Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"How wonderful it is that nobody needs to wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." -

– Ann Frank

"Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it."

– Robert Heinlein

"We do not acquire humility. There is humility in us - only we humiliate ourselves before false gods."

– Simone Weil

1. There is only one war going on and it is global

2. Iran's Attack on Israel: Four Important Lessons for Ukraine and World

3. Raw From an Election Drubbing, South Korea’s Unpopular President Says Sorry

4. The desperate alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea

5. Largest joint airpower drills over Korean Peninsula include 25 aircraft types

6. Korean War hero Ralph Puckett to lie in honor at US Capitol

7. How to monitor North Korean nuclear violations after Russia’s UN veto

8. China’s Hands Are Tied Against Tangle of US Alliances

9. Beyond the Ballot: Analysis and Implications of the South Korean General Election in 2024

10. North Korea is buying Chinese surveillance cameras in a push to tighten control, report says

11. What N. Korea gains - and loses - through its new unification policy

12. Digital Surveillance in North Korea: Moving Toward a Digital Panopticon State

13. Ex-N. Korean diplomat indicted on sanctions evasion, money laundering charges in U.S.

14. NIS monitoring possible use of N. Korea's weapons technology for Iran's attack on Israel

15. Yoon, Kishida agree to deepen trilateral ties with U.S.

16. US Says Russia’s Arms Trade With North Korea Violates Sanctions

17. US 'incredibly concerned' about suspected NK-Iran military ties

18. Belarusian deputy FM visits N. Korea: KCNA

19. [Kim Seong-kon] Democracy and the future of South Korea

1. There is only one war going on and it is global

This article is in line with what I have long thought about the axis of authoritarian/totalitarian/dictators (the revisionist, revolutionary, and rogue powers) in this graphic above. I am "pleased" to see Mr. Axe include north Korea as its contributions and participation is too often overlooked. too often overlooked.

There is only one war going on and it is global

Iran, North Korea and China are Russia’s arsenals of autocracy

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/15/world-war-west-allies-iran-russia-china-north-korea/?utm

DAVID AXE

16 April 2024 • 8:38am

Like it or not, Russia’s wider war in Ukraine is part of a world war. A world war pitting a quartet of authoritarian states against the world’s democracies. It’s Russia and Russia’s allies – China, Iran and North Korea – against Ukraine and its allies. These are most of the Western democracies and, in fits and starts, the United States. The problem is that only the autocracies are acting like the war is what it is: global.

Unless and until this changes, Ukraine will be at a disadvantage. If and when it does change, Russia could suffer a swift and lasting defeat. A defeat that might teach the other autocracies a lesson or two.

It might be comforting, to the distracted populaces of rich and free countries, to think of the war in Ukraine as a regional war. A small war. One pitting just two countries against each other.

That was never the case. Not since the first days of the war in early 2022, when an alliance of free countries swiftly came together to supply Ukraine with the intelligence, weapons and money it needed to defend and sustain itself as Russian regiments poured over the border and across the frontier in Russian-occupied Donbas.

And then Russia mobilized its own allies. First Iran, which supplied Russia with Russia’s first effective drone design, the explosive Shahed, starting in the fall of 2022. Each 400-pound drone hauls a 100-pound warhead as far as 1,500 miles – and does it cheaply, at just $50,000 a copy.

In first buying Shaheds, and then building them under license at a factory in Russian Tatarstan, the Russians gained an inexpensive deep-strike munition: something they didn’t have before.

In March alone, according to Ukrainian president Zelensky, the Russians launched 600 Shaheds at Ukraine.

“This campaign of terror affects numerous cities and villages throughout Ukraine,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.

Next, late last year, North Korea stepped up to solve one of Russia’s most serious problems: a shortage of artillery shells. Russians batteries fired tens of thousands of shells a day in the early weeks of the war – a rate of fire that steadily decreased as the war dragged on and munitions stockpiles ran low.

By mid-2023, Ukrainian forces actually enjoyed a firepower advantage over Russian forces – and for one simple reason. “The West provided more artillery ammunition to Ukraine than Russia received from its partners,” according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group.

In January 2024, that changed. Moscow cut a deal with Pyongyang to swap Russian food for millions of North Korean shells. It didn’t help that, at the same time, Russia-aligned Republicans in the US Congress blocked further US aid to Ukraine, depriving the Ukrainians of hundreds of thousands of American shells.

“Russia is now getting more rounds than the West sends to Ukraine, thanks to continuous ammunition shipments from North Korea that went into full swing in the fall of 2023,” Frontelligence explained.

Meanwhile, China moved to rebuild Russia’s arms industry, which was suffering under foreign sanctions that deprived it of microelectronics and precision tooling. The kind of microelectronics that are necessary for producing drones and missiles – and the kind of tooling that’s necessary for producing fresh barrels for howitzers.

This week, officials with the administration of US president Joe Biden told the Associated Press that China was providing 90 percent of Russia’s microelectronics imports and 70 percent of its tooling imports. If, during World War II, the United States was the United Kingdom’s arsenal of democracy, today Iran, North Korea and China are Russia’s arsenals of autocracy.

Russia cannot win in Ukraine without allies from all over the world – no more than Ukraine can win without its own allies on several continents. Yes, the actual combat is in Ukraine and Russia, with Iran also engaged against Israel both by proxy and now directly. But the wider conflict is global.

Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US Army General Christopher Cavoli. Cavoli has called Russia a 'chronic threat' and warned that it will not be satisfied with invading Ukraine CREDIT: Virginia Mayo/AP

The stakes are global, too.

“Russia does not intend to stop with Ukraine,” US Army general Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command and also Nato’s supreme allied commander in Europe, said this week. “Russia presents a chronic threat.”

Cavoli said he was also worried about Russia’s dependence on China, North Korea and Iran. “These countries are forming interlocking, strategic partnerships in an attempt to challenge the existing order,” Cavoli said. “This is profoundly inimical to US national interests.” And the interests of the whole free world.

The world’s most powerful autocracies are already treating the Ukraine war like a world war. They support Russia in order to assert the power of countries like Russia to attack, conquer and oppress when and where they choose. This idea is now spreading.

Will the world’s most powerful democracies respond with equal force – and support Ukraine in order to assert the right of countries like Ukraine to choose their own destinies, and live in peace?

The answer, for the leading democracy – the United States – is a qualified sort of. Republicans have been blocking aid to Ukraine since October, and defending their isolationism in part by arguing, wrongly, that the war in Ukraine is only about Ukraine. And that it’s none of America’s business.

That certainly isn’t the view being taken in Tehran, Pyongyang and Beijing.

2. Iran's Attack on Israel: Four Important Lessons for Ukraine and World

The world includes South korea. There are some lessons here.

The four lessons:

Lesson 1. Aviation has proven its high efficiency

Lesson #2. Israel is being helped because it has been helping itself for a long time and systematically

Lesson #3. We must learn from Israel about political communications and how to lobby for our own interests in the world

Lesson 4. Diplomacy has lost, sanctions are not working, the UN should be reformed

Iran's Attack on Israel: Four Important Lessons for Ukraine and World

16.04.2024 15:15

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3853035-irans-attack-on-israel-four-important-lessons-for-ukraine-and-world.html?utm

Can the world prevent a global war, and can Ukraine effectively "close" its skies?

Of course, the consequences of Iran's attack are not as significant as they could have been. Virtually no damage was done to either Israel's military or civilian infrastructure. An almost absolute result: 99% of air targets (over 300 missiles and drones) were destroyed, and not even over Israel. We know what the secret is: Israel's three-tiered air defense system, as well as assistance from its allies-the United States, Britain, France, and Jordan-whose aircraft and permits helped repel the attack.

In any case, this could be considered an official declaration of war. But the leaders of the United States and Europe (as well as the countries of the region) are actively trying to dissuade Israel from retaliating against Iran. How convincing their arguments will be, and whether Tel Aviv will listen to them, remains to be seen. However, the first lessons of what happened are already clearly visible.

IMPORTANT LESSONS FOR UKRAINE AND THE WORLD

Lesson 1. Aviation has proven its high efficiency

In a commentary to Ukrinform, Israeli Defense Forces officer and military analyst Yigal Levin emphasized that aviation played an extremely important role, if not a key one, in countering the Iranian air threat. Kamikaze drones and cruise missiles are aerodynamic targets, meaning they can easily be shot down by fighter jets.

"It is very important for Ukraine to get American F-16s, French Mirage-200s... These are not just airplanes in the classical sense that can strike targets on the ground. This is a platform that can carry various weapons, such as air-to-air missiles. And it can shoot down SAMs, the same drones or Kalibr, X-55, X-101 cruise missiles, etc. Yes, the Ukrainian Air Force has the practice of shooting down Shaheds using fighter jets, such as MiG-29s. But you need to understand that, of course, the quality of this equipment, avionics, and quantity play a significant role. After all, it is one thing to have 20 outdated Soviet fighters in service, and quite another to have 50 F-16s or other modern Western aircraft," the military expert points out.

Therefore, the only lesson for Ukraine is that it needs to build up its fighter aviation, in particular to protect itself from such threats.

"Ukraine needs aviation as an additional means of air defense," emphasized Mr. Levin.

Valeriy Romanenko, an aviation expert, made a similar point. According to him, when it comes to cruise missiles, since ballistic missiles cannot be shot down from an airplane, a fighter jet is the most effective means of destruction. For him, a non-maneuverable object flying at a constant speed is just "candy."

"The cruising speed of a cruise missile is about 700-750 km, while the F-16 can accelerate to 1500 km. It's easy to aim, and it shoots expensive cruise missiles like a cannon, with cheap short-range air-to-air missiles, such as the American AIM-9 Sidewinder missile. Thus, a fighter jet is the most effective and cost-effective weapon against cruise missiles," Mr. Romanenko emphasized.

However, he continues, Ukraine needs not only aircraft. Israel's air defense forces are well prepared to repel air attacks - they are trained and have enough missiles to shoot down. Our capabilities are much lower due to the delay in military aid from the United States, as well as limited support from other partners. But there is a solution.

"We are asking for additional Patriots. This is good, but I want to remind you of the "hybrid" air defense systems that Ukraine and the United States have created as part of the FrankenSAM program, which will allow us to launch modern Western-caliber anti-aircraft missiles from modernized Soviet launchers. For example, one version of the "hybrid" air defense system combines Buk launchers and Sea Sparrow missiles, while the other one uses Soviet radars and AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles."

The aviation expert emphasizes that we have a lot of launchers left, but not enough missiles for them.

