Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


Greetings from Mongolia.


Quotes of the Day:


“Conquering the world on horseback is easy; it is dismounting and governing that is hard.”
- Genghis Khan

“Who questions much shall learn much and retain much.” 
- Francis Bacon



“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice, and lying and greed. If people all over the world… would do this, it would change the earth.” 
- William Faulkner


1. N. Korea opens key party meeting to discuss diplomatic, defense strategies

2. 8th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of 8th WPK Central Committee Convened

3. S. Korea to carry out 1st in-depth inquiry into forced labor in N. Korea

4. US designates N. Korea as ‘worst human trafficking country’

5. NIS faces growing speculation amidst personnel appointment reversal

6. Unification minister confident of winning damages suit against N. Korea

7. Footage shows fighter jets & tanks in US war games for North Korean invasion

8. Blinken speaks to Japanese, S. Korean counterparts ahead of China visit

9. North Korea holds key meeting as US sends nuclear submarine to South Korea

10. Japan’s Plan to Release Nuclear Wastewater Spurs Resistance in South Korea

11. MISSING THE TARGET: The complicated truth about sanctions on North Korea

12. Readout of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl Meetings in the Republic of Korea​



1. N. Korea opens key party meeting to discuss diplomatic, defense strategies



I am sure it will feature criticism of what the regime calls the hostile policy of the US, and will include the alliance and trilateral cooperation as indications of such a policy. 


(2nd LD) N. Korea opens key party meeting to discuss diplomatic, defense strategies | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Shim Sun-ah · June 17, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS photo; UPDATES with minor edits throughout)

SEOUL, June 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has convened a key party meeting to discuss the country's diplomatic and defense strategies in response to the "changed international situation," with its leader Kim Jong-un in attendance, state media reported Saturday.

Kim took part in the eighth "enlarged plenary meeting" of the 8th Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) that opened Friday, according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The meeting will discuss "the issue of the state diplomatic and defence strategy to cope with the changed international situation," and review economic projects undertaken in the first half of this year, the KCNA said in an English-language report.

It said participants unanimously approved agenda items, and that the meeting entered discussions, indicating that it will likely be held for multiple days.


This photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency on June 17, 2023, shows a plenary session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea being held at the committee's headquarters in Pyongyang the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The meeting comes as North Korea has been seeking to strengthen ties with Russia and China amid an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry and Russia's war on Ukraine.

Pyongyang also faces increasing security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan, with the three countries' defense chiefs agreeing to operate a system to share North Korean missile warning data in real time within the year as they met in Singapore early this month.

The North has continued to dial up tensions in recent weeks, firing two short-range ballistic missiles Thursday, and launching a space rocket carrying a purported military spy satellite on May 31, which ended up crashing into the Yellow Sea.


This undated file photo, released by the North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows the country's leader Kim Jong-un. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Shim Sun-ah · June 17, 2023



2. 8th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of 8th WPK Central Committee Convened


The regime statement on the meeting.


Now we can look forward to the conclusion statement and guidance from the party for the future in these areas:


The plenary meeting will review the work of all sectors including the economic sectors in the first half of 2023 for implementing the resolutions of the 6th and 7th plenary meetings of the 8th Party Central Committee and take relevant measures. It will also discuss and decide the policy issues of weighty significance in developing the Korean revolution including the issue of strengthening the Party and building the state and the issue of the state diplomatic and defence strategy to cope with the changed international situation.


The agenda items were unanimously approved at the plenary meeting.

8th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of 8th WPK Central Committee Convened

Date: 17/06/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1686954901-213160851/8th-enlarged-plenary-meeting-of-8th-wpk-central-committee-convened/

Pyongyang, June 17 (KCNA) -- The 8th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) opened at the office building of the WPK Central Committee on June 16.


The respected Comrade Kim Jong Un was present at the plenary meeting.


Attending the meeting were members of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, members and alternate members of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee and members and alternate members of the WPK Central Committee.


Attending the meeting as observers are officials of the relevant departments of the WPK Central Committee and the Cabinet, chairpersons of the provincial, city and county people's committees, chairpersons of the provincial rural economy committees and leading officials of ministries, national institutions and major industrial establishments.


