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BAM MARKET WRAP
April 26, 2015
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"SLEEPING SINGLE IN A DOUBLE BED" - SORT OF
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 

 

After weakness last week, the markets rallied back this week.  In fact, the S&P rallied Friday to a hair above the trading range we have been mired in for several months.  This time the rally may hold as both the Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 have both broken to the upside over the last few weeks.  The Dow remains the laggard of the major indices.  While many earnings have disappointed both on the top revenue and bottom income lines, the markets have largely shrugged off the poor earnings.   With overseas bonds at near zero levels and with the liquidity provided by foreign governments needing a home, it appears that much of that money is finding its way into the US markets.  European and Asian markets have also rallied over the last few weeks though with a fair amount of volatility.  

 

WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

 

With the Fed scheduled to meet this week and another jobs report out on Friday that would give a barometer on the struggling economy, the coming week could have some volatility and swings.  With the S&P resting at the top of the months long trading range, the bulls will be looking to defend the recent advance.  Market risk remains elevated.  At best stocks are fairly valued and, at worst, significantly over-valued.  The US economy continues to sputter but remains the best of several bad economies around the world.  Despite the state of the economies, government induced liquidity throughout the world is continuing to push markets up.  Nobody knows how all this will end as the situation is unprecedented but we continue to worry that it could end very badly.  For now, however, the markets are responding to the liquidity and, generally, holding steady or slowly moving up.  May is generally a good market month so we could continue to see higher markets over the next several weeks.  


 

HOW WE ARE DOING

 

Our portfolios have largely moved sideways over the last couple of weeks.  We were stopped out of our positions in both the dollar and US treasuries.   While we still like both of these investments we remain disciplined in our sell signals.  I would not be surprised if we are back in one or both of these after the recent weakness runs its course.   We have our eye on a number of areas including Europe and Japan (lots of liquidity finding its way into those markets), energy, and the tech heavy Nasdaq, which moved to an all-time high last week and doesn't appear as tired as the other indices.  There are a few opportunities but risk remains elevated.  We will continue to seek out good risk adjusted returns.  

 

 

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Tidbits
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CHINA BOOM - China produces and consumes about 60 percent of the world's cement  To put China's massive 21st century construction splurge and concrete consumption into perspective, between 2011 and 2013, China consumed 6.6 gigatons of concrete - that's more than the U.S. used in the entire 20th century. Look at what the U.S. built between 1901 and 2000: all those skyscrapers, the Interstate, the Hoover Dam, the list goes on and on but all that concrete only amounted to 4.5 gigatons. (source:  Forbes Magazine).

 

TIME FLIES - The S&P 500 bull market that began on 3/09/09 is now in its 74th month.  The average bull market for the stock index since 1950 (including the current bull) has lasted 59 months (source: BAM Research). 

 

WHAT'S NEXT? - Inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) has advanced +4.1% per year over the 50 years ending 2/28/15, +2.0% per year over the 10 years ending 2/28/15 and has been flat (i.e., up 0.0%) over the 1 year ending 2/28/15 (source: Department of Labor).

 

NOT UP TO SNUFF - The 75-year (1940-2014) average growth rate of the US economy (i.e., GDP annual growth rate) is +3.6% per year.  However, the actual growth rate of the US economy has reached +3.6% or greater in only 1 of the last 14 calendar years (source: Commerce Department).

 

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Our family was hit hard by the March ice storms that moved through Nashville last month.  We had 5 rooms affected including our hardwood floors.  We moved out of our house a week ago to get our hardwood floors replaced and redone.  It is not the staycation many envision.  Our insurance company was good enough to give us two rooms at a nice extended living hotel in Franklin.  We have a girls room and a boys room - Kelly and Sarah sharing a room and me and Bam sharing the other!  As much as I love Bam he doesn't make the best of roommates - he snores and wanders a bit at night!  However, he has done pretty well and I can't complain, as he still remains the best dog we could ever envision.  In fact, he met a new friend last week at the vet.  While Kelly was in the waiting area, Barbara Mandrell walked in and instantly fell in love with Bam.  Getting down on the floor she petted and talked to him for several minutes.  Kelly thought she was going to ask  for Bam's autograph!   We have always said Bam is more popular than we are. 

 

It is conference season and I was in Boston last week and will be in California next week.  I always come back with several new insights and thoughts and this year should prove no different.  I am also glad to have a bed to myself! 

 

Thank you for your continued trust.  Please let either of us know if you have any questions or concerns.

 

Sam and Bo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.

 

 

 

 

     

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  

 

RECENT POSTS

 

 

 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

 

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

 

 

 

 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright ? 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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