"After the number of cruise missiles and drones launched at us and shot down, there are almost no such missiles left. We can't ask anyone else for them either, because what potential partners had, they have already given them to us. So, we need to actively continue working on FrankenSAM. There are still a lot of AIM-9M Sidewinde, Sparrow, MIM-23 HAWK missiles in the West," said Valeriy Romanenko.

Finally, another important nuance for us is from Iran, whose drones have covered a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers to attack Israel.

"Of course, many of them were shot down on approach, but that's not the point. Ukraine needs to further develop its long-range drone program. We have had some successes, such as the Lutyi UAV, but this work needs to be scaled up... The first drones are designed to continue destroying defense enterprises, aircraft, etc. on the territory of the Russian Federation. The second ones are tactical drones for the frontline to destroy various equipment, as the Russians are doing today," the aviation expert emphasized.

Lesson #2. Israel is being helped because it has been helping itself for a long time and systematically

Political scientist Taras Zahorodnyi reminds us that Israel and its residents have been working hard since the 1950s to ensure that they will be in this situation in 2024: "We had to survive the card system, hard work in kibbutzim, because almost all free resources were spent on our own defense..."

As a result, as of 1973, a country the size of the Kyiv region and with a population of 3 million was already producing its own airplanes, tanks, and much more.

Israel has been working systematically to be useful to the US military-industrial complex. Now there is great interdependence there. Therefore, it is more profitable for the United States to support Israel, despite leftist sentiments.

"Israel is being helped because it helps itself. For a long time and systematically. And investments are made in Israel primarily because it can protect these investments. By the way, the first large investments went to Israel only after the war in 1973, after the Yom Kippur War, when it proved that it could guarantee them. "Therefore, only our own military-industrial complex, only our own weapons can provide such support from the allies," assures Mr. Zahorodnyi. "To do this, we need to cut unnecessary expenses, limit unnecessary imports so as not to export currency abroad (for example, importing luxury cars into the country, etc.), cut a lot of bureaucratic waste, tax the 'bankers' who do not want to finance the military-industrial complex, the 'barons' who only export raw materials abroad and do not develop industry. All the resources collected should be used to expand the state order for the private military-industrial complex. Then everyone will help us. Because the strong always get help."

Diplomat Vadym Triukhan insists on the same point: "Israel has shown the unthinkable for Ukraine by shooting down 99% of air targets. This is just fantastic. Of course, this did not happen without the support of our allies. But it was largely thanks to Israeli air defense systems of its own production. And this is an important lesson for us: we should take our own defense industry more seriously and constantly invest in it. We definitely have the scientific brains. And if we have sufficient funding...".

Lesson #3. We must learn from Israel about political communications and how to lobby for our own interests in the world

Political scientist Serhiy Taran was the first to mention the Israeli lobby in Western democracies, particularly in the United States.

"People in Ukraine often like to talk about this. But not everyone wants to understand that the policies toward their citizens abroad in Israel and Ukraine are radically different. For Israel, its citizens or entire communities that are outside the country during a constant war are potential lobbyists with whom it needs to work. In Ukraine, the opposition between those who are in the country and those who have left is becoming a fashionable but meaningless trend for the country's defense," the expert says.

Another lesson is the restrictions on political communications during the war. The US does not communicate with Ukraine the way the US communicates with Israel.

"Promoting your country's interests in the United States requires the constant presence in Washington of a variety of politicians and experts who communicate with American congressmen, directly reach out to the American media and the voters' clubs of individual members of parliament, so that their voters are not too lazy to call their MP and ask whether he or she voted for the bill your country needs. Such work is the norm for many countries experienced in relations with the United States."

Currently, Ukraine has problems with this. But our country should take this lesson into account. After all, Mr. Taran says, the recipes for effective cooperation with American politicians have long been known: "We just need to have the will not to be afraid to apply them. And then NATO aircraft will be closer to shooting down Russian Shaheds over Ukraine."

Lesson 4. Diplomacy has lost, sanctions are not working, the UN should be reformed

"The key lesson for the world is that diplomacy has lost again. Despite Joe Biden's calls, which are completely inappropriate, it is hardly possible to let such a strike go unanswered. Israel will respond. And then Iran will respond again. And so it will go on in a circle. The world has completed the postwar phase, the world has entered World War III. Therefore, everyone, including representatives of the Global South, must finally decide which side they are on: evil or good," Vadym Triukhan emphasizes.

Hence, another key lesson for the world, which has already been discussed many times, but the expert once again mentioned it: it is necessary to restart at least the UN Security Council, and at most the entire UN.

"From a tool for preventing wars, as it was originally conceived after the end of World War II, the UN has now turned into a completely dysfunctional platform for chatter and the exchange of some sarcastic statements," Mr. Triukhan emphasizes.

And this is one of the reasons why diplomacy does not really work.

"Diplomacy has no coercive tool. War, tanks, soldiers, total economic isolation of criminal countries - that's what really starts to matter," the expert added.

While the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders repeat like a mantra the dictum that war with Russia is unacceptable, delaying the introduction of truly comprehensive sanctions against Russia and Iran, the Kremlin is working tirelessly, non-stop, to implement several tasks

- to destroy the unity of the democratic world;

- to multiply the production of ammunition;

- formation of "friendly" political regimes around the world, including among the EU and NATO member states;

- changing public sentiment around the world in its favor.

"The world is now reaping the benefits of its short-sighted and cowardly policy towards aggressors. Sanctions do not work, and no real coercive tools have been applied. I hope that the next attack on Israel will be a lesson, pushing the West to take more decisive action against the "axis of evil" that Russia, Iran, Syria and North Korea have already constructed and from which China is already half a step away," the diplomat emphasized.

THE CONSEQUENCE: WHAT THE DIRECT IRANIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT HAS SHOWN

According to political scientist Oleh Posternak, this situation has revealed one significant detail: in global geopolitics, there is a noticeable search for boundaries that would prevent the transformation of contradictions into a global war.

"Each side calculates the behavior of the other and conducts a controlled confrontation, when military activities are quite predictable and understandable. Therefore, this conflict is very similar to a controlled game, a "contractual match" in which the United States is making sure that it does not escalate into a global war, restraining Israel from a disproportionate response, and involving European and Arab allies.

"Iran, on the other hand, is acting cautiously, realizing that the West is actually "allowing" it to react in a certain way, but in such a way that the "red line" is not crossed and the population and military infrastructure of Israel are not directly harmed," the political scientist added.

However, the conflict differs from previous ones, in which Iran acted indirectly through proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Yemeni Houthis. In this case, Iran directly fired on Israel, which accelerated the dismantling of the previous model of conflict "coexistence" of the warring forces in the Middle East and made it completely new.

"At the same time, the United States and its allies, out of tactical caution, are actually agreeing to a new geopolitical reality, which can be perceived by Iran, China, Russia and North Korea as another fact of the West's weakening on a global scale. This raises many questions about the vague prospect of easing tensions in the region, as Israel is actually a nuclear power and Iran is a few steps away from obtaining nuclear weapons," emphasizes Oleh Posternak.

POSITIVE CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS FOR UKRAINE

The situation with the shelling of Israel may not end badly - it may push the US House of Representatives to vote for the long-suffering aid package for Ukraine, as there is now room for compromise. After all, there used to be congressmen in the House who wanted to vote for the Ukraine package but had doubts about the Israel package, and vice versa, who were ready to vote for Israel but were still thinking about helping Ukraine. Now there is practically no such barrier. This is one, but not the only conclusion.

"It can be assumed that finally, overseas, the issue of making a decision on assistance to Israel and Ukraine will move forward. It is not for nothing that even on Sunday, which is not very typical for the Biden administration, relevant telephone conversations were held, in particular with Mike Johnson, after which there was cautious optimism that this issue would be resolved in the coming days. And according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a consensus was allegedly reached on this issue," says Vadym Triukhan.

"Israel is a de jure major ally of the United States among non-NATO countries. Israel was one of the first countries to receive this status. Now about 18 countries have this status. However, Washington has never had such close, multifaceted, and trusting relations with anyone as it has with Tel Aviv. Therefore, I do not think that they will dare to pass a bill that would grant Israel a loan. Most likely, it will be a question of non-repayable aid. And from this perspective, the question of Ukraine arises: if the usual scheme is voted for Israel, it will be very difficult to explain to the public why our country is receiving aid on credit. So, in my opinion, there are greater chances that a non-repayable aid scheme will be voted for both Israel and Ukraine. And, accordingly, for Taiwan," the diplomat believes.

Although, there may still be options. And the reason for this is Trump.

"In fact, over the past six months, Trump has been demonstrating that there is no president in the White House, that he is the master of the situation. That is, whatever position he takes is implemented by Congress. That's what the Republican majority in the lower house means, and that's what the presence of a "golden share" in the form of a small group of Trumpist congressmen means. Therefore, it is worth preparing for this option: perhaps some part of the aid for Ukraine will be "repayable, such as macro-financial assistance," Vadym Triukhan points out.

In general... He is confident that this issue will be resolved in the coming days.

"No one in modern American history could become president if they did not support Israel. Therefore, Trump, who has driven the situation into a dead end, is now on the ropes, and he will have to make some painful decision for himself," the expert emphasized.

And this is Oleh Posternak: "In the United States, the warring parties will traditionally try to use the Iranian-Israeli conflict for the purposes of favorable electoral positioning. However, there is a high risk that the White House's behavior during the conflict will be perceived as a sign of weakness and a reduction in American influence. Therefore, in the context of such political turmoil, a joint aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan could be an adequate and acceptable response of US government institutions to the challenge to American influence. Although it should be understood that part of the Trumpist electorate is under isolationist illusions."

Therefore, the political scientist also believes that Trump will want to save face by explaining why the Republicans voted to help Ukraine: "If part of the Ukrainian aid is converted into a loan or reduced, it may look like a compromise for the Republicans and their voters, which is less favorable for Ukraine, but will be at least something in the face of risky delays and lost time."

Another important conclusion for Ukraine after the attack on Israel is that Iran will definitely not sell its ballistic missiles to Russia, at least for some time. And in general, Tehran's support for Moscow in the war against our country will decline, because it will have no time for that.

"Military-technical cooperation between Iran and Russia in the event of a protracted remote war could be significantly reduced. Iran will need a constant resource for terrorizing Israel. And the most popular and cheapest means of all are kamikaze drones. As the Shahed raid and the missile strike on the night of April 14 showed, the number of weapons used was insufficient to break through Israel's air defense, and therefore the potential for a strike, not to mention the tactics, must be different. Iran simply cannot avoid responding to Israeli strikes, and Israel to Iranian ones, and the Islamic Republic will focus its military-industrial complex on these needs. Of course, this will reduce or even minimize the supply of kamikaze drones to Russia, which, in turn, will reduce the intensity and scale of attacks on Ukraine," said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military observer at the Information Resistance group.

