Quotes of the Day:

“Peace is a condition in which a Notion billion pays any attention to military casualties, which do not achieve page-one, lead-story prominence, unless that civilian is a close relative of one of the casualties. But if there ever was a time in history when “peace” meant that there was no fighting going on, I have been unable to find out about it.”  (Juan Rico) 

– Robert A. Heinlein Starship Troopers

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”

 – Marcus Aurelius

"There are only two rules when it comes to making plans. Never be without one. Never rely on it."

– A Sailor

1. Opinion | What a Russian and Ukrainian general agree on: This battlespace is different

2. Qatar gets 'positive' response from Hamas on cease-fire plan as group reiterates its broader demands

3. Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense.

4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2024

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, February 6, 2024

6. A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

7. Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity

8. Senators approve an Asia veteran as No. 2 diplomat, underscoring US efforts to keep focus on China

9. Opinion | A movement builds against Putin’s war in Ukraine

10. Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities kills five, officials say

11. More Than a Fifth of Hostages in Gaza Are Dead, Israel Says

12. SOCOM taking innovation foundry to London to focus on special ops in ‘smart cities’

13. US, Russia clash at UN over North Korea, Patriot missiles in Ukraine

14. ​Why Americans Are So Down on a Strong Economy

15. Army wants more tech feedback from deployed units for new 'transforming in contact' concept

16. North Korean ballistic missiles used in 9 attacks on Ukraine

17. Companies and Universities Can Help Reverse Military Recruiting Shortfalls Threatening America's National Security

18. Stop letting Iran hide behind its proxies and strike them head-on

19. America Has Never Had So Many 65-Year-Olds. They’re Redefining the Milestone.

20. The Middle East could get even uglier, with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah ready to wage war on Israel

1. Opinion | What a Russian and Ukrainian general agree on: This battlespace is different

Excerpts:

The lesson for the United States, beyond the simple but urgent need to continue military assistance for Ukraine, is to focus that support on the high-tech weapons that matter. The weapons that have generated endless debate, such as tanks and F-16 fighters, are less important than drones, antiaircraft systems and electronic-warfare jammers.

The best weapons today, agree the Russian and Ukrainian generals, might be small, cheap systems such as “first-person view” or FPV drones that fly into targets like tiny suicide bombers and can be almost impossible to stop. The chilling fact is that these silent killers can be bought and used by almost any combatant, anywhere on earth. It is, as the generals agree, a new day in warfare.

Opinion | What a Russian and Ukrainian general agree on: This battlespace is different

By David Ignatius

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February 6, 2024 at 7:02 p.m. EST

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · February 7, 2024

As top Russian and Ukrainian generals assess the battlefield after nearly two brutal years of stalemated “positional” warfare, they draw the same lessons: Tanks, manned aircraft and traditional maneuver forces are sitting ducks, while advanced drones and digital battle-management systems can have a decisive impact.

Russia has come to realize what Ukraine recognized more than a year ago: This is an “algorithm war,” one where digital intelligence and targeting systems have rewritten the rules of conflict. The “fog of war” experienced by commanders for centuries has cleared. In the newly transparent battlespace, movements by large units are instantly visible and vulnerable.

This look into Russian and Ukrainian military assessments is possible thanks to commentaries published in the past two weeks by two veteran commanders, Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, a former chief of the Russian general staff, and Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, head of the Ukrainian military. They appeared, respectively, in Army Standard, a Russian publication, and on the website of the Ukrainian defense ministry.

The commentaries were flagged to me by Kevin Ryan, a retired Army brigadier general who served as U.S. defense attaché in Moscow and then taught at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. He translated the articles and circulated them this week among Russia specialists. Zaluzhny made similar comments about the importance of drones in an interview published in November in the Economist, but the Russian analysis is new and startling.

“These two adversaries see many of the same lessons,” Ryan writes in an email summarizing the commentaries. The generals recognize that in the Ukraine battlespace, “no concentration of troops, large or small, can escape the ever-present reconnaissance by unmanned aerial systems and satellites,” he notes.

The tactical revolution underway in Ukraine underlines why a congressional failure to approve continued U.S. military support for Kyiv would be so devastating. As Russia gains increasing mastery of digital warfare, Zaluzhny worries that Ukraine is hobbled by “exhaustion of our partners’ stocks of missiles and ammunition” and “the difficulty of our allies in determining the priorities of support.”

Baluyevsky’s comments read like a wake-up call to his fellow Russian officers. He argues that the so-called special military operation in Ukraine has been “an unprecedented test of literally all components of military affairs and military construction.” His analysis came in the forward for an anthology of essays about the war, which was then summarized in Army Standard by Russian journalist Sergey Valchenko.

Baluyevsky echoes many Western commentators who have argued that defense has trumped offense in Ukraine. “Air defense has won an unexpected triumph over military aviation,” which has “lost the ability to operate en masse over enemy territory” and must even fly “with caution over its own territory.”

The tank “has become one of the main casualties of the combat experience of the last two years,” he explains, since it was “an easily detected and easily hit target” and “turned out to be very vulnerable to mines.” Similarly, “the impossibility of concentrating troops … forces us to conduct combat operations with small units and separate combat vehicles.”

Baluyevsky has some scathing comments about the performance of Russian weapons. “The qualitative superiority of NATO artillery is evident,” he contends. Ukraine “has revealed a significant lag in Russian artillery and missile systems and requires their priority radical rearmament in the next few years.”

The winners in this war are drones. “Unmanned aircraft have rapidly and unconditionally conquered the airspace,” Baluyevsky argues. Zaluzhny agrees that “unmanned systems, along with other new types of weapons, are almost the only tool for getting out of” the stalemate of trench warfare.

Zaluzhny bemoans Russia’s manpower advantage and Ukraine’s “inability … to improve the state of staffing of the Defense Forces without the use of unpopular measures,” such as a nationwide draft. His disagreement with President Volodymyr Zelensky about the need for such an all-out mobilization is one reason for recent tension between the two men — and Zelensky’s reported readiness to sack his commander.

Ukraine, as I wrote after visiting Kyiv in October, is exhausted by war and slowly bleeding out. Zaluzhny implicitly recognizes this war fatigue in arguing for increased use of unmanned systems to “reduce the level of losses … reduce the degree of participation of traditional means of destruction … [and] limited involvement of heavy equipment.”

The lesson for the United States, beyond the simple but urgent need to continue military assistance for Ukraine, is to focus that support on the high-tech weapons that matter. The weapons that have generated endless debate, such as tanks and F-16 fighters, are less important than drones, antiaircraft systems and electronic-warfare jammers.

The best weapons today, agree the Russian and Ukrainian generals, might be small, cheap systems such as “first-person view” or FPV drones that fly into targets like tiny suicide bombers and can be almost impossible to stop. The chilling fact is that these silent killers can be bought and used by almost any combatant, anywhere on earth. It is, as the generals agree, a new day in warfare.

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · February 7, 2024

2. Qatar gets 'positive' response from Hamas on cease-fire plan as group reiterates its broader demands

Qatar gets 'positive' response from Hamas on cease-fire plan as group reiterates its broader demands

BY MATTHEW LEE, WAFAA SHURAFA AND SAMY MAGDY

Updated 5:40 PM EST, February 6, 2024

AP · February 6, 2024

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Hamas’ response to the latest plan for a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages was “generally positive,” key mediator Qatar said Tuesday, as the militant group reiterated its demand for an end to the war, something Israel has thus far ruled out.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Thani announced the response during a news conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said he would brief Israeli leaders on it Wednesday when he meets with them.

Blinken, who met with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the day before, said the Saudis still have a “strong interest” in normalizing relations with Israel but require an end to the war and a “clear, credible, time-bound path to the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Qatar, which has long mediated with Hamas, has been working with the U.S. and Egypt to broker a cease-fire that would involve a halt in fighting for several weeks and the release of the over 100 hostages still held by Hamas after its Oct. 7 cross-border raid that ignited the war.

Hamas said in a statement that it responded in a “positive spirit” to the latest proposal. But the militant group said it still seeks “a comprehensive and complete” cease-fire to end “the aggression against our people.” Hamas is also expected to demand the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including high-profile militants, in exchange for the hostages.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out both demands, saying Israel is committed to continuing its offensive until “total victory” over Hamas and to returning all the hostages. He has also dismissed U.S. calls for the creation of a Palestinian state.

When asked by reporters, President Joe Biden said Hamas’ response “seems to be a little over the top” but that negotiations would go on.

A U.S. official said Blinken was told the Hamas response was delivered to Qatar just an hour before his meeting with the prime minister. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the behind-the-scenes negotiations.

Blinken acknowledged “there’s still a lot of work to be done.” But he said he still believed an agreement on the hostages was possible and that a pathway to more lasting peace and security in the region was “coming ever more sharply into focus.”

“We know the immense benefits that would come for everyone concerned with Israel’s further integration into the region, starting with the benefits for Israel,” Blinken said. “That’s something that Israelis will have to decide for themselves.”

“All of this requires difficult, hard decisions, made all the more challenging given the focus on the conflict in Gaza,” Blinken said.

Netanyahu’s office said the Hamas response had been delivered to Israel’s Mossad spy agency and was being “thoroughly evaluated.”

WAR GRINDS ON IN GAZA

The Palestinian death toll from nearly four months of war has reached 27,585, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-run territory. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count but says most of the dead have been women and children.

The war has leveled vast swaths of the tiny enclave and pushed a quarter of residents to starvation.

Hamas and other militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the Oct. 7 attack and abducted around 250. More than 100 captives, mostly women and children, were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November in exchange for the release of 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

The Israeli military said Tuesday it was battling militants in areas across the Gaza Strip, including the southern city of Khan Younis. It said troops killed dozens of militants over the past day, without providing evidence.

An Israeli airstrike in the city hit an apartment building, killing two parents and four of their five children, according to the children’s grandfather.

Mahmoud al-Khatib said his 41-year-old son, Tariq, was sleeping along with his family when an Israeli warplane bombed their apartment in the middle of the night. The Israeli military rarely comments on individual strikes but blames Hamas for civilians deaths because it fights in residential areas.

HUMANITARIAN CRISIS PERSISTS

U.N. humanitarian monitors said Tuesday that Israel’s evacuation orders in the Gaza Strip now cover two-thirds of the territory, or 246 square kilometers (95 square miles). The affected area was home to 1.78 million Palestinians, or 77% of Gaza’s population, before the war.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA, said in its daily report that the newly displaced have only about 1.5 to 2 liters (50 to 67 ounces) of water per day to drink, cook and wash. It also reported a significant increase in chronic diarrhea among children.

Parents of babies face a particularly difficult challenge because of the high cost or lack of diapers, baby formula and milk.

Zainab Al-Zein, who is sheltering in the central town of Deir al-Balah, said she had to feed her 2.5-month-old daughter solid food, such as biscuits and ground rice, well ahead of the typical 6-month mark because milk and formula were not available.

⁠“This is known, of course, as unhealthy eating, and we know that it causes her intestinal distress, bloating and colic,” al-Zein said. “As you can see, 24 hours like this, she cries and cries continuously.”

___

Shurafa reported from Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the Israel-Hamas war at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

AP · February 6, 2024

3. Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense.

Iraq Hosts Both U.S. and Iranian-Backed Forces. It’s Getting Tense.

As Iranian-backed groups and American forces, both of which have bases in Iraq, lock horns around the Mideast, things are becoming uncomfortable for the Iraqi government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/world/middleeast/iraq-iran-us-strikes.html

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A funeral in Iraq on Sunday for fighters killed in U.S. airstrikes.Credit...Anmar Khalil/Associated Pres​s

By Alissa J. Rubin

Feb. 7, 2024, 12:01 a.m. ET

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For years, Iraq has managed to pull off an unlikely balancing act, allowing armed forces tied to both the United States and Iran, an American nemesis, to operate on its soil.

Now things are getting shaky.

When Washington, Tehran and Baghdad all wanted the same thing — the defeat of the Islamic State terrorist group — the relationships were fairly tenable, but in recent months, as the war in the Gaza Strip sends ripples across the region, American and Iranian-backed forces have clashed repeatedly in Iraq and Syria. A U.S. strike on one of those militias last week killed 16 Iraqis, and Iraq is saying it has had enough.

“Our land and sovereign authority is not the right place for rival forces to send messages and show their strength.” the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement on Sunday.

For many years, both Iran and the United States had their proponents within the Iraqi government, and the Iranian-backed armed groups and the American troops lived in a tolerable if uneasy balance.

That started to change in 2020 after the United States killed one of Iran’s top security and intelligence commanders, Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a widely revered figure at home, in a drone attack as he was visiting Iraq. The Iranians began pushing hard for the U.S. military to be ejected.

Iraqi leaders resisted, in part because of divisions over which country Iraq should lean toward. Even after 2022, when parties close to Iran were able to form a government, there was a notable distinction between what Iraq officials said about the United States publicly and what they said in private.

Now, Mr. Sudani’s government is sounding increasingly tough.

Its statement Sunday denouncing the fighting on its soil was particularly pointed in its criticism of the United States, describing last week’s attack in western Iraq as “a blatant aggression” that had jeopardized talks on reducing the number of American troops in Iraq. “Violence only begets violence,” the statement warned.

The comments reflected the thorny situation the Iraqi government finds itself in as it negotiates a withdrawal of the American troops that have been in Iraq off and on since 2003.

Iraq has been under pressure from Iran, which views the United States as a mortal enemy, to compel the complete removal of U.S. forces from its soil. But a number of military officials in Iraq and in the United States believe the country would benefit from a limited U.S. military presence focused on training and on tracking the remaining threat from the Islamic State.

The Iraqi government has deep political and military connections to Iran, and on Sunday it made only an elliptical reference to the Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq that have attacked U.S. camps and bases more than 160 times since the war between Hamas and Israel began in October.

It was those attacks that prompted recent instances of U.S. retaliation, including the one on Friday that killed 16 Iraqi soldiers, angering many in the Iraqi government. It followed a drone strike on Jan. 28 by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. soldiers at a base in northwest Jordan.

Image

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of Iraq during negotiations with American officials last month.Credit...Pool photo by Hadi Mizba​n

Analysts who follow Iraq closely suggested that recent events have put the two countries at an inflection point, potentially forcing a faster withdrawal of U.S. troops than the United States — and many in Iraq — might have hoped for.

“The problem for both the Iraqi and U.S. governments, said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the London-based research group Chatham House, is “that neither wants an escalation and neither wants a continued presence of U.S. troops.”

Before the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel’s retaliatory bombing and invasion of the Gaza Strip, both Iraq and the United States had been “on the same page,” Mr. Mansour said, and hoped to negotiate a mutually beneficial troop withdrawal arrangement.

Israel-Hamas War: Live Updates

Updated 

Feb. 6, 2024, 5:45 p.m. ETFeb. 6, 2024

Feb. 6, 2024

• Immigration bill also authorizes billions of dollars in aid to Israel.
• An internal Israeli report estimates a fifth of the remaining 136 hostages have died.

But now there are new pressures. Much as the two countries might want to go back to the pre-Oct. 7 discussions, “things are changing, and they are trying to deal with this new, emerging reality,” Mr. Mansour said.

Image

“American forces must be removed immediately from Iraq,” said one Iraqi official, Hadi al-Ameri, shown in 2018.Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Time​s

Colin P. Clarke, the head of research for the Washington-based Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consulting firm, said he was concerned that over the past few days, the rhetoric from both the Americans and the Iraqis had spiraled. The danger, he said, is “that the war of words becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the U.S. ratchets up its rhetoric and the Iraqi government does the same, and then it’s who’s going to flinch first.”

