuclear.”
In line with such a move, Narang, who co-chairs the Nuclear Consultative Group, a bilateral body set up by the United States and South Korea under the Washington Declaration, met his South Korean counterpart, Cho Chang Lae, in Washington last week and signed “the United States and Republic of Korea Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula.”
The guidelines, according to the Department of Defense, provide principles and procedures to assist policymakers and military officials of both countries “in maintaining an effective nuclear deterrence policy and posture.”
Narang emphasized that the guidelines would help the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) evolve in accordance with the threats faced by the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
“The guidelines document is the not the end, it’s the beginning, and sort of sets up the NCG as an enduring body,” he said. “The NCG is a living body, and the work streams evolve with the threat environment and the capabilities, just as North Korea's capabilities continue to expand and diversify.”
However, he made it clear that only the U.S. president will be able to authorize the use and employment of U.S. nuclear weapons, while underscoring Washington and Seoul will be approaching the extended deterrence “as equal partners.”
“We have extended deterrence relationships. We need conventional support from our allies,” he stressed.
His remarks come amid growing skepticism in South Korea over the U.S. extended deterrence, especially after Russia and North Korea signed a defense pact, which indicated Moscow’s willingness to engage in full-fledged military cooperation with Pyongyang.
An increasing number of South Korean people are calling for South Korea’s own nuclear weapons, arguing that the U.S.-ROK alliance’s existing deterrence strategy would not be enough to protect South Korea from the possible attacks from North Korea, if it joins hands with Russia.
SEE ALSO: Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy
The acting assistant secretary of defense gave a strong warning against South Korea having its own nuclear weapons.
“It would be in violation of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty),” Narang said, adding that South Korea would probably face international sanctions.
He also suggested that Seoul would be “an international pariah” and would become vulnerable to North Korea’s nuclear attacks during the time it is pursuing nuclear weapons.
Experts in Washington remained cautious about what the new guidelines could mean for the extended deterrence for South Korea.
“It shows that the United States is taking seriously South Korea as a partner in all aspects of defense,” said Scott Snyder, president of Korea Economic Institute of America.
Snyder told VOA’s Korean Service on Tuesday that the decision to employ a nuclear weapon should be made in a closely integrated manner between Seoul and Washington.
“If it’s not integrated, the alliance will fail,” he said.
He added that the decision will heavily depend on the U.S. inclination.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, told VOA’s Korean Service on Tuesday that it is difficult to see the U.S.-South Korea alliance as a “nuclear alliance.”
“If South Korea has been given a role in planning the nuclear options, yes, but the U.S. has been implying that that hasn’t occurred,” Bennett said.
“If they are a nuclear alliance, then it ought to describe in what way it’s a nuclear alliance – is South Korea being included in planning how nuclear weapons will be used? That’s what President Yoon asked for. It’s not clear to me.”
11. N. Korea paves roads at military parade training ground
Regime priority: Parades.
Murphy's law: No parade ready unit has ever passed combat. No combat ready unit has ever passed a parade inspection.
N. Korea paves roads at military parade training ground - Daily NK English
The work suggests that North Korea will continue to conduct parade training at the site in the future
By Mun Dong Hui - July 20, 2024
dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · July 20, 2024
Mirim Airport as seen in this July 14 WorldView-2 satellite image. A pavement construction area is identified in black (yellow rectangle on the right). There is also what appears to be construction on a nearby road (yellow rectangle on the left). /Photo=WV2 (ⓒ2024 Maxar, U.S.G. Plus)
North Korea has paved roads near Mirim Airport, which is used as a military parade training ground, following an order from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source inside North Korea told Daily NK on Thursday that “the Military Engineering Bureau has paved the roads at Mirim Airport with pitch in accordance with the Supreme Commander’s [Kim Jong Un’s] directive in late May to ensure safe training for soldiers and civilians.”
The “pitch” mentioned by the source is a solid or semi-solid black or dark brown hydrocarbon compound obtained as a residue from petroleum refining. Pitch is commonly used as a raw material for asphalt and in road paving.