However, there is a flip side to this...

"As for Iranian ballistic missiles, which, according to Western media, have not demonstrated their best performance, we should focus on Russia's ballistic missiles, which it is modernizing and improving. And Russia will also take into account the unsuccessful experience of Iranian missiles to further improve its weapons. Therefore, it is fundamentally and extremely important for Russia to cut off the import of Western components," Oleh Posternak summarized.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv

3. Raw From an Election Drubbing, South Korea’s Unpopular President Says Sorry

Raw From an Election Drubbing, South Korea’s Unpopular President Says Sorry

Ruling conservatives got beaten badly in legislative elections seen as referendum on leader Yoon Suk Yeol

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/raw-from-an-election-drubbing-south-koreas-unpopular-president-says-sorry-160fdf4d?mod=Searchresults_pos5&page=1

By Dasl Yoon

April 16, 2024 10:17 am ET

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks on television. PHOTO: KIM JAE-HWAN/SOPA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS

SEOUL—Days after his party’s drubbing in legislative elections, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to be more flexible, humble and proactive.

What he didn’t do during his nationally televised address Tuesday—breaking his silence for the first time since last week’s election—was apologize directly. Instead, that contrition came hours later off-camera.

“I am sorry for failing to properly look into and uphold the will of the people,” he said at a Tuesday cabinet meeting.

The opposition Democratic Party expanded its control of the country’s National Assembly in the election, winning 175 seats. Yoon’s People Power Party claimed 108.

The election was seen as a referendum on the 63-year-old Yoon, who has struggled with low approval ratings throughout his term. A Monday poll showed his approval had sunk to a six-month low of 32.6%. The election result will make him the first president since South Korea shed military rule in the late 1980s who will have to contend with an opposition-controlled parliament for an entire term in office.

Last week’s parliamentary election in South Korea saw the opposition expand its control. PHOTO: CHUNG SUNG-JUN/GETTY IMAGES

Yoon leaned on his outsider status and prosecutorial record to win the country’s highest office, promising justice and an even playing field. But, two years into his term, he appears to be out of touch and unable to compromise or communicate with the public, some voters and political analysts say.

“The people have vetoed Yoon’s political style,” said Park Sung-min, the head of the political consulting agency MIN Consulting in Seoul, adding that he didn’t see any indication in Yoon’s Tuesday address that he planned to change.

Yoon has worked closely with the U.S. and taken a more confrontational stance toward North Korea. He has also given priority to improved ties with Japan, the U.S.’s other key ally in the region. The two countries have long had a contentious relationship stemming from Japan’s colonization of the Korean Peninsula through World War II.

But Yoon has struggled to maintain support domestically. In the final weeks before the April 10 vote, he was weighed down by a number of issues, political analysts said. South Korea is facing a weekslong doctors’ strike that has curbed healthcare access and upset the public. As officials called for medical leaders to sit down for talks, Yoon signaled his administration’s stance wouldn’t budge. The two sides have failed to reach a breakthrough.

The rising cost of living in South Korea has also been a political liability for Yoon with some voters. The opposition seized on a trip by Yoon to a local supermarket last month, with food prices at multidecade highs. Yoon marveled at the “reasonable” price of green onions that cost 875 won, or roughly 60 cents, a bunch. It turned out that price was about one-fourth of the typical market rate, fueling suspicions of a staged act.

Yoon checking the price of a bunch of green onions at a supermarket in Seoul last month. PHOTO: YONHAP/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Opposition party leaders hoisted helmets adorned with stalks of green onions. People at rallies held signs that said, “875 won: The ‘reasonable’ amount for the president’s monthly salary.” Yoon’s office later said the cost of the onions reflected the government’s efforts to stabilize prices.

“Most politicians are out of touch, but the green onion incident felt too much like a representation of how little the president cares about rising living costs,” said Lee So-hyun, a homemaker in Seoul.

First lady Kim Keon-hee has also drawn some unwanted attention to the president. Yoon had to respond after his wife was shown on a video receiving a $2,200 Dior handbag. In a televised interview in February, Yoon said it was “regrettable” that his wife had accepted the bag. The president has also vetoed attempts by the opposition to investigate Kim over alleged involvement in manipulating stock prices.

“As a former prosecutor, I used to view Yoon as a leader who would pursue justice. But it doesn’t seem to be the case when it comes to people that are on his side,” said Lee Joon-seo, a 36-year-old office worker.

A woman casting her ballot at a polling station in a Seoul school’s baseball training center last week. PHOTO: JUNG YEON-JE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Yoon has yet to sit down for a one-on-one meeting with opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who fought a bitter race with him in the last presidential election before losing by a razor-thin margin.

Yoon didn’t enjoy broad public support as he took office, with roughly two-fifths of the country disapproving of him from the outset. It took just two months for his approval rating to dip below 40%.

That compared with nearly 2½ years for his left-leaning predecessor, Moon Jae-in. The president before Moon, conservative Park Geun-hye, who later was ousted due to a corruption scandal, didn’t become that unpopular for nearly two years.

The Yoon administration often hasn’t shown a willingness to cooperate with the opposition and hasn’t always communicated the rationales behind its policies well to the public, said Choi Jin, the head of the Institute of Presidential Leadership, a private research firm in Seoul.

“The closed leadership and lack of progress on improving livelihoods inevitably led to people turning their backs on Yoon,” he said.

Yoon took office in 2022. PHOTO: JEON HEON-KYUN/PRESS POOL/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com

Appeared in the April 17, 2024, print edition as 'South Korean President Sorry for Vote Loss'.

4. The desperate alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea

Seems like many media outlets are synchronizing their message against the axis of evil, dictators, totalitarianism, authoritarians. I might consider this an active information and influence activities effort by someone who wants the world to get this message.

But if this is driven naturally and organically based on world events and journalists and authors and analysts are coming to these conclusions independently that would be a good thing and perhaps a lesson that we should not try so hard with information operations!

The desperate alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/alignment-russia-china-iran-north-korea/

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April 17, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. EDT

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Ukrainian air defense intercepts a Shahed drone midair in a Russia aerial attack on Kyiv on May 30. (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP)

CORRECTION

A previous version of this article incorrectly said that Vladimir Putin traveled to North Korea to meet Kim Jong Un. Kim went to Russia for the meeting. The article has been corrected.

It is increasingly common in Washington to view the various conflicts around the world as part of one big narrative. That is hardly without reason. As The Washington Post reported this week, U.S. officials say Iran has bolstered its defenses against a potential retaliatory strike by Israel with the purchase of Russian weapons, part of a strategic alliance forged by Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the extensive use of Iranian-manufactured drones there.

Moscow hasn’t just been looking to Tehran for a mutually beneficial relationship. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korea’s reclusive leader, Kim Jong Un, to cement a deal that gave Russian troops much-needed ammunition and other war materials in exchange for more advanced technology coveted by Pyongyang.

But the most significant partner by far in this convergence is China, which provided a trade lifeline for Russia amid Western sanctions. U.S. officials told the Associated Press last week that much of this support goes beyond regular business, however, with China surging exports of technology that Russia can use to produce missiles, tanks and planes — making up for both battlefield losses and export controls by the United States and its allies.

Iran, Russia, North Korea and China are part of a far broader group of nations and movements — among their ranks include the relatively small but influential groups like Hamas and the Houthis — that seem to be opposed to the West. Some Western officials, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have repeatedly suggested these countries mark a new “axis of evil” — a reference to a phrase infamously used by President George W. Bush at the start of the war on terror.

The man who coined that phrase apparently sees this new alliance as even broader. “The world faces a global alignment of dictators, thugs and aggressors, from Tehran to Moscow to Beijing to Palm Beach,” David Frum, the former White House speechwriter, said on X this week after Iran’s failed attack on Israel — the last item on his list, a reference to Florida man and former president Donald Trump.

It’s flawed to view this as simply an “axis of evil 2.0,” however. That’s partly because the original idea was a stretch at best. Two of the three countries in the original “axis,” Iran and Iraq, were helmed by diametrically opposed ideologies at that point — the former led by a Shiite theocracy, the other a Pan-Arab nationalism led by Sunnis — who had not long before fought a bloody, brutal war. The final nation, the totalitarian socialist state North Korea, was literally and figuratively half a world away.

The new alignment is similarly misaligned. Russia’s state capitalist society may ally itself with domestic religious forces like the powerful Russian Orthodox Church, but it has little overlap with the Islamic doctrine espoused by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or its sectarian Shiite allies. While China and North Korea both espouse socialist forms of government, the official rhetoric and practical implementation of these ideologies in the two nations is significantly different. Even in recent history, they have found themselves at points of tension.

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This means that unlike the Cold War, where ideology at least nominally bound the Communist bloc against the West, what we have now is better understood as a “marriage of convenience” between a number of disparate nations.

That doesn’t mean it will end in divorce, however. What’s driving these agreements is not just convenience, but also desperation. Sanctions and export controls have pushed Russia — which once enjoyed booming trade with Europe and the United States despite tensions — to turn to China, even if the trade relationship is clearly unfavorable. While none of the nations can stand up to America’s military might, they all have individual strengths that the others hope to learn from.

To put it another way: If Putin wants to keep fighting his war in Ukraine and survive punishing economic isolation from the Western-led global economic order, he has little option but to turn east to China. If China views the future of the global order as a great power battle between itself and the United States, it needs all of the help it can muster — and Russia’s rich natural resources and some of its military technology will be of big aid here.

Desperation can drive dangerous situations. Two of the four in this alignment are undeniably powerful nations, while the two smaller nations — Iran and North Korea — have considerable capabilities of their own, most notably including Tehran’s network of aligned movements in the Middle East.

Three of the four are nuclear-armed; Iran is not far off. As permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, China and Russia both played constructive roles in setting norms before, including on arms control measures for both Iran and North Korea. Without them, those efforts are foundering.

At the same time, the West faces its own misalignment. The United States is painfully divided internally on Russia for domestic political reasons, while Trump — seeking a return to office next year — has repeatedly suggested he seeks to pull out of the NATO military alliance. The former president and some of his supporters favor a brokered end to the war in Ukraine that would break the Russia-China alliance, though analysts say this would do little to dent a relationship cemented by mutual interests.

“Any hopes of peeling them away from each other are nothing more than wishful thinking,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote recently.