Mr. Clarke said he worried that the United States would withdraw its troops too quickly, a replay of the breakdown of negotiations in 2011, which resulted in the U.S. pulling all of its troops out of Iraq. Within two years, the Islamic State had taken over tranches of western Iraq and a year later, much of Iraq’s north, as well as precipitating a four-year war that cost tens of thousands of lives.

After the deadly American strike last week, Nuri al-Maliki, a former prime minister of Iraq who leads an influential Parliamentary party that supports the government, appeared at least publicly disinclined to give much room to the United States, saying it had targeted Iraqis “in cold blood.”

Hadi al-Ameri, one of the leaders of the Framework Coalition, which backs Mr. Sudani, went further. “We do not believe in negotiations,” he said, “and American forces must be removed immediately from Iraq.”

How the next few weeks unfold will depend on how Mr. Sudani navigates the twin pressures from Iran and the United States. The head of the Islamic Republic’s Security Council was in Baghdad on Monday, and the head of its Quds Force, Gen. Ismail Qaani, was there last week for meetings with Iraq’s security officials.

“Sudani has been undermined systematically for the last four months,” said Rend al-Rahim, the president of the Iraq Foundation, which promotes democracy and human rights in Iraq. The Iraqi leader, she said, has “done his utmost” to curb the Iranian-backed militias that have been targeting U.S. troops. “They haven’t listened to him,” she said.

“He was very angry,” Ms. al-Rahim said. “Then the U.S. strike came on top of this already building anger that now Iraq is an open field for the U.S. to settle scores with Iran.”

Mr. al-Sudani — much like President Biden and Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei — has domestic politics to consider, several Iraqi analysts said. “He worries that he now appears weak,” said Ehsan al-Shimmari, a political science professor at Baghdad University.

Beyond that, Mr. al-Shimmari said, the current situation has made clear the limits of his power. Even when it comes to one of the most major foreign policy decisions facing Iraq — the future role of the United States military there — it is not entirely up to him.

”He is waiting to hear what the Iranian position will be, and then, based on that, he will balance the considerations and make his decision,” Mr. al-Shimmari said. “but this makes him feel cornered.”

Falih Hassan contributed reporting from Baghdad.

Alissa J. Rubin covers climate change and conflict in the Middle East. She previously reported for more than a decade from Baghdad and Kabul, Afghanistan, and was the Paris bureau chief. More about Alissa J. Rubin

4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2024-0

Key Takeaways:

• America’s European and Asian allies have significantly ramped up their efforts to support Ukraine. As European partners continue to increase their support for Ukraine, US aid provision in the near to medium-term remains vital to help Ukraine build its defense industrial base (DIB).
• The US Army plans to significantly increase US domestic production of 155mm artillery shells and shell components for Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, should the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations bill pass.
• Russian authorities are reportedly paying Iran roughly $4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine.
• Russia is reportedly unfreezing North Korean assets and helping North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for missiles and artillery ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev emphasized on February 6 that Russia needs to protect its strategic facilities as Russian authorities continue to voice concerns about external and internal threats to Russian infrastructure.
• The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions for possible hybrid provocations against the Baltic states and Georgia.
• Russian-Israeli relations are likely continuing to decline against the backdrop of Russia’s increasingly anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Russian authorities are reportedly paying roughly $4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and to seek international recognition of Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 6, 2024

Feb 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2024

Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Fredrick W. Kagan

February 6, 2024, 9:30pm ET 

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on February 6. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 7 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Note: Due to a technical issue, ISW is unable to publish today's update with the map. You can read the update with the maps included on the research blog here. We will include the maps on the update once the issue is resolved.  

America’s European and Asian allies have significantly ramped up their efforts to support Ukraine. European Council President Charles Michel stated on February 6 that the European Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement on the creation of a new single dedicated instrument – the Ukraine Facility – to pool the EU’s recently announced support package of 50 billion euros (about $54 billion) for Ukraine for 2024-2027.[1] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU aims to start payments to the Ukraine Facility in March 2024.[2] German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall stated on February 5 that it plans to send tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells, dozens of Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, and an unspecified number of Skynex air defense systems to Ukraine in 2024.[3] South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) stated on February 6 that it plans to sign a contract with ammunition producer Poongsan in 2024 to mass produce 155mm shells that have an extended range of 60 kilometers.[4] South Korea reportedly began indirectly supplying artillery shells to Ukraine in early 2023, and these shells may go to European allies for indirect transfer to Ukraine.[5]

The EU and its member states have made available 138 billion euros (about $148.5 billion) - including its recently announced support package of 50 billion euros (about $54 billion) - to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.[6] In comparison, the US has appropriated $113 billion to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, of which over $75 billion was directly allocated to Ukraine for humanitarian, financial, and military support.[7] The US government allocated the other $38 billion to security assistance-related funding, which the US government spent largely in the US and on US companies or personnel.[8]

As European partners continue to increase their support for Ukraine, US aid provision in the near to medium-term remains vital to help Ukraine build its defense industrial base (DIB). ISW continues to assess that the US will not need to send large security assistance packages to Ukraine indefinitely if Ukraine successfully continues to actively pursue measures aimed at domestically producing its own weapons, building bilateral and international defense industrial partnerships, and creating industrial joint ventures with Western enterprises aimed at co-producing defense materials.[9] The US will need to continue supporting Ukraine for several years as Ukraine builds its own DIB, but Ukraine’s international security requirements will decrease in the long run as it builds out its own capabilities to become self-sufficient. The ultimate success of Ukraine's efforts to build its DIB, however, depends on Ukraine’s ability to liberate strategically vital areas currently occupied by Russian forces. US and partner military aid to Ukraine in the near term therefore continues to be crucial as the US remains the main source of sufficiently large quantities of essential military equipment, such as M1 Abrams tanks, armored personnel carriers, advanced air defense systems such as Patriots, and long-range strike systems - equipment which previous US aid packages prioritized.[10]

The US Army plans to significantly increase US domestic production of 155mm artillery shells and shell components for Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, should the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations bill pass. US Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Doug Bush stated on February 5 that the US Army aims to double the US monthly production of 155mm artillery shells from 28,000 shells per month in October 2023 to about 60,000 shells per month in October 2024 - if the Congressional bill passes.[11] The US Army hopes to further increase production to 75,000 shells per month in April 2025 and 100,000 shells per month in October 2025. Bush stated that the construction of a new factory in Texas, which will “have an entirely new way” of using technology to make artillery shells, will contribute to the Army’s increased production goals. Bush noted that US shell production in part depends on US domestic production of explosive materials. Bush stated that the proposed supplemental bill includes $600 million for increasing the production of explosives at the Holsten Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee from five million pounds of explosives a year to 13 million pounds.[12] The proposed bill would also include $93 million to reestablish the production of M6 propellant (used to fire artillery shells but no longer in production in the US) at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant in Virginia, and $650 million would go to constructing a facility (likely also at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant) to domestically produce TNT, which the US currently does not produce. Bush stated that the proposed bill also includes $14 million to construct and recommission a black powder explosive production line in Louisiana. Such investments in US manufacturing are necessary to help support US strategic readiness by rebuilding America’s atrophied defense industrial base, separate and apart from the need to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Russian authorities are reportedly paying Iran roughly $4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine. A group of hackers from a hacking organization called the Prana Network claimed to have hacked into the servers of purported Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) front company Sahara Thunder on February 4 and published the costs per drone that Russia purchases from Iran.[13] The leaked documents suggest that Russia pays $193,000 per Shahed-136 drone in batches of 6,000 drones, which would total about $1.1 billion for all 6,000 Shahed-136 drones.[14] Russia reportedly pays $1.4 million per unit for one type of Shahed-238 drone and plans to purchase 677 of these upgraded Shahed drones per year, which would total about $947 million.[15] Another type of Shahed-238 reportedly cost about $900,000 per drone, and Russia reportedly plans to purchase 2,310 per year for just under $2.1 billion.[16] The documents claimed that the reconnaissance and attack Shahed-107 drones cost $460,000 each and that Russia plans to purchase 2,310, which would total about $1.5 billion.[17] A Russian milblogger justified the high cost due to the risk that Iran assumes by selling these drones to Russia and noted that the documents indicate that Russia plans to further localize production of Shaheds in Russia, which will reduce acquisition costs over time.[18] ISW is unable to confirm the authenticity of the purported leaked documents, but a milblogger’s claim that the documents refer to Iran as a ”friendly country” and refer to the Shahed drones in code as ”boats” is consistent with previously observed language about Iran and Iranian drone production in Russia.[19] Russian forces routinely use Shahed drones, which serve as both loitering munitions and as decoys to distract Ukrainian air defenses, and the massive expenditure on such systems is noteworthy.

Russia is reportedly unfreezing North Korean assets and helping North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for missiles and artillery ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine. The New York Times (NYT) reported on February 6 that unnamed “US-allied” intelligence officials told the NYT that Russia unfroze $9 million of $30 million worth of North Korean assets in an unspecified Russian financial institution, which the intelligence officials assess North Korea will use to buy crude oil.[20] The intelligence official stated that a North Korean front company recently opened a new account at a Russian bank in Russian-occupied South Ossetia that North Korea may use to evade UN sanctions. An unnamed senior US government official told the NYT that Russia is likely unfreezing North Korean assets and helping North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for North Korean weapons transfers to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in Russia in September 2023 and met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in January 2024.[21] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated that North Korea delivered one million rounds of artillery ammunition to Russia from September to November 2023, and US officials have stated that Russian forces have launched at least nine North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine.[22] ISW continues to assess that Russia may be open to financial, technological, and defense cooperation with North Korea in return for the provision of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to use in Ukraine.[23] North Korea would also benefit from this cooperation by collecting technical data from its weapons’ performance in Ukraine to use in North Korean research and development among other things.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev emphasized on February 6 that Russia needs to protect its strategic facilities as Russian authorities continue to voice concerns about external and internal threats to Russian infrastructure.[24] Patrushev held a meeting on Russian national security issues in the Ural Federal Okrug on February 6 and emphasized that Russia needs to increase efforts to prevent and respond to natural and man-made emergencies in the okrug, including strengthening counterterrorism protections of “critical and potentially dangerous facilities” and “hazardous production facilities,” both of which very likely include Russian defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises, non-defense industrial enterprises, ports, and other logistics objects. Patrushev emphasized increasing onsite security, Russia’s investigative capacity, and awareness of threats to these facilities.[25] Patrushev stated that Russian authorities prevented 23 “terrorist attacks” against objects in the Urals in 2023 but that criminals conducted nine attacks.[26] Patrushev claimed that Ukrainian actors increasingly seek to recruit saboteurs in Russia to conduct these attacks.[27] Other Russian authorities continued to warn of prospective Ukrainian attacks against Russian infrastructure; the Russian Administration of Baltic Sea Ports announced on February 6 that it has introduced a high alert regime for Vyborg, Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Vysotsk in Leningrad Oblast due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes against port infrastructure.[28]

The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions for possible hybrid provocations against the Baltic states and Georgia. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian charges d’affaires to Moscow on February 6 due to an alleged “lack of a proper response” to repeated Russian requests for Baltic authorities to “provide security” to Russian nationals voting in the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential election from abroad in Baltic capitals.[29] Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that any disruptions at Russian polling stations in Baltic nations will cause “serious protest among Russians“ living in Baltic countries because such disruptions would violate the constitutional rights of Russian nationals to vote in Russian elections. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov similarly claimed on February 5 that Western governments have launched “Russophobic” influence campaigns aimed at Russian embassies, consulates, and similar assets abroad and warned that Western provocations abroad increase when polling stations open for Russians to vote in foreign countries.[30] Lavrov’s and Zakharova’s statements are likely aimed at setting informational conditions to frame essentially any action on the part of foreign authorities, including Baltic states, regarding the Russian presidential election as a direct attack on Russian nationals living in Baltic states. The Kremlin frequently invokes the concept of “compatriots abroad” to claim special privileges for Russian nationals living outside of Russia and to set informational conditions for provocations in the countries where Russian “compatriots” live.[31] The weaponization of the Russian presidential election will allow the Kremlin to stage informational provocations against Baltic governments, which fits into the Kremlin’s wider hybrid influence playbook. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili also stated on February 6 that Russia has launched a “new hybrid war against Georgia, for which it is using all forms and weapons,” referencing Russian naval basing projects in the port of Ochamchire, Russian-occupied Abkhazia, and other provocations in the Georgian territories that Russia has occupied since 2008.[32] Hybrid influence campaigns such as information operations surrounding Russian elections in the Baltics and provocations in occupied regions of Georgia destabilize Russia’s neighbors.

Russian-Israeli relations are likely to continue to decline against the backdrop of Russia’s increasingly anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) publicly criticized and summoned new Israeli Ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin over an interview she gave with Russian outlet Kommersant published on February 4.[33] Halperin stated that it took Russia

“some time” to publicly condemn the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, expressed her dissatisfaction at Russian government officials meeting with Hamas officials in January 2024 and questioned why Russia has not included Hamas on its list of terrorist organizations banned in Russia.[34] The Russian MFA claimed that Halperin gave “distorted interpretations and unacceptable assessments” of Russian foreign and domestic policy.[35] The Russian MFA’s public criticism and subsequent summoning of Halperin are indicative of the continued deterioration of Russian-Israeli relations, amid Russia’s increasingly anti-Israel position on the Israel-Hamas war.[36]

Key Takeaways:

• America’s European and Asian allies have significantly ramped up their efforts to support Ukraine. As European partners continue to increase their support for Ukraine, US aid provision in the near to medium-term remains vital to help Ukraine build its defense industrial base (DIB).
• The US Army plans to significantly increase US domestic production of 155mm artillery shells and shell components for Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, should the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations bill pass.
• Russian authorities are reportedly paying Iran roughly $4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine.
• Russia is reportedly unfreezing North Korean assets and helping North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for missiles and artillery ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev emphasized on February 6 that Russia needs to protect its strategic facilities as Russian authorities continue to voice concerns about external and internal threats to Russian infrastructure.
• The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions for possible hybrid provocations against the Baltic states and Georgia.
• Russian-Israeli relations are likely continuing to decline against the backdrop of Russia’s increasingly anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Russian authorities are reportedly paying roughly $4.5 billion per year to import Iranian Shahed drones to use in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and to seek international recognition of Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Russian Technological Adaptations
• Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts
• Activities in Russian-Occupied Areas
• Russian Information Operations and Narratives
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on February 6, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Synkivka, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[37] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka.[38]

Russian forces reportedly recently advanced near Kreminna, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area on February 6. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Terny and Yampolivka.[39] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued west of Kreminna near Terny, Torske, and Yampolivka and south of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka.[40] Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps) reportedly continue to operate near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.[41]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance north of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on February 3 confirms that Russian forces captured Vesele (northwest of Bakhmut).[42] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on January 18 that Russian forces captured Vesele, and this is the first time ISW has observed visual confirmation of these Russian claims.[43] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating near Vesele.[44]

Positional engagements continued near Bakhmut on February 6, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces made small advances towards Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut) and Ivanivske (west of Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of Russian advances in either of these areas.[45] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.[46] Elements of the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) and the “Sever-V” Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near Bohdanivka; elements of the Russian 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) are reportedly operating near Bakhmut; and elements of the Russian 88th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps) are reportedly operating near Klishchiivka.[47]