“Earlier, the political department of the April 25 Hotel [exclusive accommodation for parade participants near Mirim Airport] submitted a proposal to the central leadership regarding the condition and management of the training ground. In response, a directive was issued [by Kim] out of concern [over the situation]. The road improvements were made to improve the functionality of the parade ground in accordance with the Supreme Commander’s instructions.”
He added: “The aim is to ensure that the ground won’t be cracked or damaged when various mechanized equipment is mobilized for rehearsals, allowing for safe and thorough preparation of the military parade.”
Essentially, this road paving work is aimed at repairing deteriorated roads to make them smooth and resilient for seamless parade training. The work suggests that North Korea will continue to conduct parade training at the site in the future.
Other roads near Mirim Airport are expected to get a makeover
Meanwhile, North Korea plans to expand the paving work to other roads near Mirim Airport.
“There are plans to do similar paving work on other roads at Mirim Airport,” the source said. “However, since the currently paved area is the most important area for training activities, discussions on the other areas are likely to continue after an evaluation.”
The area already paved in the area is modeled after Kim Il Sung Square, where welcoming crowds gather during parades. Regular streets have not yet been paved, and the source’s report suggests that these roads will be paved in the future.
“Discussions are underway on whether to expand the scope of paving activities to increase the safety and durability of the entire training ground, or to maintain only the currently completed area with approved funds and materials,” the source said. “For now, the Ministry of Defense, along with the general staff and political departments of the April 25 Hotel, is responsible for routine maintenance.”
Daily NK’s analysis of WorldView-2 satellite imagery (30 centimeter resolution) suggests that road paving at the Mirim Airport began around June 16 and was completed around June 27. In the most recent image, taken on July 14, construction appears to have begun on a nearby road leading to the airfield. The images also show a large number of vehicles on the road.
On July 9, Voice of America published a report with satellite imagery showing asphalt being laid on the surface of Mirim Airport roads that were previously made of cement or concrete.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · July 20, 2024
12. Hyesan trade activities suspended ahead of Kim Jong Un's Samjiyon inspection
Are they trying to hide the market activity from KIm? Or is this just an excuse to crack down on market activity because of his visit?
Hyesan trade activities suspended ahead of Kim Jong Un's Samjiyon inspection - Daily NK English
The prices of imported goods in Hyesan's markets and shops have generally risen with the suspension of trade and smuggling at the border
By Lee Chae Eun - July 19, 2024
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Eun · July 19, 2024
Rodong Sinmun ran a report on July 14 detailing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s two-day onsite guidance visit to construction sites in Samjiyon on July 11 and 12. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)
North Korea recently suspended all trade activities in the Hyesan border area in preparation for Kim Jong Un’s on-site inspection of Samjiyon on July 11 and 12.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Daily NK source in Yanggang Province said authorities “suspended not only trade through Hyesan Customs but also all state-led smuggling in the border areas of Yanggang Province between July 10 and 20.” He said import prices had risen across the board as a result.
The suspension of trade was a measure resulting from Kim’s on-site inspection to Samjiyon, but people only learned of it after North Korea’s official media reported it, the source said. Only then, did people let out a knowing gasp of exasperation, he added.
“Every time the Supreme Leader makes an on-site visit, the crackdown and restrictions are intensified and life is made more difficult,” the source said. “This time, people’s lives are getting harder as all cross-border transactions are blocked.”
Prices fluctuate following suspension of trade
Indeed, the prices of imported goods in Hyesan’s markets and shops have generally risen with the suspension of trade and smuggling at the border. On the other hand, export prices are falling.
People who have a lot of goods to sell use the 10-day suspension of imports to gradually raise the prices of imported goods, while smugglers who buy export goods such as medicinal herbs or minerals use the opportunity to buy their goods cheaply, causing export prices to drop.
In particular, people selling medicinal herbs have been selling their goods at lower prices because they will get moldy in the hot, humid summer weather if they do not sell them quickly.