U.S. allies in Europe, for obvious historical reasons, have long taken the threat of Russia seriously but have only recently begun to align with China hawks in Washington. But even these hawks are divided among themselves about how hard to fight the threat of a rising China. “If Beijing judges we are pursuing total victory over it, what is the downside to going all the way in its fight with us?” Elbridge Colby, a former Defense Department official, wrote on X this weekend, responding to a Foreign Affairs article by former Trump White House official Matt Pottinger and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) that called for a “long term victory” over China.

The United States was able to rally an impressive alliance that included traditional allies like Britain as well as Gulf states to help defend Israel from Iranian assault this weekend. But the war in Gaza not only continues to create a toxic divide within these allies, but also breeds animosity among the Global South that both sides would seek to court.

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By Adam Taylor

Adam Taylor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. Originally from London, he studied at the University of Manchester and Columbia University. Twitter

5. Largest joint airpower drills over Korean Peninsula include 25 aircraft types

ROk and US (and coalition) airpower will bring devastating death and destruction to the north. One of the sustained propaganda themes in the north is how US airpower (Air Force, Naval and Marine) destroyed all the infrastructure and flattened north Korea from 1950-1953. Of all the military capabilities it is air power that the regime fears the most (of course Kim fears the Korean people in the north even more which is why he has to externalize hsi threats to justify the sacrifices he demands of the people which of course causes their immense suffering). But I am sure this demonstration is making Kim quake in his boots.

Largest joint airpower drills over Korean Peninsula include 25 aircraft types

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · April 16, 2024

A South Korean air force F-15K Slam Eagle arrives for the Korea Flying Training exercise at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, April 12, 2024. (Samuel Earick/U.S. Air Force)

CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — The United States and South Korea are carrying out their largest, annual aerial training to “deter, defend and defeat” enemies in and around the Korean Peninsula, according to an Air Force news release.

The 7th Air Force at Kunsan Air Base, about 115 miles south of Seoul, is coordinating the 15-day exercise, dubbed Korea Flying Training, which kicked off Friday.

The release described the training as “defensive in nature” and did not mention North Korea, which regularly condemns joint military drills between the United States and the South.

President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol agreed to “expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises” in and around the Korean Peninsula due to the North’s nuclear and missile threats, according to a joint statement on May 21, 2022.

Korea Flying Training began less than two weeks after North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile. The solid-fueled weapon, launched April 2 from the Pyongyang area, flew roughly 370 miles before splashing down in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, according to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The missile was equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of traveling more than 3,800 mph, the communist regime’s Korean Central News Agency reported the next day.

Aircraft from the South Korean air force arrive for the Korea Flying Training exercise at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, April 12, 2024. (Samuel Earick/U.S. Air Force)

Korea Flying Training is focusing on integrating fifth-generation aircraft, including the F-35 Lightning II, with other U.S. and South Korean jets during the drill, the Air Force release said. Other scenarios include combat search and rescue, precision strikes, airborne operations and defending against aerial and ground-based threats.

About 25 types of aircraft from both air forces, the U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Special Operations Command are scheduled to participate in the exercise, the release said. These include the F-35B, F-16 Fighting Falcon, A-10 Thunderbolt II, MQ-9 Reaper and C-130J Super Hercules.

F-35As, F-15K Slam Eagles, C-130 Hercules and KC-330 Cygnus from South Korea are also participating, according to the release.

The 7th Air Force did not immediately respond to an email Tuesday requesting the number of aircraft used and whether munitions will be dropped while training.

Joint military training by the two allies is carried out year-round on land, air and sea in and around the peninsula.

More than 130 U.S., South Korean and Australian aircraft conducted a five-day airpower demonstration dubbed Vigilant Defense on Oct. 23, the South’s military said at the time.

Eleven months earlier, roughly 240 U.S. and South Korean aircraft flew about 1,600 sorties during another airpower exercise called Vigilant Storm.

Col. Charles Cameron, 7th Air Force’s director of operations and plans, described Korea Flying Training as “the most realistic opportunity for our forces.”

“KFT is a critical training event due to the sheer size of the exercise, the amount of aircraft and people involved from across the joint and allied forces, and the complexity of the training,” he said in the release.

David Choi

David Choi is based in South Korea and reports on the U.S. military and foreign policy. He served in the U.S. Army and California Army National Guard. He graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · April 16, 2024

6. Korean War hero Ralph Puckett to lie in honor at US Capitol

It is great to see him honored this way.

Korean War hero Ralph Puckett to lie in honor at US Capitol

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · April 16, 2024

Korean War hero Ralph Puckett Jr. will lie in honor at the U.S. Capitol later this month in recognition of his valor and the sacrifice of all troops who served in the conflict, House and Senate leaders announced on Tuesday.

In a statement, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said that Puckett, a retired Army colonel, will be given the rare honor on April 29.

“The extraordinary valor of Col. Ralph Puckett, Jr. represents the best of the 1.7 million Americans who left home to fight for freedom in the Korean War,” they said in a joint statement. “He demonstrated tireless sacrifice for our country and his fellow rangers and is an exceptional model for service members and civilians alike.”

Puckett, 97, was the last living Medal of Honor recipient from the Korean War. He received the honor in 2021, more than 70 years after his heroism overseas. He died earlier this month.

The last surviving Medal of Honor recipient of the Korean War has died

Ralph Puckett Jr., the last living National Medal of Honor recipient from the Korean War, died in his sleep on Monday.

At that time, he was a young lieutenant in 1950 who led 51 Army Rangers and nine Korean soldiers across frozen rice paddies to seize a key hill overlooking the Ch’ongch’on River. Army officials said Puckett repeatedly exposed himself to enemy fire over nearly a day of fighting, first to commandeer a tank to provide cover for his men, then several more times to draw fire away from the positions they were trying to defend.

Puckett was wounded several times by shrapnel and small arms fire. At one point, he ordered his men to leave him behind and retreat to a safer area. They managed to evacuate him before American artillery fire destroyed their overrun positions on the hill.

In addition to the military’s highest honor, Puckett earned a Distinguished Service Cross for actions during the Vietnam War and two Silver Stars. He served for 22 years.

Only six other Americans have laid in honor in the Capitol Rotunda. The last was Hershel “Woody” Williams, the last surviving World War II Medal of Honor recipient, after his death in summer 2022. Thirty-four others have lain in state there.

Capitol officials have not yet announced any plans for public visitation for the event.

About Leo Shane III

Leo covers Congress, Veterans Affairs and the White House for Military Times. He has covered Washington, D.C. since 2004, focusing on military personnel and veterans policies. His work has earned numerous honors, including a 2009 Polk award, a 2010 National Headliner Award, the IAVA Leadership in Journalism award and the VFW News Media award.

7. How to monitor North Korean nuclear violations after Russia’s UN veto

Excerpts:

With U.N. action hindered, the United States should take the lead in creating a coalition of likeminded nations to monitor compliance with U.N. resolutions and international law, and then target all entities violating those authorities.

In the past, U.S. officials privately met with foreign government, banking and business officials to provide evidence of violations occurring in those countries or entities. Such efforts should be renewed and expanded.

While the U.S. has the greatest intelligence resources as well as the most encompassing financial system, other nations will need to increase their efforts to coordinate and take punitive action against North Korea, including its growing cybercrimes, which the regime is increasingly using to evade sanctions and fund its military programs.

How to monitor North Korean nuclear violations after Russia’s UN veto

Defense News · by Bruce Klingner · April 16, 2024

For 14 years, a U.N. panel of experts documented evidence of North Korea’s nuclear violations and monitored U.N. member states’ enforcement of sanctions. Now, thanks to Russia’s veto of the annual reauthorization of that panel, this window into Pyongyang’s activity has been closed.

Russia’s action eliminates an important means to induce international action against North Korea’s repeated transgressions. In response, the U.S. must enforce its laws more diligently and lead an international coalition to comprehensively target Pyongyang and its accomplices.

Beginning in 2006, the U.N. Security Council passed 11 resolutions condemning North Korea for its nuclear and missile activity, and imposed sanctions for the regime’s violations of previous resolutions. These resolutions not only preclude any North Korean nuclear tests or ballistic missile launches, but require Pyongyang to abandon its weapons of mass destruction programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner.

Moscow and Beijing allowed incrementally stronger resolutions after North Korea’s repeated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, though rejecting stronger text and sanctions proposed by the United States and its allies. Russia and China would implement the new sanctions for a few months before again turning a blind eye to violations occurring on their soil or surrounding waters.

The panel of experts was established in 2009 by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874 as an investigatory body of eight experts that produced biannual reports with extensive data and photographs identifying violations by North Korea and other entities. The reports also highlighted shortcomings in enforcement of required sanctions and made recommendations that the U.N. or member states should undertake to improve the implementation of measures.

During the panel’s tenure, Russia and China habitually watered down or rejected evidence of North Korean violations to minimize punitive measures against Pyongyang. In recent years, Russia and China became more obstructionist on the U.N. Security Council and more blatantly shielded Pyongyang from any additional resolutions or sanctions.

Moscow and Beijing vetoed all proposals for additional resolutions and new sanctions after North Korea’s ICBM launches, including the likely multi-warhead Hwasong-17 and solid-fueled Hwasong-18. Russia and China have also proposed adding “sunset” clauses to allow existing sanctions against North Korea to expire if they are not unanimously renewed by the U.N. Security Council.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a resurgence of ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, which had largely languished after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In July 2022, North Korea supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine by diplomatically recognizing the “independence” of the Russian-backed separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s September 2023 trip to Russia and summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was a breakthrough in bilateral relations and confirmed the growing military and diplomatic entente between the two countries.

During the past two years, North Korea provided an estimated 10,000 containers, with potentially over 2 million rounds of artillery ammunition, along with dozens of missiles to Russia, all in violation of U.N. resolutions. Moscow reportedly used the North Korean munitions and weapons in attacks in Ukraine.

It remains unknown what North Korea received in return for its military largesse to Russia. Moscow’s veto of the panel of experts may be part of a quid pro quo, in addition to financial and economic benefits. Last year, Kim visited several Russian military factories and bases, raising concerns that Moscow may provide high-tech military technology to Pyongyang.

Disbanding the panel of experts makes it harder to monitor North Korea, but not impossible. The United States and its partners have extensive authorities under existing U.N. resolutions and international law to target violators. Regrettably, successive U.S. administrations have refrained from fully enforcing U.S. laws, particularly against Chinese banks and businesses aiding North Korea and committing money laundering crimes in the U.S. financial system.

The U.S. and South Korea recently announced the creation of the bilateral Enhanced Disruption Task Force to disrupt North Korea’s illicit financing of its nuclear and missile programs and importing of fuel supplies in excess of U.N.-mandated limits. The long-overdue effort hopefully signals an intent to more vigorously target entities supporting North Korea’s banned nuclear and missile programs.