Russian and Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting in the area on February 6. Geolocated footage published on February 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained limited tactical positions in a residential area in southern Avdiivka.[48] Additional geolocated footage published on February 6 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Avdiivka.[49] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in northwestern Avdiivka along Sapronov and Lesya Ukrainka streets, nearby where geolocated footage indicates a Russian advance in northern Avdiivka, and in the quarry area on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka.[50] Several Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced up to one kilometer towards Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), and reached the southeastern outskirts of the settlement, although ISW has not yet observed visual evidence to confirm these claims.[51] Avdiivka Military Administration Head Vitaly Barabash noted that Ukrainian forces are clashing with small Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups within Avdiivka, but emphasized that there are still no large-scale urban street battles ongoing.[52] Barabash and the spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in Avdiivka both emphasized that the situation in the area is very difficult and that Russian forces are trying to capture the town for political and informational reasons before the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.[53] The Ukrainian brigade spokesperson also stated that Russian forces are equipping their armored vehicles with electronic warfare (EW) systems to protect against Ukrainian drones.[54] ISW recently observed Russian milbloggers repeatedly criticize Russian authorities for failing to equip Russian forces with EW systems after a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast, so Russian forces near Avdiivka may be trying to apply lessons learned to improve Russian force protection.[55] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutikva; near Avdiivka itself; south of Avdiivka near Vesele; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Tonenke, Stepove, and Nevelske.[56] Elements of the Russian 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) reportedly continue to operate near Avdiivka.[57]

Geolocated footage further confirms that Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City during an ultimately failed mechanized assault in the area in late January. Geolocated footage published on February 3 confirms that Russian forces advanced east and south of Novomykhailivka during recent renewed mechanized attacks south of the settlement.[58] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka - claims consistent with available geolocated evidence.[59]Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued west of Donetsk City near Pobieda and southwest of Donetsk City near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka.[60]A Russian milblogger claimed that prepared Ukrainian defenses near Heorhiivka, the lowland comprising Heorhiivka, and nearby Ukrainian artillery firing positions will complicate any Russian advances through the settlement towards Kurakhove (13km west of Marinka).[61]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on February 6, but there were no confirmed changes in this area of the frontline. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal advances near Pryyutne (southwest of Velyka Novosilka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.[62] Russian sources claimed that positional engagements continued near Urozhaine and Staromayorske (both south of Velyka Novosilka).[63] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger complained that Ukrainian mines and drones hinder Russian armored vehicle operations so that Russian forces can only conduct infantry attacks with artillery and drone support.[64] Elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating near Urozhaine.[65]

Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on February 6, but there were no confirmed changes in this area of the frontline. Positional engagements continued near Robotyne and west of Verbove (east of Robotyne).[66] Elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate near Verbove.[67] Elements of the Russian 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (both of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) reportedly continue to operate in the Zaporizhia direction.[68]

Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky on February 6.[69] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces operating in the Kherson direction are prioritizing locating and striking Ukrainian drone operators, which is consistent with routine Russian milblogger claims that Ukranian first-person view (FPV) drones pose a significant threat to Russian forces in east bank Kherson Oblast.[70]

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) reported on February 6 that Ukrainian SOF units successfully detonated explosives on a Black Sea gas or oil rig that Russian forces illegally seized and used to stage attacks with Iranian-provided Mohajer-6 reconnaissance drones and guide Shahed drone strikes.[71] Ukrainian SOF reported that Russian forces also deployed a ”Neva-B” object detection radar system on the rig, which allowed Russian forces to better surveil the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Ukrainian SOF reported that Russian forces also used the mining platform as a radar station to monitor surface vessels in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Nothing significant to report.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Kremlin continues expanding higher military education in Russia in support of medium-term force generation efforts. The Russian MoD announced on February 6 that it is building a new branch of the Suvorov Military School in Ulyanovsk and that the school will begin accepting students as soon as September 2024.[72] The Russian Higher School of Economics announced on February 2 that it is creating the Institute of Military Economics and Strategy and that retired Admiral Sergei Avakyants, who commanded the Pacific Fleet from 2010 to April 2023, will lead the institute.[73] The Kremlin demoted Avakyants in April 2023 amid a surprise readiness check, possibly due to the poor performance of Pacific Fleet naval infantry in Ukraine.[74]

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

See topline text.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on February 6 ordering the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers and General Staff of the Armed Forces to develop a separate branch of unmanned systems forces within the Ukrainian military and submit relevant proposals to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.[75]

Reuters reported on February 6 that Turkey’s leading drone maker Baykar started building a drone factory near Kyiv that will manufacture Bayraktar-TB2 or TB3 model drones.[76] Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar told Reuters that the factory’s construction will take about 12 months after which Baykar will install internal machinery and equipment. Bayraktar stated that the factory would employ about 500 people and produce about 120 drones per year. Baykar announced that it would open a drone production facility and service center in Ukraine in September 2023.[77]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and to seek international recognition of Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Center Elections Committee (CEC) Chairperson Ella Pamfilova, Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin, Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik, and representatives from occupied Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Crimea met on February 6 to discuss the establishment of Russian MFA representative offices in occupied Ukraine.[78] The Russian MFA also emphasized its role in facilitating the work of international observers in occupied Ukraine during the March 2024 presidential election.[79] Russian authorities likely intend to frame the presence of international observers at polling stations in occupied Ukraine as international legitimization of Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine.

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

A Russian official escalated claims of the alleged use of pro-Nazi rhetoric against Lithuania likely to further set information conditions for possible future campaigns against the Baltic states. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Lithuania of the “glorification of Nazi collaborators” in relation to an ongoing Russian complaint that Lithuania and other Baltic states are removing or relocating Soviet-era monuments within their territories.[80] Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Mitrofanova made a similar accusation that Bulgaria is trying to ”erase everything positive about Russia” in Bulgaria by taking down Soviet-era monuments and editing textbooks, allegedly at the behest of the West.[81]

Russian officials continue efforts to accuse the West of being escalatory and conflict-seeking in order to justify Russia’s continued war against Ukraine and deter further military assistance to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attempted to portray the United States and the collective West as refusing to deescalate perceived aggression against Russia in order to develop Western defense industrial base (DIB) capacities in support of Ukraine’s defense.[82] Russian Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva Gennady Gatilov falsely equated current Western efforts to mobilize DIB capabilities with nuclear escalation and the deterioration of global security.[83] Russian officials have routinely attempted to spoil US and other Western policy discussions about the provision of additional military aid to Ukraine to achieve Russia’s goal of wearing Ukrainian forces down until Ukraine capitulates.

Significant Activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Krutoy stated on February 6 that Belarusian and Russian interior ministers have discussed the creation of a unified list of “extremists” and “extremist sources.”[84] Krutoy stated that he believes that Belarus and Russia will create a unified list in the near future.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, February 6, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on February 5 that Israeli operations have dismantled 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, rendering them “no longer function as fighting military organizations.” Gallant and the IDF have not identified a precise definition for “dismantle.“
• Palestinian fighters are using more sophisticated weapons to attack Israeli forces in the areas Palestinian militias have infiltrated in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Iraq and Syria: A top UN official in Iraq claimed that both US self-defense strikes and Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks targeting US forces “recklessly heighten tensions,” which ignores Iran’s role in driving escalation in Iraq. Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reiterated their plans to continue attacking US forces on February 6.
• Yemen: Houthi fighters targeted two merchant vessels in the Red Sea with anti-ship missiles on February 6.

IRAN UPDATE, FEBRUARY 6, 2024

Feb 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran Update, February 6, 2024

Andie Parry, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Alexandra Braverman, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST 

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on February 5 that Israeli operations have dismantled 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, rendering them “no longer [functional] as fighting military” organizations.[1] Gallant and the IDF have not identified a precise definition for “dismantle." The IDF previously announced Israeli forces had “dismantled” all of Hamas’ battalions in the northern Gaza Strip on January 6.[2] Hamas cells have continued attacks in the northern Gaza Strip after the IDF withdrew most of its forces on December 31.[3] The continued Palestinian militia attacks in the northern Strip demonstrate the risk posed by small, networked military cells in the northern Gaza Strip. The size of the cells and the degree of organization and coordination between them is not clear. Palestinian militia activity in the northern Gaza Strip spurred a division-sized IDF clearing operation in western Gaza City over the last week, however.[4] These cells remain capable of reorganizing into an embryonic military structure.[5] The Hamas Gaza City Brigade commander will continue to support this reorganization.[6]

A top UN official in Iraq claimed that both US self-defense strikes and Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks targeting US forces “recklessly heighten tensions,” which ignores Iran’s role in driving escalation in Iraq. The head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq stated on February 6 that “messaging by strikes only serves to recklessly heighten tension,” in reference to both Iranian-backed attacks and US self-defense strikes responding to these attacks.[7] Beginning on October 22, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted 33 attacks targeting US forces in Iraq without triggering a US response inside Iraq.[8] US forces first responded in Iraq to attacks targeting US forces after Kataib Hezbollah fired a ballistic missile targeting a US position in late November 2023.[9] The United States has the right to protect and defend its personnel in Iraq, who are deployed at the invitation of the Iraqi federal government to fight ISIS. The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are themselves escalating tensions in Iraq and the region and violating Iraqi sovereignty by continuing to attack US forces unilaterally and without provocation.

Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reiterated their plans to continue attacking US forces on February 6. The leader of Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba said that the “resistance” will expel the United States.[10] A field commander for Ashab al Kahf, a militia close to Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also warned that Ashab al Kahf will apply “extreme force” until the United States withdraws from Iraq and ends support for Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip.[11] Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba and Ashab al Kahf both vowed to continue attacking US forces after Kataib Hezbollah announced on January 30 that it suspended “military and security” operations targeting US forces.[12]

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on February 5 that Israeli operations have dismantled 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, rendering them “no longer function as fighting military organizations.” Gallant and the IDF have not identified a precise definition for “dismantle.“
• Palestinian fighters are using more sophisticated weapons to attack Israeli forces in the areas Palestinian militias have infiltrated in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Iraq and Syria: A top UN official in Iraq claimed that both US self-defense strikes and Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks targeting US forces “recklessly heighten tensions,” which ignores Iran’s role in driving escalation in Iraq. Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reiterated their plans to continue attacking US forces on February 6.
• Yemen: Houthi fighters targeted two merchant vessels in the Red Sea with anti-ship missiles on February 6.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters are continuing to infiltrate previously cleared areas of the northern Gaza Strip. CTP-ISW assessed on February 3 that Palestinian fighters infiltrated southwestern Gaza City.[13]

The IDF said that Hamas is attempting to restore its “intelligence collection” capacity in the northern Gaza Strip, likely to aid its attacks on Israeli forces and reestablish control over the local population. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Unit 414 Intelligence Battalion (assigned to the 143rd Division) directed airstrikes targeting four Palestinian fighters in Beit Hanoun who attempted to establish a Hamas reconnaissance position in the area.[14]  Palestinian militants last conducted attacks from Beit Hanoun on January 25.[15]

Palestinian militias have conducted several combined attacks in the areas that they have infiltrated in the northern Gaza Strip since mid-January.[16] This trend indicates several militias have infiltrated into the previously cleared zones and that they are closely collaborating against Israeli forces. The Palestinian militias arrayed against the IDF in the Gaza Strip organized themselves into a “Joint Operations Room" in 2018 to fight the IDF.[17] This force is led by Hamas' military wing.

Palestinian fighters are using more sophisticated weapons to attack Israeli forces in the areas Palestinian militias have infiltrated in the northern Gaza Strip. PIJ fighters detonated an explosively-formed penetrator (EFP) targeting an Israeli military vehicle in western Gaza City, where the 162nd Division launched a new, division-size clearing operation last week.[18] Local Palestinian journalists reported that Israeli forces pulled a “charred” military vehicle from the attack site, corroborating PIJ’s attack claim.[19]

Elements of the IDF 143rd Division directed an airstrike targeting a PIJ fighter in the Deir al Balah area on February 6.[20] The IDF said that the PIJ fighter participated in the attack in Nir Oz on October 7.[21] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade said separately that an Israeli airstrike killed one of its senior commanders in Deir al Balah between February 3 and 4.[22] Palestinian militias did not claim any attacks on Israeli forces in the central Gaza Strip on February 6.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western Khan Younis on February 6. The IDF said that the IDF 98th Division killed “dozens” of Palestinian fighters and detained over 80 others on February 5 and 6 in western Khan Younis, including fighters that the IDF suspects participated in Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel.[23] The Givati Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) killed over 15 fighters in multiple engagements with Palestinian militias in the same area.[24] The IDF 646th Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) killed a Palestinian fighter hiding in a building in western Khan Younis.[25] The IDF 646th Brigade and the Egoz Unit located small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and EFPs during raids in the area.[26]

Palestinian militias continued to attempt to defend against Israeli clearing operations in western Khan Younis on February 6. Hamas’ military wing detonated EFPs and fired thermobaric and anti-tank rockets at IDF forces in several areas of western Khan Younis.[27] PIJ’s military wing fired rocket-propelled grenades at Israeli armor and fired small arms targeting Israeli forces in western Khan Younis.[28] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also detonated EFPs and fired anti-tank weapons and small arms at Israeli forces in the same area.[29]

The Qatari prime minister said during a press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on February 6 that Qatar had received a "positive response" from Hamas on the framework of a hostage exchange agreement.[30] Blinken said that the United States is reviewing Hamas’ response to the deal and that he will discuss Hamas’ response with Israeli officials during his visit to Israel on February 7. Hamas said on February 6 that the group dealt with the proposal with a “positive spirit,” including by reiterating Hamas’ demands for a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire.”[31] Netanyahu said on January 21 that Israel will not accept a comprehensive ceasefire, which has been an obstacle for several weeks during the negotiations.[32] The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office released a statement acknowledging that it received Hamas’ response.[33]

IDF published captured Hamas documents showing that Iran supplied Hamas and Yahya Sinwar with millions of dollars of operational funding. Israeli forces found six years of financial documents outlining 150 million dollars of funding to Hamas and Sinwar.[34] The IDF also uncovered about 5.5 million dollars in cash during the raid.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters eight times across the West Bank.[35] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in Jenin, Tulkarm, and Beit Ummar detonated improvised explosive devices and fired small arms targeting Israeli forces during Israeli raids in the West Bank.[36] The IDF said unidentified Palestinian fighters shot at an Israeli settlement in Merav, east of Jenin.[37]

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted ten attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on February 6.[38] Hezbollah claimed nine of the attacks.[39]

Iranian-backed militias fired one rocket salvo into the Golan Heights from southwestern Syria on February 5.[40]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting Eilat, Israel, on February 5.[41] CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim.

The Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Border Guards arrested several unspecified individuals attempting to smuggle weapons from Iraq into Ilam Province, Iran on February 6.[42] The LEC Border Guards commander said that the LEC identified and arrested the smugglers with support from the Iranian Intelligence and Security Ministry and unspecified Iraqi forces. Iranian security forces interdicted anti-regime Kurdish separatist weapon shipments from Iraq into Kurdistan Province and Ilam Province, Iran in September 2023.[43] Iranian officials have long expressed concerns that Israel and anti-regime Kurdish militant groups are using Iraqi Kurdistan to facilitate operations targeting Iran.[44] Iranian forces conducted airstrikes into Iraqi Kurdistan in March, September, October, and November 2022 and in January 2024 in response to these perceived threats.[45]

The LEC arrested several likely Salafi-Jihadi insurgents throughout southeastern Iran on February 5 and 6. LEC officers arrested one suspected ISIS fighter and one suspected Ansar ul Furqan fighter in two separate incidents in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[46] Ansar ul Furqan is a Balochi Salafi-jihadi group linked to al Qaeda.[47] LEC officers arrested one individual suspected of killing a senior LEC officer in Fars Province.[48] Balochi Salafi-jihadi militant group Jaish al Adl has conducted at least five attacks targeting Iranian security personnel since December 2023, including one assassination targeting an LEC officer.[49] The Afghan branch of the Islamic State separately detonated two suicide vests in Kerman Province on January 3, killing over 90 individuals.[50]

Houthi fighters targeted two merchant vessels in the Red Sea with anti-ship missiles on February 6.[51] Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed that Houthi fighters successfully hit the Greek-owned and Marshall Islands-flagged Star Nasia and the UK-owned Morning Tide merchant vessels.[52] An unidentified Greek official said that the attack damaged the Star Nasia but that the attack did not harm any crewmembers.[53] The Morning Tide’s owners reported that a separate attack caused an explosion near the Morning Tide, but that the explosion did not damage the ship.[54] Sarea falsely claimed that the Star Nasia was US-owned.[55] Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi alleged that the United States is attempting to camouflage its vessels by operating its ships under different flags.[56]  Sarea stated that the Houthis will continue attacks on US and UK targets in the Red Sea in response to US and UK strikes.[57] He also said the Houthis will continue attacks targeting Israeli vessels and vessels en route to Israel.[58]

US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted two self-defense strikes targeting Houthi one-way naval surface attack drones in Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory.[59] CENTCOM said that the drones presented an imminent threat to US Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.[60]  

6. A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Tariffs haven’t reduced U.S. trade links with China much. Would a 60% rate do it?

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a-china-u-s-decoupling-you-aint-seen-nothing-yet-12c0828e?mod=hp_lead_pos6

By Greg Ip

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Feb. 7, 2024 5:30 am ET

The U.S. hasn’t kicked the Chinese import habit as much as the data suggest. PHOTO: RICHARD VOGEL/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The U.S. trade deficit with China is on track to fall to its lowest in a decade. This looks, at first glance, like a decoupling of the two economies thanks to the steep tariffs President Donald Trump slapped on Chinese imports in 2018.

Trump is spoiling to finish the job, floating a 60%, or higher, tariff on all Chinese imports if he’s re-elected this fall.

The U.S., though, hasn’t kicked the Chinese import habit as much as the data suggest. Chinese and Western manufacturers have found numerous ways around tariffs; they are likely to redouble those efforts if the levies go higher.

Last year, the overall U.S. trade deficit shrank to $1.1 trillion from $1.2 trillion in 2022, according to preliminary data from the Commerce Department. As a share of gross domestic product, it fell to 4%, the lowest in a decade.

Most of the reduction came via the gap with China. This dropped by more than $100 billion to $281 billion in the 12 months through November from the same period a year earlier. December data will be released Wednesday morning.

One reason the deficit shrank is that U.S. importers might have overordered in 2022, leading to swollen inventories and less imports in 2023 even as consumption stayed strong.

More fundamentally, the shrinking trade deficit overstates how much the U.S. has reduced its consumption of Chinese-made products. As the trade war heated up, many manufacturers began moving production to other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs. So the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico leapt to $151 billion in the 12 months through November, more than double the 2017 figure. The deficit with Vietnam ran at $104 billion, almost triple the level of 2017.

A lot of the value of those increased imports from Vietnam and Mexico actually consisted of inputs originally sourced in China. It’s hard to say how much because of gaps in the data. Still, the McKinsey Global Institute recently reported that even as China’s share of U.S. manufactured imports declined from 2017 to 2020, its share of the value added in goods consumed in the U.S. actually rose.

Furthermore, Chinese companies have been exploiting a decades-old provision in U.S. trade law that allows packages worth less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free.

Federal data compiled by the Yale University economist Amit Khandelwal and a co-author show the number of packages entering the U.S. under that “de minimis” exception has tripled since 2017 to a billion last year.

Former President Donald Trump has floated China tariffs of at least 60% if he is returned to the White House. PHOTO: JOHN LOCHER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

This doesn’t mean the tariffs had no effect. Khandelwal and others found the tariffs reduced imports of the affected products by 30%; some of that was made up for by purchases of other Chinese, foreign or American-made products. The authors estimate the total cost to the U.S. economy at 0.04% of GDP, as losses to consumers slightly offset gains to U.S. producers and the U.S. Treasury.

A separate study by David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-authors found that counties whose companies were meant to benefit from tariffs marginally gained employment. But, on average, those gains were more than offset by losses when China retaliated. (Nonetheless, it found those counties rewarded Trump politically, the study found.)

The fundamental obstacle to decoupling is that China’s dominant position in world manufacturing makes it hard to find substitutes. Its economy is hard-wired to manufacture more than it can consume, dictating that it export the surplus. As collapsing property investment undercuts growth, the ruling Communist Party has leaned even more on manufacturing, though many companies are already unprofitable.

“2024 will be the year of overcapacity, and pressure on exporters in China will be sky-high,” said Joerg Wuttke, president emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “In wind turbines, solar panels, everyone is losing money. In cars, one company makes money, the other 100 lose money.”

So, if tariffs of 25% barely reduced the U.S.’s dependence on China, would 60% do more? Probably. Khandelwal ran the numbers for a 35% tariff. He estimates a much larger effect on imports and resulting cost, equal to 0.8% of GDP.

Still, Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations predicts China would double down on efforts to evade or neutralize higher tariffs. “The incentive to disassemble the product, take out a few screws, find an alternative screw supplier, ship them to a third party so it’s not 100% Chinese content, and package it as an export from the third party is just overwhelming,” he said. Its companies would make even greater use of the de minimis exception, he added.

This doesn’t mean the U.S. and China are destined to stay coupled. Historically, supply chains move gradually. Often, just one step or component goes offshore before an ecosystem of suppliers develops. Over time, the Chinese component in U.S. imports from third countries seems destined to drop.

“Greenfield foreign direct investment into developing countries has remained constant, but the share that’s going to countries that are not China and not Russia has gone way, way up,” said Olivia White, one of the authors of the McKinsey report. “That’s consistent with that investment helping those countries’ capacity to do more and more.”

To make India a base for mobile-phone production, 

Apple is moving more suppliers there. Samsung has done the same in Vietnam.

The catch is that Chinese companies are playing that game too. To get around American tariffs, their electric-vehicle and battery companies are building or contemplating new factories in countries that have trade agreements with the U.S., such as Mexico, South Korea and Morocco.

Setser predicts that China, to make up for lost exports to the U.S., would drive down its currency to boost exports to countries that haven’t raised tariffs—expanding Chinese companies’ presence in those economies.

Of course, the U.S. could try to keep those imports out by hitting other trading partners with tariffs. Trump has proposed a 10% levy on all imports, not just from China.

This, though, is a recipe for the decoupling of the U.S. not just from China, but the whole world.

Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com

7. Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity

The 26 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.scsp.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SCSP-Drone-Paper-Hinote-Ryan.pdf

Key point:

A key finding of our paper however is that these uncrewed systems alone are not what is currently transforming the character of warfare. Instead, the shape of modern war, and conflict in the future, will be transformed by the interaction and orchestration of three distinct yet connected systems. As we note in the paper:

It is only when drones are combined with the democratization of digitized command and control systems and new-era meshed networks of civilian and military sensors that transformational change will occur. These three elements comprise a transformative trinity explored later in this paper, and it is only within this construct that drones will fully realize their potential for defense and other national security applications.

We were able to employ our observations and analysis from the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and to also use our knowledge of developing systems and warfighting concepts that exploit the three elements of the transformative trinity examined in the paper.

Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/uncrewed-systems-and-the-transformation

A new report co-authored with Lieutenant General (retired) Clint Hinote.

MICK RYAN

FEB 6, 2024

New technologies often require updating old ideas, old strategies, and old ways of preparing humans for war. Every now and then, however, a new technology forces a disruptive shift in how wars are started, fought and ended. Uncrewed systems—which are now undergoing a form of Cambrian Explosion in capability, quality and quantity—appear to be such a technology. These systems are disrupting how combatants are considering risk, cost and authority on the modern battlefield.

I recently had the priviledge to work with retired United States Air Force Lieutenant General Clint Hinote in producing a report on the future of uncrewed systems, and how the U.S. Department of Defense might undertake a range of reforms to fully realise the extraordinary potential of these air, land and maritime systems. Before his retirement, Lieutenant General Hinote (as the Deputy Chief of Staff for the Air Force) led a 400-person organization to become “Air Force Futures,” responsible for planning and integration for the future U.S. Air Force.

Therefore, I was honoured to work with such an experienced and intellectual warfighter in developing and publishing this report for the Special Competitive Studies Project.

A key finding of our paper however is that these uncrewed systems alone are not what is currently transforming the character of warfare. Instead, the shape of modern war, and conflict in the future, will be transformed by the interaction and orchestration of three distinct yet connected systems. As we note in the paper:

It is only when drones are combined with the democratization of digitized command and control systems and new-era meshed networks of civilian and military sensors that transformational change will occur. These three elements comprise a transformative trinity explored later in this paper, and it is only within this construct that drones will fully realize their potential for defense and other national security applications.

We were able to employ our observations and analysis from the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and to also use our knowledge of developing systems and warfighting concepts that exploit the three elements of the transformative trinity examined in the paper.

Three Crucial Areas for Transformation

In our findings, we propose a variety of potential changes and evolutions in the current approaches of the U.S. military services. These fall into three categories:

Personnel. People are at the heart of all military capability, and are crucial to realizing the full benefit of uncrewed systems. As militaries seek people who can make this possible, they will need to consider how the widespread use of uncrewed systems will affect recruiting, training (individual and collective), education, culture, promotion and leadership development models.

Procurement. In order to field large numbers of uncrewed systems within the tranformative trinity, explored in our report as well as defensive systems to degrade enemy use of these systems, military institutions must identify equipment requirements, apply funds for procurement action, and agree to contracts for the right equipment and services. In each of these areas, uncrewed systems drive unique challenges.

Processes. Transformation in military affairs is often about changes and evolution in processes. Key military processes include tactics, doctrine, organization, support agencies, learning and adaptation in military institutions. Through transformation in these processes, Allied militaries have an opportunity to shape these emerging technologies, and provide foundations for their use, in ways that favor their strengths, with the result being a significant advantage in combat.

Recommendations to Transform and Improve Military Effectiveness

We concluded our report with a variety of recommendations for how uncrewed systems, working in the construct of the transformative trinity described in the report, can transform the U.S. military and ensure its effectiveness and success in 21st century conflict.

Some of the key recommendations of our report include:

1. The Secretary of Defense should establish a temporary, cross-service task force to explore the warfighting implications for service and joint personnel as well as new training models to enable a much different ratio of uncrewed systems in military operations.
2. The Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment should consider acquisition strategies that separate the design of uncrewed systems, as well as a range of hard- and soft-kill systems to counter them, from the ability to manufacture them in the procurement process.
3. DoD should explore the development of an alliance variation of the transformative trinity under an AUKUS-like model.
4. The Deputy Secretary of Defense should create a single common-access portfolio for uncrewed systems to allow different organizations to share classified information and collaborate on the development of these systems.
5. The Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should direct the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) to oversee the Joint portfolio of uncrewed systems.
6. DoD organizations, including the Services, should fund and execute experimentation with prototypes to develop new warfighting concepts for uncrewed systems, as well as their hard- and soft-kill counters, that draw on the lessons of Ukraine and Israel, as well as anticipate technological developments.
7. In concert with evolving warfighting concepts, DoD organizations, including the research laboratories, should experiment with the orchestration of uncrewed systems (i.e. ‘swarming’) across the domains.
8. As part of the DoD ‘Hedge Portfolio,’ the Secretary of Defense should direct the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) to incentivize private investment in companies that design and produce uncrewed systems.
9. Instead of specific requirements, DoD acquisition executives should adopt trade-off ranges to evaluate the performance of uncrewed systems.
10. Closely related to the consideration of key trade-offs, DoD acquisition executives should adopt a key performance parameter for uncrewed systems that compares the fully-burdened cost of mission achievement with cost imposition.

Meeting the Challenge of Transforming our use of Uncrewed Systems

If the U.S. military can achieve an optimal blending of new-era technologies with new ideas, new organizations, and empowered leadership, it and Allied militaries will be able to build and sustain a strategic edge over potential adversaries. And, it must be done at a pace not seen since the end of the Cold War.

The speed at which Russia, China and others are able to develop, deploy and evolve their warfighting capabilities at scale must drive the U.S. and its allies and partners to implement a different strategic tempo in order to build and sustain a warfighting advantage.

I hope that our report provides insights to help in this process.

You can read the entire report here at the Special Competitive Studies Project.

8. Senators approve an Asia veteran as No. 2 diplomat, underscoring US efforts to keep focus on China

I wonder if the SECSTATE will cede Aisa diplomacy to Dr. Campbell?

Senators approve an Asia veteran as No. 2 diplomat, underscoring US efforts to keep focus on China

AP · by ELLEN KNICKMEYER · February 6, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. senators on Tuesday confirmed a veteran of U.S.-Asian engagement and security as the State Department’s second-ranking diplomat, in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote.

The approval of President Joe Biden’s nomination of Kurt Campbell as deputy secretary of state underscores decades of efforts by Biden and his modern predecessors to turn the United States’ main foreign policy focus to China, as the big challenge for America going forward.

Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks and the Israeli offensive and regional fighting that followed have made Biden only the latest U.S. leader forced to pivot U.S. attention back to Middle East conflicts, however.

The Senate approved Campbell 92-5 in a show of bipartisan support. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont joined the Republicans voting no.

Appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Dec. 7 after his nomination, Campbell pointed to the security significance of the date — the anniversary of a surprise attack from Asia, by Japan, that drew the United States into World War II.

“But I would also say December 7 teaches us other things as well,” Campbell told senators. “And that is the redemptive power of democracy,” helping to make allies and partners of Japan and other like-minded nations in Asia.

Campbell’s most recent roles include serving as deputy assistant to Biden and coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs on the National Security Council.

Campbell was central to Biden’s push to reinvigorate the diplomatic grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia and India. His work is credited with helping to ease historic tensions between South Korea and Japan and shape U.S. China policy.

Campbell in his December appearance before the foreign relations committee called Iran a “strategic nemesis” and “antagonist” to the U.S. but not an enemy, opposed calls by Sanders and some Democratic senators to condition military aid to Israel, and argued for strong military support to Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.

Campbell succeeds Wendy Sherman, who retired in July.

ELLEN KNICKMEYER

Foreign policy, national security, foreign policy & climate

twitter

AP · by ELLEN KNICKMEYER · February 6, 2024

9. Opinion | A movement builds against Putin’s war in Ukraine

Excerpts:

Putin will win his reelection in March, regardless of whether Nadezhdin is on the ballot. But that won’t put an end to the growing discontent over the war, especially if the Russian leader orders a second mobilization to throw fresh troops into the so-called meat grinder in Ukraine.

As Russian opposition politician Leonid Gozman observed, Putin’s administration might have seriously misjudged the people’s mood: “There now exists an open wound — the war in Ukraine. Whichever issue you press upon now, the pain will radiate in that wound.”

And an emboldened antiwar movement is likely to press on.