According to the source, a kilogram of medicinal herbs is currently selling for RMB 65, RMB 15 lower than on July 10, when it sold for RMB 80.
“In Hyesan, people’s lives only get a little better when smuggling and distribution go well,” the source said. “But smuggling has stopped for about 10 days, so market-based business and ordinary people’s lives have gotten even worse.”
Under the circumstances, residents in the border areas of Yangang Province reacted quite negatively to Kim’s on-site inspection to Samjiyon, the source said. In particular, people whispered about reports that Kim sharply rebuked local officials during his visit to Samjiyon.
“People say you can’t expect things to turn out right if all you do is issue orders for government construction but tell people to carry them out in the spirit of self-reliance,” he said. “Because everyone knows that nothing will change just because you punish or dismiss some officials, no one really cares that some officials have been reprimanded.”
Rodong Sinmun reported that on July 11 and 12, Kim conducted an on-the-spot inspection of Samjiyon to review progress on various construction projects.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Eun · July 19, 2024
13. Exclusive | South Korea opposition aims to stop military’s Taiwan entanglement
China and north Korea are enjoying this. This is another measure of effectiveness for their political warfare programs with the objective of subverting South Korea as well as the ROK/US alliance.
Could we see a perfect storm affecting the alliance with the election of the Korean opposition and a Trump administration?
Exclusive | South Korea opposition aims to stop military’s Taiwan entanglement
- Lawmaker Kim Joon-hyung says the opposition will introduce a bill to prevent South Korea from partnering with the US over Taiwan
Park Chan-kyong
+ FOLLOWPublished: 3:38pm, 18 Jul 2024
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3270929/south-korea-opposition-aims-stop-militarys-taiwan-entanglement
South China Morning Post · July 18, 2024
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise self-governed Taiwan as independent, but the US and its allies are opposed to any attempt to take the island by force.
“This law bill aims to prevent the South Korean military from being dragged into such an eventuality and make it focus on its original mission to defend the South from the North’s threats,” Kim said.
Members of the Movement for One Korea protest against the “Freedom Edge” exercise between the US, South Korean and Japanese military forces, outside the US embassy in Seoul on June 27. Photo: EPA-EFE
Political Science Professor Yang Moo-jin, head of the University of North Korean Studies, said the opposition parties were likely to seek consensus with ruling conservative members to pass the bill so that President Yoon Suk-yeol would not exercise his veto right.
The bill would have a good chance of being passed by the National Assembly, where the two main opposition parties have 187 seats in the 300-seat parliament, Yang added.
When asked by Kim whether South Korea would intervene militarily in a conflict over Taiwan in parliament on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul flatly said: “No”.
“The US troops stationing in South Korea are supposed to focus on the Korean peninsula issue”, Cho added.
South Korea hosts 28,500 US troops to deter threats from nuclear-armed North Korea.
Yang Uk, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said South Korea is “too preoccupied with coping with the North to project its strength beyond the Korean peninsula”.
“But it would have no alternatives but to fight alongside the United States if China attacks the United States … as the United States would do the same if the North attacks the South”, he told This Week in Asia.
02:05
War of words erupts over North Korea’s multi-warhead missile test claims
War of words erupts over North Korea’s multi-warhead missile test claims
He also said it would not make sense to dispatch American troops stationed in the South to overseas contingencies such as Taiwan, as their heavy weapons were not suitable for rapid overseas deployment.
General Charles Flynn, commander of the US Army Pacific, said on Channel-A TV in April in Seoul that he would welcome South Korea projecting its strength out in the region to help the alliance “because it’s an important message”.
He said it would be “great” if the South, Japan and the US train together in Hawaii or Alaska could overcome some of the challenges, adding that the US can “help bring the trilateral [alliance] together”.
In a separate interview with the Stars and Stripes newspaper in May, Flynn said Chinese military expansion was pushing Asian nations into closer strategic partnerships with the US, similar to Nato in Europe.