A presidium of the meeting was elected with members of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee.


The plenary meeting will review the work of all sectors including the economic sectors in the first half of 2023 for implementing the resolutions of the 6th and 7th plenary meetings of the 8th Party Central Committee and take relevant measures. It will also discuss and decide the policy issues of weighty significance in developing the Korean revolution including the issue of strengthening the Party and building the state and the issue of the state diplomatic and defence strategy to cope with the changed international situation.


The agenda items were unanimously approved at the plenary meeting.


The plenary meeting entered the discussion of agenda items amid high political consciousness and enthusiasm of all the participants to glorify this significant year of key importance in implementing the resolutions of the 8th Congress of the WPK as a year of great changes and leaps forward to be specially recorded in the history of the country. -0-


www.kcna.kp (Juche112.6.17.)




3. S. Korea to carry out 1st in-depth inquiry into forced labor in N. Korea



We cannot emphasize this enough: We need a human rights upfront approach. This is clearly an indication that South Korea is pursuing one.


I wonder about this:


The results will not be disclosed to the public and will only be used by the government to draw up policies on North Korean human rights.


S. Korea to carry out 1st in-depth inquiry into forced labor in N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 18, 2023

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea plans to carry out its first in-depth inquiry into forced labor practices in North Korea through interviews with defectors who have arrived in South Korea over the past five years, sources said Sunday.

North Korean Human Rights Records Center will conduct the interviews through the end of the year to learn details of the forced labor practices taking place at North Korea's detention facilities, schools and various social organizations, according to the sources.

The inquiry by the center affiliated with the unification ministry will look into changes in forced labor practices before and after the launch of the Kim Jong-un regime and the relevant laws and systems of forced labor. Kim took over North Korea in 2011 after the sudden death of his father and longtime leader Kim Jong-il.

The results will not be disclosed to the public and will only be used by the government to draw up policies on North Korean human rights.

Last year, the unification ministry conducted an in-depth inquiry into women's rights and labor rights in North Korea.

In 2014, the U.N. Commission of Inquiry issued a report after a yearlong probe that stated North Korean leaders are responsible for "widespread, systematic and gross" violations of human rights.


Unification Minister Kwon Young-se gives a press briefing at the government complex in Seoul, in this Sept. 8, 2022, file photo. (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 18, 2023

4. US designates N. Korea as ‘worst human trafficking country’


Should not be a surprise here. But the regime (and the Chinese) allows terrible things to happen to the Korean people (especially women and children) from the north.


US designates N. Korea as ‘worst human trafficking country’

donga.com


Posted June. 17, 2023 08:04,

Updated June. 17, 2023 08:04

US designates N. Korea as ‘worst human trafficking country’. June. 17, 2023 08:04. weappon@donga.com.

In the "2023 Trafficking in Persons Report" released on Thursday (local time), the U.S. State Department rated North Korea as the worst trafficking country for 21 consecutive years. Korea remained on "Tier 2" for two consecutive years following last year.


The report put North Korea on Tier 3, the lowest level, and estimated 80,000 to 120,000 prisoners to be detained in political prison camps and 20,000 to 100,000 North Korean workers to be working in restaurants and factories in China. It also pointed out that the DPRK government used proceeds from state-sponsored forced labor to fund government operations.


Additionally, North Koreans who cross the border to defect or seek asylum in a third country are subject to a minimum of five years of 'reform through labor.' When North Korean defectors in China are caught by Chinese authorities, they are forcibly returned by China, to detention and interrogation centers, where the government subjects them to forced labor, torture, forced abortions, and sexual abuse.”


China was also rated as Tier 3 along with North Korea. The report raised the issue of forced repatriation to North Korea, saying, “Chinese authorities detain North Korean asylum-seekers and forcibly return some to the DPRK, where they likely faced severe punishment or death.”


“The government did not report identifying any forced labor victims despite reports of the prevalence of labor trafficking among migrant workers in the ROK,” the State Department pointed out regarding South Korea. “The South Korean government is making significant efforts to eradicate human trafficking. The government demonstrated overall increasing efforts.”