Opinion | A movement builds against Putin’s war in Ukraine

By Amy Knight

February 6, 2024 at 8:00 a.m. EST

The Washington Post · by Amy Knight · February 6, 2024

Amy Knight is the author of seven books on Russian history and politics, including “The Kremlin’s Noose: Putin’s Bitter Feud With the Oligarch Who Made Him Ruler of Russia,” which will be published in May.

Western observers are increasingly pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances for driving out the Russian invaders, with some even suggesting that Vladimir Putin might use his country’s military might to attack NATO countries on its borders. But one key factor is ignored by the doomsayers: Support for Putin’s war among Russians — crucial to the country’s success in defeating Ukraine — is faltering significantly.

Not only do some polls suggest that a majority of Russians want the Kremlin to end the Ukraine conflict, but a vocal, grass-roots opposition to the war is also taking shape — and is throwing a monkey wrench into Putin’s plans to use his reelection as an affirmation of national backing for his military agenda.

The most prominent face of the movement is Boris Nadezhdin, an antiwar candidate looking to qualify for the upcoming March presidential elections. But even before Nadezhdin appeared on the scene, the movement “The Way Home” (“Put Domoy” in Russian), organized by the wives and mothers of Russian soldiers, was gaining steam.

The movement began in September, when the Kremlin announced that soldiers mobilized a year earlier would not be relieved of their duties on the battlefield as promised. The plan to recruit enough volunteers to serve in their place was a failure, and Putin was reluctant to announce a second mobilization for fear of igniting widespread opposition. (As Russian opposition leader Vladimir Milov points out, “Russians may be prepared to ‘support’ the war verbally, but they are clearly not rushing to fight themselves.”)

The women, who go to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near Red Square in Moscow to lay flowers every Saturday, have supported Putin’s presidency in the past. But their stance has hardened as the Kremlin ignores their pleas, with some even labeling Putin a coward, and they recently met with Nadezhdin to coordinate their plans.

A poll conducted in December by the independent Russian Field project showed that almost 50 percent of respondents supported the demands of these women. The Kremlin has little choice but to tolerate the movement, whose Telegram channel has nearly 40,000 subscribers, because punitive action against its members would make them martyrs and draw more sympathy to their cause. This past Saturday, when around 100 women appeared outside the Kremlin to protest, police arrested journalists who were covering the occasion. When some protesters tried to block the police van carrying them away, the police only pushed the women aside without detaining them.

Meanwhile, in mid-January, mass protests erupted in Bashkortostan, a mineral-rich region in Russia’s southern Ural mountains, against the prison conviction of a Bashkir ethnic rights leader named Fail Alsynov. The conviction ignited deeper grievances, in particular resentment that Bashkirs are bearing an outsize burden in the Ukraine conflict. A video posted recently on social media showed a group of Bashkir soldiers addressing the Russian government: “If you don’t stop acting against our people, against our fathers and mothers, we will abandon our positions and come for you. If you want a war, you will get it.”

The most concrete challenge to Putin has come from Nadezhdin’s prospective candidacy in March’s presidential election. A former State Duma deputy from the liberal Union of Right Forces party, Nadezhdin is running as an outspoken and defiant critic of the war, calling the Ukraine invasion a “fatal mistake.”

Nadezhdin collected more than double the 100,000 signatures required for his name to appear on the ballot and submitted 105,000 of them to the Central Election Commission last week. Political analysts were astounded by the record-breaking queues to register signatures in cities all across Russia.

As expected, the Central Election Commission announced on Monday that it found flaws in slightly more than 15 percent of the signatures. Nadezhdin plans to dispute the errors on Wednesday when he meets with the commission for its final decision on his candidacy. If he is disqualified, as most observers expect he will be, Nadezhdin will appeal to the Russian Supreme Court. That effort will almost certainly also fail. But Nadezhdin has said he has a Plan B: He will ask the 200,000 people who backed his candidacy with their signatures to apply for permission to hold legal protests in 150 cities throughout the country.

The political significance of these open expressions of opposition to the war should not be underestimated. As veteran Russian political observer Abbas Gallyamov recently explained, through repression and propaganda the regime creates the impression that it is supported by the majority. “Loyalists can express their opinions openly, but critics must remain silent. So a dissatisfied person is left feeling alone … and does not see that there are many people nearby who think the same way as he does.” This is why, Gallyamov says, public acts of political dissent are so valuable. They show individuals what society actually thinks.

After Putin was elected to a third term in March 2012, tens of thousands of protesters, led by Alexei Navalny, took to the streets, greatly alarming the Kremlin. Navalny’s dissenters were largely well-educated young people protesting alleged voter fraud. Now, the threat to Putin is more ominous because the opposition includes former supporters from the working class who are unhappy over a war he started.

Putin will win his reelection in March, regardless of whether Nadezhdin is on the ballot. But that won’t put an end to the growing discontent over the war, especially if the Russian leader orders a second mobilization to throw fresh troops into the so-called meat grinder in Ukraine.

As Russian opposition politician Leonid Gozman observed, Putin’s administration might have seriously misjudged the people’s mood: “There now exists an open wound — the war in Ukraine. Whichever issue you press upon now, the pain will radiate in that wound.”

And an emboldened antiwar movement is likely to press on.

The Washington Post · by Amy Knight · February 6, 2024

10. Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities kills five, officials say

Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities kills five, officials say

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-missile-attack-kyiv-other-ukrainian-cities-ukraines-air-force-2024-02-07/?utm

By Olena Harmash and Yurii Kovalenko

February 7, 20246:53 AM ESTUpdated 7 min ago

[1/13]Local residents watch firefighters work at a site of a building damaged during a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 7, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Summary

• Ukraine says Russia fired 64 missiles and dronesSix Ukrainian regions across the country were under attackResidential buildings, energy infrastructure hit

KYIV, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Russia unleashed missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities during Wednesday morning's rush hour, killing five people, wounding more than 30, and damaging residential buildings and energy infrastructure, Ukrainian officials said.

Four people were killed when debris from a missile hit an 18-storey residential building in Golosiivskyi district in the southwest of Kyiv, causing a fire and smashing windows, officials said. One person was killed in Mykolayiv in the south.

"Another massive attack against our state. Six regions were struck by the enemy. All our services are now working to cope with the consequences of this terror," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app.

Air defences shot down 44 missiles and drones out of 64 launched by Russia in several waves, said Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine's armed forces.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, in Kyiv on a two-day visit to underline EU support for Ukraine, posted a picture on social media platform X from a shelter.

"Starting my morning in the shelter as air alarms are sounding across Kyiv," he said.

Borrell is discussing with top Ukrainian officials both EU military and financial support, as well as Kyiv's progress on reforms in its bid to join the 27-member bloc.

Kyiv city officials said at least 19 people were injured in different parts of the capital. About 40 cars and a car repair shop were damaged. Firefighters extinguished several fires.

'WE ENDURE'

Debris from a Russian missile also damaged several power lines resulting in electricity cut-offs in parts of Kyiv.

DTEK, Ukraine's private energy company, said electricity had been restored for nearly 30,000 families using reserve capacities, and repairs to power lines were underway.

The attack also damaged two gas pipelines in Mykolayiv, state energy giant Naftogaz said.

Maksym Kozytskyi, governor for the western Lviv region, said an industrial facility in the city of Drogobych was also hit.

Oleh Synehubov, governor of Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine, said Russian missiles struck non-residential infrastructure in Kharkiv city.

"We are being shelled, we endure. This is not the worst that could happen. People on the frontlines have it the worst, they have to fend off the invaders. We will definitely survive," said Vitalii Bachynskyi, 40, an IT worker, in a Kyiv metro station where he, his wife and two children had taken shelter.

"It does not break our spirit in any way. We will wait for victory."

Additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk and Sergiy Karazy; Editing by Ros Russell and Gareth Jones

11. More Than a Fifth of Hostages in Gaza Are Dead, Israel Says

More Than a Fifth of Hostages in Gaza Are Dead, Israel Says

As Israel and Hamas inch closer to a deal to free hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a cease-fire, the military disclosed that at least 30 of the captives still in Gaza have been confirmed dead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-hostages-dead.html?utm

• Share free access
• 
  

Photographs of hostages seized on Oct. 7, on a wall in Tel Aviv on Monday.Credit...Susana Vera/Reuter​s

By Ronen Bergman and Patrick Kingsley

• Feb. 6, 2024

Israel has called securing the freedom of the hostages abducted to Gaza a key goal in its war against Hamas, so many in the country were shocked on Tuesday when it emerged that at least a fifth of the captives were already dead.

The news was likely to worsen a furor in Israel, where a debate over the government’s course of action in Gaza regarding the hostages has become divisive.

Israeli intelligence officers have concluded that at least 30 of the remaining 136 hostages captured by Hamas and its allies on Oct. 7 have died since the start of the war, according to a confidential assessment that was reviewed by The New York Times.

The bodies of two other dead Israelis, killed in 2014 during a previous war between Israel and Hamas, have been held in the territory ever since, bringing the total number of slain hostages inside Gaza to at least 32.

The Israeli government late on Tuesday released a statement saying that only 31 had been confirmed dead; the discrepancy between the two numbers could not be immediately reconciled.

“We have informed 31 families that their captured loved ones are no longer among the living and that we have pronounced them dead,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the military’s chief spokesman, said Tuesday after The Times published a report about the previously undisclosed hostage deaths.

Four officials said that Israeli intelligence officers were also assessing unconfirmed information that indicated that at least 20 other hostages may have also been killed.

Some of the dead were killed inside Israel on Oct. 7. Their deaths were unconfirmed at the time and they were counted among the hostages, but their bodies were taken by Hamas to Gaza, according to two of the officials.

Others were injured during the Hamas-led assault and died of their injuries after being abducted to Gaza, the officials said. Others still, the officials added, were killed by Hamas once inside Gaza.

At least three hostages were killed by the Israeli military during its ground operations. Another was killed during a failed rescue operation. Israeli soldiers found the bodies of some hostages, intact and without external injuries, inside the warren of tunnels Hamas has dug beneath Gaza. The army has yet to clarify the causes of those deaths.

The figure of 32 deaths is higher than any previous number the Israeli authorities have publicly disclosed.

In January, some family members stormed a meeting at Israel’s Parliament to demand that lawmakers take greater action to secure the captives’ release. That protest and similar demonstrations in recent months have helped expose a societal rift between those who support making a deal with Hamas to secure the captives’ release and those who seek the militant group’s total destruction.

More than 240 hostages were captured by Hamas and its allies during the Oct. 7 raid on southern Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate with massive airstrikes and then a ground invasion. Roughly half of the hostages have been freed, almost all during a temporary truce in November, when they were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners and detainees held in Israeli jails.

Since that truce, the Israeli government has said that its military operations in Gaza would pave the way to further hostage releases. Officials have argued that every Israeli military success places Hamas under more pressure to negotiate another exchange, and makes the military better able to rescue the remaining captives by force.

But scores of survivors and families of the hostages have said that the military campaign is endangering their loved ones’ lives. They want the government to make it a priority to reach a new hostage deal instead of pressing ahead with the invasion, lest their relatives be killed in the crossfire. Only one hostage has been freed by an Israeli military rescue operation.

The debate over the hostages has become particularly acute in recent days, as negotiations over another cease-fire deal — mediated by Egypt and Qatar — have gathered momentum.

Egypt and Qatar have negotiated with the leaders of Hamas on a proposal backed by the United States that could temporarily stop the war, free the remaining hostages there in exchange for Palestinians detained in Israeli jails, and allow more food, water, medicine and other supplies into the territory.

On Tuesday, Hamas said it had received the proposal and delivered a response to the mediators, but did not elaborate.

Right-wing members of Israel’s ruling coalition have threatened to leave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if he agrees to a deal that allows Hamas to remain in power in exchange for the freedom of all the remaining hostages.

But other members of his coalition, including a centrist former general, Gadi Eisenkot, have suggested that freeing the hostages is a more important goal than further military gains, and that the two goals are mutually incompatible.

Asked for comment, the Israeli military said in a statement that it was “deploying all available resources to locate and retrieve as much information as possible regarding the hostages currently held by Hamas.”

A spokeswoman for the main alliance of hostage families, Liat Bell Sommer, said the alliance was seeking an immediate deal.

“We are aware that there are bodies in Hamas captivity. We are also aware that every day the hostages are held in Hamas tunnels is a death sentence to them,” Ms. Sommer said.

Other hostages may have also already died, but the military has yet to declare them dead because it needs to attain absolute proof before telling their families, according to Avi Kalo, who led a military intelligence department that dealt with prisoners of war and missing people.

“When it comes to the decision about whether to declare a prisoner of war, or a missing person, dead, Israeli intelligence needs 100 percent certainty,” said Mr. Kalo.

“Such a terrible message must not be conveyed except in the case of absolute and final knowledge,” he added.

The Israeli military’s assessment did not conclude that any of the dead hostages were killed in Israeli strikes. But some of the hostages freed in November have said that they fear those still in Gaza could be killed in Israeli salvos. At least one freed hostage said the relentless Israeli bombardment at times felt as menacing as the threat posed by her captors.

“Many times I told myself that, in the end, I will die from Israel’s missiles and not from Hamas,” said Sahar Kalderon, speaking in an interview last December, weeks after being released. Her father remains captured inside Gaza.

“What about my father, who has been left behind?” she said in the interview. “I ask of everyone who sees this: Please, stop this war; get all the hostages out.”

Reporting was contributed by Johnatan Reiss, Aaron Boxerman, Gabby Sobelman and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad.

Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv. His latest book is “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations,” published by Random House. More about Ronen Bergman

Patrick Kingsley is the Jerusalem bureau chief, covering Israel and the occupied territories. He has reported from more than 40 countries, written two books and previously covered migration and the Middle East for The Guardian. More about Patrick Kingsley

A version of this article appears in print on Feb. 7, 2024, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Israel Reveals Hostage Toll: 30 Are Dead. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

12. SOCOM taking innovation foundry to London to focus on special ops in ‘smart cities’

SOCOM taking innovation foundry to London to focus on special ops in ‘smart cities’

The event “will explore the challenges of physical and remote SOF operations in a range of future complex smart city scenarios,” according to SOCOM.

BY

JON HARPER

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

defensescoop.com · by Jon Harper · February 6, 2024

Personnel from U.S. Special Operations Command will be heading across the pond in April to meet with U.K. defense officials, tech experts and others to brainstorm the capabilities and concepts of operation that will be needed for conducting missions in “smart cities” of the future.

The gathering in London, dubbed Innovation Foundry 15 (IF15), will be hosted by the Tampa, Florida-based SOFWERX hub in partnership with SOCOM’s Science-and-Technology Futures Directorate and U.K. Strategic Command, which oversees the British directorate of special forces.

Selected participants from industry, academia, labs, government, futurists and other subject matter experts are expected to be on hand.

The event “will explore the challenges of physical and remote SOF operations in a range of future complex smart city scenarios,” according to a special notice published on Sam.gov.

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“The rapidly changing nature of the future operating environment will increasingly involve operations in smart, interconnected cities. More than 50% of humanity resides in cities, and by 2030 there will be more than 60 cities with populations between 5-10 million … These dense urbanities are becoming ever more complex; socially, physically, and technically,” the notice states. “This presents new challenges and opportunities for SOF operations across the full breadth of potential mission sets, in an interconnected environment where access and [maneuver] will be challenging … Virtual and physical theatre entry, combat operations, sustainment, and partnering will all require novel approaches.”