But military cooperation between Pacific nations would take time to integrate in a way comparable to Nato, Flynn added.
The US Army Pacific has 107,000 soldiers and civilian workers stationed across 9,000 miles from Alaska, Guam, American Samoa, Saipan, Japan to South Korea.
South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik has also downplayed the possibility of the South Korean military being involved in an emergency over Taiwan, stating that its focus was on the Korean peninsula.
“We believe that protecting the security of our country amounts to protecting the international security, and it is right for us to focus on that”, Shin said on KBS TV in April.
China’s Shandong aircraft carrier has been carrying out training exercises near Taiwan’s southeast coast as a major US-led naval drill takes place in nearby waters in July. Photo: Japan Ministry of Defence
A crisis over Taiwan would increase the likelihood of North Korea committing provocative acts or starting an aggression, he said.
“Upholding the security of the Republic of Korea [South Korea] is upholding global security, and that is where our focus lies”, he said.
Adam Liff, a senior researcher at the Centre for Asia Policy Studies, said Seoul appeared to “remain more reluctant than Tokyo to publicly engage Taiwan on a bilateral – even if unofficial – basis, or to openly express support for Taiwan’s ‘international space’”.
Despite the Biden administration’s concerted efforts to mobilise allies, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has, understandably, not traditionally been a major focus of attention for South Korea which for more than 70 years has had to stare down an existential threat from North Korea, he said.
“Past US efforts to initiate a more robust discussion on the US-ROK [South Korea] alliance’s possible role in the event of a regional contingency have not made much headway”, he wrote on the Brookings website in February.
A common concern among South Koreans was that a conflict over Taiwan might lead North Korea to seize an opportunity presented by a distracted US military to undertake some escalatory action, he said.
“This fear appears particularly pronounced when ROK counterparts contemplate the possibility that the United States may wish to deploy its forward-deployed forces in Korea to support Taiwan,” he added.
South China Morning Post · July 18, 2024
14. Editorial: Moon Jae-in's Nuclear Phase-Out policy turns out to be national self-harm
Yes, this was a strategic mistake.
Editorial: Moon Jae-in's Nuclear Phase-Out policy turns out to be national self-harm
https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/07/19/EFJVVFGMRNCKHB5EA5DDWMAS7I/
By The Chosunilbo
Published 2024.07.19. 08:51
Updated 2024.07.19. 09:04
Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. has successfully secured a contract for the construction of a new nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic, valued at 24 trillion won ($17.3 billion). This is the largest nuclear power export deal in history and marks a significant achievement 15 years after winning the Barakah nuclear power plant project in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2009. /News1
South Korea’s nuclear power industry has once again proven its competitiveness in the global market by securing the largest-ever construction contract for a nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic, valued at 24 trillion won ($17.3 billion).
The Czech Prime Minister stated, “In every aspect, S. Korea’s proposal was better than France’s.” This indicates that S. Korea was able to present a tailored model suitable for the Czech Republic’s needs.
This achievement, which comes 15 years after winning the Barakah nuclear power plant project in the UAE in 2009, demonstrates the outstanding technological prowess and price competitiveness of S. Korea’s nuclear power industry, surpassing even nuclear powerhouses like France. With this strategic position in Europe, South Korea’s chances of winning future nuclear power plant projects in countries such as the Netherlands, Poland, and Romania have significantly increased.
For 40 years, S. Korea’s nuclear power industry has steadily built its expertise, from construction and manufacturing to unique design capabilities. The localization of key components has further enhanced its price competitiveness. Although S. Korea lacks natural resources, it possesses highly valuable intellectual resources. The nuclear power sector is one area where these intellectual resources can shine, suggesting that it is a market where S. Korea can excel.
Despite this robust global competitiveness, South Korea’s nuclear power industry was nearly dismantled by the ‘nuclear phase-out’ policy.