With U.N. action hindered, the United States should take the lead in creating a coalition of likeminded nations to monitor compliance with U.N. resolutions and international law, and then target all entities violating those authorities.

In the past, U.S. officials privately met with foreign government, banking and business officials to provide evidence of violations occurring in those countries or entities. Such efforts should be renewed and expanded.

While the U.S. has the greatest intelligence resources as well as the most encompassing financial system, other nations will need to increase their efforts to coordinate and take punitive action against North Korea, including its growing cybercrimes, which the regime is increasingly using to evade sanctions and fund its military programs.

Bruce Klingner is a senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation think tank. He previously served with the CIA and U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. From 1996 to 2001, he was the CIA’s deputy division chief for Korea.

8. China’s Hands Are Tied Against Tangle of US Alliances

I do not like the characterization as a" latticework." A lattice is weak. I think a web is a better description since it is so much stronger. It is stronger than the old Hub an dSpoke description. We should be characterizing our alliance and partnerships as a web=, even a silk web. Since China claims silk we should appropriate the and use the silk web metaphor to describe our alliances that are stronger than anything China can use to counter it.

China’s Hands Are Tied Against Tangle of US Alliances

Beijing has few good ways to fight back against the multitude of new security partnerships the US is forging in the region.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-16/china-can-t-fight-back-against-new-us-alliances-in-asia?sref=hhjZtX76

April 16, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

By Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei is professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and author of "The Sentinel State: Surveillance and the Survival of Dictatorship in China."

With last week’s trilateral summit between the leaders of the US, Japan, and the Philippines, China faces an ever-tightening cordon of alliances around its periphery. Chinese officials rail against this US-led network as an unwelcome and destabilizing case of “bloc politics.” In reality, there’s not much else they can do.

Developing a “latticework” of partnerships around the Indo-Pacific — through arrangements such as the US-Japan-Philippines relationship, a similar trilateral with Japan and South Korea; the AUKUS alliance with Australia and the UK; and the Quad grouping with Japan, India, and Australia — is a central pillar of US President Joe Biden’s strategy for containing China. Interlocking defense ties between all those nations greatly strengthen the US ability to deter Chinese aggression, especially toward Taiwan, and increase America’s chances of victory if a conflict does break out.

In many ways, Beijing has only itself to blame for Biden’s success. In the last decade, its in-your-face approach to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines has thoroughly alienated nations that might otherwise have stayed on the sidelines of the Sino-American rivalry.

China now finds itself boxed in. Its options for countering the US strategy are all unappealing and, more importantly, unlikely to succeed.

One obvious temptation would be to retaliate. China could more aggressively confront Japanese vessels patrolling near contested islands known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, or it could block the Philippines from supplying its marines on a rusting warship beached on Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef which both countries claim. China could also seek to exert economic pressure on offending countries, erecting new import barriers or choking off exports of critical minerals.

Such actions, however, would likely hurt China more than its intended targets. The Sino-Japanese economic relationship, already strained by rising bilateral tensions, could deteriorate faster and further. After declaring an “ironclad” security commitment to the Philippines, Biden might order US naval vessels into the waters around the Second Thomas Shoal, forcing Chinese President Xi Jinping to decide whether he is prepared to escalate.

Alternatively, Xi could try to make nice with China’s neighbors, scaling back naval confrontations (Chinese coast guard ships have entered waters around the contested Japanese islands every day since mid-December last year) and seeking to offer economic carrots instead of sticks. China’s ailing economy has fewer of those in its arsenal than before, though, and even a tactical withdrawal now could lead to a loss of face. Worse, it would probably come too late: The security worries that have led countries such as Japan and the Philippines into the arms of the US are by now deeply ingrained.

Other moves all carry high risks. Providing North Korea more support to keep Japan and South Korea off-balance could instead lead them to deepen their partnership. Moreover, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would likely pocket the favor but keep his distance from Xi, who is not exactly a fan of the unpredictable young dictator. Having just boosted his own ties with Kim, too, Russian President Vladimir Putin may fear China is trying to undercut his influence.

Trying to distract the US by supporting its adversaries in the Middle East could backfire, too. Economically, a wider war in the region could hurt China just as much as the US if trade and oil shipments are disrupted. Providing Iran with weapons would fray Chinese ties with its other regional partners such as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

The US would almost certainly retaliate, either by imposing more economic sanctions on China or by granting more military and diplomatic support to Taiwan. And, unless the US gets sucked into another land war in the Middle East — a quagmire Biden obviously wants to avoid — bipartisan pressure to stay focused on China will not lessen.

This leaves Beijing only one sensible option: to play for time. Rather than trying to break the new bonds the Biden administration has forged, China would be wiser to see whether internal tensions weaken them naturally.

Fully realizing the potential of these partnerships will require sacrifices on all sides — from increased defense spending and tighter cyber-security from Japan to greater willingness from the Pentagon to share technology and intelligence with its new partners — which are far from guaranteed. Potential changes of administration in Seoul, Manila, and Washington could quickly erode support for deeper ties. A second Donald Trump administration might well be more interested in bullying allies than wooing them.

China has created many of its own problems in the region. Its best bet now may be to hope the US does the same.

Beyond the Ballot: Analysis and Implications of the South Korean General Election in 2024

BY: J. JAMES KIM
APRIL 16, 2024

https://www.38north.org/2024/04/beyond-the-ballot-analysis-and-implications-of-the-south-korean-general-election-in-2024/

The South Korean parliamentary election was everything it was hyped up to be, except for the result. With the conservative ruling party adding just five seats, the People Power Party (PPP) fell short of their desired 110+ seats, which would have been a face-saving loss for the leadership. By securing just 90 single-member district seats and 18 semi-proportional representation seats, the ruling party barely prevented the opposition front from achieving a veto-proof supermajority. For this reason, the result was interpreted as a disappointing one for the ruling party. However, one bright spot in this election was the high turnout, which was aided by a very competitive race and the entry of a new third party led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk. Although the result portends a difficult road ahead for the president and the conservatives, the opposition parties’ ability to constrain the administration will depend on how well they can work together in the coming months.

What Happened?

Voter participation was high, with early turnout at 31.3 percent and total turnout at 67 percent, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the election in 2020 (Figure 1). Initial exit poll results projected a landslide victory for the Democratic Party (DP), which would have allowed them to achieve a veto-proof majority (200 seats), but this result never materialized. What this suggests is that the early votes, which were not reflected in the exit poll, are likely to have favored the conservatives more so than the progressives, contrary to mainstream media analysis.

In the end, however, the result was as predicted. The ruling party gained a few seats but not enough to tip the balance of the legislative process in their favor (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

Figure 1. Voter Turnout. (Source: National Election Commission of the Republic of Korea [NEC])

Figure 2. Results of the 21st and 22nd General Election. (Source: NEC)

Figure 3. Number of Seats Gained and Lost in the 22nd General Election by Party and Region. (Source: NEC)

Twenty-four of the 254 single-member district races were nailbiters, with a margin of victory being less than three percentage points. Although the outcome was not a complete loss for the PPP, the conservatives’ inability to prevent the opposition coalition from attaining a filibuster-proof supermajority (i.e., greater than 180 seats) was interpreted as a failure. At the end of the day, the interim PPP leader, Han Dong-hoon, had to admit defeat and resign from his post, as did most of the key personnel in the presidential office except for the national security team.

One of the newly formed opposition parties, the National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), promptly moved to follow through on their campaign promise by demanding the investigation of the First Lady in a press conference staged in front of the Supreme Prosecutor’s Office building the day after the election.

Why Did It Happen?

Established wisdom in election studies suggests that voter participation depends on three factors: 1) the likelihood of an individual vote being pivotal; 2) stakes in the election outcome; and 3) costs of voting.[1] The high turnout appeared to be the result of these three conditions in this election.

Figure 4. Party Support. (Unit: Percent; source: NEC)

First, the polls leading up to the election showed neither of the two major parties having a clear advantage (Figure 4). Although the conservatives appeared to be slightly ahead, the marginal difference was relatively small, and a significant number of independent or undecided voters meant that the election was very difficult to predict. In short, the high uncertainty of outcome translated into a higher probability that an individual vote would play a more decisive role in the result.

Figure 5. Demographic Breakdown of Party Support, March 26-28, 2024. (Unit: Percent; source: Gallup Korea)

Higher turnout was also aided by the introduction of new parties, such as the RKP, which was able to energize undecided voters. In fact, when we compare the characteristics of the support for the RKP, we can see disproportionate support among individuals in their 40s (17 percent) and 50s (23 percent) and among those who self-identified as progressive (21 percent) or moderate (15 percent) (Figure 5). Incidentally, these are also the groups that tended to support the DP more so than the PPP. Given the higher early voting turnout in Jeolla Province and the result, which seems to suggest that many moderate votes are likely to have gone toward the RKP (see below), the introduction of third parties appears to have energized the undecided voters who were not entirely satisfied with the establishment choices.

Figure 6. Keywords from Stump Speech, March 28-April 8, 2024. (Unit: Frequency; source: Donga Ilbo)

With respect to the stakes, the leaders of the two major parties sought to frame this election around the issue of passing judgment on each other’s party leadership (Figure 6). Although the PPP presented concrete policy platforms that hinged on measures such as elimination of capital gains tax, valuing up equities in the stock market, and relocating the parliament from Yeouido to Sejong City, among others, none of these substantive policy issues really became the focal point of this election. Instead, both parties resorted to negative campaigning. As the content analysis of the stump speech by the leaders of the two major parties shows (Figure 6), the progressives focused on the president’s leadership style and the economy. The conservatives focused on individuals in the Democratic Party marred by different types of scandals. The events leading up to the election appear to have reinforced both side’s arguments, but this framing did not move the needle in either party’s favor.

Figure 7. Comparison of Party Support and PR Votes. (Source: NEC and Gallup Korea)

One especially striking result from this election was the strong correlation between the overall support for the major parties and the share of votes that each party received. If we stack the independent/undecided support with the support for RKP at the end of March, the partisan support for each party does a remarkably good job of predicting the PR vote for each party (Figure 7). The election dynamic at the district level is likely to differ depending on the candidate and the distribution of voter characteristics. Nonetheless, the results suggest that the framing in this election did little to move the needle in either direction, and the third party may have absorbed a sizable number of undecided votes.

What Now?

Basically, this election is interpreted as a referendum on the current administration. Depending on how well the opposition parties can work together to keep President Yoon’s agenda in check, the administration’s ability to push forward with its reform agenda is likely to be hampered.