Since 2001, the United States has published an annual Trafficking in Persons Report that categorizes countries assessed under its laws into Tiers 1-3. Korea received Tier 3 in its first report in 2001, but maintained on Tier 1 until it was classified as Tier 2 last year. In this year's report, Japan, Switzerland, and New Zealand along with South Korea were classified as Tier 2, and 24 countries including North Korea, China, and Russia were classified as Tier 3.

한국어

donga.com


5. NIS faces growing speculation amidst personnel appointment reversal


Excerpt:


As indicated on the sign in the presidential office, the ultimate responsibility for state affairs lies with the president. Similarly, the heads of each department bear the responsibility for their respective departments. If an inappropriate personnel proposal is presented to the president, the person accountable is not A, but rather the head of the NIS. If there are concerns regarding personnel matters, it would be more appropriate to hold the NIS chief accountable first and then, if necessary, proceed with any necessary reversals. The current reversal of the order has led to a growing accumulation of speculations, such as “expelling Kim,” which only adds to public confusion regarding the situation unfolding within the NIS.


NIS faces growing speculation amidst personnel appointment reversal

donga.com


Posted June. 17, 2023 08:02,

Updated June. 17, 2023 08:02

NIS faces growing speculation amidst personnel appointment reversal. June. 17, 2023 08:02. .

The first-grade personnel changes in the National Intelligence Service (NIS), which President Yoon Suk Yeol reversed just five days after his return earlier this month, involved the appointment of a senior official with a background in domestic politics who had worked closely with NIS Director Kim Gyu-hyun’s aide A, to the position of Minister Counselor in the political section of the U.S. and Japanese embassies. Additionally, it has been reported that a third-grade official, who shared a professional connection with A (a second-grade official), was promoted to director-level official (first-grade) in the department responsible for North Korea-related affairs. It is reported that President Yoon verified the concerns regarding A's excessive involvement in personnel matters and directly withdrew the personnel affairs.


Some argue that A recommended individuals with whom he had personal connections and that these individuals were themselves controversial figures. Among them, it is alleged that there was the person responsible for drafting the NIS version of former President Moon Jae-in's speech at the Neungrado Stadium during his visit to Pyongyang. Additionally, there were allegations of another individual who allegedly bypassed the NIS director at the time and directly reported to Woo Byung-woo, the Cheong Wa Dae Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, during the Park Geun-hye administration.


Upon assuming office, President Yoon took immediate action by instructing all first-level executives appointed during the Moon government to suspend their duties, leading to replacements not only in the first grade but also in the second and third grades. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a “reversal after the presidential transition” is highly unusual. This development highlights the intricate internal dynamics within the NIS, suggesting that even after the removal of executives hired by the previous administration, the agency remains influenced by hardliners who believe that the executive team from the previous administration has not been replaced thoroughly.


Within the NIS, the president has appointed some former prosecutors to gain insight into the agency's internal affairs. At the start of the administration, former Deputy Prosecutor Cho Sang-joon was appointed as the head of the Planning and Management Office. However, for unclear reasons, he bypassed the position of NIS Director and submitted his resignation letter directly to the President. It has been analyzed that the successive appointments of former prosecutors in leadership positions have cultivated a personal network that allows them to access internal information from the NIS. This factor further contributes to the confusion surrounding NIS personnel.


As indicated on the sign in the presidential office, the ultimate responsibility for state affairs lies with the president. Similarly, the heads of each department bear the responsibility for their respective departments. If an inappropriate personnel proposal is presented to the president, the person accountable is not A, but rather the head of the NIS. If there are concerns regarding personnel matters, it would be more appropriate to hold the NIS chief accountable first and then, if necessary, proceed with any necessary reversals. The current reversal of the order has led to a growing accumulation of speculations, such as “expelling Kim,” which only adds to public confusion regarding the situation unfolding within the NIS.

한국어

donga.com




6. Unification minister confident of winning damages suit against N. Korea


Winning, yes. Collecting damages, no. Changing nK behavior, ​perhaps. Necessary for future support to transitional justice, yes.