Attendees of IF15 — the latest in a series of innovation foundry events — are expected to brainstorm how technologies might be used to overcome these challenges. Participants will also be tasked to identify the investments special ops organizations need to make in the near term to set them up for success in future urban battles. After the event wraps up, SOCOM and U.K. Strategic Command may negotiate awards with contractors, according to the post.

“This Innovation Foundry is the first phase of the Innovation Cycle and will be focused on idea generation. Deliverables for the IF15 event will include preliminary capability concepts targeting the defined problem areas which may impact SOF and operations in the 2035 timeframe in interconnected smart cities. This event will be followed by 1) a Rapid Capability Assessment (RCA) to further develop the preliminary capability concepts, and 2) a series of Integrated Technology Sprints (ITS), to demonstrate proofs of concept,” per the special notice.

People with expertise in AI and machine learning; robotic and autonomous systems; advanced energy systems; communications tech; biometric systems; cyber ops; edge computing; influence operations; sensors; wearable technologies; Internet of Things; smart cities and other areas of interest, may apply.

The deadline for CV submissions is March 4. Those who make the cut will be invited to attend the confab, which is scheduled to take place April 17-19 in London.

Written by Jon Harper

Jon Harper is Managing Editor of DefenseScoop, the Scoop News Group’s newest online publication focused on the Pentagon and its pursuit of new capabilities. He leads an award-winning team of journalists in providing breaking news and in-depth analysis on military technology and the ways in which it is shaping how the Defense Department operates and modernizes. You can also follow him on Twitter @Jon_Harper_

In This Story

• SOCOM
• SOFWERX
• special operations forces
• United Kingdom

defensescoop.com · by Jon Harper · February 6, 2024

13. US, Russia clash at UN over North Korea, Patriot missiles in Ukraine

US, Russia clash at UN over North Korea, Patriot missiles in Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-russia-clash-un-over-north-korea-patriot-missiles-ukraine-2024-02-06/

By Michelle Nichols

February 6, 20244:58 PM ESTUpdated 13 hours ago

[1/2]Russian Ambassador to the U.N. Vassily Nebenzia addresses the United Nations Security Council at U.N. headquarters in New York, U.S., October 18, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Segar Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The United States accused Russia on Tuesday of firing at least nine North Korean-supplied missiles at Ukraine, while Moscow labeled Washington a "direct accomplice" in the downing of a Russian military transport plane last month.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia and deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood traded the accusations at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine, requested by Moscow. Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine nearly two years ago.

"To date, Russia has launched DPRK-supplied ballistic missiles against Ukraine on at least nine occasions," Wood told the 15-member Security Council, using the North Korea's formal name: the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

"Russia and the DPRK must be held accountable for their actions, which undermine long-standing obligations under UN Security Council resolutions," he said.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the U.S. accusations, but vowed last year to deepen military relations. Russia has stepped up ties with North Korea and other countries hostile to the United States such as Iran since the start of the war with Ukraine - relations that are a source of concern to the West.

A Russian Air Force Il-76 fell from the skies on Jan. 24. Russia said all 74 people on board, including 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers en route to be swapped for Russian prisoners of war, were killed, and blamed Kyiv for downing the plane.

"We possess irrefutable evidence that a Patriot surface-to-air missile was used to carry out the strike, which leaves no doubt the Washington is a direct accomplice in this crime as well," Nebenzia told the Security Council.

Russian investigators said last week that they had evidence showing that Ukraine's military shot down the military transport plane with U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

Russia asked the council to meet on Tuesday after it said Ukraine killed at least 28 people when it used Western-supplied rockets to strike a bakery and restaurant on Saturday in Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine.

Senior Ukrainian U.N. diplomat Serhii Dvornyk accused Russia of misusing the Security Council "for disseminating fakes."

Wood said the U.S. was unable to independently verify the information - blaming an absence of independent media reporting - but laments all civilian casualties. He added: "To be clear, Russia is the only aggressor in this war, and the only one that could end this war today."

Reporting by Michelle Nichols; additional reporting by Ronald Popeski; editing by Jonathan Oatis

14. ​Why Americans Are So Down on a Strong Economy

The convergence of the economy, national security, politics, and uncertainty

Excerpts:

What upsets her, she said, is that the government continues to spend money while racking up blunders, such as the botched withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. None of that instills confidence in leaders’ ability to handle other complex issues.

“I feel like no matter what they tell me about the economy, they don’t really know, because they don’t have a coherent plan,” she said. 

...

“The politicians seem to be making out really good and then everybody else is struggling,” said Funck, who is 52 and an independent voter who backed Biden in 2020. She earns about $90,000 a year, had her student loans forgiven after two decades, and has no children to support. Still, she constantly fears she’ll be derailed by an unexpected expense, and worries that the wars in Gaza and Ukraine could push up the prices of oil and grain. 

After her mortgage and car payments, groceries and utility bills, there’s very little left over, she said. She’s prioritized saving for retirement “because I’m not expecting Social Security to be around, and I have to be able to support myself.” 

...

“A lot of people go to college and either don’t work in their degree field or get a lot of debt for a job that doesn’t have the ability to make very much money,” Bos said.

Some 78% of Americans said they aren’t confident their children’s lives will be better than their own, a Journal-NORC survey found last year. That’s a record in surveys dating to 1990. Only 36% said the American dream—the idea that anyone can get ahead with hard work—still holds true, down from 53% who had said so about a decade earlier, another Journal-NORC poll found.

...

By statistically “adjusting the decibel level’’ so that the two parties cheer equally, they found that about 30% of the gap between consumer sentiment and what would be predicted by the economic data could be explained by what they called “asymmetric amplification” of consumer sentiment according to a person’s political party.

In a complementary study, two Brookings Institution analysts found that news about the economy reported in legacy news media—big-city papers such as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal—has been more negative than what would be predicted by actual measures of the economy.

...

“You have this political instability, a world that is very unstable, with this economic uncertainty,’’ said Arguello, who is originally from Nicaragua. He considers himself right-of-center politically and would vote reluctantly for Trump this year if he is the GOP nominee.

“What people are sensing is not whether the inflation is becoming moderate,” he said. “It’s that the dark clouds remain.”

​Why Americans Are So Down on a Strong Economy

Many feel their long-term financial security is vulnerable to wide-ranging social and political threats

By Aaron ZitnerFollow

, Amara OmeokweFollow

, Rachel WolfeFollow

 and Rachel Louise EnsignFollow

Feb. 7, 2024 12:01 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/economy/economy-inflation-consumer-spending-unemployment-e6856381?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Clayton Wiles, a truck driver in North Carolina, earns about 20% more than three years ago. Kristine Funck, a nurse in Ohio, has won steady pay raises, built retirement savings and owns her home. Alfredo Arguello, who opened a restaurant outside Nashville when the pandemic hit, now owns a second one and employs close to 50 people.

But ask any of them about the state of the American economy, and the same gloominess surfaces. “Unstable” is how Arguello describes it. Said Funck: “Even though I’m OK right now, there’s a sense it could all go away in a second.”  

There’s a striking disconnect between the widely shared pessimism among Americans and measures that show the economy is actually robust. Consumers are spending briskly—behavior that suggests optimism, not retrenchment. Inflation has tempered. Unemployment has been below 4% for 24 straight months, the longest such stretch since the 1960s.

The disconnect has puzzled economists, investors and business owners. But press Americans harder, and the immediate economy emerges as only one factor in the gloomy outlook. Americans feel sour about the economy, many say, because their long-term financial security feels fragile and vulnerable to wide-ranging social and political threats.

Reliable steps up the economic ladder, such as a college degree, no longer look like a good investment. War overseas, and an emboldened set of hostile nations, have made the world feel dangerous. Uninspiring leaders at home, running a government widely seen as dysfunctional, have left people without hope that America is up to the challenge of fixing its problems.

The broad reasons for America’s dim outlook suggest that even further improvement in the economy might not be enough to lift the nation’s mood. In an election year, that is shaping up as one of President Biden’s biggest impediments to winning a second term. He has received little credit so far for an economy that has foiled predictions of a recession and instead grew 3.1% in the past year, far ahead of the pace in 2022.

By some metrics, that improvement is starting to give way to slightly rosier views of the economy. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, recently posted the biggest two-month increase since 1991. Yet it remains about 20% lower than during the robust economy of early 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic started, and it stands at about levels typically seen at the end of a recession rather than in an economy posting solid growth.

Interviews with Americans across the country—some affluent, some just scraping by; some with advanced degrees and others with blue-collar jobs; some Republican, some Democrat—show they are weighed down by fears of an unpredictable world in which no one in government or business is competent to steer the nation through precarious times.

“You could argue unemployment is 3.7%, but who cares with this level of uncertainty?” said Arguello. “Because that’s what people are feeling. They’re not feeling hope. They’re not feeling one country. They’re feeling a divisive, divided United States of America.”

No ‘coherent plan’

Theresa Foster estimates her family’s net worth is up because the value of their home in suburban Albany, N.Y., has risen around 20% since the pandemic started. “But every time I go to the store I am shocked by the prices,” said Foster, who earns more than $200,000 combined with her husband’s income. “I feel like we’re on really thin ice, that it’s really fragile, that neither political party has any theoretical foundation for what they want to do with the economy.”

Foster, 57, earned a master’s degree on GI Bill benefits and works part time at a nonprofit, while her husband works full time in human resources. To her, the notion that cooling inflation should ease her financial worries is akin to telling a person who is bleeding out that the flow of blood has slowed. 

What upsets her, she said, is that the government continues to spend money while racking up blunders, such as the botched withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. None of that instills confidence in leaders’ ability to handle other complex issues.

“I feel like no matter what they tell me about the economy, they don’t really know, because they don’t have a coherent plan,” she said. 

'I feel like we’re on really thin ice,' said Theresa Foster, with her husband, David Foster.

CINDY SCHULTZ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The coming election has left her dispirited about the likely nominees, President Biden and Donald Trump, whom she calls “Loser 1 and Loser 2.” Foster voted libertarian in the last two presidential elections in protest and was registered independent until she recently registered as a Republican to vote against Trump in New York’s presidential primary in April.

Funck, the nurse in Milford, Ohio, said she sees the country’s decline in the high number of uninsured and unhoused patients whom she cares for at a large Cincinnati medical center.

“The politicians seem to be making out really good and then everybody else is struggling,” said Funck, who is 52 and an independent voter who backed Biden in 2020. She earns about $90,000 a year, had her student loans forgiven after two decades, and has no children to support. Still, she constantly fears she’ll be derailed by an unexpected expense, and worries that the wars in Gaza and Ukraine could push up the prices of oil and grain. 

After her mortgage and car payments, groceries and utility bills, there’s very little left over, she said. She’s prioritized saving for retirement “because I’m not expecting Social Security to be around, and I have to be able to support myself.” 

Economic cracks

While many groups of Americans have made gains during the pandemic recovery, some cracks have emerged. 

Americans in lower-paying industries saw some of the strongest pay raises in recent years, but wage growth is now slowing overall, and more so for these workers. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that low-income households disproportionately bear the brunt of inflation, in part because of the high share of their income that goes toward food, gas and rent. 

While inflation has cooled substantially from its peak in 2022, wage growth only began to outpace price increases in mid-2023, meaning many Americans are still reeling from a long stretch in which it felt like their earnings couldn’t go far enough.

Pace of Prices

Consumer spending growth, which mirrored price growth in 2022, has remained hot as inflation has slowed.

Change from a year earlier

16

%

Spending surged in 2021, compared to sharp pandemic pullbacks a year earlier.

14

12

Amid the demand

rebound and tight

supply chains, prices

rose sharply through

the end of 2021

and beginning

of 2022.

Inflation has slowed since 2023,

though spending has not

slowed as quickly

as prices.

10

Rising wages are now driving more spending growth.

8

6

4

2

0

June

2021

'22

'23

'24

Note: Spending is change in seasonally adjusted annualized consumer spending. Wages are seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings for private workers. Prices are unadjusted consumer price index for all items for urban consumers.

Sources: Commerce Department (spending), Labor Department (wages, prices) via St. Louis Fed

The unemployment rate remains at near-record lows, but layoffs have hit some sectors of the economy with force, including technology and some other white-collar fields, such as accounting and media. 

James Welch, a married father of two, moved his family from Atlanta to Plano, Texas, to take a job as a manager at an online fitness company after he was laid off early in the pandemic from a hotel company. Last July, he was laid off again.

Welch, 49, said he’s depleted close to $450,000 in retirement and emergency savings in recent years to fund the move, medical expenses and costs for two children in college. His wife’s salary of roughly $72,000 annually as an operations manager is keeping the family afloat. 

Welch said he thinks he was the victim of cost-cutting moves at the company. He said shortly after he was laid off, he saw his job reposted for lower pay. 

James Welch with his wife, Taña, and children, Alexander and Gabrielle. PHOTO: DORLY ROY/GOLDENLIGHT CREATIVE

Mood mismatch

To many economists, the negative outlook doesn’t reflect the current economic life of most Americans. “There’s some justification for some negativity about the economy, but nothing resembling the amount of negativity seen in some of the survey data,’’ said Jason Furman, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama.

Furman said that, historically, inflation and unemployment levels have been predictors of consumer sentiment, and that the recent spate of rising prices had unsettled consumers. “It’s just not a good enough reason for them to be as down on the economy as they say they are,” he said. 

Many Americans point to structural changes in the economy that have left them anxious about the future. The decline of company pensions has shifted more of the risk of funding retirement from employers to workers. And many who once thought they could count on a college degree as a ticket into the middle class now question its value. 

Amy Bos, 44, a married mother of three in Jackson, Mich., said she wouldn’t necessarily recommend college for her 18-year-old daughter. Bos herself returned to college in her 30s to help her upgrade from a job as a pharmacy technician to higher-paying work in human resources, which roughly doubled her pay to $30 an hour. But she said she sacrificed immensely to pay off $41,000 in student loans, which she did only recently.

“A lot of people go to college and either don’t work in their degree field or get a lot of debt for a job that doesn’t have the ability to make very much money,” Bos said.

Some 78% of Americans said they aren’t confident their children’s lives will be better than their own, a Journal-NORC survey found last year. That’s a record in surveys dating to 1990. Only 36% said the American dream—the idea that anyone can get ahead with hard work—still holds true, down from 53% who had said so about a decade earlier, another Journal-NORC poll found.

In Wilmington, N.C., the Wiles family feels like they’re sliding backward financially despite pay raises and frugal habits. 

Clayton, 44 years old, makes $10,000 more than he did three years ago in his job as a tow-truck driver, bringing the family’s annual income to $58,000. But the Wiles can’t afford to fix their broken-down truck and plan to draw from modest retirement savings to pay for health insurance for their two children when they lose Medicaid eligibility this year. 

Haleigh and Clayton Wiles feel like they’re sliding backward financially despite pay raises and frugal habits.

ALLISON JOYCE FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (3)

Haleigh, 30, is in school to become a teacher, but worries that even the addition of an extra salary won’t enable them to start saving for a down payment on a house. 

The combination of higher borrowing costs and higher home prices has made buying a home much less affordable. New 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, though down about a percentage point from last fall, are close to 7%, compared with under 3% three years ago. The increase in rates means a borrower typically has to pay hundreds of dollars more a month for a house that costs the same.  

“I don’t think the American dream still exists,’’ said Haleigh. “I don’t think it’s attainable anymore. Because you need money to make money, and I think you either start out ahead or you’re constantly playing catch-up now.”