This does not necessarily mean President Yoon will be a “dead duck” for the remainder of his term. President Yoon has had some success passing important legislation through the National Assembly over the past year when he had far fewer ruling party votes on the chamber floor. Moreover, it is yet unclear how close the cooperation between DP and RKP will be in the days ahead. Although the two parties have agreed to coordinate their effort in the next Assembly, there were moments when the DP leadership became weary of the RKP and its leader, former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk. Finally, there is the question of legal woes hanging over the heads of both leaders of the DP and RKP, Mr. Lee Jae-myung and Mr. Cho. Both men are being tried for fraud and corruption. The opposition dynamic can change depending on the outcome of these cases.

Whoever may be in charge, President Yoon will have to figure out a way to work with the opposition if he wishes to pass more of his policy agenda. If not, there is a danger that he will not be able to achieve much in the next three years. Some observers argue that he may double down and push forward with his agenda unilaterally using vetoes and presidential orders. In this case, Yoon is likely to meet strong resistance from the opposition and Korean interbranch relations are likely to become more contentious.

That said, President Yoon’s foreign policy orientation is not likely to change much, given that the executive retains the power to set the agenda on most of these matters in presidential systems. However, the opposition can constrain the president’s foreign policy agenda through legislative intervention via ratification or auxiliary implementing legislation. The administration’s credibility and bargaining leverage on the international stage could be weakened if it consistently fails to deliver on the promises it makes with its counterpart due to domestic political constraints.

Geopolitical and geoeconomic trends may also impact domestic political dynamics. With deepening US-China competition, the upcoming US election and increased coordination between North Korea and Russia, national security and foreign policy challenges could become especially acute, if not significantly problematic, for South Korea until the next presidential election three years from now. At some point, however, partisan differences are more likely to be set aside when opposing political factions realize they are faced with an overwhelming national security or foreign policy challenge. Hopefully the different parties in Korean politics will come to this realization before it’s too late.

[1]
Aaron Edlin, Andrew Gelman and Noah Kaplan, “Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and How People Vote to Improve the Well-Being of Others,” Rationality and Society 19, no. 3 (2007): 292-314.

10. North Korea is buying Chinese surveillance cameras in a push to tighten control, report says

Control, control, control. The key to regime survival.

north Korea is probably a useful testing ground for CHinese equipment. And the Chinese might be able to learn some useful tactics, techniques, and procedures that they might be able to employ against Chinese citizens.

But this is another indicator of pnotneial internal instability. We must be observing for the indicators.

North Korea is buying Chinese surveillance cameras in a push to tighten control, report says

AP · April 16, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea is putting surveillance cameras in schools and workplaces and collecting fingerprints, photographs and other biometric information from its citizens in a technology-driven push to monitor its population even more closely, a report said Tuesday.

The state’s growing use of digital surveillance tools, which combine equipment imported from China with domestically developed software, threatens to erase many of the small spaces North Koreans have left to engage in private business activities, access foreign media and secretly criticize their government, the researchers wrote.

But the isolated country’s digital ambitions have to contend with poor electricity supplies and low network connectivity. Those challenges, and a history of reliance on human methods of spying on its citizens, mean that digital surveillance isn’t yet as pervasive as in China, according to the report, published by the North Korea-focused website 38 North.

The study’s findings align with widely held views that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is stepping up efforts to tighten the state’s control of its citizens and promote loyalty to his regime.

These efforts were boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, during which the North imposed stringent border controls that were maintained for three years before a cautious reopening in 2023.

New laws and recent reports of harsher punishments suggest that the government is cracking down on foreign influence and imported media, likely helped by fences and electronic monitoring systems installed on the border with China during the pandemic.

“Having seen that it’s possible to close the border this tightly, I think they are now keen to keep it that way,” said Martyn Williams, an analyst who co-authored the study with Natalia Slavney.

“In terms of broader surveillance across the country, the pandemic could have played a part, but I think a much bigger role has been played by the fast-reducing cost of surveillance equipment,” Williams said.

The report examined North Korean surveillance technologies through information gained from domestic and international media coverage and publicly announced research at North Korean universities and state organizations. The researchers also said they interviewed 40 North Korean escapees about the surveillance they experienced when they lived in the country and, through unspecified partners, surveyed 100 current North Korean residents in 2023 via phone, text messages and other forms of encrypted communication to ensure their safety.

State media reports show that video surveillance is becoming more common at schools, workplaces and airports. The cameras are mostly sourced from Chinese vendors and range from basic video feeds to more advanced models that include features like face recognition.

Experts have warned that China is exporting the technology that powers its AI-powered surveillance to countries around the world.

North Korean state media reports show that cameras now appear in most schools in the capital, Pyongyang, and other major cities, allowing school staff to remotely monitor what’s happening in classrooms by panning and zooming to focus on individual students or teachers.

Cameras are also widespread in factories, government buildings and other workplaces, both to improve security and to prevent theft, while facial recognition systems have been used to record visitors at Pyongyang’s Sunan airport since 2019.

North Korea has also been expanding its network of traffic cameras beyond Pyongyang since 2021, installing them at major roads heading into and out of the city, likely for the purpose of automatically recording license plates, the report said.

The government may not yet be fully able to utilize the data it collects, and it currently doesn’t have an intensive network of security cameras in streets and residential areas, possibly due to electricity shortages and the large number of security agents already monitoring public life in Pyongyang and elsewhere.

But North Korea does appear to be envisioning a future of more pervasive video surveillance — North Korean universities and research institutions for years have focused on developing technologies related to movement detection and facial and license plate recognition, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the state is also building detailed biometric profiles of its citizens. The latest version of North Korean national identification cards comes in a smartcard format and requires citizens to provide fingerprints, facial photographs and, at least according to one report, to take a blood test.

“For North Koreans, the spread of CCTV means even greater surveillance of their lives, especially if the cameras include automatic detection systems. If such cameras become more broadly used, citizens involved in illicit activities would be especially at risk as facial detection could track their movements throughout cities,” Williams and Slavney wrote.

“At present, North Koreans who get caught in activities such as smuggling or distributing illegally imported goods and foreign content can bribe local security services, but, unlike humans, security cameras cannot be bribed,” they said.

Williams said the government will push to expand its surveillance network beyond major cities as infrastructure improves. It still won’t be easy to make use of vast amounts of video data, he said, but North Korea can draw lessons from the surveillance state next door.

“Perhaps the biggest hurdle is the computing infrastructure to process all of this data in real time. Doing so on a national or even provincial level is not an easy task, if the network is to be truly pervasive and consist of multiple cameras,” Williams said. “The country would have to build a small data center and ensure a constant supply of power. I think it definitely can be inspired by China, which is a comparatively freer society in general but has a much more Orwellian digital surveillance network.”

AP · April 16, 2024

11. What N. Korea gains - and loses - through its new unification policy

I believe this can have a positive impact on South korea. First the ROK now has the moral high ground on unification and can now push its peaceful unification policy. Second, this policy change indicates that Kim fears the internal threats that are likely growing and will grow because of Kim's policies. Kim's promises have not been fulfilled. And now Kim is taking away the Korean people's last hope for a chance for better lives through unification.

But we should not be misled. Despirt the policy change on unification, the real policy remains domination of the peninsula to snure regime survival.

What N. Korea gains - and loses - through its new unification policy - Daily NK English

North Korea's removal of references to reunification could have a significant impact on South Korea

By Lee Jong-Suk - April 16, 2024

dailynk.com · by Lee Jong-Suk · April 16, 2024

On Aug. 9, 2023, the Eighth Expanded Meeting of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea was held at the Central Committee Headquarters, according to Rodong Sinmun. Kim unfolded a map of the South and instructed the military to "aggressively intensify war preparations." (Rodong Sinmun-News1)

There were more inter-Korean summits during the Moon Jae-in administration than at any time since the Korean Peninsula was divided. In particular, a long-awaited thaw on the Korean Peninsula began in 2018, when North Korean athletes participated in the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Three inter-Korean summits followed, seemingly marking a significant milestone in North-South relations. However, this atmosphere proved fleeting, and in June 2020, Kim Yo Jong – the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – ordered the explosive demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong. At this point, inter-Korean relations began to fracture, and with the start of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration in 2022, relations between the North and South were strained and tense.

At the beginning of 2024, North Korea’s hardline policy towards the South became even more harsh. Speaking at the 10th session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly on January 15, Kim Jong Un called for the removal of phrases such as “northern half” and “independence, peaceful reunification and great national unity” from the North Korean constitution and the designation of the South as the North’s “main enemy and unchanging main enemy. The meeting also saw the abolition of North Korea’s agencies responsible for relations with the South: the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country of the DPRK, the National Economic Cooperation Bureau and the Kumgangsan International Tourism Administration.

The prevailing theories

There are several theories as to why Kim made these decisions. First, if we examine the background of the decision, we see that the infiltration of South Korean culture and democracy into North Korea during relatively good inter-Korean relations could threaten the regime. The execution of people for secretly watching South Korean television programs shows this. North Korea may also seek to bolster internal cohesion by making a winning move against external threats to the regime, including international pressure and trilateral military exercises between South Korea, the United States, and Japan in response to the North’s development and advancement of nuclear weapons. However, while Pyongyang may expect such measures to result in tighter control and greater popular loyalty, the authorities should more carefully calculate what they stand to lose and gain.

North Korea’s removal of references to reunification could have a significant impact on South Korea. North Korea’s unification policy has been a constant and major source of tension in South Korean society. Countless pro-North groups in South Korea operated on what seemed to be a credible North Korean unification policy and ideology. However, with the end of North Korea’s unification policy, these groups may have less room to maneuver.

On the other hand, as pro-North groups in the South no longer need to hide their strategy, they may expand the scope of their activities as they evolve into more openly active extremist forces. North Korea’s removal of references to reunification may be a reflection of this strategy toward the South, and we must be vigilant. The biggest risk of North Korea’s sudden shift to a hostile policy toward the South is that the regime could use it to justify armed provocations and military clashes with the South. Ultimately, the shift may have come about because Kim Jong Un – who has warned that he would not shy away from a dramatic clash with the South – saw North Korea’s existing unification policy as an obstacle.

North Korea’s unification policy began with the division of the Korean Peninsula after the end of Japanese colonial rule. North Korea has long maintained that U.S. troops in South Korea must be withdrawn, just as Chinese and Soviet troops were withdrawn after the Korean War. Specifically, North Korea’s unification policy has remained unchanged in viewing the U.S. troop presence in South Korea as an occupying force and South Korea itself as a country to be liberated. Accordingly, North Korea’s reunification policy called for reunification with sovereignty for the Korean peninsula free from foreign interference.