Unification minister confident of winning damages suit against N. Korea

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 16, 2023

South Korea's unification minister voiced confidence Friday in winning a damages suit the government has filed against Pyongyang over its 2020 demolition of an inter-Korean liaison office in North Korea's border city of Kaesong.

The remarks by Kwon Young-se, who is in charge of Seoul's inter-Korean affairs, came two days after the government lodged a 44.7 billion-won ($35 million) damages suit against North Korea for blowing up the liaison office on June 16, 2020.

It marked the first time that the South Korean government has sued North Korea.

"There is no difficulty whatsoever, except for specifying the amount in detail," Kwon said in a CBS radio interview, adding that he believes the chances of winning the damages suit filed with a Seoul court is "100 percent."

The minister acknowledged that there are no realistic means to force the North to compensate but emphasized that winning the case would be "very meaningful" as it shows that Seoul will not tolerate Pyongyang's wrongdoings.

The government of Yoon Suk Yeol, which came into power in May last year, has pledged to take a tough stance against the North's provocative acts in comparison to the former Moon Jae-in administration that prioritized cross-border reconciliation.

Against such a backdrop, Kwon slammed the former liberal government and the head of the main opposition party over allegations of money transactions involving the North, saying that should the claims turn out to be true, such "submissive" and "senseless" efforts to engage the North are "neither desirable nor sustainable."

The unification ministry has vowed to take legal action against the North's infringement on the property rights of South Koreans even if it takes time.

Such cases include Pyongyang's unauthorized use of South Korean-owned assets at a now-shuttered joint industrial complex in Kaesong and its demolition of South Korean-built facilities at the Mount Kumgang resort.

The North has yet to respond to the damages suit.

On Thursday, it fired two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea in apparent protest over a recent series of massive South Korea-US live-fire drills that ended this week. (Yonhap)

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 16, 2023



7. Footage shows fighter jets & tanks in US war games for North Korean invasion

 

​Video and photos at the link: https://www.the-sun.com/news/8389437/incredible-footage-war-games-korea/


I hope Kim Jong Un is studying this in detail.


Footage shows fighter jets & tanks in US war games for North Korean invasion

the-sun.com · by Jacob Jaffa · June 16, 2023

INCREDIBLE footage has shown fighter jets, choppers and tanks taking part in US-led war games simulating a North Korean invasion.

Joint exercises with South Korean allies saw the Americans deploy a nuclear-powered submarine as Pyongyang warned of an "inevitable" response.

7

The US and South Korea have been taking part in joint military exercisesCredit: EPA

7

Stunning footage of the drills shows tanks, choppers and jets firing live roundsCredit: EPA

7

The event was overseen by South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeolCredit: EPA

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol personally oversaw the finale of the "annihilation" exercises, involving over 2,500 troops and 610 "state-of-the-art weapons" yesterday.

Videos of the drills show jets swooping at high speeds while firing live rounds over the Seungjing Firing Range in Pocheon, near the Korean border.

Choppers and tanks then roll in to participate in the practice, which is designed to mimic an invasion from the North.

Speaking at the event, Mr Yoon said: "Protecting our national security by ourselves is the real peace.

"Only a powerful army that foes would not dare overcome and an army that can win against enemies can guarantee the freedom, peace and prosperity of South Korea."

However, the exercises prompted a furious reaction from Pyongyang.

The country's defence ministry said in a statement: "Our response to this is inevitable.

"Our armed forces will fully counter any form of demonstrative moves and provocation of the enemies."

It comes as northern forces were accused of violating the demilitarised zone between the nations "under the pretext of controlling crab-catching fishing boats in the Yellow Sea".

Meanwhile, the North fired off two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea as tensions mount in the wake of a summit between Mr Yoon and President Biden.

The US leader took a firm line, warning that any nuclear attack on the US or its allies from North Korea would result in the end of the regime that launched it.

The Americans also agreed to ramp up their strategic assets in the South.

7

Over 2,500 soldiers were involvedCredit: Getty

7

It comes at a time of escalating tensions on the Korean PeninsulaCredit: EPA

7

Pyongyang promised an 'inevitable' responseCredit: EPA

7

President Biden warned about the consequences of a nuclear attack on the US or its alliesCredit: Reuters

the-sun.com · by Jacob Jaffa · June 16, 2023



8. Blinken speaks to Japanese, S. Korean counterparts ahead of China visit


China does not like this cooperation. But it has only itself and north Korea to blame for it.


