Good morning!

A crucial week of labor market data will keep investors busy during a holiday-shortened trading week that marks the start of the month, the third quarter, and second half of 2024. Here's what's happening...

• The U.S. jobs report for June, set for release on Friday, is expected to reveal a continued slowdown in the job market. Analysts expect that 188,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added to the US economy in the past month, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4%. In May, the US economy added 272,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate saw a slight increase to 4%. The report is closely watched for signs of cooling in the labor market that could help make a case for interest-rate cuts. Encouraging signs that inflation is slowing toward the Federal Reserve's target, plus signs of a slowdown in the economy have helped spurred hopes for a policy pivot.*

• Since 1928, July has emerged as the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 1.7% during the month, with positive returns more than 60% of the time, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 1.4% gain in July since 1897. Despite these seasonal tailwinds, strategists warn that this year might be different due to a divergence in stock performance, particularly in June, where tech stocks led gains while others lagged. The Nasdaq Composite, which typically begins its worst four months starting in July, saw a nearly 6% increase in June, outperforming the Dow’s 1.1% gain. This divergence, along with the fact that nearly all of July’s gains have historically occurred in the first 13 trading days of the month, suggests a potential summer stock pullback. **

• Oil prices are rising again, as traders take stock of mounting geopolitical risks as well as a hurricane in the Caribbean. Record-breaking Hurricane Beryl is intensifying as it churns through the Caribbean, threatening flooding rains and storm surge. Though experts say it’s unlikely that the storm will hit US oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico, there’s still a chance of disruption later this week. Such a severe storm this early in the year may portend a serious hurricane season to come, which could halt offshore production or even disrupt refinery operations in the Gulf Coast and subsequently drive up prices at the pump. As well as the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, France's Marine Le Pen’s National Rally dominated the first round of legislative elections, adding to political risk in the region. OPEC+ has helped shore up prices by saying that any plan to add barrels back to the market will be dependent on market conditions. ***

The financial advisors at Miramontes Capital diligently keep up with anything that can impact our clients' finances and tap into more than 175 years of combined investment experience. We do our all to keep your money protected and growing. If you think you might benefit from our financial experience and oversight, contact us today for a FREE, no-obligation consultation. Just call (800) 460-1595. Until next week...

Investment Advisory Services offered through Miramontes Capital, LLC. Securities offered through Balanced Security Planning, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Miramontes Capital, LLC and Balanced Security Planning, Inc. are separate companies affiliated through common control. This newsletter is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Miramontes Capital, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Miramontes Capital, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.