In the past, the late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung advocated “peaceful reunification” and “great national unity” in building his regime. In his New Year’s speech in March 1948, he said that North Korea’s basic reunification policy was to solve the reunification issue peacefully under independent and democratic principles. This later led to the South-North Joint Declaration of July 4, 1972. The DPRK has long pursued this policy of reunification in a comprehensive and persistent manner both at home and abroad. The policy has also been widely known as a camouflage to help the regime achieve its goals.

The problem is that this “camouflage” was not only directed at South Korea. Kim Il Sung drilled this reunification policy of “national liberation” into the North Korean people to help build his regime. In other words, he used “national liberation” to vaguely deceive his people and consolidate his political position. As a result, the North Korean people inevitably internalized the vague goals and principles of reunification. Nevertheless, North Korea’s reunification front was an important motivating force that enabled the regime to sustain itself as it transferred power from father to son.

Removing the camouflage

Kim Jong Un’s recent repudiation and erasure of his predecessors’ policy of “reunification” denies the legitimacy of the reunification front that the regime has built up over the decades and, moreover, admits that the regime has long used the camouflage of reunification to deceive the people.

As for the North Korean government’s concerns about the ideological laxity of the North Korean people and the possible instability of the regime, they should reconsider how they apply the basic value of reunification to their own people before blaming the introduction of South Korean TV programs and pop music as the main cause. Even if it was false propaganda, their own understanding of reunification – such as concepts like “nation,” “compatriot,” and “liberation” – has probably been ingrained in the reunification policy.

One can turn on a dime and erase all visible evidence of reunification; however, by attempting to erase the belief in reunification ingrained in the hearts of the people, the regime may have to endure considerable chaos. Indeed, it remains doubtful that Kim Jong Un can foster the public cohesion and loyalty he desires.

North Korea has discarded an important card it can use to gain economic, political, and diplomatic benefits in its relations with the South in favor of brinkmanship. The regime should consider what it has achieved and what it has ultimately earned with the tactics it has used for so long.

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Views expressed in this guest column do not necessarily reflect those of Daily NK. Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Lee Jong-Suk · April 16, 2024

12. Digital Surveillance in North Korea: Moving Toward a Digital Panopticon State

Download the 46 page report here: https://www.38north.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/160424-Digital-Surveillance-in-North-Korea-English.pdf

Panopticon: a circular prison with cells arranged around a central well, from which prisoners could at all times be observed. (I admit I had to look up Panopticon).

For anyone instersign in control of the population and information this is a useful report.

Digital Surveillance in North Korea: Moving Toward a Digital Panopticon State

BY: MARTYN WILLIAMS AND NATALIA SLAVNEY
APRIL 16, 2024

Executive Summary

Digital technology is progressively entering into different facets of life in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) and reshaping the landscape of its society, especially in Pyongyang. Smartphones can now facilitate electronic payments; set-top boxes offer additional TV and streaming options; cameras keep watch on traffic in major cities; and electronic cards provide access to transportation.

However, this digital transformation comes at a price: as these technologies continue to roll out, the digital footprint for North Korean citizens becomes larger, and the North Korean state’s ability to gain a deeper insight into people’s lives grows.

North Koreans are already among the most tightly controlled and surveilled people in the world. The state makes numerous demands on their work and free time, limits their ability to move freely within their own country, dictates the media they can consume and restricts their freedom of speech. Citizens are constantly at risk of random or targeted inspections that can involve a complete search of their home or their person.

Much of the country’s existing surveillance network relies on a massive network of human intelligence gathering. From state security agency officials and police all the way down to the workplace administrators and the inminban (인민반) leaders who keep watch on their neighborhoods, some estimates say as many as 1 in 20 North Koreans is part of the existing surveillance system.

The network is large and complex and has served the leadership and Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) for years, keeping citizens under control to the extent that any challenge to authority is almost unheard of.

However, the state is not all-seeing yet. Small spaces exist that allow North Koreans to engage in illicit business activities, consume foreign media and privately criticize the government. The state’s inability to support its citizens means that if caught, people can often offer bribes to escape serious punishment.

The continued adoption of digital technology threatens to erase many of these spaces. A combination of the heavy state control exerted by North Korea and pervasive digital surveillance, such as that carried out in China, could extinguish all but the tiniest freedoms for the North Korean people.

According to our research, North Korea is building surveillance capabilities that reach across various facets of public and private life. While the state may not yet have the capacity to fully utilize all the data it can collect, it is moving towards even greater surveillance of its citizens, enhanced by digital technology.

The move is underpinned by several decades of research into biometric technology. As we outline in the report, facial recognition is in active use in the country, and the state is building a biometric database of citizens that includes photographs and fingerprints.

Facial recognition has the potential to track people wherever they go, and digitization of fingerprints will make the use of fake identification cards difficult or impossible. New video surveillance networks along the country’s northern border could make smuggling difficult, and a road surveillance network is spreading from Pyongyang to other cities.

The wider use of surveillance is not just trained on citizens, but also on the security services themselves—an apparent attempt to make the acceptance of bribes more difficult.

The danger these new technologies pose to the populous is exaggerated in North Korea because, in the absence of a watchdog media, many of its citizens lack a complete understanding of their digital footprint and the ways it could be used against them.

In this report, we look at the North Korean state’s steps further into the digital world and how this is being or might be used for surveillance purposes.

To do this, we examined technology currently in use in North Korea, looked at research on surveillance technologies being undertaken at universities and state organizations, and reviewed domestic and international media coverage of technology. We also conducted interviews with 40 North Korean escapees to get a sense of surveillance when they lived in the country and surveyed 100 current North Korean residents to find out the latest situation and understand their views on digital surveillance.

In our research for this report, we did not spend a lot of time detailing digital surveillance on smartphones, as the area was comprehensively covered in our previous Project Reveal report.

DOWNLOAD PDF

Download "Digital Surveillance in North Korea: Moving Toward a Digital Panopticon State," by Martyn Williams and Natalia Slavney

13. Ex-N. Korean diplomat indicted on sanctions evasion, money laundering charges in U.S.

Is he still "serving" in Thailand? Will the Thai's arrest him and extradite him to the US. It is not clear from the article except that it concludes noting these indictments are symbolic because there is little chance of him being brought to trial in the US.

Ex-N. Korean diplomat indicted on sanctions evasion, money laundering charges in U.S. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 17, 2024

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Yonhap) -- A former North Korean diplomat serving in Thailand was indicted on charges of sanctions evasion, a conspiracy to commit bank fraud and money laundering, the U.S. Department of Justice has said.

According to the indictment released this week, Ri Myong-ho arranged for shipments of goods to the North using U.S. dollar wire transfers without receiving a license from the U.S. Treasury Department, the department said.

His charges include a conspiracy to commit bank fraud and 18 counts of international money laundering relating to a scheme to smuggle goods into the North from Thailand via Dalian, China.

"This defendant allegedly skirted the sanctions put in place by the U.S. government in order to protect our national security," U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves for the District of Columbia was quoted as saying in a press release.

"He is also alleged to have thwarted U.S. banking laws, so that he could conduct business for North Korea, a foreign government that is determined to unlawfully expand its nuclear program," the official added.

Beginning around February 2015, Ri used his position as the third economic and commercial secretary in the North Korean Embassy in Thailand to negotiate contracts on behalf of a North Korean company to ship goods into North Korea from Thailand, according to the indictment.

Ri and his co-conspirators deliberately concealed the intended destination of the goods from banking institutions located in the U.S. and directed shipments through Dalian in order to obscure the true nature of their business, the department said.

"As a result, U.S. financial institutions unknowingly processed multiple U.S. dollar transactions for the benefit of North Korea," it said, citing the indictment.

The department stressed that a range of U.S. regulations prohibit the export of financial services from the U.S. or by any U.S. person to North Korea, including the processing of U.S. dollar wires for transactions conducted overseas.

A U.S. indictment for a North Korean is usually seen as a symbolic move as it is unlikely that a North Korean citizen would be brought to the U.S. to face a trial.

This captured image shows a copy of the U.S. indictment involving Ri Myong-ho, a former North Korean official. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · April 17, 2024

14. NIS monitoring possible use of N. Korea's weapons technology for Iran's attack on Israel

There has been a lot of cooperation between north Korea and Iran over the years.

NIS monitoring possible use of N. Korea's weapons technology for Iran's attack on Israel | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · April 17, 2024

SEOUL, April 17 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's spy agency said Wednesday it is monitoring whether North Korea's weapons technology was used in the ballistic missiles that Iran launched against Israel last week.

Following Iran's launch of more than 300 drones and missiles toward Israel on Saturday, some experts raised the possibility that North Korean parts or military technology could have been used for Iran's missile salvo against Israel, citing close military cooperation between Pyongyang and Tehran.

"We are keeping tabs on whether the North Korean technology was included in Iran's ballistic missiles launched against Israel, given the North and Iran's missile cooperation in the past," the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said.

Having established diplomatic ties in 1973, Pyongyang and Tehran are known to have close ties while under international sanctions for their weapons programs. The countries have been suspected of exchanging missile parts and technology, especially during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.

In 2006, the chief commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards publicly acknowledged that his country had obtained Scud-B and Scud-C missiles from North Korea during the war, but no longer needs Pyongyang's assistance.

A 2019 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency showed Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missiles were developed based on North Korea's midrange Rodong missiles. The Khorramshahr missile that Iran has developed is believed to be technically linked to North Korea's Musudan missiles.

Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesperson, said Tuesday that the U.S. is "incredibly concerned" about long-suspected military cooperation between North Korea and Iran.

In January, the NIS confirmed suspicions that North Korean-made weapons are being used by the Hamas militant group in its war with Israel despite Pyongyang's repeated denial of its arms transactions.

This photo, provided by EPA on April 16, 2024, shows a huge anti-Israel billboard carrying pictures of Iranian missiles in Tehran. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · April 17, 2024

15. Yoon, Kishida agree to deepen trilateral ties with U.S.

(LEAD) Yoon, Kishida agree to deepen trilateral ties with U.S. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · April 17, 2024

(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead, dateline; UPDATES with more info throughout)

SEOUL/TOKYO, April 17 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol agreed during phone talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday to promote bilateral and trilateral cooperation together with the United States, Yoon's office said.

The 15-minute conversation, which was initiated at the request of the Japanese side, followed Kishida's recent trip to Washington, D.C. for a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden.

During the phone conversation, Yoon expressed the need to further strengthen ties not only between Seoul and Tokyo but also with Washington amid escalating tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula and throughout the Indo-Pacific region.

Kishida reaffirmed Tokyo's commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation and to addressing various international issues through strengthened three-way cooperation with Washington.

