Happy Thursday!

I hope everyone had an amazing 4th of July weekend! Now that we're back in the swing of things, get ready for some exciting market insights.

June's data is particularly interesting because it marks a full year since the Fed started raising interest rates and prices began to decline in the Austin area. When we compare June 2023 to last year, we see a convergence in year-over-year pricing, and months of inventory, and we expect that to continue.

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Remember, real estate is hyperlocal and situational, so if you need any guidance or have questions, feel free to reach out anytime. Let's dive in!

Here we go, from this month and moving forward we expect to see the year-over-year price gaps to converge, and 2023 for the numbers to surpass 2022 this second half of the year. As we look at the data I pulled directly from the MLS yesterday afternoon (the graph above,) we can see we are no longer in double-digit declines year over year!

Austin is turning the corner on Year over Year price appreciation.

Another important note on this June vs Last June is the number of Pending contracts this year surpassed June of 2022 by 18% in the MSA and 12% in the City, this leading indicator leads us to believe closed contracts in July should also look good when comparing them to last July.

We're Still looking at Month over Month data too. The number of Sales dipped a bit from May which was expected, but only by 10% in the MSA and 11% in the City. Yet still well above the number of sales done in any other month this year.

Prices continued to increase nominally in both the city and the MSA, Days on the Market and months of inventory fell from May, and New listing increased while pending contracts remained about the same in the city and showed a 3% decline in the MSA.

Highlights (Month-Over-Month)

• Avg Days to Sell dropped again in the MSA by 3.5%% from 57 to down to 55. The City of Austin saw a decline in Days on the Market as well by 2.4%, from 41 to 40.
• Median Sold Price increased in the MSA by 3.74% and +5.5% in the city.
• Pending Contracts fell by -3.5% in the MSA and stayed the same in the city. <1%
• Months of Inventory in the Metro and the city both stayed the same 3.3 Months in the MSA and 3.5 in the city
• New listings Increased by 2.55% in the MSA and up by -8.7% in the City,

The big takeaway is that prices are still on the rise month over month. Not only that, but we're getting closer to 2022 price levels year over year, and we expect to surpass them in the coming months. We're hopeful this means positive appreciation is on the horizon before the year ends!

Interest rates. While they're still higher than we'd like, we anticipate them dropping into the high 5% range by the end of the year. However, here's the catch: prices are also expected to be higher than last year by that point.

Buyers, desirable homes are still receiving multiple offers, although not as many as in the past two years. You've got a choice to make: wait for lower rates with that comes more competition and higher prices, or jump in now with higher rates, lower prices, and less competition. Who knows, you might even be able to refinance when rates come back down! MCC Credit limits have changed and rate buy-downs can certainly help relieve some of that rate impact on your monthly payment.

Sellers, here's the deal. Your home may not attract as much competition as it did two years ago, but If you price it competitively, stage it right, and market it effectively, it will sell. Pay attention to small repairs and staging it's no longer the days of just putting a sign in the yard and picking the highest offer.

The real estate landscape is changing, but with the right strategy, and advisors buyers, sellers, and investors can have success in this market.

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