Former President Moon Jae-in’s nuclear phase-out policy was incomprehensible from start to finish. He once said he “cried a lot” after watching a science fiction movie about a nuclear accident, which many believe was the beginning of his nuclear phase-out policy. Within a month of taking office, he announced this policy, filling it with inaccuracies and logical fallacies.
Key figures were wrong, and the policy was developed by non-experts unrelated to nuclear power. Eventually, they even manipulated data to shut down perfectly operational nuclear plants. While the true responsible individual, former President Moon, remains at ease, the officials involved at the time are under investigation.
An industry that countless talented individuals have built over decades with their sweat and effort was on the verge of collapse due to a single five-year-term president who could not foresee the future. If the nuclear phase-out policy had continued for just a few more years, the 24 trillion won Czech nuclear power plant contract would not have been possible.
A nuclear renaissance, an industry revival, is underway worldwide. The need for carbon-free energy sources has increased due to climate change, and the explosive growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry has led to a surge in electricity demand.
Currently, 60 nuclear reactors are under construction in 17 countries. This trend is expected to expand globally. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which has embarked on restoring the nuclear power ecosystem, aims to export 10 nuclear reactors by 2030. This goal does not seem impossible. There is a sense of relief that the self-destructive nuclear phase-out policy conducted by the Moon administration has finally come to an end.
15. Why is ‘Unification of the Korean Peninsula’ being discussed in Mongolia?
I spent 45 minutes conducting an interview with the Chosun reports and they used one tiny excerpt. :-)
This is a Google translation of the Chosun article.
Why is ‘Unification of the Korean Peninsula’ being discussed in Mongolia?
https://weekly.chosun.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=36031&utm
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Participants speak at the 'Mongolia Forum' on the role of civil society in promoting the goal of a unified Korean Peninsula, held at the Best Western Premier Tushin Hotel in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia on July 9 (local time). Photo: Newsis
North Korea is continuously scattering waste balloons toward the South and is also continuing to launch ballistic missiles. On June 19, the 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty' was signed with Russia during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea. Amidst the growing security threats and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the 'Mongolia Forum', which discusses the peaceful development of Northeast Asia and the unification of the Korean Peninsula, was held at a hotel in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia on July 9.
Former President Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat, who served as the first president of Mongolia from 1990 to 1997, opened the forum by saying, “At a time when the Korean Peninsula is so unstable that it is difficult to even talk about peaceful unification, the role of this forum is even more important,” and emphasized, “For the peaceful development of Northeast Asia, we must increase the participation of civil society organizations from each country and attract the younger generation.” Another important topic discussed at the forum that day was “The Role of Civil Society in Promoting the Goal of a Unified Korean Peninsula.”
Kim Dong-soo, an adviser at the Institute for National Security Strategy and a former North Korean diplomat, argued that “depending on how we deal with North Korea’s human rights issues, we can lead to regime change by North Korean residents,” and that “we should actively utilize North Korean defector organizations to this end.” Elena Boykova, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that “civil society activities in international relations need to become more active,” and that “exchanges should be made at the level of civil society, not just at the level of political and diplomatic experts.”
This year’s forum, now in its sixth year, was co-hosted by Blue Banner, a Mongolian non-governmental organization (NGO) for the denuclearization of the country led by Chairman Jagalsaikhan Engsaikhan, former Mongolian Ambassador to the United Nations; the Global Peace Foundation (GPF) founded by World Chairman Moon Hyun-jin; the One Korea Foundation; and People Who Practice Unification (Angels for Unification, AKU). Participants included Mongolian National Assembly member Ondra Abganluvsan, four-term former People Power Party lawmaker Lee Myung-soo, former British Ambassador to North Korea John Everard, Asia-Pacific Strategy Centre Deputy Director David Maxwell, and former International Energy Agency (IEA) Director General Nobuo Tanaka.
Mongolia also experienced both division and regime change.