Political skew

One factor in the downbeat outlook is that many Americans view the economy through a political lens. Their opinion is more optimistic when the party of their choice holds the White House.

In the weeks before the 2016 election, only 11% of Republicans rated the economy as excellent or good, CNBC polling found. That jumped to 26% right after the election, even before Donald Trump was sworn in as president, and rose to 73% within a year. By contrast, Democratic views of the economy turned more negative over the same period.

Some analysts find signs that the partisan skew in views of the economy is particularly powerful now, with Biden in the White House, because Republicans are more likely than Democrats to adopt a negative view when their party is out of power.

“We find that Republicans cheer louder when their party is in control and boo louder when their party is out of control,’’ wrote Stanford University economics professor Neale Mahoney, who held White House positions under Biden and Obama, and Ryan Cummings, a Ph.D. student, in a November Substack posting.

By statistically “adjusting the decibel level’’ so that the two parties cheer equally, they found that about 30% of the gap between consumer sentiment and what would be predicted by the economic data could be explained by what they called “asymmetric amplification” of consumer sentiment according to a person’s political party.

In a complementary study, two Brookings Institution analysts found that news about the economy reported in legacy news media—big-city papers such as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal—has been more negative than what would be predicted by actual measures of the economy.

Kristine Funck, with her father, John Funck, fears she’ll be derailed by an unexpected expense. PHOTO: FUNCK FAMILY

The San Francisco Fed’s index of daily news sentiment, which measures the positive or negative outlook of economic stories in news publications, had correlated well for several decades with measures of unemployment, gross domestic product, inflation and stock prices, according to research by Ben Harris, who was the top economist in the Biden administration’s Treasury Department, and Aaron Sojourner. But in 2018, news sentiment turned more negative than the economic fundamentals, and the negativity gap has widened during the Biden administration.

The study didn’t include broadcast media, such as Fox News or MSNBC, that are widely seen as tilted toward one party or the other. Nor did it prove that negative news caused lower consumer sentiment.

Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said that the economy as people experience it in their daily lives explains most of the disconnect. While he sees some mismatch between sentiment and economic fundamentals, he believes that the corrosive impact of inflation accounts for much of it given its broad reach and because people became accustomed to very small price increases in recent years.

“When people say they don’t feel good about the economy, we should believe them,” Strain said.

‘Dark clouds’

Arguello, the Nashville-area restaurant owner, got into the food-service industry in May 2020, early in the pandemic. After ending a 30-year career at 

General Electric, where he was most recently a senior executive, the 65-year-old decided to buy and operate a burger franchise with his son, a recent college graduate, as a way to teach him how to run a business while deepening his own roots in his community after years of travel.The Mooyah burger franchise they opened was successful enough that they opened a second location. Fourth-quarter revenues in 2023 were 15% higher than in the prior year, Arguello said.

Alfredo Arguello talked with customers, top, and helped in the kitchen at one of his two Mooyah burger franchises outside Nashville.

STACY KRANITZ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (3)

Despite his personal success, Arguello said he believes that “the light at the end of the tunnel is not there yet” for a nation emerging from the pandemic and its high-inflation trauma. Many other nearby restaurants have recently closed, he said, and more broadly, he’s concerned that America is suffering because political leaders are putting their party’s needs above the country’s. 

“You have this political instability, a world that is very unstable, with this economic uncertainty,’’ said Arguello, who is originally from Nicaragua. He considers himself right-of-center politically and would vote reluctantly for Trump this year if he is the GOP nominee.

“What people are sensing is not whether the inflation is becoming moderate,” he said. “It’s that the dark clouds remain.”

Illustration at the top of the story: The Wall Street Journal, Allison Joyce for The Wall Street Journal (2), Stacy Kranitz for The Wall Street Journal.

Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com, Amara Omeokwe at amara.omeokwe@wsj.com, Rachel Wolfe at rachel.wolfe@wsj.com and Rachel Louise Ensign at Rachel.Ensign@wsj.com

15. Army wants more tech feedback from deployed units for new 'transforming in contact' concept

I think this concept has merit. If we wait for R&D and the acquisition process, and new equipment training, and updating DOTMLPF, we will continue to field obsolete equipment using obsolete concepts. It surely seems like Ukraine has been transforming in contact. The troops in contact know what is necessary to transform in contact to be successful. (not that I really think actual troops in contact fighting for their lives are going to be thinking about transforming - but they surely will after the battle - the formal and informal AARs that take place are a wealth of knowledge based on actual practical experience.). And of course transforming in contact encompasses much more than troops in contact with actual fighting - it involves training and other deployments as described below. I think this could lead to more practical transformation versus the normal theoretical transformation that is based on the dreams of researchers in laboratories. (though we do still need some of that theoretical transformation - we have to find the right balance)

Army wants more tech feedback from deployed units for new 'transforming in contact' concept

Under a new effort called "transforming in contact," the Army will be allowing deployed units to tweak equipment and experiment with new gear.

BY

MARK POMERLEAU

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

defensescoop.com · by Mark Pomerleau · February 6, 2024

The Army wants to tweak units’ equipment and configurations while they’re deployed, gaining important real-world feedback on certain technologies.

Under an emerging concept dubbed “transforming in contact,” the service aims to allow formations in theater to be able to make adjustments to their setup, as opposed to having to wait until they come back to the United States for newer gear, according to its top officer.

The pace of future conflicts will be much faster, meaning troops will not only have to move more quickly on the battlefield itself to avoid being killed, but the rate of counteraction to tactics and technology will require new equipment on faster timelines. The service wants to use unit rotations to help determine what technologies and configurations its forces will need.

“It’s a really busy Army. We know we’re going to have to make some adjustments,” Gen. Randy George, chief of staff of the Army, said during an appearance at AUSA Tuesday.

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He explained that Europe and the Pacific will be great places to learn how certain technologies and capabilities are being used rather than waiting for soldiers to return to their home stations. He cited unmanned aerial systems and electronic warfare tools as examples.

“Typically, everybody would say, ‘Hey, I have this window when I’m back in the States, and this is when I’m going to transform,’” he said. “I know that we can actually do that in Europe while we’re over there. Actually, we can test things in a new environment, in a different environment. What we’re doing with small UAS, what we’re doing with EW we can, actually, working with our allies and partners and doing all of that, that’s an adjustment that we’re making based on the realities of the fact that the Army is very busy.”

The feedback that big Army is seeking from these units is what types of gear certain formations need. George noted that each unit — from an artillery battalion to a cavalry squadron — would require different equipment, explicitly mentioning electronic warfare.

Officials in the past have explained that there won’t be a one-size-fits-all solution for electronic warfare, tailoring for echelon and region.

George noted that some of these adjustments will apply to a wide range of technology.

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“We are selecting some brigades that we are actually going to do what we’re calling transforming in contact … We’re going to adjust the network inside those formations. We’re going to give them the UAS, the small UAS that they have inside of those formations. We’re going to add EW capability inside of those formations. We’re looking at adding robotics,” he said.

In a podcast published Monday, George noted that Army units can use deployments or exercises to adjust the network architecture.

“What can we do to adjust their network and to slim their network down, make it more lean, make them more lower signature, make them more mobile? Same thing with providing them the ability to have small UAS off the shelf. This gets back to working with companies. Give them additional EW capability, provide them loitering munitions,” he said. “We’re going to do that in Europe, we’re going to do that out in the Pacific and let units adjust … We get bottom up refinements and then we’re going to do that here stateside in CONUS inside Forces Command.”

The Army has sought to make its network more mobile, agile and adaptable, allowing units to tailor certain capabilities as needed.

George has already observed progress in how the Army has improved its network architecture, enabling units to be more mobile on the battlefield, He bluntly asserted that commanders at echelon believe the network has to be a number one priority because everything they do across all warfighting functions depends on the network.

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During recent visits to the National Training Center, George said the 1st Armored Division had five vehicles, an RF shield, small drones to provide detection and some protection, and a command-and-control node that could be moved in five minutes.

“That’s where we need to be. It was very low signature,” George said. “You don’t want everybody to say, ‘Hey, that’s the division [tactical operations center] that’s on the battlefield.’ … You don’t want to be seen. You want to blend into the environment.”

Written by Mark Pomerleau

Mark Pomerleau is a reporter for DefenseScoop, covering information warfare and cyberspace.

defensescoop.com · by Mark Pomerleau · February 6, 2024

16. North Korean ballistic missiles used in 9 attacks on Ukraine

I would like to know the effectiveness of the attacks? Were they engaged by any missile defense systems (and were other attacks successfully defended against using missile defense systems)

North Korean ballistic missiles used in 9 attacks on Ukraine

global.espreso.tv

This was stated by Robert Wood, Alternate Representative for Special Political Affairs for the United Nations in the United States, as reported by Suspilne.

Wood stated that Russia and North Korea must be held accountable for their actions, violating UN Security Council resolutions, and that these illicit arms transfers and potential technology exchanges from Russia to North Korea jeopardize regional stability, and the global non-proliferation regime, and erode confidence in the Security Council.

He emphasized Russia as the sole aggressor in the conflict and urged it to end the war immediately. Ukraine is committed to pursuing a just and lasting peace in line with UN Charter principles.

• Recent reports from Vadym Skibitskyi revealed that North Korea delivered around one million 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells to Russia.
• Conflict Armament Research (CAR) independently confirmed that the missile used in the January 2 attack on Kharkiv originated from North Korea.
• Kyrylo Budanov later disclosed Russia's plans to negotiate with North Korea for increased arms supplies, with a particular emphasis on ammunition.

global.espreso.tv

17. Companies and Universities Can Help Reverse Military Recruiting Shortfalls Threatening America's National Security

Companies and Universities Can Help Reverse Military Recruiting Shortfalls Threatening America's National Security

Military.com | By James R. Schenck and Kathleen T. Jabs

Published February 06, 2024 at 9:47am ET

military.com · February 6, 2024

The opinions expressed in this op-ed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Military.com. If you would like to submit your own commentary, please send your article to opinions@military.com for consideration.

Military recruiting shortfalls threaten our national security during a critical time as two wars that could quickly escalate are being waged.

Why aren't high school and college students today considering a career or even a term in the military? As veterans of the Army and Navy, we know the value of service and the diverse skills and backgrounds of our fellow service members, including people from every community, ethnicity and economic status, united in their commitment to support and defend the United States.

The Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard all missed their recruiting targets last year, while the Marine Corps and Space Force narrowly met theirs. The National Guard is seeing shortages at all ranks and in all states.

Employers and universities can help address our recruiting shortfalls by providing transition assistance to those who have served our nation. We need to ensure young people feel confident about their military training and service and highlight how it leads to quality post-military careers and the opportunity to attend college and earn a first or advanced degree.

More young people will take the step to join and serve when they understand how incredibly valuable military service is for personal and professional development.

Wherever they are assigned -- in a helicopter squadron, on a ship, or as part of a cyber or drone crew -- today's military members learn new cutting-edge skills. They learn hard technical skills required for their position, and the more nuanced soft skills that are critical in today's competitive workplaces. Military service members know how to plan, be flexible, reliable, dependable and accountable. They also know how to work as part of a team.

Integrity, discipline and the ability to get along with others are not buzzwords when you're living in close quarters and training to fight and defend your country. These are the ethos of military service and the values that give life purpose, meaning, focus and direction.

By the time a service member decides to leave the military, they have experienced and practiced different leadership styles and been assigned tremendous responsibility for people and equipment, often under arduous conditions and in austere and even hostile environments. They have an ingrained sense of purpose and commitment to mission success that is in their DNA.

These experiences don't often translate into neat resumé bullets. It can be hard to summarize acquired skills and experiences, as well as articulate value and grit, especially when automation and keywords drive a talent search. That's why it's important for corporations and universities to build military talent connection pipelines.

With the right coaching, mentorship, education and training on how to apply their skills to new environments, veterans have the potential to transform companies and communities. As leaders, we can set goals to accelerate veteran transition, provide avenues to launch veterans on corporate career pathways, and build a mentorship pipeline between C-suite leaders and transitioning military members.

Forming partnerships to stake out pathways for veterans is one way to highlight the value of military service as well as to improve corporate bottom lines and talent pools. We can inspire the next round of military recruits and encourage support for their decision to join with an even brighter future following their service.

At PenFed, our Military Employment Program offers comprehensive support for transitioning service members and their families. At William & Mary, we have developed a specialized Veteran to Executive Transition (VET) class for high-performing transitioning military members.

As Americans, we have a shared interest in maintaining a strong military to ensure our national defense. As leaders at corporations and universities, we have the power to inspire the next generation of young people who will defend our freedom and continue to serve as leaders throughout their careers. Military talent brings incredible value to our organizations, and we encourage leaders to support and hire our nation's veterans. It's both an investment in your institution and our national security.

-- James R. Schenck is the president and CEO of PenFed Credit Union and CEO of the PenFed Foundation. He is a U.S. Military Academy graduate and served as a Black Hawk helicopter pilot in the U.S. Army.

-- Kathleen T. Jabs is special assistant to the president for military and veterans affairs at William & Mary. The former acting secretary of veterans and defense affairs for the Commonwealth of Virginia, she is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate and retired Navy captain.

military.com · February 6, 2024

18. Stop letting Iran hide behind its proxies and strike them head-on

Excerpts:

Beyond targeting Tehran’s proxies and IRGC facilities, the United States should target the IRGC’s officers, military capabilities, economic interests, and logistics network that sends weaponry to its proxies. Bolstering deterrence will also require ending messages of reluctance to use military force, clear signals that the United States will continue hitting IRGC targets so long as its attacks continue, and rapid, unpredictable targeting to ensure Iran-backed fighters cannot evade U.S. strikes. 

Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Defense should ensure that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has sufficient air defense assets, tactics, techniques and procedures in place to prevent another Iranian projectile from hitting American troops. With initial reports indicating that the Iranian drone approached its target at the same time that a U.S. drone was returning to the base in Jordan, CENTCOM will need to ensure it can adequately distinguish friend from foe and has the capabilities to neutralize Iranian drones, rockets, and missiles. 

The United States has engaged in an occasional tit-for-tat with the Iranian regime’s proxies as Tehran has waged a concerted strategy of proxy warfare. If the United States does not impose prohibitive costs on the Iranian puppet master, its puppets’ aggression will only get deadlier. 

Stop letting Iran hide behind its proxies and strike them head-on

BY JOHN W. MILLER AND ARI CICUREL, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS - 02/06/24 12:00 PM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4449403-stop-letting-iran-hide-behind-its-proxies-and-strike-them-head-on/?utm

With U.S. strikes against Iran-linked targets on Feb. 2, President Biden attempted to fulfill his vow to “hold all those responsible to account” for a Jan. 28 drone attack on a U.S. outpost in Jordan by Iran-backed militia that killed three U.S. service members and injured at least 40 more.

But the United States has been trying to stop Iran’s metastasizing aggression for three months without success. This is because its strikes — including those on Feb. 2 — largely have allowed Iran to hide behind its proxies.

If the U.S. hopes to deter Iran from endangering — and killing — more Americans, the United States needs a strategy that addresses the source of the problem by striking Iran directly to degrade the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) military capabilities, economic interests, and ability to transfer weapons, training, and direct military assistance to proxies. 