Blinken speaks to Japanese, S. Korean counterparts ahead of China visit - UPI.com

By Patrick Hilsman

upi.com


Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's high profile trip to China this weekend was preceded by phone conversations with top diplomats from Japan and South Korea on Saturday. File Photo by Samuel Corum/UPI | License Photo

June 17 (UPI) -- Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa on Saturday ahead of a closely watched trip to China.

Blinken departed for his trip Friday night amid speculation that he could meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping after arriving in China on Sunday.

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The conversations with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts focused heavily on concerns regarding North Korea's ballistic missile program, according to the State Department.

"The Secretary and the Foreign Minister condemned [North Korea's] continued unlawful ballistic missile launches and noted the need for the [China] to use its influence to encourage Pyongyang to engage in serious and sustained diplomacy," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement describing the conversation with Park.

Defense issues featured prominently in Blinken's conversation with Japan's Yoshimasa as well.

"The secretary condemned [the North's] continued unlawful ballistic missile launches into the Sea of Japan and reaffirmed the United States' ironclad commitment to the defense of Japan," the State Department said.

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Blinken and Yoshimasa noted the "unprecedented frequency" of the launches, declaring they constitute "a grave and imminent threat to the regional security and pose a clear and serious challenge to the international community."

"Intense competition requires sustained diplomacy to ensure that competition does not veer into confrontation or conflict," Blinken told reporters in Washington Friday after meeting diplomats from Singapore. "This is an important, but in a sense, insufficient step because there's a lot of work to be done."

Blinken's trip, which was agreed upon in November, was originally planned for February, but was delayed when a Chinese spy balloon passed over the United States.

upi.com


9.  North Korea holds key meeting as US sends nuclear submarine to South Korea




North Korea holds key meeting as US sends nuclear submarine to South Korea

Kim Jong-un attended the conference to review defence strategies and the country’s struggling economy

The Guardian · June 17, 2023

North Korea opened a key political conference with leader Kim Jong-un in attendance to discuss improving its struggling economy and reviewing defence strategies in the face of growing tensions with rivals, according to state media reports.

The enlarged plenary meeting of the ruling Workers’ party’s central committee came as the US sent a nuclear-powered submarine to South Korea in the allies’ latest show of force against the North, which has ramped up its testing of nuclear-capable missiles to a record pace in recent months.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken held a call with South Korean foreign minister Park Jin ahead of his visit to China. The two discussed bilateral relations, relations between China and South Korea, and North Korea.

Kim Jong-un ‘holds hands’ with Vladimir Putin as Russia-North Korea ties deepen

Read more

Blinken and Park strongly condemned what they consider North Korea’s repeated provocations in a statement released by South Korea’s foreign ministry. The two agreed the US, South Korea and Japan should continue to urge China to play a constructive role in the UN security council on denuclearisation.

During the first day of meetings Friday, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said, party officials reviewed the country’s economic campaigns for the first half of 2023, and discussed foreign policy and defence strategies to “cope with the changed international situation”.

The KCNA didn’t specify what was discussed or mention any comments made by Kim. It said the meeting will continue for at least another day.

The arrival on Friday of the USS Michigan in the South Korean port of Busan came a day after North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern seas in response to US-South Korean live fire drills that took place near the inter-Korean border this week.

The US and South Korean navies are planning to conduct exercises focused on sharpening their special operation and joint combat capabilities.

Pyongyang has condemned the allies’ combined exercises as invasion rehearsals. North Korea has used the expanding US-South Korean drills as a pretext to ramp up its own weapons demonstrations, including test-firing about 100 missiles since the start of 2022.

Experts say Kim’s aggressive weapons push has put further strain on North Korea’s isolated economy, which was already damaged by decades of mismanagement, crippling US-led sanctions over his nuclear weapons program, and pandemic-related border closures that reduced trade with China, its main ally and economic lifeline.