Mongolia is a kind of divided country, divided into Outer Mongolia in the north and Inner Mongolia in the south, with the Gobi Desert as the boundary. The country we call Mongolia is Outer Mongolia, and Inner Mongolia became the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region when it was incorporated into China. Outer Mongolia gained independence from China with the support of the Soviet Union and became the second communist country in the world after the Soviet Union. After that, in the early 1990s, it transitioned to democracy and a market economy system without bloodshed. That is why people who talk about unification pay attention to the case of Mongolia, which experienced both division and system change.
Mongolia is also a country that has diplomatic relations with both the South and the North. It maintains traditional friendly relations with North Korea, and it has a 'strategic partnership' with South Korea, which celebrates its 34th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year. Surrounded by the great powers of Russia and China, Mongolia pursues a neutral line and balanced diplomacy. Chairman Engsaikhan said, "Mongolia, which is based on a good-neighborly policy, has no territorial disputes or frictions with neighboring countries," and "It is the only country that can hold a meeting while equally guaranteeing the national interests of both South and North Korea."
Mongolia is a 'nuclear-free zone' where not only are there no nuclear weapons, but the use of nuclear weapons is also prohibited. In 1992, it was declared a nuclear-free zone by the UN General Assembly, and in 1998, it was guaranteed its nuclear-free status through a UN General Assembly resolution. In 2012, it received a document confirming the safety of denuclearization from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, becoming a 'nuclear-free country.' Chairman Engsaikhan emphasized, "Mongolia, which has accumulated extraordinary experience in the process of creating a nuclear-free zone, can become a role model for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."
On this day, the forum drew attention with the first joint declaration summarizing the discussions so far. The declaration consisted of five items: “Continuing to promote the Mongolia Forum to build consensus on our goals centered on civil society,” “Establishing a Northeast Asian regional mechanism to promote the launch and implementation of cross-border initiatives such as the Greater Tumen Development Initiative (GTI) and the new clean energy platform,” “Building international support to establish a free and unified Korea in line with the Hongik Ingan philosophy to realize the political, economic, and cultural potential of the Korean Peninsula,” “Strengthening soft power cooperation across Asia through a tree-planting campaign to prevent desertification in Mongolia,” and “Supporting the Global Peace Leadership Corps so that youth can become important actors in the international community to build peace.”
The first joint statement after six forums
David Caprara, strategic advisor at the Global Peace Foundation, told reporters, “There is a mention of a ‘new clean energy platform’ that was not in the draft joint declaration.” At the forum that day, former IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka suggested, “We are currently in the midst of a global energy crisis,” and “We need to create a clean energy platform in Northeast Asia,” which was reflected in the final joint declaration. Former Director-General Nobuo Tanaka said, “Japan and Korea are more vulnerable to energy crises due to their lack of resources, but they can be winners if they develop clean hydrogen and nuclear power together,” and argued, “We need to build new and renewable energy power plants on the land that China, Japan, and Korea are fighting over.”
Meanwhile, there were also comments at this forum about whether 'peaceful unification' is possible. Former British Ambassador to North Korea John Everard said, "Now is the worst time to think about peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula," and criticized, "If North Korea does not change its system, unification may only strengthen China's position."
On the other hand, Seo In-taek, the standing representative of the Unification Angels, said that the current situation on the Korean Peninsula, which is worsening, could actually be a favorable environment for unification. “There are unusual signs that predict a crisis in the North Korean regime. The unification of East and West Germany was achieved through the decision-making of the people. History shows that great transformations begin with ‘change from below.’ In order to prepare for unification, a consensus on the vision of unification must first be created in South Korean society.”
The Camp David Declaration agreed upon by the leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan in August of last year included the content of “supporting a free and peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula.” If the administration changes in the United States ahead of the presidential election, will the Camp David Declaration be maintained? David Maxwell, a former colonel at the US Special Operations Command in Korea and deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, met with reporters after the forum and said, “When a president changes, there are many cases where the policies of the previous president are abandoned, but if Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for president, is elected, he will accurately calculate the benefits,” and “If he determines that the Camp David Declaration is beneficial to his administration, he may maintain it.”
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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