The two leaders also shared their opinions on their respective responses to North Korea and agreed to further develop their close cooperation in dealing with issues related to the reclusive regime.

In this file photo, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) gestures to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to take a seat during their talks in San Francisco on Nov. 16, 2023, on the sidelines of a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · April 17, 2024

16. US Says Russia’s Arms Trade With North Korea Violates Sanctions

US Says Russia’s Arms Trade With North Korea Violates Sanctions

Thomas-Greenfield seeks help from South Korea and Japan
Cannot allow work of monitoring panel to lapse, she says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/us-says-russia-s-arms-trade-with-north-korea-violates-sanctions?sref=hhjZtX76

Linda Thomas-Greenfield during a visit to the south side of the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone on April 16.Photographer: Jung Yeon-Je/Pool/Getty Images

By Soo-Hyang Choi

April 16, 2024 at 10:53 PM EDT

The US ambassador to the United Nations said Russia’s arms trade with North Korea breaches international sanctions and Washington will seek ways to watch for violations after Moscow vetoed a measure to keep alive a monitoring panel.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield said during a visit to Seoul on Wednesday the US will work with partners such as South Korea and Japan, where she heads next, to develop options both inside and outside the UN to maintain the work of a Security Council Panel of Experts — a sanctions watchdog on North Korea.

“We cannot allow the work that the Panel of Experts were doing to lapse,” she said at a news conference. Thomas-Greenfield has been holding talks during her visit with senior officials on alternatives and ways to extend the role of a Panel of Experts that has monitored North Korea’s nuclear-weapons development for 15 years after a veto by Russia last month that could bring the group to a halt.

Thomas-Greenfield didn’t offer specifics of what mechanisms she may be perusing but she did accuse Moscow and Pyongyang of violating global sanctions.

“Russia has already been breaking the sanctions regime,” she said. “They are purchasing weapons against Security Council resolutions.” She added the US was concerned about Iran supplying weapons to Russia.

Cold War partners Russia and North Korea have forged a new partnership since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, built upon Pyongyang holding some of the world’s largest stocks of munitions that are interoperable with weapons Moscow has deployed to the battlefield.

The US, South Korea, Japan and others have accused North Korea of providing massive amounts of weapons that includes ballistic missiles, artillery shells and other military equipment to sustain President Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine.

The Russian-North Korean Trade Connection

Two ports suspected of bring hubs for an arms trade

While North Korea and Russia deny any arms transfers, imagery from commercial satellites has shown cargo vessels over the past several months shuttling between North Korea’s Najin port near the Russian border to places such as the Russian port of Dunay, a former Soviet submarine port about 180 kilometers (110 miles) away. The White House said it has tracked some of those shipments as they traveled by rail across Russia to be stored in depots near Ukraine.

The US envoy expects any move at the United Nations to come up against resistance from Russia and China — two of the biggest backers of North Korea that have veto power at the Security Council.

“The veto of the Panel of Experts does not veto the sanctions regime,” she said. “That regime stays in place.”

Follow all new stories by Soo-Hyang Choi

17. US 'incredibly concerned' about suspected NK-Iran military ties

It is not like these ties are new. We have long known this, As I reviewed the manuscript for Burce Bechtol and Anthony Celso's forthcoming book (Rogue Allies: The Strategic Partnership Between Iran and North Korea) I was amazed at the amount of open source information detailing the north Korea-Iran relationships.

Bruce Bechtol's last book also outlines the proliferation, cooperation, and collaboration between north Korea and Iran: North Korea Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability.

In 2018 (just before the Singapore summit) Dr .Bechtol published this useful article in Foreign Affairs which provides insights into the north Korea - Iran relationship.

North Korea’s Illegal Weapons Trade

The Proliferation Threat From Pyongyang

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-06-06/north-koreas-illegal-weapons-trade

US 'incredibly concerned' about suspected NK-Iran military ties

The Korea Times · April 17, 2024

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller speaks during a news briefing at the State Department, in Washington, July 18, 2023. AP-Yonhap

The United States is "incredibly concerned" about long-suspected military cooperation between North Korea and Iran, a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday.

Matthew Miller, the spokesperson, made the remarks in response to a question about whether America has concerns about Iran working with Pyongyang on nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

"Certainly, that's something we've been incredibly concerned about," Miller told a press briefing.

Having established diplomatic ties in 1973, Pyongyang and Tehran are known to have close ties while under biting international sanctions for their weapons programs.

In a separate briefing, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder also responded to a question over cooperation between Iran and North Korea, and the possibility that North Korean weapons were used to attack Israel.

"I can't speculate. Certainly when it comes to threats posed by the DPRK and Iran, (it's) something that we take very seriously," he said, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"When it comes to the Indo-Pacific region, just to make clear — similar to our ironclad defense of Israel — our relationship and our alliances with the Republic of Korea and Japan are also ironclad, and we will stand beside them to work together towards security and stability throughout the region," he added. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · April 17, 2024

18. Belarusian deputy FM visits N. Korea: KCNA

north Korea is placing more stones on the Go/Baduk board.

Belarusian deputy FM visits N. Korea: KCNA

The Korea Times · April 17, 2024

Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Evgeny Shestakov, center, left, visits Pyongyang, April 16. Yonhap

Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Evgeny Shestakov has arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea's state media said Wednesday, in an apparent move to boost bilateral ties.

The North's Korean Central News Agency did not provide any details in its one-sentence dispatch on Shestakov's visit.

The trip came amid North Korea's deepening cooperation with Russia, spawning views that Shestakov's visit could be aimed at strengthening ties among the three nations.

Belarus has been supportive of Russia over its war against Ukraine. North Korea is suspected of having supplied arms to Russia for the war while seeking technological assistance from Moscow for Pyongyang's weapons programs.

In a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed three-way cooperation involving Moscow, Minsk and Pyongyang.

In January, North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son-kyong held talks with Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Uganda. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · April 17, 2024

19. [Kim Seong-kon] Democracy and the future of South Korea

Excerpts:

Experts foresee that if the South Korean government remains in a vegetative state for the next three years in this critical moment, it will be costly for the Korean people. The world is now in an unprecedented crisis, as authoritarian countries’ invasions and nuclear war threats are escalating, and the influence of the US as a counterpower is rapidly diminishing. In these difficult times, South Korea should take action quickly in order to survive the imminent international tsunami. If the government is unable to do anything due to the malicious hindrance of the National Assembly, South Korea will lose precious opportunities and may fall hopelessly.

These days, the world worries about the return of the era of Stalin and Hitler. Entering such an Orwellian nightmare landscape, we cannot afford to waste time with internal scuffles. They say democracy is declining all over the world, but South Korea must remain a country of true liberal democracy.

[Kim Seong-kon] Democracy and the future of South Korea

koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · April 16, 2024

By Korea Herald

Published : April 17, 2024 - 05:30

There are a number of popular misconceptions about the meaning of democracy in Korea. Sometimes, we misunderstand democracy as merely “rule by the majority.” However, true democracy should also respect the opinions of the minority. Other times, we mistake democracy for the maxim that “we can do whatever we want to do.”

In a democratic system, people authorize their elected representatives to work on their behalf. Thus, we should not expect these representatives to ask for our consent or approval before they do anything. You also cannot force them to explain everything to you or communicate with you all the time because you elected them to “represent” you. In South Korea, however, people strongly demand their representatives to do all these things.

Dictionaries define “democracy” as “a system in which state power is vested in the people who elect their representatives through elections.” The problem with the above definition is that even authoritarian countries can claim that they are democratic countries because they always use "the people" as excuses or propaganda and put on a show of holding elections. Stalin once said, “The people who cast votes don’t decide elections, the people who count the votes do.”

For a long time, America has been undisputedly the foremost country of democracy together with the UK. As a result, both countries have enjoyed admiration from many other countries as role models of democracy. On the contrary, South Korea suffered a military dictatorship for a quarter of a century until 1987.

According to the recent Economist Democracy Index, however, South Korea is now a “full democracy” ranking 22nd, whereas the US ranks 29th as a “flawed democracy.” Looking at the Index, South Koreans must be excited and proud that their country has surpassed America, especially in democracy, in such a short span of time, and on the contrary, Americans must be appalled and experience a blow to their pride as their country falls into the category of a flawed democracy.

For some reason, however, both South Korea and America have remained calm since The Economist released the Democracy Index. Perhaps South Koreans think that they deserve to be in the top 10, not 22nd, or, to the contrary, that their country does not yet deserve the recognition, considering the country's problematic, embarrassing political climate. As for Americans, they may be confident that the US is still a leading country of democracy, even after the disgraceful Jan. 6 Capitol attack. If so, many Americans do not realize that the world is rapidly changing.

For the past two years, the South Korean National Assembly exerted tyranny by blocking the policies of the Yoon administration that required legislation. Indeed, the opposition party members behaved high-handedly to incapacitate the government. Such a disgraceful phenomenon would not happen in a truly democratic country.

Strangely, however, about two-thirds of Korean voters chose the opposition party again in the National Assembly election last week. As a result, the opposition party could continue to debilitate the government until President Yoon’s presidency ends in 2027. To make matters worse, the opposition party has already declared that they would impeach the president and initiate special prosecutor investigations of the first lady and Han Dong-hoon, the second most powerful man among Yoon’s associates. Naturally, people are wondering, “Under the circumstances, what could the Yoon administration do from now on?”

Older conservatives lament the situation and reprimand those who voted for the Opposition Party thoughtlessly, “What have you done? Don’t you see the country is falling down?” Their fury and dismay is understandable. In fact, however, they do not need to be exasperated. If the people chose incorrectly, they will inevitably suffer the consequences. “You reap what you sow,” as the maxim says. The problem is that their wrong choice could victimize other innocent people who chose wisely. Another problem is that their wrong choice surely would ruin the country that their parents and grandparents have built at great sacrifice.

Experts foresee that if the South Korean government remains in a vegetative state for the next three years in this critical moment, it will be costly for the Korean people. The world is now in an unprecedented crisis, as authoritarian countries’ invasions and nuclear war threats are escalating, and the influence of the US as a counterpower is rapidly diminishing. In these difficult times, South Korea should take action quickly in order to survive the imminent international tsunami. If the government is unable to do anything due to the malicious hindrance of the National Assembly, South Korea will lose precious opportunities and may fall hopelessly.

These days, the world worries about the return of the era of Stalin and Hitler. Entering such an Orwellian nightmare landscape, we cannot afford to waste time with internal scuffles. They say democracy is declining all over the world, but South Korea must remain a country of true liberal democracy.

Kim Seong-kon

Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul National University and a visiting scholar at Dartmouth College. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.

koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · April 16, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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