Dear Friends, 

We are pleased to announce the publication of a new Climate Note: “Understanding pro-climate voters in the United States.”

2024 is a critically important election year for the climate, both in the U.S. and around the world. Many important federal climate policies, including the transition to clean energy, investments in underserved and more vulnerable communities, and participation in international climate treaties, will be determined by voters’ choices in the 2024 elections. National polls find that Americans rank global warming as a lower policy priority than many other issues. However, these findings may underestimate support for action because a large number of Americans think that global warming is a very important voting issue, even if it is not at the very top of their list.

Using data from our latest Climate Change in the American Mind survey, we analyzed data from pro-climate voters, or registered voters in the U.S. who say both that global warming is a “very important” issue to their vote for president and that they prefer to vote for candidates who support action on global warming.

Just over one-third (37%) of registered voters in the U.S. are pro-climate voters. Notably, an additional 25% of registered voters also prefer a candidate who supports climate action even though they do not say that global warming is a very important voting issue to them. Most other respondents indicated that climate change will not factor into their voting choices, but importantly, virtually no registered voters said that global warming was a very important issue and that they prefer a candidate who opposes action.

Liberal Democrats are the group most likely to be pro-climate voters (70%), followed by urban residents (47%), Moderate/Conservative Democrats (47%), those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (45%), and Hispanics/Latinos (43%).

We found that pro-climate voters are more likely than all other voters to discuss global warming at least occasionally (67% vs. 19%), to hear about global warming in the media at least once per month (66% vs. 48%), to say that taking action on global warming is important to their family and friends (66% vs. 29%), to say that their family and friends make an effort to reduce global warming (62% vs. 24%), and to say that they hear other people about global warming at least once a month (40% vs. 15%).

In addition, we asked registered voters how likely they are to vote in the November 2024 presidential election. Pro-climate voters are more likely (89% “very likely” and 7% “somewhat likely”) compared with other voters (82% “very likely” and 9% “somewhat likely”).

Key Takeaways

A significant proportion of American registered voters (37%) are pro-climate voters. According to the most recent data available from the Census Bureau, there are more than 161 million registered voters in the United States. This suggests that there are nearly 60 million pro-climate voters in the U.S. Moreover, the great majority of these voters say they plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election. In a close election – as 2024 is expected to be – these voters could be decisive. 

Our analysis finds that pro-climate voters are already more likely to talk about global warming compared with other voters, but only 40% say they hear other people they know talk about global warming. Additionally, our analysis finds that 25% of registered voters overall do not say that global warming is a very important issue to their vote, but they nonetheless prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming.

Finally, although a large majority of pro-climate voters say they are likely to vote, not all of them are. Normative messages, such as letting people know that many people in their community are voting, including their own friends and family members, can encourage people to vote when they might not otherwise. Additionally, organizations like the Environmental Voter Project identify and engage low-likelihood voters who are concerned about environmental issues.

The complete Climate Note – which includes findings about pro-climate voters’ support for the Inflation Reduction Act, demographic data tables, and detailed methods – is available on our website.

As always, thanks for your interest and support of our work!

On behalf of the research team: Jennifer Carman, Matthew Ballew, Marija Verner, Seth Rosenthal, Anthony Leiserowitz, John Kotcher, and Edward Maibach.

For media inquiries, please contact Ed Maibach.