The Guardian · June 17, 2023



10. Japan’s Plan to Release Nuclear Wastewater Spurs Resistance in South Korea



Does misinformation or disinformation cause these different views in Japan and the ROK?


Just as an aside for the headline editor - is detente an appropriate word to describe the ROK-Japan relationship? While there is friction over this and other issues, there is a lot of cooperation going on between the two countries. (But I suppose within the definition it could be the right word: "the easing of hostility or strained relations, especially between countries: a serious effort at detente with the eastern bloc.")


Excerpts:


The International Atomic Energy Agency has been conducting an inspection and plans to announce its multiyear safety review later this month.
A joint poll by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo newspapers published on Thursday revealed 84% of South Koreans were opposed to the discharge of Fukushima water, while 60% of Japanese respondents were in favor.


Japan’s Plan to Release Nuclear Wastewater Spurs Resistance in South Korea

Backlash over a proposal involving the damaged Fukushima plant risks disrupting a Seoul-Tokyo detente

By Dasl YoonFollow

 in Seoul and Miho InadaFollow

 in Tokyo

June 16, 2023 9:00 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-plan-to-release-nuclear-wastewater-spurs-resistance-in-south-korea-826f1126?


South Korea’s prime minister made an unusual promise this week, saying he would be willing to drink water discharged from Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant if it met international standards.

The declaration by Han Duck-soo during a parliamentary session came as a debate rages in South Korea over Japan’s plan to release water into the ocean from the nuclear plant, which was damaged by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has said that he would seek better public understanding of the safety issues around the discharge. But he has faced a political backlash and skepticism among much of the public.


Yoon has taken steps in recent months to repair South Korea’s relations with Japan, long marred by historical disputes, and deepen military ties to address growing security threats from China and North Korea. But the plan to release radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima plant—also opposed by China—risks disrupting the Seoul-Tokyo detente.

This week, South Korean lawmakers questioned the prime minister, the vice minister of oceans and fisheries and the head of the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission over South Korea’s response to the planned wastewater discharge. Yoon administration officials have vowed to protect the public’s health and safety, but opposition lawmakers have accused ruling party members of giving priority to relations with Japan over public safety.

“South Koreans are highly sensitive to Japan-related issues because of longstanding historical disputes and the deepening political polarization has turned Fukushima into a way to attack the other party,” said Lee Won-duk, a professor of Japanese studies at Kookmin University in Seoul. 


Japan says that tanks holding water used to cool reactor cores at the Fukushima nuclear plant are near full capacity. PHOTO: MARI YAMAGUCHI/ASSOCIATED PRESS

In 2011, three reactors at the Fukushima plant melted down after the earthquake and tsunami damaged their cooling systems. Water used to cool the reactor cores has accumulated in tanks at the site, but the tanks had reached 97% capacity last month. Japan says all the water released will be treated to make it both safe and legal to release into the ocean, where it will be further diluted by seawater. The countries are separated by a body of water that Japanese call the Sea of Japan and South Koreans call the East Sea.

Under the plan, beginning this summer, the plant would release more than 1.3 million tons of water gradually over two to three decades, Japanese officials said. The plant began testing the system to discharge water on Monday, said an official from Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings, or Tepco.

In May, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan would welcome a team of South Korean experts to the site to investigate safety concerns. A 21-member South Korean delegation visited the Fukushima plant later that month to examine its custom purification system and facilities storing radioactive substances. The delegation confirmed that proper equipment was installed to halt the discharge of the treated water in the event of an abnormality. But they needed to do further analysis to determine whether the concentration level of radioactive substances in the water was safe and whether the system would work long-term, said the head of the delegation, Yoo Geun-hee.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has been conducting an inspection and plans to announce its multiyear safety review later this month.

A joint poll by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo newspapers published on Thursday revealed 84% of South Koreans were opposed to the discharge of Fukushima water, while 60% of Japanese respondents were in favor.


Yoo Geun-hee, who heads a South Korean delegation sent to inspect the Fukushima plant, says further analysis is needed. PHOTO: YONHAP NEWS/ZUMA PRESS

In South Korea, differing views frequently reflect a political divide. Under former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Seoul strongly opposed Tokyo’s plan to release the contaminated water. During the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, South Korea’s team cooked food for its athletes separately and screened ingredients for radiation, citing safety concerns of Fukushima produce.