The U.S. strikes on Feb. 2 hit 85 targets at 7 locations in Iraq and Syria and killed approximately 40 people, making them significantly stronger and deadlier than previous U.S. efforts to degrade or deter Iran-linked forces. Since Oct. 17, Iran-backed groups have launched at least 169 attacks that have left 120 injured, yet the United States has conducted only eleven airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in an attempt to degrade the capabilities of Iranian proxies and deter further attacks.

While both President Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin indicated that the strikes on Feb. 2 were only the start of a “multi-tiered response,” delaying them for five days limited their effectiveness by enabling Iran-linked fighters to vacate their facilities. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s public messaging that it does “not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else” undermined the deterrent value of U.S. airstrikes, as did similar statements after previous strikes. 

Indeed, not fearing the U.S. response, Iran-backed militia have continued to launch multiple attacks against U.S. personnel after the deadly Jan. 28 attack and have already launched multiple attacks against U.S. personnel since the U.S. strikes on Feb. 2. 

There is little reason to believe that whatever action the United States is planning next will have a different effect. Previous limited U.S. strikes merely provoked further attacks. At best, they caused the Iranian regime merely to move its attacks elsewhere.

Just as the United States shifted from targeting Iran-backed groups in Syria to striking in Iraq in late Nov. 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated on another front. They have since conducted approximately 60 attacks on ships in nearby waterways, particularly the southern Red Sea. Six days after the United States began hitting the Houthis in Yemen, Iran-backed groups attacked U.S. forces in Jordan on Jan. 28, the first time its attacks struck Jordan or killed U.S. troops since the escalation began. 

When asked whether U.S. strikes have succeeded, President Biden said, “Are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.” 

The failure of limited strikes against Iran-backed groups should not be surprising. The same approach failed to produce deterrence from 2021 to early 2023.

Iran-backed militia conducted roughly 90 attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria between January 2021 and March 2023. Yet, the United States only launched four rounds of airstrikes targeting those groups over that period and none against their benefactors in Iran. This U.S. approach only serves to validate Iran’s proxy strategy, reassuring it that it can continue attacking the United States and its interests and partners without triggering blowback against itself.  

Unlike the United States, Israel has targeted the Islamic Republic of Iran officials and assets, including the IRGC, which organizes Iranian proxies. Under former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Israel began what it calls an “Octopus Doctrine” to target the Iranian regime as the head of the octopus for the aggression of its tentacles — the proxies. On Dec. 25, a reportedly Israeli airstrike in Syria killed the IRGC brigadier general responsible for coordinating with the Syrian military and acting as a key weapons proliferator to Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

It is past time for the United States to also strike the head of the octopus. Establishing deterrence will require the United States to use stronger, faster, more frequent, and more persistent military force against targets in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and — most importantly — Iran.

Beyond targeting Tehran’s proxies and IRGC facilities, the United States should target the IRGC’s officers, military capabilities, economic interests, and logistics network that sends weaponry to its proxies. Bolstering deterrence will also require ending messages of reluctance to use military force, clear signals that the United States will continue hitting IRGC targets so long as its attacks continue, and rapid, unpredictable targeting to ensure Iran-backed fighters cannot evade U.S. strikes. 

Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Defense should ensure that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has sufficient air defense assets, tactics, techniques and procedures in place to prevent another Iranian projectile from hitting American troops. With initial reports indicating that the Iranian drone approached its target at the same time that a U.S. drone was returning to the base in Jordan, CENTCOM will need to ensure it can adequately distinguish friend from foe and has the capabilities to neutralize Iranian drones, rockets, and missiles. 

The United States has engaged in an occasional tit-for-tat with the Iranian regime’s proxies as Tehran has waged a concerted strategy of proxy warfare. If the United States does not impose prohibitive costs on the Iranian puppet master, its puppets’ aggression will only get deadlier. 

Retired U.S. VADM John W. Miller served as Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT)/Commander, U.S. Fifth Fleet and was a participant on the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s (JINSA) 2018 Generals and Admirals Program. Ari Cicurel is the assistant director of foreign policy at JINSA. 

TAGS HEZBOLLAH HOUTHIS STRIKES JOE BIDEN POLITICS OF IRAN POLITICS OF THE UNITED STATES PROXY WARS US-IRAN TENSIONS

19. America Has Never Had So Many 65-Year-Olds. They’re Redefining the Milestone.

​My cohort. Already reached this milestone last year.

America Has Never Had So Many 65-Year-Olds. They’re Redefining the Milestone.

A record number of people will turn 65 this year. Here’s how they are distinct from their predecessors.

https://www.wsj.com/health/america-has-never-had-so-many-65-year-olds-theyre-redefining-the-milestone-4383e769?mod=hp_featst_pos3

By Clare AnsberryFollow

Feb. 6, 2024 9:00 pm ET

More Americans are turning 65 this year than any prior time in history.  

Today’s 65-year-olds are redefining a milestone long associated with retirement parties and the end of productive years. They are wealthier and by many measures, healthier, and expected to live another 20 years. A growing share are divorced. Many turn their focus to what they want in this next stage. 

“Being 65 is not just thinking about who you were, but what you might become in a new chapter,” says Ken Dychtwald, CEO of Age Wave, a California-based consulting firm specializing in aging-related issues. 

Our own parents and grandparents, he says, weren’t typically thinking of new ventures and possibilities at 65. “They were winding down,” he says.  

About 4.1 million Americans will reach 65 years old this year, reaching a surge that will continue through 2027, according to an analysis by Jason Fichtner, executive director of the Retirement Income Institute and chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center. That is about 11,200 a day, compared with the 10,000 daily average from the previous decade, he says. 

Robin Darrow, vice president of sales and marketing at Scentrifugal Events, turns 65 in a few months but has no plans to retire because she loves her work and also can’t afford to retire. Darrow, who lives in the Philadelphia area, helped found the company in 2016, which offers “create your own fragrance” events at meetings and celebrations. 

‘I love my job and business. Even if I could financially afford to retire, I wouldn’t,’ says Robin Darrow. PHOTO: ROBIN DARROW

“I’m not winding down. I’m just starting,” she says.

Working longer

Nearly 20% of Americans 65 and older were employed in 2023, which is nearly double the share of those who were working 35 years ago, according to a recent report from the Pew Research Center.  

“More are working and tending to work more hours,” says Richard Fry, a senior researcher at Pew, who conducted the study. Close to two-thirds of 65 and older employees are working full time, compared with nearly half in 1987, he says. They’re earning more, too, with average hourly pay reaching $22 an hour in 2023, up from $13 an hour in inflation adjusted dollars in 1987, according to the Pew report.

Many in this age group are working because they need the money now, or want to build a bigger retirement reserve so they don’t outlive their savings, says AARP’s Carly Roszkowski. They also enjoy their work, and the opportunity for ongoing learning and social connections, she says.

More wealth

Today’s 65-year-olds are wealthier than their predecessors. While significant disparities exist, the median net worth of those 65 to 74 was $410,000 in 2022, up from $282,270 in 2010 in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances. 

“This is one of the untold success stories of the modern economy: There is a lot more wealth as people enter retirement,” says Ben Harris, director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the U.S. Treasury Department.  

Some of that 45% increase in net worth reflects rising values of homes and retirement accounts. Not all baby boomers have fared as well: Those 75 and older had a 13% gain in median net worth over the same period. 

Today’s 65-year-olds have more to spend now, but fewer have pensions that offer protected monthly income. They have to depend on savings, investments and Social Security to last, and cover expected rising caregiving costs, says Fichtner, with the Bipartisan Policy Center. 

Mark Emerson, 65 of Watertown, N.Y., retired last year after a 40-year-career as a diesel- truck mechanic, first as a small-business owner and then with a large logistics company. He has retirement savings, but would have had more if he spent his entire career with the logistics firm, which had a company retirement savings program. 

Still he says has done relatively well. His parents lived comfortably into their 80s on a small pension and Social Security, but “we’re better off financially than they were,” says Emerson, who has a summer cottage on Lake Ontario and a fishing boat.

Active lifestyles

A greater share of 65-year-olds reported meeting federal physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic activity a week and strength training in 2018 than in 1998, according to researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Staying active and muscle strengthening can help reduce the risks of falls, cardiovascular disease, depression and Alzheimer’s disease.

Gina McRae, an administrative coordinator for a consulting business, turned 65 in early February. Every weekday morning at about 7 a.m., McRae turns on her TV and works out for about 30 to 45 minutes with SeniorShape or other YouTube instructors, alternating between strength, aerobics and yoga in her Beltsville, Md., basement. 

Gina McRae, who just turned 65, exercises each weekday morning before work alternating between aerobics, strength training and yoga. PHOTO: GINA MCRAE

Her routine began in 2019 in part to lose weight and also because she wanted to be more active than her mom, whose exercise consisted of yard work. “I’m in better shape than she was at 65,” she says.

Living single

The divorce rate among people 65 and older has more than tripled since 1990, says sociologist Susan Brown, co-director of the National Center for Family and Marriage Research at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. 

It isn’t clear why a larger share of 65-year-olds are getting divorced, but it could be partly the result of longevity.

Today’s 65-year-olds can reasonably expect to live another 20 years and might not want to spend it in an unhappy marriage, says Brown. They often end up living alone, although not everyone can afford doing so. 

“Americans prize independence and autonomy,” she says. 

A higher purpose 

Having a purpose matters more than having youthfulness among people 50 and older, according to a Harris Poll survey conducted for Age Wave. It’s good for our health: It can lower the risk of Alzheimer’s disease, heart disease and stroke and can make people happier.

“A lot of people are thinking forward. What am I going to do? Where am I going to live? How can I have a legacy?” says Age Wave’s Dychtwald.

Craig Pampeyan, who turns 65 in May, retired last year from the tech industry where he spent his 40-year career. He’s not done yet. He received an Encore Fellowship, which matches seasoned professionals with social impact organizations. Pampeyan, who had been a Cub Scout and Eagle Scout, was paired with Boy Scouts of America to help with strategy and planning. 

Craig Pampeyan, whose son, James, earned Eagle Scout rank, is now doing an Encore Fellowship with the Boy Scouts after retiring from a 40-year career in the tech industry. PHOTO: CRAIG PAMPEYAN

“I had to figure out how to get engaged for the next chapter of my life,” says Pampeyan, who lives in Los Altos, Calif. After his fellowship ends in November, he expects to continue working with youth, either on his own or through an organization. “I’m interested in preparing kids for life,” he says. 

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

If you’ve hit 65, how are you feeling? If not, how are you preparing for this milestone? Join the conversation below.

Write to Clare Ansberry at clare.ansberry@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications

A graphic in an earlier version of this article incorrectly listed figures of median net worth of households in millions of dollars rather than thousands of dollars. (Corrected on Feb. 6)

​20. The Middle East could get even uglier, with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah ready to wage war on Israel

Excerpts:

And every day the group is allowed to grow stronger means a more painful war for Israel in the future.

Better to drop the gloves now, they say.

Better to do it now, with the border already cleared of civilians.

And better to do it with the country already mobilized for war.

The White House is doing everything possible to defuse this powder keg.

Diplomacy should be given every chance to succeed.

But it’s time to face facts.

Diplomacy may not prevail.

War may be inevitable.

Washington must ensure the Israelis have all the ammunition and weapons they need to win.

The clock is ticking.

The Middle East could get even uglier, with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah ready to wage war on Israel

By Social Links forJonathan Schanzer

Published Feb. 6, 2024, 6:28 p.m. ET

New York Post · by Jonathan Schanzer  · February 6, 2024

More On: hezbollah

Iranian proxies attack more US troops in Syria — as Blinken launches new crucial Mideast tour

To hit Iran, let’s back the democratic opposition — it worked in the Cold War

Biden’s lame Houthi ‘listing’ won’t deter the terrorists — or their backer, Iran

US unleashes retaliatory airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq after rebel assault that injured multiple American troops

A brutal war is looming between the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah and Israel.

The Iran-backed radicals began firing anti-tank missiles and drones at Israel Oct. 8, one day after Hamas carried out its mass slaughter of 1,200 Israelis.

Four months later, the attacks — more than 700 and counting — haven’t stopped.

Israel has gotten the better of Hezbollah in most of these exchanges, destroying the group’s strategic assets and killing nearly 200 well-trained fighters.

But it has been at a terrible price.

Nearly 100,000 Israeli citizens of communities along the border have been forced to flee their homes.

Admittedly, roughly that many Lebanese citizens have fled their homes, too.

But that’s of little consolation to the Israelis.

Hezbollah has achieved something meaningful.

And the Israelis are warning — justifiably — their patience is running out.

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Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently issued an ultimatum: Either Hezbollah moves its forces north of the Litani River, which runs laterally across the middle of Lebanon, or Israel will unleash the full force of its military.

The Israeli demand is buttressed by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls on Hezbollah to do exactly that.

But there are a few obstacles to restoring order.

For one, Hezbollah is not interested in withdrawing.

This is a group that exists for one reason: to wage war against Israel.

Nor are the group’s patrons in Iran interested in ordering the group to stand down.

see also

terrorists

US intelligence reportedly fears Hezbollah could attack America: ‘It is something to be worried about’

Hezbollah is the Islamic Republic’s most powerful proxy.

And while Tehran has yet to unleash Hezbollah to fight a full-blown war, the regime appears content to let this crisis escalate.

The specter of a nasty, multifront war in the Middle East during the American election cycle now has the Biden administration’s full attention.

The White House has dispatched its Lebanon envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Israel in a bid to end the standoff.

The French are trying to help, too.

Some reports suggest Hochstein is making progress toward a diplomatic solution.

But Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has reportedly rejected the Israeli and US demands that Hezbollah head north.

This reinforces what we already know: Iran’s terror proxy controls the Lebanese government.

It explains why Lebanon has collapsed both economically and politically in recent years.

In its current state, Lebanon can hardly afford another war.

The last battle between Israel and Hezbollah, in 2006, was devastating. Lebanon sustained significant damage and required massive international assistance to rebuild.

The looming war would likely be worse, with Israel vowing to enact its Dahiyeh Doctrine: Named after the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh under full Hezbollah control, it entails the total annihilation of every Hezbollah enclave.

The big difference between this looming battle and the last, though, is Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Thanks to Iran, the group has stockpiled an estimated 200,000 rockets and missiles.

More than 1,000 of those are precision-guided munitions, which can strike Israeli strategic infrastructure with lethal precision.

Hezbollah’s fighters are also more professionally trained than they were during the last tussle, having fought alongside the Russian and Iranian militaries in Syria.

see also

hamas

Hezbollah leader threatens to escalate his group’s fighting in ‘holy war,’ says US will have to ‘pay dearly’

In short, Israel would almost certainly sustain more damage and casualties than it did in 2006.

In fact, this Middle East war promises to be more brutal than any other in recent memory.

Nobody in Israel welcomes this, particularly while the fighting in Gaza grinds on.

But some Israeli officials believe it might be necessary.

They note that Hezbollah aggression continues unabated, and it necessitates a response.

And every day the group is allowed to grow stronger means a more painful war for Israel in the future.

Better to drop the gloves now, they say.

Better to do it now, with the border already cleared of civilians.

And better to do it with the country already mobilized for war.

The White House is doing everything possible to defuse this powder keg.

Diplomacy should be given every chance to succeed.

But it’s time to face facts.

Diplomacy may not prevail.

War may be inevitable.

Washington must ensure the Israelis have all the ammunition and weapons they need to win.

The clock is ticking.

Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Twitter: @JSchanzer

New York Post · by Social Links for Jonathan Schanzer View Author Archive Get author RSS feed · February 6, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com