The current administration in Seoul isn’t likely to be swayed by the public pressure over the issue. “Yoon needs to maintain support from conservative supporters who see improving ties with Japan as a crucial diplomatic achievement,” said Yang Kee-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University in Seoul. 

Meanwhile, some Japanese politicians have made a point of eating food from Fukushima. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ate grilled fish caught close to the nuclear plant in 2014. 

But fishermen in the region said the release of Fukushima water would cause reputational damage. “We all remain absolutely opposed to it,” said Tadaaki Sawada, a spokesman at Fukushima Prefectural Federation of Fisheries Co-operative Associations.

Dozens of countries banned imports of produce from Fukushima and nearby prefectures. In 2019, the World Trade Organization upheld South Korea’s import ban on Japanese seafood from areas affected by the nuclear disaster. At the time, Japan’s foreign minister summoned the South Korean ambassador to convey Tokyo’s displeasure. Tokyo had sought to persuade Seoul to reverse its ban through talks.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration lifted restrictions on the food imports from regions affected by the nuclear disaster in 2021, following a similar move by the European Union. Despite the thaw in relations, South Korea said its ban on Fukushima seafood imports would remain in place for now.

Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com and Miho Inada at miho.inada@wsj.com

Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the June 17, 2023, print edition as 'Japanese Nuclear Plan Spurs a Korean Backlash'.




11. MISSING THE TARGET: The complicated truth about sanctions on North Korea



Conclusion:


Removing sanctions would not change the basics of North Korea’s economic system. Despite a permissive attitude towards markets during former supreme leader Kim Jong-il’s reign and the first few years of Kim Jong-un’s, harsh state control over the economy best serves the regime’s political and social goals by allowing it to control the distribution of resources. Sanctions hurt, but removing them is no silver bullet for political or economic progress.


MISSING THE TARGET: The complicated truth about sanctions on North Korea

nkeconwatch.com

The following article was published in East Asia Forum Quarterly‘s June issue, and is re-published here with permission.

On the surface, sanctions seem to have had little impact on North Korea’s behaviour. At the time of writing, the world is waiting for the launch of a new North Korean military spy satellite that Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un announced on 19 April 2023.

North Korea is under one of the harshest multilateral sanctions regimes of any country in the world. But the country still circumvents sanctions regularly through complex smuggling operations at which it is by now very adept. This situation raises questions about whether sanctions on North Korea have failed.

It is true that sanctions have not reached the stated political goal of inducing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. The country has made impressive advances in missile technology and is evidently capable of acquiring the necessary technology despite sanctions. The ‘spy satellite’ launch would be one of around 30 missiles tested in 2023.

Although North Korea has ways to evade sanctions, this does not mean sanctions have no impact. Sanctions interplay with domestic governance and economic systems in ways that are complex and often hard to fully evaluate. The alternative to sanctions is not an open, liberal and free-trading North Korea, but likely a slightly more well-off version of its current state.

The issue of evasion illustrates why the impact of sanctions is so hard to evaluate. Sanctions-evading actions are not rare events, but are institutionalised within North Korea’s economy. Since the 1970s, North Korea has systematically smuggled alcohol, tobacco, drugs and other contraband through its diplomatic networks abroad. These activities continue today and with North Korean capabilities expanding into the cyber realm, sources of illicit income will likely continue to constitute an underestimated part of the regime’s hard-currency revenue flows.

But sanctions evasion and smuggling are very expensive activities. For Chinese, Taiwanese and Singaporean trading companies and entities to risk smuggling oil to North Korea, Pyongyang must pay a massive risk premium on its purchases. North Korea has to pay well above market prices to give sellers a reason to take the risk of arrest and prosecution for sanctions violations.

The same is true for illicit North Korean exports. Sanctions do not stop coal exports entirely, but they slash the prices that North Korea can charge. Any buyer—almost always China—will only risk importing from North Korea if prices are cheap enough to outweigh the risks. Even prior to the harsher sanctions levied in 2016 and 2017, China, through its position as a virtual monopoly buyer, consistently paid below-market prices for North Korean coal. This dynamic is likely even stronger today, as Chinese imports of coal and other sanctioned North Korean goods continue but go mostly unrecorded.

Despite North Korea’s evasion tactics, sanctions are indisputably hurting the North Korean economy. The country’s exports are estimated to be worth only a few hundred million dollars per year—much smaller than its . The UN Panel of Experts estimated, for example, that North Korea earned around 370 million dollars from sanctions-violating coal exports in 2019. This is only a fraction of the 1.19 billion dollars it earned from such exports in 2016, before the harsher sanctions.

The civilian impact of sanctions is unclear. On one hand, sanctions have likely dealt a harsh blow to labour-intensive industries like textiles, where a of workers are women, resulting in increased unemployment and lower wages. The falling incomes of North Koreans working in sanctioned industries substantially dampen the wider economy. On the other hand, there is no evidence that sanctions have driven up the price of food or other essential goods.

Sanctions have undoubtedly worsened North Korea’s food shortage by hindering imports of fertiliser and spare parts for agricultural equipment. North Korea’s own border closure, though, likely also provided an obstacle to foreign trade. But the impact of sanctions on North Korea’s food system is minimal compared with the regime’s refusal to undertake basic reforms in agriculture. The government bristles at dismantling collective farms or letting farmers sell their products on open markets.

Trade by evasion should logically become easier and cheaper. For sanctions to be effective against North Korea, China—which constitutes more than 90 per cent of North Korea’s foreign trade—would have to implement them. As US–China tensions continue to grow, reasons for China to implement sanctions on North Korea are diminishing.

Reports of North Korean trade deals in weapons and labour with Russia in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are already circulating. Very little is confirmed about these transactions, but there is evidence to support increased economic exchange between the countries. Earlier this year, satellite imagery from the border area indicated that Russia was increasing oil exports to North Korea while exporting unknown goods that could be arms destined for the Wagner Group.

But this does not change North Korea’s situation. Combined with its poor global reputation, sanctions will continue to make North Korea dependent on a very small number of trade partners—mainly China —who can charge highly unfavourable prices.

None of this is to say that the current thinking on North Korea sanctions is without serious flaws. The demand that denuclearisation should come before any relief on sanctions, for example, is unrealistic. But many also exaggerate the possible gains of abolishing sanctions. A common misperception is that, were sanctions to be lifted, North Korea would open its doors to foreign investors who would flock to the country for its strategic geographic location and cheap labour.

Removing sanctions would not change the basics of North Korea’s economic system. Despite a permissive attitude towards markets during former supreme leader Kim Jong-il’s reign and the first few years of Kim Jong-un’s, harsh state control over the economy best serves the regime’s political and social goals by allowing it to control the distribution of resources. Sanctions hurt, but removing them is no silver bullet for political or economic progress.

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein is Associate Fellow at the Swedish Institute for Foreign Affairs and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Safra Center for Ethics at Tel Aviv University.


This entry was posted on Friday, June 16th, 2023 at 3:00 am and is filed under International tradeSanctions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can , or trackback from your own site.

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12. Readout of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl Meetings in the Republic of Korea​


Readout of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl Meetings in the Republic of Korea​

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Release

Immediate Release

June 15, 2023 |×

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Department of Defense Spokesman Lt. Col. David Herndon provided the following readout:

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl departed the Republic of Korea (ROK) today after productive counterpart talks with the government of the Republic of Korea and site visits.

Affirming our ironclad commitment to the U.S.-ROK Alliance, Under Secretary Kahl met with Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup, Vice Minister of National Defense Shin Beom-chul, and First Deputy Director for the ROK National Security Advisor Kim Tae-hyo. Discussions focused on addressing the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) destabilizing behavior, further enhancing our extended deterrence efforts through the upcoming inaugural meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, developing additional trilateral security cooperation with Japan, and addressing regional security concerns by coordinating our security cooperation efforts in the Indo-Pacific.

Under Secretary Kahl's visit to the Republic of Korea emphasizes the strength of the U.S.-ROK Alliance and the importance of working together as Allies to preserve peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the broader Indo-Pacific region.














De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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